SWC75
Bored Historian
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The BCS still lives- for now. In its 15 years, 30 teams have played for the national championship. 18 of them have had undefeated regular seasons. 11 have had one loss. One had 2 losses. (I thought the regular season was a single elimination tournament?) Of the champions, 9 have been undefeated. 5 had one loss and the two loss team somehow won a title as well. They and two of the one loss teams beat one loss teams for their titles. Only three times have we had a team that had been beaten beat an undefeated team for the title.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 7-0 (285-68) writers: #1, coaches: #1 BCS: #1
10/26 Tennessee 4-3 (213-189)
11/2 BYE
11/9 Louisiana State 6-2 (314-175) writers, coaches and BCS: #13
11/16 at Mississippi State 3-3 (183-138)
11/23 Chattanooga 5-2 (219-117)
11/30 at Auburn 6-1 (251-154) writers: #11 coaches: #17, BCS: #11
Comment: Suddenly it’s looking like the rivalry game with Auburn might be the biggest hurdle the rest of the way. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton any more and when they are good the Tide usually wins that game.
OREGON 7-0 (403-121) writers: #2, coaches: #2 BCS: #3
10/26 UCLA 5-1 (239-115) writers: #12, coaches: #11, BCS: #12
11/2: BYE
11/7 at Stanford 6-1 (241-143) writers and coaches: #8 BCS: #6
11/16 Utah 4-3 (246-187)
11/23 at Arizona 3-2 (176-95)
11/29 Oregon State 6-1 (309-199) writers & Coaches: unranked, BCS: #25
Comments: Statistically, the Ducks are a very impressive team. They have out-scored their opposition by an average of 41 points. But they have a very bumpy ride coming up: five straight games against teams with winning records. Each could be that team that ruins their national title hopes.
OHIO STATE 7-0 (315-129) writers, coaches and BCS: #4
10/26 Penn State 4-2 (200-142)
11/2 at Purdue 1-6 (92-241)
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-3 (212-170)
11/23 Indiana 3-4 (296-266)
11/30 at Michigan 6-1 (297-177) writers: #24, coaches: #23, BCS: #22
Comment: Since they were on probation last year they actually have the nation’s longest winning streak with 19 in a row. One red flag: they’ve given up 21 points per game during that span. They’ve won some shoot-outs. They win but there’s no shock and awe. But they don’t face a ranked team until Michigan and they are barely ranked.
FLORIDA STATE 6-0 (319-74) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #2
10/26 North Carolina State 3-3 (148-129)
11/2 Miami 6-0 (253-103) writers: #7, coaches #6, BCS: #7
11/9 at Wake Forest 4-3 (130-166)
11/16 Syracuse 3-4 (188-203)
11/23 Idaho 1-6 (117-302)
11/30 at Florida 4-3 (148-114)
Comment: The Noles gave the most impressive performance of any team this season in humiliation fellow national championship contender Clemson in their own “Death Valley”. It was Clemson who died. I think they will do the same to Miami and they may wind up doing it twice. I don’t think anybody wants to play this team right now.
MIAMI 6-0 (253-103) writers: #7, coaches: #6, BCS: #7
10/26 Wake Forest 4-3 (130-166)
11/2 at Florida State 6-0 (319-74) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #2
11/9 Virginia Tech 6-1 (162-105) writers: #16, coaches: #19, BCS: #14
11/16 at Duke 5-2 (250-170)
11/23 Virginia 2-5 (156-199)
11/29 at Pittsburgh 4-2 (178-169)
Comment: Miami’s undefeated record seems tenuous. They aren’t blowing people away and they’ve got some tough games coming up. Even Wake Forest and Duke are not gimmies. They will surely be off this list in two weeks, maybe sooner.
BAYLOR 6-0 (388-117) writers and coaches: #12, BCS: #8
10/26 at Kansas 2-4 (120-152)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oklahoma 6-1 (210-120) writers: #17, coaches: #12, BCS: #11
11/16 Texas Tech 7-0 (288-131) at Arlington writers: #10, coaches: #9, BCS: #10
11/23 Oklahoma State 5-1 (214-110) writers: #21, coaches #17, BCS: #19
11/30 at TCU 3-4 (177-152)
12/7 Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Bears are the most fun team in the country, averaging a nifty 65 points per game is there any way this team could be marches with Oregon, (who is averaging 58) in a bowl game? If they can get by the Oklahomas and Texas Tech, they could run the table. That would make them a “BCS buster” that’s within the BCS.
TEXAS TECH 7-0 (288-131) writers: #10, coaches: #9, BCS: #10
10/26 at Oklahoma 6-1 (210-120) writers: #17, coaches #12, BCS: #15
11/2 Oklahoma State 5-1 (214-110) writers: #19, coaches: #13, BCS: #19
11/9 Kansas State 2-4 (181-162)
11/16 vs. Baylor at Arlington 6-0 (388-117) writers: #6, coaches: #5, BCS: #8
11/23 BYE
11/28 at Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Red Raiders have another one of those teams that should provide plenty of excitement in shoot-outs with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor but will be watching the national title game on TV.
MISSOURI 7-0 (310-155) writers: #5 and coaches: #7, BCS: #5
10/26 South Carolina 5-2 (228-159) writers: #20, coaches #20, BCS: #21
11/2 Tennessee 4-3 (213-189)
11/9 at Kentucky 1-5 (115-176)
11/16 BYE
11/23 at Mississippi 4-3 (201-191)
11/30 Texas A&M 5-2 (328-237) writers: #14, coaches: #15, BCS: #16
Comment: The Tigers are for real, having beaten Georgia and Florida, (both disappointments but good teams). There’s nobody left on the schedule that they can’t handle. Somehow, they are in the SEC East, so they would be the team mostly likely to face Alabama in the SEC title game. Off of what we’ve seen, they should not be underestimated. But the Tide won’t do that.
It is therefore likely that this year’s champion will be an undefeated team. We are now five games into the season for most teams and it’s time to keep track of the undefeated teams and what their future schedule looks like to see what the big threats to their record might be and who has the best chance of surviving until the national title game.
This is not a year when we will have a “BCS buster“. A team from a non BCS (automatic qualifying conference), has to build up to that over a period of years. In recent years the teams that have done that are Boise State and Texas Christian. TCU is now a Big 12 team and both have lost. Northern Illinois and Fresno State are both undefeated but neither of them are going to be playing for the national title. The American Athletic Conference, the leftovers of the Big East, retain their BCS automatic qualification, (for now) and Louisville is undefeated and ranked #8, so they have both a good chance of running the table and an outside stance of climbing the rankings high enough to get in, so for now I will include AAC teams.
Thus I’m only going to list teams from the AAC, ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12- and I won’t include them unless they are ranked in the top 25. That’s where our national champions have always come from in the BCS era and that’s where they will come from this year.
ALABAMA 7-0 (285-68) writers: #1, coaches: #1 BCS: #1
10/26 Tennessee 4-3 (213-189)
11/2 BYE
11/9 Louisiana State 6-2 (314-175) writers, coaches and BCS: #13
11/16 at Mississippi State 3-3 (183-138)
11/23 Chattanooga 5-2 (219-117)
11/30 at Auburn 6-1 (251-154) writers: #11 coaches: #17, BCS: #11
Comment: Suddenly it’s looking like the rivalry game with Auburn might be the biggest hurdle the rest of the way. But the Tigers don’t have Cam Newton any more and when they are good the Tide usually wins that game.
OREGON 7-0 (403-121) writers: #2, coaches: #2 BCS: #3
10/26 UCLA 5-1 (239-115) writers: #12, coaches: #11, BCS: #12
11/2: BYE
11/7 at Stanford 6-1 (241-143) writers and coaches: #8 BCS: #6
11/16 Utah 4-3 (246-187)
11/23 at Arizona 3-2 (176-95)
11/29 Oregon State 6-1 (309-199) writers & Coaches: unranked, BCS: #25
Comments: Statistically, the Ducks are a very impressive team. They have out-scored their opposition by an average of 41 points. But they have a very bumpy ride coming up: five straight games against teams with winning records. Each could be that team that ruins their national title hopes.
OHIO STATE 7-0 (315-129) writers, coaches and BCS: #4
10/26 Penn State 4-2 (200-142)
11/2 at Purdue 1-6 (92-241)
11/9 BYE
11/16 at Illinois 3-3 (212-170)
11/23 Indiana 3-4 (296-266)
11/30 at Michigan 6-1 (297-177) writers: #24, coaches: #23, BCS: #22
Comment: Since they were on probation last year they actually have the nation’s longest winning streak with 19 in a row. One red flag: they’ve given up 21 points per game during that span. They’ve won some shoot-outs. They win but there’s no shock and awe. But they don’t face a ranked team until Michigan and they are barely ranked.
FLORIDA STATE 6-0 (319-74) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #2
10/26 North Carolina State 3-3 (148-129)
11/2 Miami 6-0 (253-103) writers: #7, coaches #6, BCS: #7
11/9 at Wake Forest 4-3 (130-166)
11/16 Syracuse 3-4 (188-203)
11/23 Idaho 1-6 (117-302)
11/30 at Florida 4-3 (148-114)
Comment: The Noles gave the most impressive performance of any team this season in humiliation fellow national championship contender Clemson in their own “Death Valley”. It was Clemson who died. I think they will do the same to Miami and they may wind up doing it twice. I don’t think anybody wants to play this team right now.
MIAMI 6-0 (253-103) writers: #7, coaches: #6, BCS: #7
10/26 Wake Forest 4-3 (130-166)
11/2 at Florida State 6-0 (319-74) writers and coaches: #3, BCS: #2
11/9 Virginia Tech 6-1 (162-105) writers: #16, coaches: #19, BCS: #14
11/16 at Duke 5-2 (250-170)
11/23 Virginia 2-5 (156-199)
11/29 at Pittsburgh 4-2 (178-169)
Comment: Miami’s undefeated record seems tenuous. They aren’t blowing people away and they’ve got some tough games coming up. Even Wake Forest and Duke are not gimmies. They will surely be off this list in two weeks, maybe sooner.
BAYLOR 6-0 (388-117) writers and coaches: #12, BCS: #8
10/26 at Kansas 2-4 (120-152)
11/2 BYE
11/7 Oklahoma 6-1 (210-120) writers: #17, coaches: #12, BCS: #11
11/16 Texas Tech 7-0 (288-131) at Arlington writers: #10, coaches: #9, BCS: #10
11/23 Oklahoma State 5-1 (214-110) writers: #21, coaches #17, BCS: #19
11/30 at TCU 3-4 (177-152)
12/7 Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Bears are the most fun team in the country, averaging a nifty 65 points per game is there any way this team could be marches with Oregon, (who is averaging 58) in a bowl game? If they can get by the Oklahomas and Texas Tech, they could run the table. That would make them a “BCS buster” that’s within the BCS.
TEXAS TECH 7-0 (288-131) writers: #10, coaches: #9, BCS: #10
10/26 at Oklahoma 6-1 (210-120) writers: #17, coaches #12, BCS: #15
11/2 Oklahoma State 5-1 (214-110) writers: #19, coaches: #13, BCS: #19
11/9 Kansas State 2-4 (181-162)
11/16 vs. Baylor at Arlington 6-0 (388-117) writers: #6, coaches: #5, BCS: #8
11/23 BYE
11/28 at Texas 4-2 (198-162)
Comment: The Red Raiders have another one of those teams that should provide plenty of excitement in shoot-outs with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor but will be watching the national title game on TV.
MISSOURI 7-0 (310-155) writers: #5 and coaches: #7, BCS: #5
10/26 South Carolina 5-2 (228-159) writers: #20, coaches #20, BCS: #21
11/2 Tennessee 4-3 (213-189)
11/9 at Kentucky 1-5 (115-176)
11/16 BYE
11/23 at Mississippi 4-3 (201-191)
11/30 Texas A&M 5-2 (328-237) writers: #14, coaches: #15, BCS: #16
Comment: The Tigers are for real, having beaten Georgia and Florida, (both disappointments but good teams). There’s nobody left on the schedule that they can’t handle. Somehow, they are in the SEC East, so they would be the team mostly likely to face Alabama in the SEC title game. Off of what we’ve seen, they should not be underestimated. But the Tide won’t do that.
