SWC75
Bored Historian
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It’s October and so I will once again chart the future challenges of the undefeated in major college football. Once November comes I’ll include the one-loss teams. We now have a four team playoff, (maybe someday we’ll move to 8 with auto bids for the Power Five champions), so more of these teams will continue to have a chance until the very end of the regular season. I’ll limit my coverage to ranked teams. (For fun I’ll also keep track of the teams eligible for the Tidy Bowl, which decides the worst team in the country, although I’ll not spend as much time on them. I think I’ll do a four team playoff for that, too, this year.)
FLORIDA STATE 5-0-0 (196-104) #1 both polls
Sat 10/11 at Syracuse (2-3)
Sat 10/18 #6-5 Notre Dame (5-0)
Thu 10/30 at Louisville (5-1)
Sat 11/8 Virginia (4-2)
Sat 11/15 at Miami (3-3)
Sat 11/22 Boston College (3-2)
Sat 11/29 Florida (3-1)
Comment: This is not last year’s team and they aren’t going to run the table playing as they have, even if their next game will be a walk-over. They will probably have a conference championship game to play after the above schedule. We’ll see where they are then. Maybe they will improve as the year progresses. Their schedule is not as challenging as their SEC pursuers, who may bump each other off.
AUBURN 5-0 (210-72) #2 in both polls
Sat 10/11 at #3-6 Mississippi State (5-0)
BYE
Sat 10/25 South Carolina (3-3)
Sat 11/1 at #3-4 Mississippi (5-0)
Sat 11/8 #14 Texas A&M (5-1)
Sat 11/15 at #13-10 Georgia (4-1)
Sat 11/22 Samford (3-2 in FCS)
Sat 11/29 at #7 Alabama (4-1)
Comment: The War Eagles have arguably been the most impressive team in the country, 9relaly since late last year), but their schedule is difficult even by SEC standards. If they get through this and then the S EC title game unblemished, that will be truly impressive.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 5-0 (212-97) tied for #3 in the writer’s poll, #6 in the coach’s poll
Sat 11/11 #2 Auburn (5-0)
BYE
Sat 10/25 at Kentucky (4-1)
Sat 11/1 Arkansas (3-2)
Sat 11/8 UT Martin (1-5 in FCS)
Sat 11/15 at #7 Alabama (4-1)
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt (1-5)
Sat 11/29 at #3-4 Mississippi (5-0)
Comment: If Auburn hasn’t been the most impressive team, it’s surely been State, with their blow-out wins at LSU and over Texas A&M. But they have their challenges, as well with two undefeated teams, a surprising Kentucky and Alabama. But I like their odds of running the table over Auburn. The variance in their ranking illustrates the difficulty of figuring out this season.
MISSISSIPPI 5-0 (179-51) Tied for 3rd in the writer’s poll with their arch-rival, Mississippi State, #4 in the coach’s poll.
Sat 10/11 at #14 Texas A&M (5-1)
Sat 10/18 Tennessee (2-3)
Sat 10/25 at Louisiana State (4-2)
Sat 11/1 #2 Auburn (5-0)
Sat 11/8 Presbyterian (3-2 in FCS)
BYE
Sat 11/22 Arkansas (3-2)
Sat 11/29 #3-6 Mississippi State (5-0)
Comment: I think it would be great if the “Egg Bowl” were a battle of undefeated teams ranked in the top 5 and looking ahead to a possible spot in the four team playoffs. A combination of new blood and an old rivalry. (I also like it when teams that were good when SU was really good in the 50’s and 60’s do well: it suggests we can be good in this era, too.) I think the Rebels have a slightly tougher road than the Bulldogs.
BAYLOR 5-0 (255-62) #5 writer’s, #3 coaches
Sat 10/11 #9-12 Texas Christian (4-0)
Sat 10/18 at West Virginia (3-2)
BYE
Sat 11/1 Kansas (2-3)
Sat 11/8 at #11-9 Oklahoma (4-1)
BYE
Sat 11/22 #16-18 Oklahoma State (4-1)
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (2-3)
Sat 12/6 #17-16 Kansas State (4-1)
Comment: The Bears, as usual, have rolled up big numbers vs. lesser competition but that didn’t prevent them from handling Texas 28-7. They’ve got some challenges, playing four ranked teams and a West Virginia bunch who can also light up the scoreboard. These point a minute bunches then to have at least one game where they short-circuit. I’ll be surprised if they wind up with the golden goose egg in the loss column.
NOTRE DAME 5-0 (157-60) #6 writers, #5 coach’s
Sat 10/11 North Carolina 2-3
Sat 10/18 at #1 Florida State 5-0
BYE
Sat 11/1 at Navy 2-4
Sat 11/8 at #20 Arizona State 4-1
Sat 11/15 Northwestern 3-2
Sat 11/22 Louisville 5-1
Sat 11/29 at Southern California 3-2
Comment: If the Irish beat the Seminoles, (as they might well do), they might shoot to the top of this and never be headed. But those last four opponents could make things interesting.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 4-0 (171-54) 9th in writer’s, 1th in coaches
Sat 10/11 at #5-3 Baylor 5-0
Sat 10/18 #16 Oklahoma State 4-1
Sat 10/25 Texas Tech 2-3
Sat 11/1 at West Virginia 3-2
Sat 11/8 #17 Kansas State 4-1
Sat 11/15 at Kansas 2-3
Thu 11/27 at Texas 2-3
Sat 12/6 Iowa State 1-4
Comments: TCU is back after a rocky start in the Big 12. They can defend, as they always have and now they can score, too. If they can stay unbeaten through Kansas State, they’ve got a good chance to run the table.
ARIZONA 5-0 (199-133) #10 writer’s, #13 coach’s
Sat 10/11 Southern California 3-2
BYE
Sat 10/25 at Washington State 2-4
Sat 11/1 at #18-17 UCLA 4-1
Sat 11/8 Colorado 2-4
Sat 11/15 Washington 4-1
Sat 11/22 at #24-UR Utah 4-1
Fri 11/28 #20 Arizona State 4-1
Comments: I think Arizona is a good team that had a great night against Oregon. They have to play four 4-1 teams and at least tone of them will knock them off.
GEORGIA TECH 5-0 (173-119) #23 writer’s, #22 coach’s
Sat 10/11 Duke 4-1
Sat 10/18 at North Carolina 2-3
Sat 10/25 at Pittsburgh 3-3
Sat 11/1 Virginia 4-2
Sat 11/8 at North Carolina State 4-2
Sat 11/15 UR-#25 Clemson 3-2
Sat 11/29 at #13-10 Georgia 4-1
Comments: The Yellow Jackets are ranked pretty far down to climb into the top four and will play some good teams but they won’t play Florida State unless it’s the ACC title game.
General comments: Wouldn’t it be fun if we wound up with 5-6 one loss teams and the committee has to find out how to fit them into a four team playoffs? The top 5-6 teams are usually all national title contenders with the teams ranked 5-6 having lost more recently than the teams above them such that they had less time to climb back up toward the top in the rankings. It could lead to an 8 team playoff, which I think is optimal. However things work out, you will find that there are more games that matter regarding the national championship than before, contrary to the old “the regular season is a signal elimination tournament” theory. The regular season will become more meaningful, not less.
THE TIDY BOWL
Amazingly, only four teams, none from power conferences, are still winless:
Idaho 0-5 They will play Troy on 11/15 and also have games against 2-4 New Mexico State and 1-4 Appalachian State
Kent State 0-5 They play UMASS on Saturday. They also play 1-5 Miami of Ohio and 2-3 Army
Massachusetts 0-6 They play Kent State on Saturday. They also play Eastern Michigan and Ball State, both 1-4
Troy 0-5 They will play Idaho on 11/15. They also play 2-4 New Mexico State and App State and Georgia State, both 1-4.
Comment: All four teams are from two conferences, the MAC and the Sun Belt, both full of teams that arguably belong in FCS and were once there. There are only two power conference teams who have only one win, Vanderbilt (1-5) and Iowa State (1-4). That’s a tribute to the balance in those conferences but also to their scheduling, which is full of MAC and Sun Belt-type bottom feeders. Vandy’s one win is over UMASS. The Cyclones did manage to beat Iowa.
FLORIDA STATE 5-0-0 (196-104) #1 both polls
Sat 10/11 at Syracuse (2-3)
Sat 10/18 #6-5 Notre Dame (5-0)
Thu 10/30 at Louisville (5-1)
Sat 11/8 Virginia (4-2)
Sat 11/15 at Miami (3-3)
Sat 11/22 Boston College (3-2)
Sat 11/29 Florida (3-1)
Comment: This is not last year’s team and they aren’t going to run the table playing as they have, even if their next game will be a walk-over. They will probably have a conference championship game to play after the above schedule. We’ll see where they are then. Maybe they will improve as the year progresses. Their schedule is not as challenging as their SEC pursuers, who may bump each other off.
AUBURN 5-0 (210-72) #2 in both polls
Sat 10/11 at #3-6 Mississippi State (5-0)
BYE
Sat 10/25 South Carolina (3-3)
Sat 11/1 at #3-4 Mississippi (5-0)
Sat 11/8 #14 Texas A&M (5-1)
Sat 11/15 at #13-10 Georgia (4-1)
Sat 11/22 Samford (3-2 in FCS)
Sat 11/29 at #7 Alabama (4-1)
Comment: The War Eagles have arguably been the most impressive team in the country, 9relaly since late last year), but their schedule is difficult even by SEC standards. If they get through this and then the S EC title game unblemished, that will be truly impressive.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 5-0 (212-97) tied for #3 in the writer’s poll, #6 in the coach’s poll
Sat 11/11 #2 Auburn (5-0)
BYE
Sat 10/25 at Kentucky (4-1)
Sat 11/1 Arkansas (3-2)
Sat 11/8 UT Martin (1-5 in FCS)
Sat 11/15 at #7 Alabama (4-1)
Sat 11/22 Vanderbilt (1-5)
Sat 11/29 at #3-4 Mississippi (5-0)
Comment: If Auburn hasn’t been the most impressive team, it’s surely been State, with their blow-out wins at LSU and over Texas A&M. But they have their challenges, as well with two undefeated teams, a surprising Kentucky and Alabama. But I like their odds of running the table over Auburn. The variance in their ranking illustrates the difficulty of figuring out this season.
MISSISSIPPI 5-0 (179-51) Tied for 3rd in the writer’s poll with their arch-rival, Mississippi State, #4 in the coach’s poll.
Sat 10/11 at #14 Texas A&M (5-1)
Sat 10/18 Tennessee (2-3)
Sat 10/25 at Louisiana State (4-2)
Sat 11/1 #2 Auburn (5-0)
Sat 11/8 Presbyterian (3-2 in FCS)
BYE
Sat 11/22 Arkansas (3-2)
Sat 11/29 #3-6 Mississippi State (5-0)
Comment: I think it would be great if the “Egg Bowl” were a battle of undefeated teams ranked in the top 5 and looking ahead to a possible spot in the four team playoffs. A combination of new blood and an old rivalry. (I also like it when teams that were good when SU was really good in the 50’s and 60’s do well: it suggests we can be good in this era, too.) I think the Rebels have a slightly tougher road than the Bulldogs.
BAYLOR 5-0 (255-62) #5 writer’s, #3 coaches
Sat 10/11 #9-12 Texas Christian (4-0)
Sat 10/18 at West Virginia (3-2)
BYE
Sat 11/1 Kansas (2-3)
Sat 11/8 at #11-9 Oklahoma (4-1)
BYE
Sat 11/22 #16-18 Oklahoma State (4-1)
Sat 11/29 Texas Tech (2-3)
Sat 12/6 #17-16 Kansas State (4-1)
Comment: The Bears, as usual, have rolled up big numbers vs. lesser competition but that didn’t prevent them from handling Texas 28-7. They’ve got some challenges, playing four ranked teams and a West Virginia bunch who can also light up the scoreboard. These point a minute bunches then to have at least one game where they short-circuit. I’ll be surprised if they wind up with the golden goose egg in the loss column.
NOTRE DAME 5-0 (157-60) #6 writers, #5 coach’s
Sat 10/11 North Carolina 2-3
Sat 10/18 at #1 Florida State 5-0
BYE
Sat 11/1 at Navy 2-4
Sat 11/8 at #20 Arizona State 4-1
Sat 11/15 Northwestern 3-2
Sat 11/22 Louisville 5-1
Sat 11/29 at Southern California 3-2
Comment: If the Irish beat the Seminoles, (as they might well do), they might shoot to the top of this and never be headed. But those last four opponents could make things interesting.
TEXAS CHRISTIAN 4-0 (171-54) 9th in writer’s, 1th in coaches
Sat 10/11 at #5-3 Baylor 5-0
Sat 10/18 #16 Oklahoma State 4-1
Sat 10/25 Texas Tech 2-3
Sat 11/1 at West Virginia 3-2
Sat 11/8 #17 Kansas State 4-1
Sat 11/15 at Kansas 2-3
Thu 11/27 at Texas 2-3
Sat 12/6 Iowa State 1-4
Comments: TCU is back after a rocky start in the Big 12. They can defend, as they always have and now they can score, too. If they can stay unbeaten through Kansas State, they’ve got a good chance to run the table.
ARIZONA 5-0 (199-133) #10 writer’s, #13 coach’s
Sat 10/11 Southern California 3-2
BYE
Sat 10/25 at Washington State 2-4
Sat 11/1 at #18-17 UCLA 4-1
Sat 11/8 Colorado 2-4
Sat 11/15 Washington 4-1
Sat 11/22 at #24-UR Utah 4-1
Fri 11/28 #20 Arizona State 4-1
Comments: I think Arizona is a good team that had a great night against Oregon. They have to play four 4-1 teams and at least tone of them will knock them off.
GEORGIA TECH 5-0 (173-119) #23 writer’s, #22 coach’s
Sat 10/11 Duke 4-1
Sat 10/18 at North Carolina 2-3
Sat 10/25 at Pittsburgh 3-3
Sat 11/1 Virginia 4-2
Sat 11/8 at North Carolina State 4-2
Sat 11/15 UR-#25 Clemson 3-2
Sat 11/29 at #13-10 Georgia 4-1
Comments: The Yellow Jackets are ranked pretty far down to climb into the top four and will play some good teams but they won’t play Florida State unless it’s the ACC title game.
General comments: Wouldn’t it be fun if we wound up with 5-6 one loss teams and the committee has to find out how to fit them into a four team playoffs? The top 5-6 teams are usually all national title contenders with the teams ranked 5-6 having lost more recently than the teams above them such that they had less time to climb back up toward the top in the rankings. It could lead to an 8 team playoff, which I think is optimal. However things work out, you will find that there are more games that matter regarding the national championship than before, contrary to the old “the regular season is a signal elimination tournament” theory. The regular season will become more meaningful, not less.
THE TIDY BOWL
Amazingly, only four teams, none from power conferences, are still winless:
Idaho 0-5 They will play Troy on 11/15 and also have games against 2-4 New Mexico State and 1-4 Appalachian State
Kent State 0-5 They play UMASS on Saturday. They also play 1-5 Miami of Ohio and 2-3 Army
Massachusetts 0-6 They play Kent State on Saturday. They also play Eastern Michigan and Ball State, both 1-4
Troy 0-5 They will play Idaho on 11/15. They also play 2-4 New Mexico State and App State and Georgia State, both 1-4.
Comment: All four teams are from two conferences, the MAC and the Sun Belt, both full of teams that arguably belong in FCS and were once there. There are only two power conference teams who have only one win, Vanderbilt (1-5) and Iowa State (1-4). That’s a tribute to the balance in those conferences but also to their scheduling, which is full of MAC and Sun Belt-type bottom feeders. Vandy’s one win is over UMASS. The Cyclones did manage to beat Iowa.
