The Undefeated - Week 11 | Syracusefan.com

The Undefeated - Week 11

SWC75

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This is the point of the season when I look at the future schedules of undefeated teams to see who has the best chance to run the table and make the playoff. When the number of such teams falls below four, I chart the one-loss teams. I limit this to ‘power’ conference teams unless a ‘Group of 5’ team is in the Top ten of either the writer, coach’s or committee’s polls. I also have two fictional bowls for the two top mid-majors, (the ‘Pesci’ Bowl, named after vertically challenged but ever-feisty character actor Joe Pesci), and the two worst teams in the country, (the Ty-D Bowl, named after the Ty-D Bol toilet bowl cleaner). For the Pesci Bowl, I’ll keep track of the undefeated Group of 5 teams until there are less than two of them. Then I look at the one-loss G5 teams. For the Ty-D Bowl, I keep track of the winless teams until there are less than two of them. Then I’ll look at the 1-win teams. Rankings are by the writers/coaches/committee- when it comes out. I’ve decided to include each team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” (ART). See that post for details on how that is computed.

After WEEK 9

The Playoff contenders:

GEORGIA 10-0 (406-116) ART +100 ranking: 1/1/1
11/19 at Kentucky 6-4 (233-200) ART +38
11/26 Georgia Tech 4-6 (171-287) ART -38
Comments: Those opponents aren’t going to roll over but they are likely to be knocked over.

OHIO STATE 10-0 (468-156) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
11/19 at Maryland 6-4 (283-246) ART -3
11/26 MICHIGAN 10-0 (414-112) ART +40 ranking: 3/3/3
Comments: It looks like it will be the Buckeyes vs. the Wolverines again, with a playoff birth on the line.

MICHIGAN 10-0 (414-112) ART +40 ranking: 3/3/3
11/19 Illinois 7-3 (247-125) ART +24
11/26 at OHIO STATE 9-0 (412-142) ART +58 ranking: 2/2/2
Comments: Can the Illini be the spoilers? I’m guessing not but they can play defense.

TEXAS CHRISTIAN 10-0 (405-252) ART +108 ranking: 4/4/4
11/19 at Baylor 6-4 (348-252) ART -15
11/26 Iowa State 4-6 (218-167) ART +8
Comments: It’s a league with no bad teams and Iowa State has some famous upsets in their history.


The Pesci Bowl contenders:

COASTAL CAROLINA 9-1 (316-269) rankings: 23/23/UR
11/19 The game with Virginia has been cancelled.
11/26 at James Madison 6-3 (318-183)
Comments: JMU is very formidable. They’ve actually out-scored their opens by more than CCU has.

CENTRAL FLORIDA 8-2 (359-200) ART +21 rankings: 17/18/20
11/19 Navy 3-7 (229-258) ART +3
11/26 at SOUTH FLORIDA 1-9 (255-400) ART -25
Comments: Navy can be tricky and put a scare into Notre Dame.

CINCINNATI 8-2 (326-214) ART 0 rank: 22/21/25
11/19 at Temple 3-7 (282-325)
11/26 TULANE 8-2 (327-190) ART -3 rank: 21/22/21
Comments: Will the Bearcats be caught dreaming of the Big 12? Who saw a Cincy-Tulane game being a big confrontation?

LIBERTY 8-2 (303-227) ART +6
11/19 Virginia Tech 2-8 (189-250) ART +1
11/26 New Mexico State 4-5 (179-230)
Comments: They beat Arkansas but lost to UCONN. Go figure.

SOUTH ALABAMA 8-2 (329-193)
11/19 Southern Mississippi 5-5 (251-245) ART -12
11/26 Old Dominion 3-7 (200-265)
Comments: South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi in a battle to determine which is ‘deeper south’.

TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (8-2 (380-280) ART -16
11/19 Rice 5-5 (280-344) ART -40
11/26 Texas-El Paso 4-6 (222-284) ART -15
Comments: An under-rated programs could slip into the Pesci Bowl with a 10-2 record.

TULANE 8-2 (327-190) ART -3 rankings: 21/22/21
11/17 Southern Methodist 6-4 (403-326) ART +2
11/26 at CINCINNATI 8-2 (326-214) ART: 0 rankings: 22/21/25
Comments: The Green Wave is a blast from the past. They were one of the teams that were great before WWII but haven’t done much since. Each of their remaining foes represent a big challenge.


The Ty-D Bowl contenders:

AKRON 1-9 (195-367) ART -86
11/19 at Buffalo 5-4 (271-243)
11/26 at Northern Illinois 2-7 (268-299) ART +10
Comment: The Zips have one good chance to get off this list.

COLORADO 1-9 (157-417) ART -41
11/19 at Washington 8-2 (384-276) ART +53 ranking: 15/15/15
11/26 Utah 8-2 (393-200) ART +18 ranking: 10/10/10
Comment: The Buffs are probably better than these other Ty-D-Bol contenders but a win by them would be a bigger upset than any of them.

MASSACHUSETTS 1-9 (140-309)
11/19 at Texas A&M 3-7 (215-228) ART +68
11/26 Army 3-6 (245-229) ART -24
Comments: All their remaining opponents have losing records – but better records than UMASS, who used to have a great program when they were on the FCS level- where they still belong.

NORTHWESTERN 1-9 (153-282) ART +15
11/19 at Purdue 6-4 (296-252) ART +27
11/26 Illinois 7-3 (227-125) ART +24
Comments: The Wildcats, in the Big Ten title game two years ago, will have to pull off a major upset to avoid 1-11.

SOUTH FLORIDA 1-9 (255-400) ART -25
11/18 at Tulsa 3-7 (282-325) ART -5
11/26 CENTRAL FLORIDA 8-2 (359-200) ART +21 ranking: 17/18/20
Comment: It’s strange how this program has declined. Unless they can beat Tulsa, it’s looking like a 1-11 season for the Bulls.

If more than two teams are 1-11, I’ll use point differential as a tie-breaker.
 

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