The Undefeated after week eleven

[SWC75]

The Undefeated 2014

It’s October and so I will once again chart the future challenges of the undefeated in major college football. Once November comes I’ll include the one-loss teams. We now have a four team playoff, (maybe someday we’ll move to 8 with auto bids for the Power Five champions), so more of these teams will continue to have a chance until the very end of the regular season. I’ll limit my coverage to ranked teams. (For fun I’ll also keep track of the teams eligible for the Tidy Bowl, which decides the worst team in the country, although I’ll not spend as much time on them. I think I’ll do a four team playoff for that, too, this year.)

A note on rankings: the first is the ranking of the College Football Playoff Committee, then the AP (writer’s) poll, the USA Today (coach’s) poll and finally the ESPN power ranking. The College Football Playoff Committee ranking is from last week and doesn’t include this past weekend’s results.

MISSISSIPPI STATE 9-0 (357-177) #1 in all polls. Versus ranked teams: 99 points
BYE
Sat 11/15 at #5-4-3-5 Alabama (8-1)
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt (3-7)
Sat 11/29 at #10 Mississippi (8-2)

Comment The Bulldogs keep rolling along. But with games at both Alabama and Mississippi coming up, I think they are likely to lose that goose egg at the end of their record before the Final Four is voted upon.

FLORIDA STATE 9-0 (341-202) #3 -2 -2-2. Versus ranked teams: 47 points.
Sat 11/15 at Miami (6-3)
Sat 11/22 Boston College (6-4)
Sat 11/29 Florida (5-3)

Comment: I’ve changed my mind on the Noles. Because they were playing close games this year and not blowing people away, I’ve assumed that they were going to lose at some point during the regular season. But it’s obvious this year is about meeting challenges, not about dominating from the opening kickoff, and that is impressive in itself. They’ve got a couple of rivalry games coming up and Boston College is pretty good but I’m now going to be surprised if they lose any of those games. But I’ll still be surprised to see them repeat as national champion. Their dominant team won by the skin of their teeth in the championship game. I see this team coming up short if they have to take on an SEC champion again.


The one-loss teams:


ALABAMA 8-1 (318-119) #5-4-3-5 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 90 points.
BYE
Sat 11/15 #1 Mississippi State (9-0)
Sat 11/22 West Carolina (6-4 in FCS)
Sat 11/29 #9 Auburn (7-2)

Comment: The Tide never seems to be out of the national championship race. They again found a way to survive vs. LSU. But they will have some serious challenges with Mississippi State and Auburn and maybe an SEC title game. But a 12-1 finish would not be a surprise.

OREGON 9-1 (460-250) #2-3-4-3 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 91 points.
BYE
Sat 11/22 Colorado (2-8)
Sat 11/29 at Oregon State (4-5)

Comment: The Ducks aren’t invincible but I think they have had their loss for the year, (at least the regular season). I’ll be surprised if they aren’t in the Final Four.The Quack attack should make things fun, even if their record against the SEC isn’t good.

TEXAS CHRISTIAN 8-1 (425-201) #4-5-5-4 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 135 points
Sat 11/15 at Kansas (3-6)
BYE
Thurs 11/27 at Texas (5-5)
Sat 12/6 Iowa State (2-7)

Comment: The Horned Frogs should roll to 11-1 but Baylor might do the same and that 58-61 game may prove to be very big, both in the conference and the national scene. What if TCU winds up in the Final Four and Baylor doesn’t? There’s no title game in the Big 12 anymore. That’s a double-edged sword. It’s one less risk to their won-loss record but a lost opportunity to add to their reputation by beating another good team. But maybe they won’t need to beat anyone else.

BAYLOR 8-1 (451-189) #7-6-6-6 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 65 points.
BYE
Sat 11/22 Oklahoma State (5-4)
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (3-6)
Sat 12/6 #13-13-13-12 Kansas State (7-2)

Comments: They will continue to light up scoreboards but they still have to beat K-State. They are the #13 ranked team by the committee and here we are getting to the point where it seems unlikely that Baylor or anyone ranked below them could force their way up into the top four with less than a month to go.

OHIO STATE 8-1 (414-196) #8-8-7-8 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 30 points
Sat 11/15 at #25-UR-UR Minnesota (7-2)
Sat 11/22 Indiana (3-6)
Sat 11/29 Michigan (5-5)

Comment: It’s strange to see the Buckeyes ranked this low with a 8-1 record but they didn’t earn any points vs. ranked teams until they beat Michigan State. Put that with the fact that they lost their Heisman trophy candidate quarterback, Braxton Miller, (even though his replacement, J T. Barrett, has been playing well) and they are in a hole that’s too deep to crawl out of.

ARIZONA STATE 8-1 (330-224) #6-7-8-7. Versus ranked teams: 85 points
Sat 11/15 at Oregon State (4-5)
Sat 11/22 Washington State (3-7)
Fri 11/28 at #14-17-18-17 Arizona (7-2)

Comments: The Sun Devils will sneak up on people but they beat Notre Dame and if they can do the same to arch-rival Arizona and then Oregon in the Pac 12 title game, they will be very visible. That’s a tall order but if Arizona could win at Oregon it doesn’t seem impossible.

NEBRASKA 8-1 (364-177) #16-15-11-15. Versus ranked teams: 11 points.
Sat 11/15 at #20-22-22-21 Wisconsin (7-2)
Sat 11/22 #25-UR-UR-UR Minnesota (7-2)
Fri 11/28 at Iowa (6-3)

Comment: it’s a comment on the Big Ten that Nebraska’s last three opponents and they have a combined record of 28-8 but none of those games will matter.

DUKE 8-1 (313-164) #21-19-19-20 in the polls. Versus ranked teams: 10 points
Sat 11/15 Virginia Tech (4-5)
Thu 11/20 North Carolina (4-5)
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest (2-7)

Comments: Nobody is talking about Duke, even though they rose from the long dead last year to win their division and go to the ACC title game and then on to a bowl game. They will likely be favored to go 11-1 and again win their division. So why are they ranked way down at #24? Their non-conference schedule consisted of Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. And their ACC division contains no ranked teams. Marshall is ranked above them. But if they should upset Florida State in the ACC title game…but they won’t.


We are now down, ironically, to two undefeated teams, which would be prefect for the old BCS system if they both ran the table, although I don’t think either will. We haven’t ended the regular season with four undefeated teams since 2009- but we had 5 then. Fans of the old BCS are probably rooting for there to be two unbeatens so they can ask: “What we need these two other teams for?” Fans of an eight team playoff, (like me) will be rooting for there to be enough one loss teams that the combined total of them and the undefeated teams will exceed 5. Here are the total undefeated and one loss teams, year by year for the last decade:

2004 4-3, 2005 2-4, 2006 2-4, 2007 1-2, 2008 2-7, 2009 5-1, 2010 3-6, 2011 1-5, 2012 2-5 and 2013 1-9, (yes, 9). That’s an average of 2- 5. There’s been more than four every year but one and in that season, we’d have had to dip into the two loss teams to fill out a top four. And there’d be a lot more than one of them. This year there are still 2 undefeated teams and 8 one loss teams among the power conferences, with four weeks left in the regular season.

The notion that offense has become more important than defense is supported by this stat: the ten teams noted above have given up an average of 21 points per game but they are a combined 82-9. The best scoring defense is Alabama’s, which gives up 13 points per game. The days of single digit defenses are gone.

 

[SWC75]

THE PESCI BOWL

I decided to inaugurate a third tier of championships. Why not have the top mid majors, (the best teams not in the “power five” conferences), play off? They aren’t going to make the Final Four and they aren’t in FCS, (which, as 1AA, was originally intended for teams like this). What shall we call it? Somehow, into my mind flashed the image of Joe Pesci, who always plays those vertically challenged but feisty guys. Joe could entertain at halftime with his funny stories.

There is one unbeaten mid-major:

MARSHALL 9-0 (430-149) #UR-21-21-25 in both polls. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/15 Rice (6-3)
Sat 11/22 at Alabama-Birmingham (5-5)
Friday 11/28 Western Kentucky (4-5)

Comment: The Thundering Herd will stampede through the rest of their schedule as the best “mid major” in the game. They are a cinch for the Pesci Bowl playoffs. A match with East Carolina, whom they lost to 59-65 two years ago and beat 64-61 in the 2001 GMAC bowl could be interesting. They have no chance for the national championship, unlike their days in 1AA.


And there is only a single one loss mid-major:

COLORADO STATE 9-1 #UR-UR-25-UR (349-234) unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
BYE
Sat 11/22 New Mexico (3-6)
Fri 11/28 at Air Force (7-2)

Comment: The Rams are a cinch to travel to Colorado Springs 10-1. They have their best team since the Sonny Lubick days.

That means we’ll have to go to the two loss teams to fill out a mid-major Final Four:

AIR FORCE 7-2 (285-198) unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/15 Nevada (6-3)
Fri 11/21 at San Diego State (5-4)
Fri 11/28 Colorado State #UR-UR-25 (9-1)

Comment: Nevada can be feisty but the flyboys have a good shot at being 9-2 going into the Colorado State, which they have at home. It’s their best team since the Fisher De Berry days.

BOISE STATE 7-2 (339-269) Unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/15 San Diego State (5-4)
Sat 11/22 at Wyoming (4-6)
Sat 11/29 Utah State (7-3)

Comments: They haven’t made much noise the last couple of seasons but these guys are still around. They aren’t as good as they were and they haven’t beaten anybody good but they are still winning football games.

EAST CAROLINA 6-2 (287-184) ranked #23-UR-UR-UR. Versus ranked teams: 16 points
Thu 11/13 at Cincinnati (5-3)
Sat 11/22 Tulane (3-6)
Fri 11/28 at Tulsa (2-7)
Thu 12/4 Central Florida (5-3)

Comment: The Pirates have clinched what used to be the Big East. Their most impressive wins, 28-21 over then #17 Virginia Tech and 70-41 over a North Carolina team that is giving up big numbers to everybody, seem a bit tainted now. They’ve looked kind of pedestrian in beating South Florida 28-17 and Connecticut 31-21.Now they’ve basically given away a game at Temple. They’ve got road games vs. two 5-3 teams. But they still might have a shot at the Pesci Bowl, (if there was one).

GEORGIA SOUTHERN 8-2 (428-213) Unranked . Versus unranked teams: 0 points
Sat 11/15 at Navy (4-5)
BYE
Sat 11/29 Louisiana-Monroe (3-6)

Comment: This is where Paul Johnson learned the triple option. This is also one of those schools that won national championships in FCS and emigrated to FBS, where their kids will never have a chance to win another, (others: Central Michigan, Marshall, Massachusetts, Western Kentucky, Troy, Appalachian State). Why? I’d like to see the non-power five FBS schools and the FCS schools joined into one division. There’s little difference between them and they should all have a championship they can win. This team will be 10-2 if they can handle Navy, (another team Johnson once coached).

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 7-2 (308-231) Unranked. Versus ranked teams: 0 points.
Tue 11/11 Toledo (5-3)
Tue 11/18 at Ohio U. (4-5)
Fri 11/28 at Western Michigan (6-3)

Comments: What the heck kind of schedule is THAT? Not a single weekend game? The Huskies have been one of those Pesci-feisty mid-majors and should be able to handle it.


Overall: Marshall is a cinch and the Air Force-Colorado State winner has the inside track on another bid. Boise and ECU still have some credibility left, more than Georgia Southern does at this level.

 

[SWC75]

THE Ty-De-Bowl

This is a four team playoff to determine who is the worst team in the country, The losers of the semi-finals move on to the “Ty-De-Bowl ”, where the Ty-De-Bowl guy entertains at halftime with his ukulele.
(He did have one in some of the ads I remember)

There’s only one winless team in all of FBS:

SOUTHERN METHODIST 0-8 (77-374)
Sat 11/15 South Florida (3-6)
Sat 11/22 at Central Florida (5-3)
Fri 11/28 Houston (5-4)
Sat 12/6 at Connecticut (2-7)

Comment: the Mustangs are the one truly terrible team in major college football. They say Mack Brown is after this job. Really Mac? You couldn’t beat BYU’s nine 4-5 star recruits with your forty-four when you were at Texas and yet you want to take over this mess and make it your own?


The one-win teams:

GEORGIA STATE (1-9) 231-438
BYE
Sat 11/22 at #19-18-17-19 Clemson (7-2)
Sat 11/29 Texas State (5-4)

Comment: The Sun Belt is an entire conference of teams that obviously have no business being in Division 1. How clever to put them all in the same conference so they can play each other and maintain the illusion. The Panthers won their opener by a single point over Abilene Christian, (an FCS team) and have crapped out ever since.

IDAHO 1-8 (230-344)
Sat 11/15 Troy (2-8)
BYE
Sat 11/29 at Appalachian State (4-5)

Comments: The Vandals are not really that bad. They’ve lost games by 5, 7 and a couple my 12 points. They are a cut above your classic Ty-De-Bowl team. Playing Troy should keep them out of this year’s classic.

KENT STATE 1-8 (132-265)
Wed 11/12 at Bowling Green (6-3)
Wed 11/19 at Buffalo (3-6)
Tue 11/25 Akron (4-5)

Comment: All you need to know about the Golden Flashes is that they couldn’t beat Miami of Ohio, (sorry Accurater II- I couldn’t resist). Another bizarre MAC schedule. Yeah, they get on national TV- but who’s watching? It must drive the coaches crazy to prepare teams for Tuesday and Wednesday games. These kids get beat up and have to be in class the next day.

Overall: The first ever Ty-De-Bowl playoffs look like they’ll be a battle between the AAC and the Sun Belt, unless Kent State can sneak in there somewhere. Stay tuned!