Then , Now and Next

[SWC75]

This is my annual look back at my pre-season basketball preview from the perspective of six months later when we know what happened – and what didn’t happen.

Then: “From 2010-2014, we had three teams that achieved a number 1 ranking and a fourth that made the Final Four. Our overall record for those five seasons was 149-32 (.823). We were ranked for 175 of those 181 games. On selection Sunday we had records of 28-4, 26-7, 31-2, 26-9 and 27-5 and when the NCAA selection show began, we were not nervous, thinking we wouldn’t be selected. We were curious, wondering who we would play, where and when.

From 2015-18, we’ve played 13 games as a ranked team, never higher than 14th. We’ve had a combined record of 83-56 (.597). On selection Sunday, we’ve been 18-13, 19-13, 18-14 and 20-13. We were nervous except for the first year, when we’d already taken ourselves out of the NCAA tournament in hopes of lightening NCAA penalties. In the other three years we were left to the NIT once and controversially selected to the NCAA tournament twice. We had two amazing NCAA runs in those years, going a combined 7-2 and making it to another Final Four. But these years have been more frustrating than joyful. All those teams had serious limitations and we were playing in a very unforgiving conference where you need to be good and playing well to win games. Syracuse fans have pinned for the days when we had ‘loaded’ teams that could compete with anybody and carried serious ambitions, not just dreams, of winning another national title: Would we ever return to that level?“

Now: Not this year. We did do enough in a year of a weak bubble to be curious on selection Sunday but we were an 8 seed and lost in the first round to finish 20-14, giving us a five year record of 103-70.


Then: “Tyus Battle, who averaged 19.2 points per game, the highest by an SU player in 14 years, after testing the waters of the NBA, decided to return to school for his junior year. That meant that our entire starting line-up from a Sweet 16 team that came very close to making the Elite 8 would be returning. The last time every starter returned for Syracuse was for the 2000 season. the same group that had limped their way to a 21-12 record and a first round loss in an 8-9 game in 1999 won their first 19 games and made it to a #4 national ranking in 2000…Our final record that year was 26-6, a 5 ½ game improvement. If we improve by 5 1/2 games over our 23-14 record of last year and advance two further games in the NCAA tournament, as we did back then, we’d be something like 28-8.”

Now: We stumbled to a 20-14 record, three games worse than last year and wound up in an 8-9 game, which lost, as we had done in 1999. Of the five returning starters, Battle improved somewhat by becoming a more efficient shooter and a better all-around player, even playing the point at times. Howard was shell of himself. Chukwu was about the same. So was Brissett, except he had trouble making free throws. Because of high expectations, he was considered a disappointment. Dolezaj had trouble adjusting to coming off the bench and having to play center for long stretches. So, as a group those five returning starters were not as good as they had been in 2018. You expect that most returning college players will improve so a group of five guys will have a net improvement but it didn’t happen.


Then: “Jim Boeheim’s biggest problem won’t be to find players who can do the things needed to win games. It will be to find ways to allow all his players to contribute to the team and not hurt their chemistry. But even that could result in team improvement. Last year our depth problem was so bad that our “Big Three” players, Tyus Battle, Frank Howard and Oshae Brissett typically played entire games against any significant opponents. These guys played the entirety of 65 games between them, including an overtime (Battle and Brissett) and a double overtime game, (Battle). Battle averaged 39.0 minutes per game, Howard 38.4 and Brissett 38.1. Those are the three top minutes per game averages in Syracuse history, (at least back to 1980, which is as far as the stats go)…But if Battle, Howard and Brissett could play 35 or maybe even 32 minutes a game, they’d play with greater efficiency and that could improve the quality of the team. The new players and the depth they can provide could allow that.

Now: We did give our starters more rest this year. Battle averaged 36.3 MPG but Brissett was at 33.0 and Howard 26.3. Elijah Hughes averaged 32.6, Dolezaj 21.7 and Chukwu 20.1. Nobody’s performance suffered from exhaustion. But it didn’t seem to help.


Then: “Chuwku developed into a very effective defensive center and a decent rebounder, (the forwards do much of the rebounding in JB’s system). Offensively, he was barely there. He had no shot, no moves and even had trouble catching passes, especially alley-oops. 5.4 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks, (18th in the country), while playing 27 minutes a game. He was a big reason the opposition went from scoring 75 to 64 points per game, which was important because our offensive output dropped from 76 to 67 points per game. This year we hope for more of the same, with a bit better mastery of catching the ball. The development of Marek Dolezaj could increase his touches and his offensive output incrementally. “

Now: Our scoring increased to 69.7ppg and we gave up 66.1ppg, although our defense never seemed to be the weapon it has been in past years. Paschal’s numbers went down to 4.4p 5.4r and 1.7b. His ball catching skills have never developed. He sustained some kind of groin injury that made it difficult for him to jump. Fortunately, he’s still 7-2. But his aggressiveness varied and he was often in JB’s doghouse. One night I got off the shuttle bus to take the walk across campus and a scalper said “I can get you a seat right next to Boeheim! I told him “That’s Chukwu’s seat.”


Then: “We will see this year if an operation Sidibe had in the off season will free him to fully develop and display his talents. If he is again limited we will again see Marek Dolezaj playing some center, which would be unfortunate. A combination of Dolezaj and Sidibe on the floor at the same time could be very productive, with Marek using his passing skills to get the ball to Bourama in the paint.”

Now: Bourama’s season just never got off the runway. He played for only brief periods and never had anything like the 18 point 16 rebound game he had against Pittsburgh in 2018. He basically fell to third string center behind Dolezaj, who is not anyone’s idea of a center. His best game was probably in the regular season finale vs. Clemson when he had 8 points and 4 rebounds in a losing effort. He admitted after the season that his knee was still bothering him. I still think he is a much more talented, if shorter player than Chukwu but unless his health improves, we may never get to see it. JB has recruited what might be a similar player in John Bol Ajak and is trying to get another in Jesse Edwards, so he’s going to have to fight for his job next year.


Then: “As a freshman, Oshae averaged 14.9 points and 8.8 rebounds per game while leading the team in blocked shots with 29, (because he averaged 38 minutes a game to Chukwu’s 27). He had 13 double-doubles and needed a single rebound to get 7 more….He showed good form on his outside shot early on, but that’s all he got out of it in the first 15 games as he missed 43 of his first 58 three pointers, (made 25.9%). I got some mileage out of a joke, suggesting that the national anthem singers were very polite to ask Oshae if he could see because it looked like a good question. But in the last 22 games, he was 40 for 108, (37.0%). He was also our best player at driving to the basket, although he needed further development there, too, as he might have led the nation in charging fouls. He also could have been a better finisher. He was our best dunker but he only shot 36.6% on two point shots…. his consistency was amazing: he scored in double figures in 22 of those games, including every NCAA game. He had 8 or more rebounds 26 times….. If he shoots well from outside the whole season, learns to avoid charging calls and finish more consistently, he could put up better numbers in less time. He could be an All-American. The NBA already wanted him more than Battle, so his sophomore year could be his last here.”

Now: He averaged 33 minutes a game and saw his output reduced to 12.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. The reduction was an illusion caused by his reduced minutes: of you multiple that by 38/33 you get 14.3ppg and 8.6rpg. He had 7 double-doubles and could have had two more with an extra rebound. His shooting declined from the arc, (33% to 27%) and the line (79% to 66%) but improved within the arc 37% to 44%. His problem was not that he got worse overall: it’s that we expected more in his sophomore year than we had seen in his freshman year and we didn’t get it. He was trying too many three point shots early and people felt he was auditioning for the NBA. He recently announced he was “testing the waters” for the NBA. That usually means he’s going, Battle being the only recent exception.


Then: “Elijah is a mystery man, having transferred here from the non-basketball power East Carolina, where he averaged a non-earth shaking 7.8 ppg and 2.3 rpg. But reports from practice last year were that he was typically matched up against the similar-size Tyus Battle in practice and gave our star player all he wanted in those contests. He was supposed to be an excellent outside shooter but a fine all-around player as well…. It’s speculated that he could take a forward positon from Marek. It was also speculated that JB knew what he had in Marek and wanted to give Elijah some serious time to see what he could do. Hughes would increase our firepower but we’d lose size and some of the things Marek does well, such as shot-blocking, rebounding and passing, especially to the post. But Hughes is hardly one-dimensional himself…. I think what will happen is that there will be two rotations: one for forward and one for guard and that Hughes will be part of both of them. Battle, Howard, Hughes, Carey and Boeheim can all play the backcourt, (so can Washington, who may not be ready). Brissett, Dolezaj and Hughes can all play forward, (so can Braswell but we may not need him yet). I expect to see a lot of Elijah at both positions but also a lot of Marek at forward.

Now: Nope. JB wanted Hughes firepower in the game from the beginning so he started at forward and played there all year. Marek came off the bench and was more often at center than forward. Hughes had a very good year, essentially displacing Frank Howard as the third member of the “Big Three” while scoring 13.7 ppg and grabbing 4.7 rebounds. He also showed an ability to block shots. He was the team’s best three point shooter at 36.9%. He became a little too dependent on the trey as the season progressed. He’s an athletic player and needs to work on driving toward the basket more than he does. But with Battle gone, he will be the team’s top returning scorer and #1 offensive option next year, which means he’ll get the most attention for the defense. He’ll have to adjust to that, as Battle successfully did in his second season.


Then: Marek Dolezaj’s “skill level and court awareness were at a higher level than a typical freshman. He always seemed to be where the ball was. He was an excellent passer. He could rebound and block shots. He had a smooth-looking jump shot but rarely seemed to use it, deferring to his teammates…Marek’s offensive tentativeness hurt us during the year even as his other skills helped us and he did kind of ‘hit the wall’ when the conference schedule began. But late in the year he did seem to gain more confidence in his shot, (or the appropriateness of his taking it), and it did begin to open things up for his teammates and for his passes to his teammates. This year, we could see more scoring from Marek, fewer defenders on his teammates and more effective passing from Marek. I especially look to see Marek feeding the post more, which could make our centers more productive, particularly a healthy Sidibe, who could shine if we could consistently get the ball to him in good situations. Marek would be a major weapon against zones from the high post.”

Now: Marek still had his skills but his development seemed held back by having to come off the bench, especially since he was often out of positon at center. He showed more confidence and aggressiveness at times but disappeared at other times. He committed many more fouls and was in foul trouble often, again probably because he was out of positon at center. If Brissett leaves, he may finally get that starting positon and be able to play his natural positon at forward. We may finally get to see his game blossom. The dream of his feeding the post for scores never developed, partially because Chukwu and Sidibe never developed and partially because they were often on the bench and it was Dolezaj who was in the post. Why we don’t put him in the high post every time against a zone defense, I don’t know. As a tall guy who can pass and shoot, he’s the ideal guy for that spot. Our offense always seems to function better when he’s in the game. Maybe we should call him “Oil Can” because he lubricates us(he baseball pitcher who used that nickname is retired so it might be available.) But for now, he’s the “Slender Slovak”.


Then: “Braswell was the consolation prize for losing Darius Bazley. He was an unheralded forward recruit with considerable potential. He’s a classic Syracuse forward: long and lean, except that he has a really good outside shot. He can also, from his tapes, pass the ball well and block shots. He was the South Carolina high jump champion with 6-11. But he’s probably going to have to wait his turn to be a part of the final rotation. We’ll see him play early in the season but when we go from 10 scholarship players to what I think will be an 8 man rotation, he will be one of the odd men out, probably #10 on the roster.”

Now: That was a correct assessment. The question is: when will his turn come? Even if Brissett leaves, Dolezaj and Hughes will be ahead of him. And here comes Quincy Guerrier, an outstanding forward prospect. Robert looked excellent playing against reserves and walk-ons this year. He played a total of 55 minutes, scoring 26 points, pulling down 10 rebounds, passing for 5 assists and making 6 steals and 2 blocks. He shot 66.7% from the field, 50% from the arc and 75% from the line. Of course the level of completion when he was in the game is a big factor but he looked smooth and confident and seemed to know what he was doing out there. He looked like a future star, if he ever gets the chance to be one.


Then: “People sweated out Tyus Battle’s big decision in the spring. He made a serious run at impressing the NBA but felt, in the end, he could benefit from another year at SU, (something that rarely happens: when kids decide they want to go, they go even if their draft prospects aren’t that great). That gives us a returning All-America candidate. Last year he averaged 19.7ppg, the highest scoring average for a Syracuse player since Hakim Warrick averaged 21.4 in 2005. His average was that high in part because he had to average 39 minutes a game…This year he will be far from our only offensive option so the defense will have to play him straight up. He won’t get 39 minutes a game but won’t have to play that many either. It should result in increased efficiency, even if he doesn’t score as high as 19.7. The interesting question is: how much better can Battle get than he already is? Can he fix his jump shot to make it more effective, or at least ‘prettier’ so the NBA scouts will like it? Maybe the answer is in his all-around game. He’s 6-6 but averaged only 3.0 rebounds per game. Attempts to use him as a small forward failed because of the loss of rebounding. He was a guard but averaged only 2.1 assists per game. He was a good defender and averaged 1.5 steals and even blocked 7 shots. But a player whose value is almost entirely in his scoring who has, (by NBA standards) mediocre range and a hitch in his shot is far from an ideal prospect.

Now: Battle didn’t disappoint anybody. His scoring dropped from 19.7 ppg to 17.2, largely because he was playing 36 minutes a game instead of 39. His rebounding improved from 2.9 to 3.3 and his assists from 2.1 to 2.5, largely because he had to play the point in some sports due to Frank Howards’ injury and Jalen Carey’s slump. He became a better all-around player but then found that the NBA wasn’t interested any more: he’s not on any of the mock drafts. I think he’s another SU player who will make his living traveling the world playing the game in various exotic spots. But we’ll always remember him here as one of the better players ever to wear Orange.


Then: “Frank Howard totally turned his career at Syracuse around last season. He’d played sparingly his first two years, held back by injuries and the lack of a jump shot. He showed some creative passing ability but sometimes too creative. There were reports that he’d become something of a clubhouse lawyer and even that he’d warned recruits away from Syracuse. Many felt he wouldn’t bother coming back for his junior year. Instead he came back strong, acting and talking like a team leader and displaying a surprising jump shot with good range. His scoring went from 4.5 ppg to 14.4. He wasn’t all that aggressive in breaking down a defense so his assist to turnover ratio was mediocre at 4.7/3.4. But he became part of our “big three” of players averaging 38-39 minutes per game who were indispensable to the team… I don’t know how much better he can get. Carey may push him into being more aggressive off the dribble. He was 33% for three point range last year. That may improve some. But right now his biggest problem is his health. He injured his “lower leg” in pre-season practice and has been wearing a “boot” to try to accelerate his recovery but “there is no timetable for his return.“

Now: This, to me, was the story of the season. We now know he suffered an ankle injury, (one story said it was broken) and had to have an operation. He probably should have red-shirted but Howard Washington wasn’t ready to come back yet and Jalen Carey was injured as well. Frank sat out the first four games and played unsteadily and erratically after that. He was never really a point guard: more of a ‘2’ guard who brought the ball upcourt at a slow pace. Then Tyus Battle went out for the ACC tournament with a back injury and Howard suddenly became the player we’d hoped for, scoring 44 points in two games, including 28 against mighty Duke. Then all of a sudden he was suspended for failing a drug test and his season and career here was over. People criticized him for his disloyalty to his teammates, assuming that the drug involved was a street drug. But there was speculation that it might have been human growth hormone, which would be used to overcome an injury. The theory would be that, with Battle out, he knew the team need him to be a productive leader and he had never really gotten over his injury, so he took the stuff to perform as well as he did in the ACCT. But SU did a test before the NCAA tournament because the NCAA does post game testing there and the school could not afford to get in trouble again. They found out what Frank had done and suspended him. Is that what really happened? I don’t know. At this point, it no longer matters. But I think we could have won 4-5 more games with a healthy Frank, one of them being the Baylor game that ended the season, (although if we’d won 4-5 more games we wouldn’t even have been playing them). A “Big Four” of Frank, Tyus, Elijah and Oshae would have been tough to beat.


Then: “Carey was our highest rated recruit for this year’s freshman class, (top 40, which made the recruiting-obsessed fans happy). Observers have said they see a future NBA player in him. With the log jam at guard he probably won’t get enough playing time to be a one-and-done but he’s not likely to be a four year guy, either. He’s supposed to be a whiz at breaking down a defense and getting to the basket. He also has quick hands and could be effective at the top of the zone with the 7-2 Chukwu behind him. He’s looked at primarily as a point guard. There’s talk that Carey will bring back the legendary Syracuse running game, which has been absent in recent years. There’s talk that JB will want him to as he’s been experimenting with a press to speed things up in practice, something he hasn’t used in years.

Now: Jalen Carey showed his talent in the otherwise disappointing trip to New York, where we sustained our first two losses. In two games, Jalen scored 40 points, 10 rebounds and 6 steals. He also had 8 turnovers and only 1 assist but nobody was complaining too loudly. The rest of the season he had 47 points, 29 rebounds, 24 assists and 33 turnovers. He had a flat, inaccurate outside shot (17.4% from three point range), and he tried to drive through defenses as if he was still high school and got stripped or lost control of the ball over and over. JB lost faith in him and his playing time dropped as the season went along until he hardly played at the end of the year. He played 72 minutes in 19 ACC games and 3 minutes in the finale against Baylor. People speculated that he might be a different kind of “one and done” – a guy who transfers out after a year because he was upset over his lack of playing time, especially considering the ineffectiveness of Frank Howard and the absence of Howard Washington. There was no “inside information suggesting this, just speculation that he might be thinking of that. Others figure that he’ll stay because JB will be “tossing him the keys to the car” next year. But with Washington back and Joe Girard and Brycen Goodine being added to the team, the competition for the point guard spot will be intense and the losers may not have a shot at that spot for the remainder of their careers.


Then: “Still, people speculated that Buddy would have a hard time cracking the guard rotation, (he’s 6-5 while his brother is 6-8). Then came the exhibition game against St. Rose. Buddy scored 19 points in 28 minutes, hitting 3 of 7 three pointers and 4 of 6 two pointers. (In the second exhibition against LeMoyne he scored 13 on 5/9 and 3 for 5 treys), He made both his free throws. He did have three turnovers but also had an assist and a steal. As a freshman in his first game, he committed just 1 foul in those 28 minutes. He made a beautiful move to dribble around a defender and hit a two point jumper, which he got off very quickly. His jumper was smooth as silk and he had range out to 25 feet. He looked just too good to keep on the bench. But with Battle, Howard, Carey, Hughes and Washington, where does he fit in? Daddy will have to figure that out.”

Now: Buddy somehow lost his touch after the good performances in the exhibition games. In his first six regular season games he was 4 for 30 from the field, 3 for 20 from the arc. People were posting that he was on the team only because his Dad was the coach and he was a waste of a scholarship. But then he began to calm down and his natural ability took over. He scored 11 points vs. Northeastern on three treys. He upped that to 12 vs. St. Bonaventure, going 3 for 3 from the arc. Most freshmen “hit the wall” when the conference season starts but Buddy did the hitting. He hit double figures 9 times with a high of 20 against Pittsburgh in a game we needed to win in the ACCT. He shot 47% from the field and 40% from three. He also showed a good understanding of the defense and quick hands in the passing lanes. His handle seemed pretty solid, (just 25 turnovers in 34 games). He was not one for driving to the basket like Battle but he could use the dribble to set up his shots. He reminded me of Trevor Cooney, except I think Buddy is a better shooter. He looked like a guy who could be our shooting guard for the next three years.

 

[SWC75]

Next: People have been discussing what the team might be like next season, so I’ll add my views. The problem is that you can’t really know what the team will be like until you know who will actually be on it. There are many ways to lose players these days and many ways to acquire them, which means that both could happen at many different times.

You can recruit players from high school, prep school or junior college. You can take in transfers. Undergrad transfers have to sit out a year but grad transferred can use a loophole to play immediately. You can recruit players from abroad. Players can be granted extra years for medical reasons. I’ve felt for years that if players leave early and their pro careers haven’t worked out they should be able to come back school to get their degree, play for the school team until their eligibility runs out and maybe kick-start their careers. It would be like a prospect going back to the minors to work things out or a non-athlete returning to college to get a degree they need to enhance or change their career. Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, Paul Harris, Chris McCullough, come home! It would be a way to get some of the talent we keep losing back.

You can lose players to graduation, (or at least an end of eligibility). Some guys transfer. Foreign players have a reputation for going home early to play in their pro leagues. The NBA could come calling, or at least players could hear their call in their minds. One of Syracuse’s big problems is that we lose players early to the pros who, (after Carmelo) are not the sort of players who are going to win you a national title in a year or two but might help do it if they stayed for four years. (I have never understood why the NBA, a league that pulls in talent from around the globe and has the smallest rosters and line-ups isn’t much more selective than they are with their draft picks.) We’ve seen school after school win the title with four year players but we can’t seem to get there because we can’t seem to keep our players here. Then there are injuries, disciplinary and legal problems and academic problems. In 2017 we started with 10 players. One of them never showed up, another left two weeks into the season and a third tore up his knee and suddenly we were down to 7 guys.

The numbers game is interesting. We had 11 recruited players on this year’s team. I prefer that term to scholarship players because JB, who walked on when he was a player, likes to give available scholarships to walk-ons. He prefers not to have more than 10-11 recruited players even though the NCAA allows 13 because the last couple of guys will never play and could become disgruntled and cause problems. He also wants flexibility: he doesn’t want to tie up a scholarship for four years that could go to a better player in the next class. Ten guys gives him completion for positons, depth, (even in 2018 we were able to get to the Sweet 16 without the three guys we lost), and he can scrimmage 5 on 5 with all recruited players, which is a better way to prepare for the other guy’s recruited players than being guarded by a walk-on.

Of the 11 recruited players on the 2019 team, two are seniors, Paschal Chukwu and Frank Howard. There was talk that Paschal could apply for a medical redshirt because in 2017 he got hit in the eye with a stray ball and had to have an operation. He played only 7 games that year and that was few enough that he could be granted an additional year. He was even asked about it by a local reporter and said he’d decide after the season whether to apply for the extra year. Jim Boeheim, on his radio show, said that Paschal could not apply for the extra year because he sat out a year after his transfer and you can’t do both. Why that would prevent it I don’t know and the reporter said that he’d been unable to find anything that said in NCAA rules. But Paschal would be 24 years old next season and we’ve heard nothing about him applying for the medical redshirt so I would presume that he won’t be back. Tyus Battle has formally announced that he’s finally going pro, even though he isn’t on any draft boards. That gets us down to 8 recruited players. Jim has gotten commitments from four high school players and is pursuing a fifth guy. That would get him up to 13 guys, which would be OK with the NCAA but contrary to Jim’s historical tendency. I asked him about that on his show and he said “The likelihood of everybody coming back is small.” Then we heard that Oshae Brissett was “testing the waters”. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost him and maybe someone else and that Jim knew or thought we might when I asked him that.

The only thing I can do now is to speculate on what next year’s team would look like if Oshae came back and we got that fifth guy with the acknowledgement that things could change if some of them aren’t there when practice starts next fall.

Bourama Sidibe will have the inside track on the positon most of thought he would win two years ago. I think he could more than adequately fill it if fully healthy. But will he ever be fully healthy? He’s still listed as 6-10 205 but I think that must have been a reading from when he was recruited. I’d say he’s more like 220 by now, not bulky but not really skinny in the way Chukwu and Dolezaj are. I went back to his high school tape to see what he looked like when fully ambulatory:
I see him do several things we never saw from Chukwu: jump shots, drives to the basket, athletic blocks not just based on his height and alley oops where he actually catches the ball. If he can do those things, he’ll be a significant upgrade over Chukwu. But that’s a big if.

The center recruit we know we have is John Bol Ajak, (I’ve heard it pronounced as if it was one word: Bowl-a-jack), who was rated the 32nd best prospect in his class in the summer of 2017 by the two47 website. Then he suffered an Achilles injury and then a hip injury. He wasn’t able to play much or well. His ranking slipped all the way to #410 and the #68 center. That didn’t impress Syracuse fans but the coaching staff stuck with him and he stuck with them and committed to come here. He’s another in a long line of ‘project’ big men from countries where they didn’t grow up playing the game after Fab Melo, Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, (who grew up in the Virgin Islands), Chinoso Obokoh, Chukwu and Sidibe. JB always says that big men take longer to develop – they are “growing into their bodies” and that foreign players who didn’t grow up playing the game also take longer so a foreign big man can take doubly long. We need somebody who can help us next season.

On the bright side, he seems to have recovered from his injuries and is supposed to be playing better so we may get someone who is closer to his peak #32 ranking than his current #410 ranking, which appears to need revision. I liked this interview with JBA in which he describes his game:
JOHN BOL AJAK commits to SYRACUSE (2019 Westtown School)
He sounds like a hard-working, ambitious young man and his description of his game is that of a skilled offensive player who wants to get better. He certainly seems to have a skill set very different from what we’ve seen from Chuwku the last few years:
6' 11" JOHN BOL AJAK Westtown School c/o 2019 (Syracuse Commit)
Two47 lists him as 6-10 205 but he says in the tape that he’s 6-11 and somebody said he was up to 240 now. I hope he develops that inside game he was talking about to balance his skills. I know nothing about his defensive capabilities.

The fifth recruit JB is still going after is 6-11 205 Jesse Edwards from the Netherlands, who arrived in the US in the fall and is playing for IMG academy in Florida, where a lot of top prospects go. He was first reported as weighing only 188 pounds but is now listed at 205. He’s not rated at all by the sources that do such things because he just got to this country. The IMG coach: ““He’s long and a typical skilled Euro big. More of a face up five man than back to the basket guy. Has range up to 15-17 feet. Solid low post package. Can pass, dribble and shoot. With his length, he is a very good rim protector. Gets better every day and has loads of potential.” There is a highlight film on him:
Highlights: Syracuse basketball recruit Jesse Edwards of IMG Academy
Again, I see things Chukwu could never do: jump shots and drives to the basket. Again, not much there about defense.

Critics claim that JB doesn’t recruit offensive centers. He’s certainly trying to. He wanted Isaiah Stewart and Tre Mitchell, two muscular inside scorers but didn’t get them. His protégé Mike Hopkins, who had been the lead recruiter on Stewart, convinced him to come out Washington. We then focused on Mitchell but were never in front for him because we came in so late. So these guys who can shoot and drive will be it for now. For several years the ‘pick and roll’ had been a part of our offense but you wouldn’t know it because our bigs couldn’t catch the ball, dribble it or score. These three guys have the ability to do that. That would be a major upgrade to our offense. What our defense will be like with Bol Ajak or Edwards in the middle, I don’t know. If they can keep their motors running for 40 minutes that would be an improvement over what we’ve had.

If Sidibe is still having physical problems and the other guys aren’t ready or come up short, we are back to Marek Dolezaj playing center. He’s an interesting player but he’s not an ACC center by any definition so that will be a failure.

We’re going to be loaded at forward, even if Oshae Brissett doesn’t come back. If he does, I want to him stronger with a stronger handle. I’d also like to see him work on a medium range and a pull-up jumper. I saw pays where he got the ball inside of the three point line and wasn’t going to dribble back out to it. So his only option seemed to be, (in modern basketball thinking), to drive into the teeth of the defense and try to find a way to corkscrew through all the arms and the legs to score. The defenders weren’t coming out to guard him and his occasional three pointers didn’t change that. If he could score from 10-15 feet, they would have to come out and get him and that would open things up for his drives.

If Oshae doesn’t come back, (and if somebody emerges at center), then Marek Dolezaj will finally get a chance to operate at his natural positon at this level: power forward. If that happens, I think we’ll his confidence and aggressiveness increase. We’ll see him hit three pointers and medium-range shots, occasionally drive to the basket, feed the post and also pass it back out for three pointers, (which always seem more likely to go in when the shooter is already squared to the basket and the pass comes back out to him rather than from the side). He can also block shots and make steals. Starting and getting starter’s minutes in his natural position could be the key for him.

Elijah Hughes will have to make the same conversion Tyus Battle did two years ago: from a 3rd option to the primary option, with the attendant defensive attention. Tyus made that conversion very well and believe Elijah will, too. He’s athletic and a fine shooter. He needs to learn to drive to the basket much more than he does. He’s actually a better jump shooter than Tyus was, with much better range.

Robert Braswell looked like a gem when he played, putting up both prolific and efficient numbers and looking like he already knew exactly what was going on out there. He can shoot it and might be the best athlete on the team. The only reservation was that he was playing against reserves and walk-ons and his stats come from a very small sample, (55 minutes played all year). But he looked like a future star. The question is: will he get to show it? If Brissett is back, Dolezaj doesn’t go home and here comes Quincy Guerrier, where is Braswell’s place? He, like Dolezaj, would probably benefit from Brissett leaving, even if the team wouldn’t. As with Sidibie, I decided to look at Braswell’s high school film to remind me of the skills he’s capable of:
Senior Year Highlights
I not only see good outside shooting, some dramatic dunks and blocks but also a couple of terrific, Leo Rautins-style laser passes from way outside to the baseline that suggest excellent court vision.

Quincy Guerrier maybe the best of the incoming recruits. People compare him to Oshae Brissett because he’s a similar size and is also from Canada. He says he’s a better shooter than Oshae. Others have suggested C. J. Fair, who could hit the outside shot but was more of a drive-to-the-basket guy who had an array of pull-ups and floaters to supplement his lay-ups and dunks. Quincy is another foreign player who doesn’t appear some rankings but the Syracuse.com said he was the equivalent of a top 50 recruit. He’s said to be the best recruit in Canada. He was going to enroll in January and begin working out with his future teammates but there was a snag in getting the good old NCAA to approve his transcript, which had to be translated from the French. His coach said “He might be short a credit so he might have to take another class here.” Uh-Oh!

Donna Ditota in Syracuse.com described him as “a 6-foot-7 physically imposing forward… At 19 years old, the future Syracuse basketball forward has built a body that already looks rugged enough to play with pros. He is 6-foot-7 and a sculpted 220 pounds. When he scrimmaged on his recruiting visit with Syracuse players last fall, Guerrier appeared bigger and brawnier than most of his future teammates”, (Brissett is 6-8, 210). Red Autry: “The biggest thing I saw about him that I initially liked was his size, his dimensions. He fits what we do. And from a game standpoint, you know what he does. He scores. That’s something you rarely find. A lot of times kids try to do a lot of different things. And you can just tell he’s an attacker, he’s an aggressive offensive player. He competes and he plays extremely hard.” Brissett: “He’s going to be a shock to a lot of people. Offensively and defensively as well. He has a great motor. He wants to win. That’s his main thing.”

“Guerrier believes his shooting stroke is the best part of his offensive game, but Appiah says simply “he’s a scorer.” Appiah worries that Guerrier sometimes “falls in love with that jump shot.” He wants him to use his size and his strength to work defenders in the post or shed them with his dribble.” That would make him similar to Hughes, who has a similar build at 6-6, 215. Here are Quincy’s highlights:
Quincy Guerrier Mixtape - BREAK OUT Season!
I saw some nice-looking jumpers and dunks, an occasional graceful drive the basket. He looks like a good player but my eyes didn’t bug out. He just looked very smooth.

There’s similar logjam in the backcourt. Basically, Buddy can’t play the point but the four guys competing for that spot could play his positon. We may see a lot of different combinations. Buddy is basically a classic ‘2’ guard with a terrific shot and the ability to dribble enough to get free for it. He’s not a drive to the basket guy but neither were GMAC, Andy Rautins or Trevor Cooney. He can get some assist and has the smarts and hands to make some steals. His basketball IQ is appropriately high. He can be stopped if the defense focuses on doing that but by pulling guys that far out to guard him, he opens things up for his teammates. He’s got good size at 6-5 188 and will get stronger.

I was surprised that Jalen Carey was listed at 6-3 168. He seems smaller, possibly because he’s often in a crouch, dribbling to the basket. He was great at slipping through the defense to score on lay-ups and dunks in New York and he runs the court very well. He’s very quick and athletic. I haven’t seen him do a lot of passing but if he can make good on his drives, the opportunities will be there. He’s probably another guy that needs to start and have his coach’s confidence and patience to develop. But he’ll be in four way battle for the point and JB will probably have a quick hook for all four of the candidates.

I took a look at Jalen’s high school film to see he seems capable of when he is “the man”:
BEST SCORING GUARD IN NJ?? Jalen Carey Early Season Highlights!!!
I see a quick, smooth player with a good handle, a great first step and quick hands. I also see a jump shot with a higher trajectory than we’ve seen this year.

Howard Washington would be the forgotten man except for his amazing story of having a stroke at age 20 as he was recovering from knee surgery. He was able to text the SU trainer who came to his aid and took him to the hospital, thus saving his life. He’s thus glad to alive, not just glad to be an Orangeman. How much it means to him to become the starting point guard after that will be a factor. Nobody really knows how good he can be. He’s Carey’s size at 6-3 180. He always wanted to be SU’s point guard but JB and the staff wanted Quade Green instead so Howard committed to Butler, then uncommitted when Green opted to go to Kentucky, (he’s since left there to transfer to Mike Hopkins’ team at Washington, where he should make an interesting tandem with Isaiah Stewart). Howard was rated the 14th best combo guard by two47 but there must not be a lot of combo guards because they had him rated #289 overall. His coach said “He’s a great leader, he’s really, really progressed. He can really shoot the ball, he’s terrific when it comes to making reads off of ball screens. Guys like playing with him. He’s good in terms of making sure other guys are involved. He’s an underrated athlete. He’s crafty in his ability to get to different spots on the floor. If there’s a big shot to be had, he’s got the [stones] to step up and make it.”

He seemed tentative early in his freshman year, then started to be more productive, scoring 9 points with 3 rebounds, an assist and a steal against Florida State. Even then he was hardly dazzling. He wound up playing 110 minutes before his injury, recording 19 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Having more rebounds than assists is interesting for a point guard. He must have had an instinct for long rebounds, something we could use. His high school tape shows decent point guard skills:
Howard Washington highlights triple double vs Ridley
Maybe as important he seems to have a point guard’s mentality. I like this interviews, (at the 1 minute mark), where he breaks down a game and sounds like a coach:
Jahvon Blair and Howard Washington - Post Game Interviews

Then there’s Brycen Goodine, whose recruitment has been overshadowed by that of Joe Girard III but who could be a classic Jim Boeheim type of point guard. He’s 6-4 170, smooth and athletic. two47 has him as the 94th best player in his class but the 15th best shooting guard. He’s still another shooting/combo guard that Boeheim wants to convert into a point man. Brycen played for the same school that sent us Michael Carter-Williams. Jeff Kelly of Otto’s Grove: “He’s got a nice stroke from the free throw line, and while he’s not yet a knock-down three point shooter, he is, to use another St. Andrew’s example, much more advanced and has a better looking stroke from outside than Michael Carter-Williams at the same age…. He’s certainly a very good ball handler and uses his size and quickness to get where he needs to be on the floor. I saw him pretty much always make good decisions with the ball when he looked to pass, and he didn’t really try to force anything. That goes for his shot selection, as well…. Defensively, he’s got the potential to be a real difference maker at the top of the 2-3 zone. He’s got long arms, good agility, and anticipates well. He was disruptive on defense,”

His highlight film:
It's TOO EASY for Syracuse Commit Brycen Goodine!! | Shows Out with BABC
Easy is good! I saw everything there I’d want to see- an easy shooting motion, good passing over and through the defense. Good driving ability and he can go up the ladder when he needs to. Whether a ‘1’ or a ‘2’, he’ll be a good player for us. A backcourt of Carey and Goodine would be about as athletic as it gets. (Goodine will be competing in a dunk contest at the Final Four Friday night.)

Then there’s Joe Girard III. He’s one of six players in US high school history to average 50 point a game in a season and he nearly did it twice. He’s led Glens Falls to two New York State Class B football championships and one basketball championship. He comes from the same high school as Jimmer Fredette, the NCAA’s player of the year in 2011. Jimmer scored 2,404 points when he was at Glens Falls. Joe has scored 4,766. Here they are working out together:
Joe Girard III works out with Glens Falls legend Jimmer Fredette
Joe’s a little smaller, (6-1 178 vs. 6-2 195) but, being a football player, he’s well-built. Besides the obvious comparison to Jimmer, he’s been compared to SU’s own Gerry McNamara, (his chief recruiter who will be working with him as an assistant coach at Syracuse) for his incredible shooting ability and range, Eric Devendorf for his ability to dribble-drive to the basket, (he won the state title by dribbling around a double-team and then avoiding a third defender along the base-line to make the game winning shot), and even to SU quarterback Eric Dungey because he quarterbacked that Glen’s Falls team that won those two state titles.

JB and GMAC were in the Dome when Glens Falls won the state football title. Boeheim: "He's a great player. He's a great competitor. He runs the show…He's a competitive kid… The fact that he plays both ways says a lot about his toughness.'' Mike Waters, who covered the game: “He eluded defenders like Keanu Reeves in The Matrix, never seeming to be in a hurry and still avoiding a would-be tackler's grasp.” GMAC: “With Joe coming in and Buddy (Boeheim) being here, we have two of the better shooters out there. Possibly the best shooter in each of the last two classes. His shooting ability translates, but he has some ability off the ball to make plays for himself and others. He can create his own shot. All of the pieces are there.”

The bad news is that the other five guys who averaged 50 points a game are named Bobbie Joe Douglas, Ervin Stepp, Johnny Benjamin, Bennie Fuller and Kent Hyde. Have you ever heard of them? They all built up big numbers playing for small, rural high schools and were unable to duplicate them at the college level. None of them averaged more than 7.5 points per game. The highest scoring player Jim Boeheim had recruited before this was probably Hal Cohen who averaged 35 points a game for a small school, (Canton) and 5.6 over a four year career at SU. He was one half of the “Cohen-Headd” backcourt at SU in the late 70’s, (Coneheads – get it?). Headd, who’d averaged 17.7 points at CBA was the better half, scoring 10.9ppg in his career here….But then he had played at a higher level of high school competition….

Two47 rates Joe the 192nd best player in the country, hardly a glowing review. But Girard chose the Orange over his other finalists Boston College, Duke, Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State. He also had offers from Baylor, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, St. John's and Washington among many others… Last summer, Girard played on the Nike EYBL circuit with the Albany City Rocks. In 16 games, Girard averaged 12.2 points (second on the team to Isaiah Stewart), made 40.8 percent of his shots and 36.6 percent (40-for-109) of his shots from 3-point range.” (Mike Waters, Syracuse.com). That’s quite a statistical come-down from Joe’s Glens Falls numbers, where he was taking most of his team’s shots. But City Rocks was much closer to college level completion than NYS Class B, so that’s a better indicator of what JG3’s numbers in college might be like. But I’d take those numbers at SU. GMAC averaged 13.3ppg, 40.1% from the field and 35.7% from three as a freshman. (And we won the national championship with Gerry hitting 6 three pointers in the first half.) That’s about the same.

Here he is at Dyckman Park in a NYC streetball tournament where he was MVP:
Joe Girard III: NY's Scoring Leader Pulls Up to Dyckman | SLAM Day in the Life
The comments are interesting, pro, con and racist.

Here is one of his many highlight tapes:
Syracuse Commit Joe Girard III GOES OFF for 59 Points! NY HS All-Time Leading Scorer!
I see a guy with range from 25, maybe 30 feet. He’s not a stationary jumper shooter- he sues the dribble to create his own shot, including a nice jab-step. He can drive through (high school) defenses to score. His game is two-dimensional: he doesn’t dunk or even get to the bottom of the backboard on his lay-ups. It’s 1950’s style basketball. He seems to have plenty of swagger, which is OK if you can back it up. I see some passing and some quick hands on defense. I also saw him rather easily backed down to the basket on an opposing players move. The last time we had a short point guard was John Gillon. That worked out offensively but not defensively. GMAC was never a defensive terror. A quote from Dolph Schayes comes to mind: “If I out-score my guy and my teammates outscore their guys, how are we going to lose? I suspect Joe sees it the same way. I like the GMAC with a bit a Devo and bit of Dungey comparison. I’ll take that. I don’t think he’ll be the next Ervin Stepp.

I could see Joe winning the point guard completion or sharing time with Buddy Boeheim at shooting guard. He and Buddy would be quite a pair bombing from the backcourt. (Joe will be participating in a three point contest at the Final Four the same night that Goodine is in the dunk contest.) I think the guard positons are going to be a game of musical chairs and a couple of guys might still be standing when the music stops. Then we’ll see if they want to stick it out here.


Overall, I see a team with plenty of talent, speed and athleticism, although the last two could vary with the line-up. It could be a shorter team, certainly without a 7-2 center. That would also depend on the line-up they use. But I don’t care how tall the players are if they play the game well and we can put a lot of guys out there who can do that. I’m concerned about the rebounding, especially if Brissett doesn’t come back. I don’t know that anybody else on the team has a reputation for excelling in that area. A team like this should get out and run every chance they have. But if they can’t get the ball or have to send everyone to the boards to do it, they won’t be able to run – unless they press. The team is built to press for 40 minutes but we won’t do that. I still see no reason we couldn’t have at least a token press on every possession and then fall back into a zone. We could get turnovers over it and eat up some of the shot clock before the other team can get into their offense. But there is a reason: JB doesn’t like to press, even though he played on teams in high school and college that did it all the time.

One thing I think we will see next year is this offense being executed more like it’s supposed to be. We run pick and roll plays with centers who can’t catch, shoot, dribble or score. I think a healthy Sidbie, Bol Ajak, Edwards, (if we can get him) or Dolezaj could all do that. We still won’t have a post-up scorer but JBA said he was working on that and maybe the others are, too. We should have plenty of firepower outside with at least 2-3 guys at all times who can hit the three. We may have some games where we’ll bomb somebody the way Virginia and Baylor bombed us. I have no idea what kind of defensive team this will be without Chukwu and a whole new backcourt. After a year where we got everyone back but they played worse, we are going to have a situation similar to the couple of years before that when there were several openings and several new pieces to play with that brought different sets of skills to the party.

An ‘X” factor for the team will be a trip to Italy this summer where they will play several games. The NCAA only allows schools to do that every seven years. It gives them not only extra practice time and game experience but is a good team-building exercise. The last time we did this was a tour of Canada in 2013 against their top teams. That fall we began a season in which we won our first 25 games and achieved a #1 ranking. But that was a different team in a different time.

 

[SUintheVille]

WOW, you should write a book. Wait, that was a book! Nice job.

 

[Alsacs]

Reading this I am not sure next year will be much different from this year unless the PG is significantly better.

Hughes as the number 1 option is scary. We need an all-ACC level player.
Hughes was a great 3rd option.

 

[HakAttack]

SWC75, this board is so lucky to have you.

 

[Melancer46]

My goodness that was a lot to get through but I'm glad I did it. I don't think I'm as optimistic about next year as you are, but I would say I'm very intrigued to see how next year plays out. It's exciting to have essentially a clean slate going into the year.

Really hope we're able to utilize Dolezaj better; he seems like he could be a really good player if he's surrounded by the right guys. Loved the flashes we saw from Braswell and Buddy this year. The C position is still probably my largest concern; I'm not really sold on any of our PGs as being PGs, but if Sidibe can't come back healthy, we're going to be in serious trouble at C (barring a transfer)

 

[kingtidge]

Manifesto of the year candidate, this post.

 

[SWC75]

Thanks.

"Something that is manifest is easy to perceive or recognize, and a manifesto is a statement in which someone makes his or her intentions or views easy for people to ascertain."

Definition of MANIFESTO

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Next: People have been discussing what the team might be like next season, so I’ll add my views. The problem is that you can’t really know what the team will be like until you know who will actually be on it. There are many ways to lose players these days and many ways to acquire them, which means that both could happen at many different times.

You can recruit players from high school, prep school or junior college. You can take in transfers. Undergrad transfers have to sit out a year but grad transferred can use a loophole to play immediately. You can recruit players from abroad. Players can be granted extra years for medical reasons. I’ve felt for years that if players leave early and their pro careers haven’t worked out they should be able to come back school to get their degree, play for the school team until their eligibility runs out and maybe kick-start their careers. It would be like a prospect going back to the minors to work things out or a non-athlete returning to college to get a degree they need to enhance or change their career. Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, Paul Harris, Chris McCullough, come home! It would be a way to get some of the talent we keep losing back.

You can lose players to graduation, (or at least an end of eligibility). Some guys transfer. Foreign players have a reputation for going home early to play in their pro leagues. The NBA could come calling, or at least players could hear their call in their minds. One of Syracuse’s big problems is that we lose players early to the pros who, (after Carmelo) are not the sort of players who are going to win you a national title in a year or two but might help do it if they stayed for four years. (I have never understood why the NBA, a league that pulls in talent from around the globe and has the smallest rosters and line-ups isn’t much more selective than they are with their draft picks.) We’ve seen school after school win the title with four year players but we can’t seem to get there because we can’t seem to keep our players here. Then there are injuries, disciplinary and legal problems and academic problems. In 2017 we started with 10 players. One of them never showed up, another left two weeks into the season and a third tore up his knee and suddenly we were down to 7 guys.

The numbers game is interesting. We had 11 recruited players on this year’s team. I prefer that term to scholarship players because JB, who walked on when he was a player, likes to give available scholarships to walk-ons. He prefers not to have more than 10-11 recruited players even though the NCAA allows 13 because the last couple of guys will never play and could become disgruntled and cause problems. He also wants flexibility: he doesn’t want to tie up a scholarship for four years that could go to a better player in the next class. Ten guys gives him completion for positons, depth, (even in 2018 we were able to get to the Sweet 16 without the three guys we lost), and he can scrimmage 5 on 5 with all recruited players, which is a better way to prepare for the other guy’s recruited players than being guarded by a walk-on.

Of the 11 recruited players on the 2019 team, two are seniors, Paschal Chukwu and Frank Howard. There was talk that Paschal could apply for a medical redshirt because in 2017 he got hit in the eye with a stray ball and had to have an operation. He played only 7 games that year and that was few enough that he could be granted an additional year. He was even asked about it by a local reporter and said he’d decide after the season whether to apply for the extra year. Jim Boeheim, on his radio show, said that Paschal could not apply for the extra year because he sat out a year after his transfer and you can’t do both. Why that would prevent it I don’t know and the reporter said that he’d been unable to find anything that said in NCAA rules. But Paschal would be 24 years old next season and we’ve heard nothing about him applying for the medical redshirt so I would presume that he won’t be back. Tyus Battle has formally announced that he’s finally going pro, even though he isn’t on any draft boards. That gets us down to 8 recruited players. Jim has gotten commitments from four high school players and is pursuing a fifth guy. That would get him up to 13 guys, which would be OK with the NCAA but contrary to Jim’s historical tendency. I asked him about that on his show and he said “The likelihood of everybody coming back is small.” Then we heard that Oshae Brissett was “testing the waters”. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost him and maybe someone else and that Jim knew or thought we might when I asked him that.

The only thing I can do now is to speculate on what next year’s team would look like if Oshae came back and we got that fifth guy with the acknowledgement that things could change if some of them aren’t there when practice starts next fall.

Bourama Sidibe will have the inside track on the positon most of thought he would win two years ago. I think he could more than adequately fill it if fully healthy. But will he ever be fully healthy? He’s still listed as 6-10 205 but I think that must have been a reading from when he was recruited. I’d say he’s more like 220 by now, not bulky but not really skinny in the way Chukwu and Dolezaj are. I went back to his high school tape to see what he looked like when fully ambulatory:
I see him do several things we never saw from Chukwu: jump shots, drives to the basket, athletic blocks not just based on his height and alley oops where he actually catches the ball. If he can do those things, he’ll be a significant upgrade over Chukwu. But that’s a big if.

The center recruit we know we have is John Bol Ajak, (I’ve heard it pronounced as if it was one word: Bowl-a-jack), who was rated the 32nd best prospect in his class in the summer of 2017 by the two47 website. Then he suffered an Achilles injury and then a hip injury. He wasn’t able to play much or well. His ranking slipped all the way to #410 and the #68 center. That didn’t impress Syracuse fans but the coaching staff stuck with him and he stuck with them and committed to come here. He’s another in a long line of ‘project’ big men from countries where they didn’t grow up playing the game after Fab Melo, Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, (who grew up in the Virgin Islands), Chinoso Obokoh, Chukwu and Sidibe. JB always says that big men take longer to develop – they are “growing into their bodies” and that foreign players who didn’t grow up playing the game also take longer so a foreign big man can take doubly long. We need somebody who can help us next season.

On the bright side, he seems to have recovered from his injuries and is supposed to be playing better so we may get someone who is closer to his peak #32 ranking than his current #410 ranking, which appears to need revision. I liked this interview with JBA in which he describes his game:
JOHN BOL AJAK commits to SYRACUSE (2019 Westtown School)
He sounds like a hard-working, ambitious young man and his description of his game is that of a skilled offensive player who wants to get better. He certainly seems to have a skill set very different from what we’ve seen from Chuwku the last few years:
6' 11" JOHN BOL AJAK Westtown School c/o 2019 (Syracuse Commit)
Two47 lists him as 6-10 205 but he says in the tape that he’s 6-11 and somebody said he was up to 240 now. I hope he develops that inside game he was talking about to balance his skills. I know nothing about his defensive capabilities.

The fifth recruit JB is still going after is 6-11 205 Jesse Edwards from the Netherlands, who arrived in the US in the fall and is playing for IMG academy in Florida, where a lot of top prospects go. He was first reported as weighing only 188 pounds but is now listed at 205. He’s not rated at all by the sources that do such things because he just got to this country. The IMG coach: ““He’s long and a typical skilled Euro big. More of a face up five man than back to the basket guy. Has range up to 15-17 feet. Solid low post package. Can pass, dribble and shoot. With his length, he is a very good rim protector. Gets better every day and has loads of potential.” There is a highlight film on him:
Highlights: Syracuse basketball recruit Jesse Edwards of IMG Academy
Again, I see things Chukwu could never do: jump shots and drives to the basket. Again, not much there about defense.

Critics claim that JB doesn’t recruit offensive centers. He’s certainly trying to. He wanted Isaiah Stewart and Tre Mitchell, two muscular inside scorers but didn’t get them. His protégé Mike Hopkins, who had been the lead recruiter on Stewart, convinced him to come out Washington. We then focused on Mitchell but were never in front for him because we came in so late. So these guys who can shoot and drive will be it for now. For several years the ‘pick and roll’ had been a part of our offense but you wouldn’t know it because our bigs couldn’t catch the ball, dribble it or score. These three guys have the ability to do that. That would be a major upgrade to our offense. What our defense will be like with Bol Ajak or Edwards in the middle, I don’t know. If they can keep their motors running for 40 minutes that would be an improvement over what we’ve had.

If Sidibe is still having physical problems and the other guys aren’t ready or come up short, we are back to Marek Dolezaj playing center. He’s an interesting player but he’s not an ACC center by any definition so that will be a failure.

We’re going to be loaded at forward, even if Oshae Brissett doesn’t come back. If he does, I want to him stronger with a stronger handle. I’d also like to see him work on a medium range and a pull-up jumper. I saw pays where he got the ball inside of the three point line and wasn’t going to dribble back out to it. So his only option seemed to be, (in modern basketball thinking), to drive into the teeth of the defense and try to find a way to corkscrew through all the arms and the legs to score. The defenders weren’t coming out to guard him and his occasional three pointers didn’t change that. If he could score from 10-15 feet, they would have to come out and get him and that would open things up for his drives.

If Oshae doesn’t come back, (and if somebody emerges at center), then Marek Dolezaj will finally get a chance to operate at his natural positon at this level: power forward. If that happens, I think we’ll his confidence and aggressiveness increase. We’ll see him hit three pointers and medium-range shots, occasionally drive to the basket, feed the post and also pass it back out for three pointers, (which always seem more likely to go in when the shooter is already squared to the basket and the pass comes back out to him rather than from the side). He can also block shots and make steals. Starting and getting starter’s minutes in his natural position could be the key for him.

Elijah Hughes will have to make the same conversion Tyus Battle did two years ago: from a 3rd option to the primary option, with the attendant defensive attention. Tyus made that conversion very well and believe Elijah will, too. He’s athletic and a fine shooter. He needs to learn to drive to the basket much more than he does. He’s actually a better jump shooter than Tyus was, with much better range.

Robert Braswell looked like a gem when he played, putting up both prolific and efficient numbers and looking like he already knew exactly what was going on out there. He can shoot it and might be the best athlete on the team. The only reservation was that he was playing against reserves and walk-ons and his stats come from a very small sample, (55 minutes played all year). But he looked like a future star. The question is: will he get to show it? If Brissett is back, Dolezaj doesn’t go home and here comes Quincy Guerrier, where is Braswell’s place? He, like Dolezaj, would probably benefit from Brissett leaving, even if the team wouldn’t. As with Sidibie, I decided to look at Braswell’s high school film to remind me of the skills he’s capable of:
Senior Year Highlights
I not only see good outside shooting, some dramatic dunks and blocks but also a couple of terrific, Leo Rautins-style laser passes from way outside to the baseline that suggest excellent court vision.

Quincy Guerrier maybe the best of the incoming recruits. People compare him to Oshae Brissett because he’s a similar size and is also from Canada. He says he’s a better shooter than Oshae. Others have suggested C. J. Fair, who could hit the outside shot but was more of a drive-to-the-basket guy who had an array of pull-ups and floaters to supplement his lay-ups and dunks. Quincy is another foreign player who doesn’t appear some rankings but the Syracuse.com said he was the equivalent of a top 50 recruit. He’s said to be the best recruit in Canada. He was going to enroll in January and begin working out with his future teammates but there was a snag in getting the good old NCAA to approve his transcript, which had to be translated from the French. His coach said “He might be short a credit so he might have to take another class here.” Uh-Oh!

Donna Ditota in Syracuse.com described him as “a 6-foot-7 physically imposing forward… At 19 years old, the future Syracuse basketball forward has built a body that already looks rugged enough to play with pros. He is 6-foot-7 and a sculpted 220 pounds. When he scrimmaged on his recruiting visit with Syracuse players last fall, Guerrier appeared bigger and brawnier than most of his future teammates”, (Brissett is 6-8, 210). Red Autry: “The biggest thing I saw about him that I initially liked was his size, his dimensions. He fits what we do. And from a game standpoint, you know what he does. He scores. That’s something you rarely find. A lot of times kids try to do a lot of different things. And you can just tell he’s an attacker, he’s an aggressive offensive player. He competes and he plays extremely hard.” Brissett: “He’s going to be a shock to a lot of people. Offensively and defensively as well. He has a great motor. He wants to win. That’s his main thing.”

“Guerrier believes his shooting stroke is the best part of his offensive game, but Appiah says simply “he’s a scorer.” Appiah worries that Guerrier sometimes “falls in love with that jump shot.” He wants him to use his size and his strength to work defenders in the post or shed them with his dribble.” That would make him similar to Hughes, who has a similar build at 6-6, 215. Here are Quincy’s highlights:
Quincy Guerrier Mixtape - BREAK OUT Season!
I saw some nice-looking jumpers and dunks, an occasional graceful drive the basket. He looks like a good player but my eyes didn’t bug out. He just looked very smooth.

There’s similar logjam in the backcourt. Basically, Buddy can’t play the point but the four guys competing for that spot could play his positon. We may see a lot of different combinations. Buddy is basically a classic ‘2’ guard with a terrific shot and the ability to dribble enough to get free for it. He’s not a drive to the basket guy but neither were GMAC, Andy Rautins or Trevor Cooney. He can get some assist and has the smarts and hands to make some steals. His basketball IQ is appropriately high. He can be stopped if the defense focuses on doing that but by pulling guys that far out to guard him, he opens things up for his teammates. He’s got good size at 6-5 188 and will get stronger.

I was surprised that Jalen Carey was listed at 6-3 168. He seems smaller, possibly because he’s often in a crouch, dribbling to the basket. He was great at slipping through the defense to score on lay-ups and dunks in New York and he runs the court very well. He’s very quick and athletic. I haven’t seen him do a lot of passing but if he can make good on his drives, the opportunities will be there. He’s probably another guy that needs to start and have his coach’s confidence and patience to develop. But he’ll be in four way battle for the point and JB will probably have a quick hook for all four of the candidates.

I took a look at Jalen’s high school film to see he seems capable of when he is “the man”:
BEST SCORING GUARD IN NJ?? Jalen Carey Early Season Highlights!!!
I see a quick, smooth player with a good handle, a great first step and quick hands. I also see a jump shot with a higher trajectory than we’ve seen this year.

Howard Washington would be the forgotten man except for his amazing story of having a stroke at age 20 as he was recovering from knee surgery. He was able to text the SU trainer who came to his aid and took him to the hospital, thus saving his life. He’s thus glad to alive, not just glad to be an Orangeman. How much it means to him to become the starting point guard after that will be a factor. Nobody really knows how good he can be. He’s Carey’s size at 6-3 180. He always wanted to be SU’s point guard but JB and the staff wanted Quade Green instead so Howard committed to Butler, then uncommitted when Green opted to go to Kentucky, (he’s since left there to transfer to Mike Hopkins’ team at Washington, where he should make an interesting tandem with Isaiah Stewart). Howard was rated the 14th best combo guard by two47 but there must not be a lot of combo guards because they had him rated #289 overall. His coach said “He’s a great leader, he’s really, really progressed. He can really shoot the ball, he’s terrific when it comes to making reads off of ball screens. Guys like playing with him. He’s good in terms of making sure other guys are involved. He’s an underrated athlete. He’s crafty in his ability to get to different spots on the floor. If there’s a big shot to be had, he’s got the [stones] to step up and make it.”

He seemed tentative early in his freshman year, then started to be more productive, scoring 9 points with 3 rebounds, an assist and a steal against Florida State. Even then he was hardly dazzling. He wound up playing 110 minutes before his injury, recording 19 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Having more rebounds than assists is interesting for a point guard. He must have had an instinct for long rebounds, something we could use. His high school tape shows decent point guard skills:
Howard Washington highlights triple double vs Ridley
Maybe as important he seems to have a point guard’s mentality. I like this interviews, (at the 1 minute mark), where he breaks down a game and sounds like a coach:
Jahvon Blair and Howard Washington - Post Game Interviews

Then there’s Brycen Goodine, whose recruitment has been overshadowed by that of Joe Girard III but who could be a classic Jim Boeheim type of point guard. He’s 6-4 170, smooth and athletic. two47 has him as the 94th best player in his class but the 15th best shooting guard. He’s still another shooting/combo guard that Boeheim wants to convert into a point man. Brycen played for the same school that sent us Michael Carter-Williams. Jeff Kelly of Otto’s Grove: “He’s got a nice stroke from the free throw line, and while he’s not yet a knock-down three point shooter, he is, to use another St. Andrew’s example, much more advanced and has a better looking stroke from outside than Michael Carter-Williams at the same age…. He’s certainly a very good ball handler and uses his size and quickness to get where he needs to be on the floor. I saw him pretty much always make good decisions with the ball when he looked to pass, and he didn’t really try to force anything. That goes for his shot selection, as well…. Defensively, he’s got the potential to be a real difference maker at the top of the 2-3 zone. He’s got long arms, good agility, and anticipates well. He was disruptive on defense,”

His highlight film:
It's TOO EASY for Syracuse Commit Brycen Goodine!! | Shows Out with BABC
Easy is good! I saw everything there I’d want to see- an easy shooting motion, good passing over and through the defense. Good driving ability and he can go up the ladder when he needs to. Whether a ‘1’ or a ‘2’, he’ll be a good player for us. A backcourt of Carey and Goodine would be about as athletic as it gets. (Goodine will be competing in a dunk contest at the Final Four Friday night.)

Then there’s Joe Girard III. He’s one of six players in US high school history to average 50 point a game in a season and he nearly did it twice. He’s led Glens Falls to two New York State Class B football championships and one basketball championship. He comes from the same high school as Jimmer Fredette, the NCAA’s player of the year in 2011. Jimmer scored 2,404 points when he was at Glens Falls. Joe has scored 4,766. Here they are working out together:
Joe Girard III works out with Glens Falls legend Jimmer Fredette
Joe’s a little smaller, (6-1 178 vs. 6-2 195) but, being a football player, he’s well-built. Besides the obvious comparison to Jimmer, he’s been compared to SU’s own Gerry McNamara, (his chief recruiter who will be working with him as an assistant coach at Syracuse) for his incredible shooting ability and range, Eric Devendorf for his ability to dribble-drive to the basket, (he won the state title by dribbling around a double-team and then avoiding a third defender along the base-line to make the game winning shot), and even to SU quarterback Eric Dungey because he quarterbacked that Glen’s Falls team that won those two state titles.

JB and GMAC were in the Dome when Glens Falls won the state football title. Boeheim: "He's a great player. He's a great competitor. He runs the show…He's a competitive kid… The fact that he plays both ways says a lot about his toughness.'' Mike Waters, who covered the game: “He eluded defenders like Keanu Reeves in The Matrix, never seeming to be in a hurry and still avoiding a would-be tackler's grasp.” GMAC: “With Joe coming in and Buddy (Boeheim) being here, we have two of the better shooters out there. Possibly the best shooter in each of the last two classes. His shooting ability translates, but he has some ability off the ball to make plays for himself and others. He can create his own shot. All of the pieces are there.”

The bad news is that the other five guys who averaged 50 points a game are named Bobbie Joe Douglas, Ervin Stepp, Johnny Benjamin, Bennie Fuller and Kent Hyde. Have you ever heard of them? They all built up big numbers playing for small, rural high schools and were unable to duplicate them at the college level. None of them averaged more than 7.5 points per game. The highest scoring player Jim Boeheim had recruited before this was probably Hal Cohen who averaged 35 points a game for a small school, (Canton) and 5.6 over a four year career at SU. He was one half of the “Cohen-Headd” backcourt at SU in the late 70’s, (Coneheads – get it?). Headd, who’d averaged 17.7 points at CBA was the better half, scoring 10.9ppg in his career here….But then he had played at a higher level of high school competition….

Two47 rates Joe the 192nd best player in the country, hardly a glowing review. But Girard chose the Orange over his other finalists Boston College, Duke, Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State. He also had offers from Baylor, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, St. John's and Washington among many others… Last summer, Girard played on the Nike EYBL circuit with the Albany City Rocks. In 16 games, Girard averaged 12.2 points (second on the team to Isaiah Stewart), made 40.8 percent of his shots and 36.6 percent (40-for-109) of his shots from 3-point range.” (Mike Waters, Syracuse.com). That’s quite a statistical come-down from Joe’s Glens Falls numbers, where he was taking most of his team’s shots. But City Rocks was much closer to college level completion than NYS Class B, so that’s a better indicator of what JG3’s numbers in college might be like. But I’d take those numbers at SU. GMAC averaged 13.3ppg, 40.1% from the field and 35.7% from three as a freshman. (And we won the national championship with Gerry hitting 6 three pointers in the first half.) That’s about the same.

Here he is at Dyckman Park in a NYC streetball tournament where he was MVP:
Joe Girard III: NY's Scoring Leader Pulls Up to Dyckman | SLAM Day in the Life
The comments are interesting, pro, con and racist.

Here is one of his many highlight tapes:
Syracuse Commit Joe Girard III GOES OFF for 59 Points! NY HS All-Time Leading Scorer!
I see a guy with range from 25, maybe 30 feet. He’s not a stationary jumper shooter- he sues the dribble to create his own shot, including a nice jab-step. He can drive through (high school) defenses to score. His game is two-dimensional: he doesn’t dunk or even get to the bottom of the backboard on his lay-ups. It’s 1950’s style basketball. He seems to have plenty of swagger, which is OK if you can back it up. I see some passing and some quick hands on defense. I also saw him rather easily backed down to the basket on an opposing players move. The last time we had a short point guard was John Gillon. That worked out offensively but not defensively. GMAC was never a defensive terror. A quote from Dolph Schayes comes to mind: “If I out-score my guy and my teammates outscore their guys, how are we going to lose? I suspect Joe sees it the same way. I like the GMAC with a bit a Devo and bit of Dungey comparison. I’ll take that. I don’t think he’ll be the next Ervin Stepp.

I could see Joe winning the point guard completion or sharing time with Buddy Boeheim at shooting guard. He and Buddy would be quite a pair bombing from the backcourt. (Joe will be participating in a three point contest at the Final Four the same night that Goodine is in the dunk contest.) I think the guard positons are going to be a game of musical chairs and a couple of guys might still be standing when the music stops. Then we’ll see if they want to stick it out here.


Overall, I see a team with plenty of talent, speed and athleticism, although the last two could vary with the line-up. It could be a shorter team, certainly without a 7-2 center. That would also depend on the line-up they use. But I don’t care how tall the players are if they play the game well and we can put a lot of guys out there who can do that. I’m concerned about the rebounding, especially if Brissett doesn’t come back. I don’t know that anybody else on the team has a reputation for excelling in that area. A team like this should get out and run every chance they have. But if they can’t get the ball or have to send everyone to the boards to do it, they won’t be able to run – unless they press. The team is built to press for 40 minutes but we won’t do that. I still see no reason we couldn’t have at least a token press on every possession and then fall back into a zone. We could get turnovers over it and eat up some of the shot clock before the other team can get into their offense. But there is a reason: JB doesn’t like to press, even though he played on teams in high school and college that did it all the time.

One thing I think we will see next year is this offense being executed more like it’s supposed to be. We run pick and roll plays with centers who can’t catch, shoot, dribble or score. I think a healthy Sidbie, Bol Ajak, Edwards, (if we can get him) or Dolezaj could all do that. We still won’t have a post-up scorer but JBA said he was working on that and maybe the others are, too. We should have plenty of firepower outside with at least 2-3 guys at all times who can hit the three. We may have some games where we’ll bomb somebody the way Virginia and Baylor bombed us. I have no idea what kind of defensive team this will be without Chukwu and a whole new backcourt. After a year where we got everyone back but they played worse, we are going to have a situation similar to the couple of years before that when there were several openings and several new pieces to play with that brought different sets of skills to the party.

An ‘X” factor for the team will be a trip to Italy this summer where they will play several games. The NCAA only allows schools to do that every seven years. It gives them not only extra practice time and game experience but is a good team-building exercise. The last time we did this was a tour of Canada in 2013 against their top teams. That fall we began a season in which we won our first 25 games and achieved a #1 ranking. But that was a different team in a different time.

Your previews and recaps are very comprehensive. It is greatly appreciated.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Next: People have been discussing what the team might be like next season, so I’ll add my views. The problem is that you can’t really know what the team will be like until you know who will actually be on it. There are many ways to lose players these days and many ways to acquire them, which means that both could happen at many different times.

You can recruit players from high school, prep school or junior college. You can take in transfers. Undergrad transfers have to sit out a year but grad transferred can use a loophole to play immediately. You can recruit players from abroad. Players can be granted extra years for medical reasons. I’ve felt for years that if players leave early and their pro careers haven’t worked out they should be able to come back school to get their degree, play for the school team until their eligibility runs out and maybe kick-start their careers. It would be like a prospect going back to the minors to work things out or a non-athlete returning to college to get a degree they need to enhance or change their career. Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, Paul Harris, Chris McCullough, come home! It would be a way to get some of the talent we keep losing back.

You can lose players to graduation, (or at least an end of eligibility). Some guys transfer. Foreign players have a reputation for going home early to play in their pro leagues. The NBA could come calling, or at least players could hear their call in their minds. One of Syracuse’s big problems is that we lose players early to the pros who, (after Carmelo) are not the sort of players who are going to win you a national title in a year or two but might help do it if they stayed for four years. (I have never understood why the NBA, a league that pulls in talent from around the globe and has the smallest rosters and line-ups isn’t much more selective than they are with their draft picks.) We’ve seen school after school win the title with four year players but we can’t seem to get there because we can’t seem to keep our players here. Then there are injuries, disciplinary and legal problems and academic problems. In 2017 we started with 10 players. One of them never showed up, another left two weeks into the season and a third tore up his knee and suddenly we were down to 7 guys.

The numbers game is interesting. We had 11 recruited players on this year’s team. I prefer that term to scholarship players because JB, who walked on when he was a player, likes to give available scholarships to walk-ons. He prefers not to have more than 10-11 recruited players even though the NCAA allows 13 because the last couple of guys will never play and could become disgruntled and cause problems. He also wants flexibility: he doesn’t want to tie up a scholarship for four years that could go to a better player in the next class. Ten guys gives him completion for positons, depth, (even in 2018 we were able to get to the Sweet 16 without the three guys we lost), and he can scrimmage 5 on 5 with all recruited players, which is a better way to prepare for the other guy’s recruited players than being guarded by a walk-on.

Of the 11 recruited players on the 2019 team, two are seniors, Paschal Chukwu and Frank Howard. There was talk that Paschal could apply for a medical redshirt because in 2017 he got hit in the eye with a stray ball and had to have an operation. He played only 7 games that year and that was few enough that he could be granted an additional year. He was even asked about it by a local reporter and said he’d decide after the season whether to apply for the extra year. Jim Boeheim, on his radio show, said that Paschal could not apply for the extra year because he sat out a year after his transfer and you can’t do both. Why that would prevent it I don’t know and the reporter said that he’d been unable to find anything that said in NCAA rules. But Paschal would be 24 years old next season and we’ve heard nothing about him applying for the medical redshirt so I would presume that he won’t be back. Tyus Battle has formally announced that he’s finally going pro, even though he isn’t on any draft boards. That gets us down to 8 recruited players. Jim has gotten commitments from four high school players and is pursuing a fifth guy. That would get him up to 13 guys, which would be OK with the NCAA but contrary to Jim’s historical tendency. I asked him about that on his show and he said “The likelihood of everybody coming back is small.” Then we heard that Oshae Brissett was “testing the waters”. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost him and maybe someone else and that Jim knew or thought we might when I asked him that.

The only thing I can do now is to speculate on what next year’s team would look like if Oshae came back and we got that fifth guy with the acknowledgement that things could change if some of them aren’t there when practice starts next fall.

Bourama Sidibe will have the inside track on the positon most of thought he would win two years ago. I think he could more than adequately fill it if fully healthy. But will he ever be fully healthy? He’s still listed as 6-10 205 but I think that must have been a reading from when he was recruited. I’d say he’s more like 220 by now, not bulky but not really skinny in the way Chukwu and Dolezaj are. I went back to his high school tape to see what he looked like when fully ambulatory:
I see him do several things we never saw from Chukwu: jump shots, drives to the basket, athletic blocks not just based on his height and alley oops where he actually catches the ball. If he can do those things, he’ll be a significant upgrade over Chukwu. But that’s a big if.

The center recruit we know we have is John Bol Ajak, (I’ve heard it pronounced as if it was one word: Bowl-a-jack), who was rated the 32nd best prospect in his class in the summer of 2017 by the two47 website. Then he suffered an Achilles injury and then a hip injury. He wasn’t able to play much or well. His ranking slipped all the way to #410 and the #68 center. That didn’t impress Syracuse fans but the coaching staff stuck with him and he stuck with them and committed to come here. He’s another in a long line of ‘project’ big men from countries where they didn’t grow up playing the game after Fab Melo, Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, (who grew up in the Virgin Islands), Chinoso Obokoh, Chukwu and Sidibe. JB always says that big men take longer to develop – they are “growing into their bodies” and that foreign players who didn’t grow up playing the game also take longer so a foreign big man can take doubly long. We need somebody who can help us next season.

On the bright side, he seems to have recovered from his injuries and is supposed to be playing better so we may get someone who is closer to his peak #32 ranking than his current #410 ranking, which appears to need revision. I liked this interview with JBA in which he describes his game:
JOHN BOL AJAK commits to SYRACUSE (2019 Westtown School)
He sounds like a hard-working, ambitious young man and his description of his game is that of a skilled offensive player who wants to get better. He certainly seems to have a skill set very different from what we’ve seen from Chuwku the last few years:
6' 11" JOHN BOL AJAK Westtown School c/o 2019 (Syracuse Commit)
Two47 lists him as 6-10 205 but he says in the tape that he’s 6-11 and somebody said he was up to 240 now. I hope he develops that inside game he was talking about to balance his skills. I know nothing about his defensive capabilities.

The fifth recruit JB is still going after is 6-11 205 Jesse Edwards from the Netherlands, who arrived in the US in the fall and is playing for IMG academy in Florida, where a lot of top prospects go. He was first reported as weighing only 188 pounds but is now listed at 205. He’s not rated at all by the sources that do such things because he just got to this country. The IMG coach: ““He’s long and a typical skilled Euro big. More of a face up five man than back to the basket guy. Has range up to 15-17 feet. Solid low post package. Can pass, dribble and shoot. With his length, he is a very good rim protector. Gets better every day and has loads of potential.” There is a highlight film on him:
Highlights: Syracuse basketball recruit Jesse Edwards of IMG Academy
Again, I see things Chukwu could never do: jump shots and drives to the basket. Again, not much there about defense.

Critics claim that JB doesn’t recruit offensive centers. He’s certainly trying to. He wanted Isaiah Stewart and Tre Mitchell, two muscular inside scorers but didn’t get them. His protégé Mike Hopkins, who had been the lead recruiter on Stewart, convinced him to come out Washington. We then focused on Mitchell but were never in front for him because we came in so late. So these guys who can shoot and drive will be it for now. For several years the ‘pick and roll’ had been a part of our offense but you wouldn’t know it because our bigs couldn’t catch the ball, dribble it or score. These three guys have the ability to do that. That would be a major upgrade to our offense. What our defense will be like with Bol Ajak or Edwards in the middle, I don’t know. If they can keep their motors running for 40 minutes that would be an improvement over what we’ve had.

If Sidibe is still having physical problems and the other guys aren’t ready or come up short, we are back to Marek Dolezaj playing center. He’s an interesting player but he’s not an ACC center by any definition so that will be a failure.

We’re going to be loaded at forward, even if Oshae Brissett doesn’t come back. If he does, I want to him stronger with a stronger handle. I’d also like to see him work on a medium range and a pull-up jumper. I saw pays where he got the ball inside of the three point line and wasn’t going to dribble back out to it. So his only option seemed to be, (in modern basketball thinking), to drive into the teeth of the defense and try to find a way to corkscrew through all the arms and the legs to score. The defenders weren’t coming out to guard him and his occasional three pointers didn’t change that. If he could score from 10-15 feet, they would have to come out and get him and that would open things up for his drives.

If Oshae doesn’t come back, (and if somebody emerges at center), then Marek Dolezaj will finally get a chance to operate at his natural positon at this level: power forward. If that happens, I think we’ll his confidence and aggressiveness increase. We’ll see him hit three pointers and medium-range shots, occasionally drive to the basket, feed the post and also pass it back out for three pointers, (which always seem more likely to go in when the shooter is already squared to the basket and the pass comes back out to him rather than from the side). He can also block shots and make steals. Starting and getting starter’s minutes in his natural position could be the key for him.

Elijah Hughes will have to make the same conversion Tyus Battle did two years ago: from a 3rd option to the primary option, with the attendant defensive attention. Tyus made that conversion very well and believe Elijah will, too. He’s athletic and a fine shooter. He needs to learn to drive to the basket much more than he does. He’s actually a better jump shooter than Tyus was, with much better range.

Robert Braswell looked like a gem when he played, putting up both prolific and efficient numbers and looking like he already knew exactly what was going on out there. He can shoot it and might be the best athlete on the team. The only reservation was that he was playing against reserves and walk-ons and his stats come from a very small sample, (55 minutes played all year). But he looked like a future star. The question is: will he get to show it? If Brissett is back, Dolezaj doesn’t go home and here comes Quincy Guerrier, where is Braswell’s place? He, like Dolezaj, would probably benefit from Brissett leaving, even if the team wouldn’t. As with Sidibie, I decided to look at Braswell’s high school film to remind me of the skills he’s capable of:
Senior Year Highlights
I not only see good outside shooting, some dramatic dunks and blocks but also a couple of terrific, Leo Rautins-style laser passes from way outside to the baseline that suggest excellent court vision.

Quincy Guerrier maybe the best of the incoming recruits. People compare him to Oshae Brissett because he’s a similar size and is also from Canada. He says he’s a better shooter than Oshae. Others have suggested C. J. Fair, who could hit the outside shot but was more of a drive-to-the-basket guy who had an array of pull-ups and floaters to supplement his lay-ups and dunks. Quincy is another foreign player who doesn’t appear some rankings but the Syracuse.com said he was the equivalent of a top 50 recruit. He’s said to be the best recruit in Canada. He was going to enroll in January and begin working out with his future teammates but there was a snag in getting the good old NCAA to approve his transcript, which had to be translated from the French. His coach said “He might be short a credit so he might have to take another class here.” Uh-Oh!

Donna Ditota in Syracuse.com described him as “a 6-foot-7 physically imposing forward… At 19 years old, the future Syracuse basketball forward has built a body that already looks rugged enough to play with pros. He is 6-foot-7 and a sculpted 220 pounds. When he scrimmaged on his recruiting visit with Syracuse players last fall, Guerrier appeared bigger and brawnier than most of his future teammates”, (Brissett is 6-8, 210). Red Autry: “The biggest thing I saw about him that I initially liked was his size, his dimensions. He fits what we do. And from a game standpoint, you know what he does. He scores. That’s something you rarely find. A lot of times kids try to do a lot of different things. And you can just tell he’s an attacker, he’s an aggressive offensive player. He competes and he plays extremely hard.” Brissett: “He’s going to be a shock to a lot of people. Offensively and defensively as well. He has a great motor. He wants to win. That’s his main thing.”

“Guerrier believes his shooting stroke is the best part of his offensive game, but Appiah says simply “he’s a scorer.” Appiah worries that Guerrier sometimes “falls in love with that jump shot.” He wants him to use his size and his strength to work defenders in the post or shed them with his dribble.” That would make him similar to Hughes, who has a similar build at 6-6, 215. Here are Quincy’s highlights:
Quincy Guerrier Mixtape - BREAK OUT Season!
I saw some nice-looking jumpers and dunks, an occasional graceful drive the basket. He looks like a good player but my eyes didn’t bug out. He just looked very smooth.

There’s similar logjam in the backcourt. Basically, Buddy can’t play the point but the four guys competing for that spot could play his positon. We may see a lot of different combinations. Buddy is basically a classic ‘2’ guard with a terrific shot and the ability to dribble enough to get free for it. He’s not a drive to the basket guy but neither were GMAC, Andy Rautins or Trevor Cooney. He can get some assist and has the smarts and hands to make some steals. His basketball IQ is appropriately high. He can be stopped if the defense focuses on doing that but by pulling guys that far out to guard him, he opens things up for his teammates. He’s got good size at 6-5 188 and will get stronger.

I was surprised that Jalen Carey was listed at 6-3 168. He seems smaller, possibly because he’s often in a crouch, dribbling to the basket. He was great at slipping through the defense to score on lay-ups and dunks in New York and he runs the court very well. He’s very quick and athletic. I haven’t seen him do a lot of passing but if he can make good on his drives, the opportunities will be there. He’s probably another guy that needs to start and have his coach’s confidence and patience to develop. But he’ll be in four way battle for the point and JB will probably have a quick hook for all four of the candidates.

I took a look at Jalen’s high school film to see he seems capable of when he is “the man”:
BEST SCORING GUARD IN NJ?? Jalen Carey Early Season Highlights!!!
I see a quick, smooth player with a good handle, a great first step and quick hands. I also see a jump shot with a higher trajectory than we’ve seen this year.

Howard Washington would be the forgotten man except for his amazing story of having a stroke at age 20 as he was recovering from knee surgery. He was able to text the SU trainer who came to his aid and took him to the hospital, thus saving his life. He’s thus glad to alive, not just glad to be an Orangeman. How much it means to him to become the starting point guard after that will be a factor. Nobody really knows how good he can be. He’s Carey’s size at 6-3 180. He always wanted to be SU’s point guard but JB and the staff wanted Quade Green instead so Howard committed to Butler, then uncommitted when Green opted to go to Kentucky, (he’s since left there to transfer to Mike Hopkins’ team at Washington, where he should make an interesting tandem with Isaiah Stewart). Howard was rated the 14th best combo guard by two47 but there must not be a lot of combo guards because they had him rated #289 overall. His coach said “He’s a great leader, he’s really, really progressed. He can really shoot the ball, he’s terrific when it comes to making reads off of ball screens. Guys like playing with him. He’s good in terms of making sure other guys are involved. He’s an underrated athlete. He’s crafty in his ability to get to different spots on the floor. If there’s a big shot to be had, he’s got the [stones] to step up and make it.”

He seemed tentative early in his freshman year, then started to be more productive, scoring 9 points with 3 rebounds, an assist and a steal against Florida State. Even then he was hardly dazzling. He wound up playing 110 minutes before his injury, recording 19 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Having more rebounds than assists is interesting for a point guard. He must have had an instinct for long rebounds, something we could use. His high school tape shows decent point guard skills:
Howard Washington highlights triple double vs Ridley
Maybe as important he seems to have a point guard’s mentality. I like this interviews, (at the 1 minute mark), where he breaks down a game and sounds like a coach:
Jahvon Blair and Howard Washington - Post Game Interviews

Then there’s Brycen Goodine, whose recruitment has been overshadowed by that of Joe Girard III but who could be a classic Jim Boeheim type of point guard. He’s 6-4 170, smooth and athletic. two47 has him as the 94th best player in his class but the 15th best shooting guard. He’s still another shooting/combo guard that Boeheim wants to convert into a point man. Brycen played for the same school that sent us Michael Carter-Williams. Jeff Kelly of Otto’s Grove: “He’s got a nice stroke from the free throw line, and while he’s not yet a knock-down three point shooter, he is, to use another St. Andrew’s example, much more advanced and has a better looking stroke from outside than Michael Carter-Williams at the same age…. He’s certainly a very good ball handler and uses his size and quickness to get where he needs to be on the floor. I saw him pretty much always make good decisions with the ball when he looked to pass, and he didn’t really try to force anything. That goes for his shot selection, as well…. Defensively, he’s got the potential to be a real difference maker at the top of the 2-3 zone. He’s got long arms, good agility, and anticipates well. He was disruptive on defense,”

His highlight film:
It's TOO EASY for Syracuse Commit Brycen Goodine!! | Shows Out with BABC
Easy is good! I saw everything there I’d want to see- an easy shooting motion, good passing over and through the defense. Good driving ability and he can go up the ladder when he needs to. Whether a ‘1’ or a ‘2’, he’ll be a good player for us. A backcourt of Carey and Goodine would be about as athletic as it gets. (Goodine will be competing in a dunk contest at the Final Four Friday night.)

Then there’s Joe Girard III. He’s one of six players in US high school history to average 50 point a game in a season and he nearly did it twice. He’s led Glens Falls to two New York State Class B football championships and one basketball championship. He comes from the same high school as Jimmer Fredette, the NCAA’s player of the year in 2011. Jimmer scored 2,404 points when he was at Glens Falls. Joe has scored 4,766. Here they are working out together:
Joe Girard III works out with Glens Falls legend Jimmer Fredette
Joe’s a little smaller, (6-1 178 vs. 6-2 195) but, being a football player, he’s well-built. Besides the obvious comparison to Jimmer, he’s been compared to SU’s own Gerry McNamara, (his chief recruiter who will be working with him as an assistant coach at Syracuse) for his incredible shooting ability and range, Eric Devendorf for his ability to dribble-drive to the basket, (he won the state title by dribbling around a double-team and then avoiding a third defender along the base-line to make the game winning shot), and even to SU quarterback Eric Dungey because he quarterbacked that Glen’s Falls team that won those two state titles.

JB and GMAC were in the Dome when Glens Falls won the state football title. Boeheim: "He's a great player. He's a great competitor. He runs the show…He's a competitive kid… The fact that he plays both ways says a lot about his toughness.'' Mike Waters, who covered the game: “He eluded defenders like Keanu Reeves in The Matrix, never seeming to be in a hurry and still avoiding a would-be tackler's grasp.” GMAC: “With Joe coming in and Buddy (Boeheim) being here, we have two of the better shooters out there. Possibly the best shooter in each of the last two classes. His shooting ability translates, but he has some ability off the ball to make plays for himself and others. He can create his own shot. All of the pieces are there.”

The bad news is that the other five guys who averaged 50 points a game are named Bobbie Joe Douglas, Ervin Stepp, Johnny Benjamin, Bennie Fuller and Kent Hyde. Have you ever heard of them? They all built up big numbers playing for small, rural high schools and were unable to duplicate them at the college level. None of them averaged more than 7.5 points per game. The highest scoring player Jim Boeheim had recruited before this was probably Hal Cohen who averaged 35 points a game for a small school, (Canton) and 5.6 over a four year career at SU. He was one half of the “Cohen-Headd” backcourt at SU in the late 70’s, (Coneheads – get it?). Headd, who’d averaged 17.7 points at CBA was the better half, scoring 10.9ppg in his career here….But then he had played at a higher level of high school competition….

Two47 rates Joe the 192nd best player in the country, hardly a glowing review. But Girard chose the Orange over his other finalists Boston College, Duke, Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State. He also had offers from Baylor, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, St. John's and Washington among many others… Last summer, Girard played on the Nike EYBL circuit with the Albany City Rocks. In 16 games, Girard averaged 12.2 points (second on the team to Isaiah Stewart), made 40.8 percent of his shots and 36.6 percent (40-for-109) of his shots from 3-point range.” (Mike Waters, Syracuse.com). That’s quite a statistical come-down from Joe’s Glens Falls numbers, where he was taking most of his team’s shots. But City Rocks was much closer to college level completion than NYS Class B, so that’s a better indicator of what JG3’s numbers in college might be like. But I’d take those numbers at SU. GMAC averaged 13.3ppg, 40.1% from the field and 35.7% from three as a freshman. (And we won the national championship with Gerry hitting 6 three pointers in the first half.) That’s about the same.

Here he is at Dyckman Park in a NYC streetball tournament where he was MVP:
Joe Girard III: NY's Scoring Leader Pulls Up to Dyckman | SLAM Day in the Life
The comments are interesting, pro, con and racist.

Here is one of his many highlight tapes:
Syracuse Commit Joe Girard III GOES OFF for 59 Points! NY HS All-Time Leading Scorer!
I see a guy with range from 25, maybe 30 feet. He’s not a stationary jumper shooter- he sues the dribble to create his own shot, including a nice jab-step. He can drive through (high school) defenses to score. His game is two-dimensional: he doesn’t dunk or even get to the bottom of the backboard on his lay-ups. It’s 1950’s style basketball. He seems to have plenty of swagger, which is OK if you can back it up. I see some passing and some quick hands on defense. I also saw him rather easily backed down to the basket on an opposing players move. The last time we had a short point guard was John Gillon. That worked out offensively but not defensively. GMAC was never a defensive terror. A quote from Dolph Schayes comes to mind: “If I out-score my guy and my teammates outscore their guys, how are we going to lose? I suspect Joe sees it the same way. I like the GMAC with a bit a Devo and bit of Dungey comparison. I’ll take that. I don’t think he’ll be the next Ervin Stepp.

I could see Joe winning the point guard completion or sharing time with Buddy Boeheim at shooting guard. He and Buddy would be quite a pair bombing from the backcourt. (Joe will be participating in a three point contest at the Final Four the same night that Goodine is in the dunk contest.) I think the guard positons are going to be a game of musical chairs and a couple of guys might still be standing when the music stops. Then we’ll see if they want to stick it out here.


Overall, I see a team with plenty of talent, speed and athleticism, although the last two could vary with the line-up. It could be a shorter team, certainly without a 7-2 center. That would also depend on the line-up they use. But I don’t care how tall the players are if they play the game well and we can put a lot of guys out there who can do that. I’m concerned about the rebounding, especially if Brissett doesn’t come back. I don’t know that anybody else on the team has a reputation for excelling in that area. A team like this should get out and run every chance they have. But if they can’t get the ball or have to send everyone to the boards to do it, they won’t be able to run – unless they press. The team is built to press for 40 minutes but we won’t do that. I still see no reason we couldn’t have at least a token press on every possession and then fall back into a zone. We could get turnovers over it and eat up some of the shot clock before the other team can get into their offense. But there is a reason: JB doesn’t like to press, even though he played on teams in high school and college that did it all the time.

One thing I think we will see next year is this offense being executed more like it’s supposed to be. We run pick and roll plays with centers who can’t catch, shoot, dribble or score. I think a healthy Sidbie, Bol Ajak, Edwards, (if we can get him) or Dolezaj could all do that. We still won’t have a post-up scorer but JBA said he was working on that and maybe the others are, too. We should have plenty of firepower outside with at least 2-3 guys at all times who can hit the three. We may have some games where we’ll bomb somebody the way Virginia and Baylor bombed us. I have no idea what kind of defensive team this will be without Chukwu and a whole new backcourt. After a year where we got everyone back but they played worse, we are going to have a situation similar to the couple of years before that when there were several openings and several new pieces to play with that brought different sets of skills to the party.

An ‘X” factor for the team will be a trip to Italy this summer where they will play several games. The NCAA only allows schools to do that every seven years. It gives them not only extra practice time and game experience but is a good team-building exercise. The last time we did this was a tour of Canada in 2013 against their top teams. That fall we began a season in which we won our first 25 games and achieved a #1 ranking. But that was a different team in a different time.

Terrific post, Steve. Thank you for taking the time to provide us with such thorough, thoughtful analysis, and so many relevant links to high school clips and such. That was a very enjoyable read. Thank you.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Reading this I am not sure next year will be much different from this year unless the PG is significantly better.

Hughes as the number 1 option is scary. We need an all-ACC level player.
Hughes was a great 3rd option.

Hughes was starting to drive the ball later in the season, but I agree, he's got his limitations. He's much more of a jump shooter. Partnering him with Guerrier is really solid. Guerrier appears to be a better version of Brissett. He has a nicer outside shot, and he has better strength getting to the rim on his drives.

The Edwards kids from IMG / Holland looks OK, but he doesn't look like an ACC level starter next year, do you think? I don't believe Sidibe is going to get any better. I think it's like a Coleman situation where he will have a chronic knee problem now, and we'll never see the player he was in High School. That's really unfortunate for the kid, because he was the prospect at center I've been most excited about since probably Rakeem Christmas.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Next: People have been discussing what the team might be like next season, so I’ll add my views. The problem is that you can’t really know what the team will be like until you know who will actually be on it. There are many ways to lose players these days and many ways to acquire them, which means that both could happen at many different times.

You can recruit players from high school, prep school or junior college. You can take in transfers. Undergrad transfers have to sit out a year but grad transferred can use a loophole to play immediately. You can recruit players from abroad. Players can be granted extra years for medical reasons. I’ve felt for years that if players leave early and their pro careers haven’t worked out they should be able to come back school to get their degree, play for the school team until their eligibility runs out and maybe kick-start their careers. It would be like a prospect going back to the minors to work things out or a non-athlete returning to college to get a degree they need to enhance or change their career. Jonny Flynn, Donte Greene, Paul Harris, Chris McCullough, come home! It would be a way to get some of the talent we keep losing back.

You can lose players to graduation, (or at least an end of eligibility). Some guys transfer. Foreign players have a reputation for going home early to play in their pro leagues. The NBA could come calling, or at least players could hear their call in their minds. One of Syracuse’s big problems is that we lose players early to the pros who, (after Carmelo) are not the sort of players who are going to win you a national title in a year or two but might help do it if they stayed for four years. (I have never understood why the NBA, a league that pulls in talent from around the globe and has the smallest rosters and line-ups isn’t much more selective than they are with their draft picks.) We’ve seen school after school win the title with four year players but we can’t seem to get there because we can’t seem to keep our players here. Then there are injuries, disciplinary and legal problems and academic problems. In 2017 we started with 10 players. One of them never showed up, another left two weeks into the season and a third tore up his knee and suddenly we were down to 7 guys.

The numbers game is interesting. We had 11 recruited players on this year’s team. I prefer that term to scholarship players because JB, who walked on when he was a player, likes to give available scholarships to walk-ons. He prefers not to have more than 10-11 recruited players even though the NCAA allows 13 because the last couple of guys will never play and could become disgruntled and cause problems. He also wants flexibility: he doesn’t want to tie up a scholarship for four years that could go to a better player in the next class. Ten guys gives him completion for positons, depth, (even in 2018 we were able to get to the Sweet 16 without the three guys we lost), and he can scrimmage 5 on 5 with all recruited players, which is a better way to prepare for the other guy’s recruited players than being guarded by a walk-on.

Of the 11 recruited players on the 2019 team, two are seniors, Paschal Chukwu and Frank Howard. There was talk that Paschal could apply for a medical redshirt because in 2017 he got hit in the eye with a stray ball and had to have an operation. He played only 7 games that year and that was few enough that he could be granted an additional year. He was even asked about it by a local reporter and said he’d decide after the season whether to apply for the extra year. Jim Boeheim, on his radio show, said that Paschal could not apply for the extra year because he sat out a year after his transfer and you can’t do both. Why that would prevent it I don’t know and the reporter said that he’d been unable to find anything that said in NCAA rules. But Paschal would be 24 years old next season and we’ve heard nothing about him applying for the medical redshirt so I would presume that he won’t be back. Tyus Battle has formally announced that he’s finally going pro, even though he isn’t on any draft boards. That gets us down to 8 recruited players. Jim has gotten commitments from four high school players and is pursuing a fifth guy. That would get him up to 13 guys, which would be OK with the NCAA but contrary to Jim’s historical tendency. I asked him about that on his show and he said “The likelihood of everybody coming back is small.” Then we heard that Oshae Brissett was “testing the waters”. I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost him and maybe someone else and that Jim knew or thought we might when I asked him that.

The only thing I can do now is to speculate on what next year’s team would look like if Oshae came back and we got that fifth guy with the acknowledgement that things could change if some of them aren’t there when practice starts next fall.

Bourama Sidibe will have the inside track on the positon most of thought he would win two years ago. I think he could more than adequately fill it if fully healthy. But will he ever be fully healthy? He’s still listed as 6-10 205 but I think that must have been a reading from when he was recruited. I’d say he’s more like 220 by now, not bulky but not really skinny in the way Chukwu and Dolezaj are. I went back to his high school tape to see what he looked like when fully ambulatory:
I see him do several things we never saw from Chukwu: jump shots, drives to the basket, athletic blocks not just based on his height and alley oops where he actually catches the ball. If he can do those things, he’ll be a significant upgrade over Chukwu. But that’s a big if.

The center recruit we know we have is John Bol Ajak, (I’ve heard it pronounced as if it was one word: Bowl-a-jack), who was rated the 32nd best prospect in his class in the summer of 2017 by the two47 website. Then he suffered an Achilles injury and then a hip injury. He wasn’t able to play much or well. His ranking slipped all the way to #410 and the #68 center. That didn’t impress Syracuse fans but the coaching staff stuck with him and he stuck with them and committed to come here. He’s another in a long line of ‘project’ big men from countries where they didn’t grow up playing the game after Fab Melo, Baye Keita, Rakeem Christmas, (who grew up in the Virgin Islands), Chinoso Obokoh, Chukwu and Sidibe. JB always says that big men take longer to develop – they are “growing into their bodies” and that foreign players who didn’t grow up playing the game also take longer so a foreign big man can take doubly long. We need somebody who can help us next season.

On the bright side, he seems to have recovered from his injuries and is supposed to be playing better so we may get someone who is closer to his peak #32 ranking than his current #410 ranking, which appears to need revision. I liked this interview with JBA in which he describes his game:
JOHN BOL AJAK commits to SYRACUSE (2019 Westtown School)
He sounds like a hard-working, ambitious young man and his description of his game is that of a skilled offensive player who wants to get better. He certainly seems to have a skill set very different from what we’ve seen from Chuwku the last few years:
6' 11" JOHN BOL AJAK Westtown School c/o 2019 (Syracuse Commit)
Two47 lists him as 6-10 205 but he says in the tape that he’s 6-11 and somebody said he was up to 240 now. I hope he develops that inside game he was talking about to balance his skills. I know nothing about his defensive capabilities.

The fifth recruit JB is still going after is 6-11 205 Jesse Edwards from the Netherlands, who arrived in the US in the fall and is playing for IMG academy in Florida, where a lot of top prospects go. He was first reported as weighing only 188 pounds but is now listed at 205. He’s not rated at all by the sources that do such things because he just got to this country. The IMG coach: ““He’s long and a typical skilled Euro big. More of a face up five man than back to the basket guy. Has range up to 15-17 feet. Solid low post package. Can pass, dribble and shoot. With his length, he is a very good rim protector. Gets better every day and has loads of potential.” There is a highlight film on him:
Highlights: Syracuse basketball recruit Jesse Edwards of IMG Academy
Again, I see things Chukwu could never do: jump shots and drives to the basket. Again, not much there about defense.

Critics claim that JB doesn’t recruit offensive centers. He’s certainly trying to. He wanted Isaiah Stewart and Tre Mitchell, two muscular inside scorers but didn’t get them. His protégé Mike Hopkins, who had been the lead recruiter on Stewart, convinced him to come out Washington. We then focused on Mitchell but were never in front for him because we came in so late. So these guys who can shoot and drive will be it for now. For several years the ‘pick and roll’ had been a part of our offense but you wouldn’t know it because our bigs couldn’t catch the ball, dribble it or score. These three guys have the ability to do that. That would be a major upgrade to our offense. What our defense will be like with Bol Ajak or Edwards in the middle, I don’t know. If they can keep their motors running for 40 minutes that would be an improvement over what we’ve had.

If Sidibe is still having physical problems and the other guys aren’t ready or come up short, we are back to Marek Dolezaj playing center. He’s an interesting player but he’s not an ACC center by any definition so that will be a failure.

We’re going to be loaded at forward, even if Oshae Brissett doesn’t come back. If he does, I want to him stronger with a stronger handle. I’d also like to see him work on a medium range and a pull-up jumper. I saw pays where he got the ball inside of the three point line and wasn’t going to dribble back out to it. So his only option seemed to be, (in modern basketball thinking), to drive into the teeth of the defense and try to find a way to corkscrew through all the arms and the legs to score. The defenders weren’t coming out to guard him and his occasional three pointers didn’t change that. If he could score from 10-15 feet, they would have to come out and get him and that would open things up for his drives.

If Oshae doesn’t come back, (and if somebody emerges at center), then Marek Dolezaj will finally get a chance to operate at his natural positon at this level: power forward. If that happens, I think we’ll his confidence and aggressiveness increase. We’ll see him hit three pointers and medium-range shots, occasionally drive to the basket, feed the post and also pass it back out for three pointers, (which always seem more likely to go in when the shooter is already squared to the basket and the pass comes back out to him rather than from the side). He can also block shots and make steals. Starting and getting starter’s minutes in his natural position could be the key for him.

Elijah Hughes will have to make the same conversion Tyus Battle did two years ago: from a 3rd option to the primary option, with the attendant defensive attention. Tyus made that conversion very well and believe Elijah will, too. He’s athletic and a fine shooter. He needs to learn to drive to the basket much more than he does. He’s actually a better jump shooter than Tyus was, with much better range.

Robert Braswell looked like a gem when he played, putting up both prolific and efficient numbers and looking like he already knew exactly what was going on out there. He can shoot it and might be the best athlete on the team. The only reservation was that he was playing against reserves and walk-ons and his stats come from a very small sample, (55 minutes played all year). But he looked like a future star. The question is: will he get to show it? If Brissett is back, Dolezaj doesn’t go home and here comes Quincy Guerrier, where is Braswell’s place? He, like Dolezaj, would probably benefit from Brissett leaving, even if the team wouldn’t. As with Sidibie, I decided to look at Braswell’s high school film to remind me of the skills he’s capable of:
Senior Year Highlights
I not only see good outside shooting, some dramatic dunks and blocks but also a couple of terrific, Leo Rautins-style laser passes from way outside to the baseline that suggest excellent court vision.

Quincy Guerrier maybe the best of the incoming recruits. People compare him to Oshae Brissett because he’s a similar size and is also from Canada. He says he’s a better shooter than Oshae. Others have suggested C. J. Fair, who could hit the outside shot but was more of a drive-to-the-basket guy who had an array of pull-ups and floaters to supplement his lay-ups and dunks. Quincy is another foreign player who doesn’t appear some rankings but the Syracuse.com said he was the equivalent of a top 50 recruit. He’s said to be the best recruit in Canada. He was going to enroll in January and begin working out with his future teammates but there was a snag in getting the good old NCAA to approve his transcript, which had to be translated from the French. His coach said “He might be short a credit so he might have to take another class here.” Uh-Oh!

Donna Ditota in Syracuse.com described him as “a 6-foot-7 physically imposing forward… At 19 years old, the future Syracuse basketball forward has built a body that already looks rugged enough to play with pros. He is 6-foot-7 and a sculpted 220 pounds. When he scrimmaged on his recruiting visit with Syracuse players last fall, Guerrier appeared bigger and brawnier than most of his future teammates”, (Brissett is 6-8, 210). Red Autry: “The biggest thing I saw about him that I initially liked was his size, his dimensions. He fits what we do. And from a game standpoint, you know what he does. He scores. That’s something you rarely find. A lot of times kids try to do a lot of different things. And you can just tell he’s an attacker, he’s an aggressive offensive player. He competes and he plays extremely hard.” Brissett: “He’s going to be a shock to a lot of people. Offensively and defensively as well. He has a great motor. He wants to win. That’s his main thing.”

“Guerrier believes his shooting stroke is the best part of his offensive game, but Appiah says simply “he’s a scorer.” Appiah worries that Guerrier sometimes “falls in love with that jump shot.” He wants him to use his size and his strength to work defenders in the post or shed them with his dribble.” That would make him similar to Hughes, who has a similar build at 6-6, 215. Here are Quincy’s highlights:
Quincy Guerrier Mixtape - BREAK OUT Season!
I saw some nice-looking jumpers and dunks, an occasional graceful drive the basket. He looks like a good player but my eyes didn’t bug out. He just looked very smooth.

There’s similar logjam in the backcourt. Basically, Buddy can’t play the point but the four guys competing for that spot could play his positon. We may see a lot of different combinations. Buddy is basically a classic ‘2’ guard with a terrific shot and the ability to dribble enough to get free for it. He’s not a drive to the basket guy but neither were GMAC, Andy Rautins or Trevor Cooney. He can get some assist and has the smarts and hands to make some steals. His basketball IQ is appropriately high. He can be stopped if the defense focuses on doing that but by pulling guys that far out to guard him, he opens things up for his teammates. He’s got good size at 6-5 188 and will get stronger.

I was surprised that Jalen Carey was listed at 6-3 168. He seems smaller, possibly because he’s often in a crouch, dribbling to the basket. He was great at slipping through the defense to score on lay-ups and dunks in New York and he runs the court very well. He’s very quick and athletic. I haven’t seen him do a lot of passing but if he can make good on his drives, the opportunities will be there. He’s probably another guy that needs to start and have his coach’s confidence and patience to develop. But he’ll be in four way battle for the point and JB will probably have a quick hook for all four of the candidates.

I took a look at Jalen’s high school film to see he seems capable of when he is “the man”:
BEST SCORING GUARD IN NJ?? Jalen Carey Early Season Highlights!!!
I see a quick, smooth player with a good handle, a great first step and quick hands. I also see a jump shot with a higher trajectory than we’ve seen this year.

Howard Washington would be the forgotten man except for his amazing story of having a stroke at age 20 as he was recovering from knee surgery. He was able to text the SU trainer who came to his aid and took him to the hospital, thus saving his life. He’s thus glad to alive, not just glad to be an Orangeman. How much it means to him to become the starting point guard after that will be a factor. Nobody really knows how good he can be. He’s Carey’s size at 6-3 180. He always wanted to be SU’s point guard but JB and the staff wanted Quade Green instead so Howard committed to Butler, then uncommitted when Green opted to go to Kentucky, (he’s since left there to transfer to Mike Hopkins’ team at Washington, where he should make an interesting tandem with Isaiah Stewart). Howard was rated the 14th best combo guard by two47 but there must not be a lot of combo guards because they had him rated #289 overall. His coach said “He’s a great leader, he’s really, really progressed. He can really shoot the ball, he’s terrific when it comes to making reads off of ball screens. Guys like playing with him. He’s good in terms of making sure other guys are involved. He’s an underrated athlete. He’s crafty in his ability to get to different spots on the floor. If there’s a big shot to be had, he’s got the [stones] to step up and make it.”

He seemed tentative early in his freshman year, then started to be more productive, scoring 9 points with 3 rebounds, an assist and a steal against Florida State. Even then he was hardly dazzling. He wound up playing 110 minutes before his injury, recording 19 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. Having more rebounds than assists is interesting for a point guard. He must have had an instinct for long rebounds, something we could use. His high school tape shows decent point guard skills:
Howard Washington highlights triple double vs Ridley
Maybe as important he seems to have a point guard’s mentality. I like this interviews, (at the 1 minute mark), where he breaks down a game and sounds like a coach:
Jahvon Blair and Howard Washington - Post Game Interviews

Then there’s Brycen Goodine, whose recruitment has been overshadowed by that of Joe Girard III but who could be a classic Jim Boeheim type of point guard. He’s 6-4 170, smooth and athletic. two47 has him as the 94th best player in his class but the 15th best shooting guard. He’s still another shooting/combo guard that Boeheim wants to convert into a point man. Brycen played for the same school that sent us Michael Carter-Williams. Jeff Kelly of Otto’s Grove: “He’s got a nice stroke from the free throw line, and while he’s not yet a knock-down three point shooter, he is, to use another St. Andrew’s example, much more advanced and has a better looking stroke from outside than Michael Carter-Williams at the same age…. He’s certainly a very good ball handler and uses his size and quickness to get where he needs to be on the floor. I saw him pretty much always make good decisions with the ball when he looked to pass, and he didn’t really try to force anything. That goes for his shot selection, as well…. Defensively, he’s got the potential to be a real difference maker at the top of the 2-3 zone. He’s got long arms, good agility, and anticipates well. He was disruptive on defense,”

His highlight film:
It's TOO EASY for Syracuse Commit Brycen Goodine!! | Shows Out with BABC
Easy is good! I saw everything there I’d want to see- an easy shooting motion, good passing over and through the defense. Good driving ability and he can go up the ladder when he needs to. Whether a ‘1’ or a ‘2’, he’ll be a good player for us. A backcourt of Carey and Goodine would be about as athletic as it gets. (Goodine will be competing in a dunk contest at the Final Four Friday night.)

Then there’s Joe Girard III. He’s one of six players in US high school history to average 50 point a game in a season and he nearly did it twice. He’s led Glens Falls to two New York State Class B football championships and one basketball championship. He comes from the same high school as Jimmer Fredette, the NCAA’s player of the year in 2011. Jimmer scored 2,404 points when he was at Glens Falls. Joe has scored 4,766. Here they are working out together:
Joe Girard III works out with Glens Falls legend Jimmer Fredette
Joe’s a little smaller, (6-1 178 vs. 6-2 195) but, being a football player, he’s well-built. Besides the obvious comparison to Jimmer, he’s been compared to SU’s own Gerry McNamara, (his chief recruiter who will be working with him as an assistant coach at Syracuse) for his incredible shooting ability and range, Eric Devendorf for his ability to dribble-drive to the basket, (he won the state title by dribbling around a double-team and then avoiding a third defender along the base-line to make the game winning shot), and even to SU quarterback Eric Dungey because he quarterbacked that Glen’s Falls team that won those two state titles.

JB and GMAC were in the Dome when Glens Falls won the state football title. Boeheim: "He's a great player. He's a great competitor. He runs the show…He's a competitive kid… The fact that he plays both ways says a lot about his toughness.'' Mike Waters, who covered the game: “He eluded defenders like Keanu Reeves in The Matrix, never seeming to be in a hurry and still avoiding a would-be tackler's grasp.” GMAC: “With Joe coming in and Buddy (Boeheim) being here, we have two of the better shooters out there. Possibly the best shooter in each of the last two classes. His shooting ability translates, but he has some ability off the ball to make plays for himself and others. He can create his own shot. All of the pieces are there.”

The bad news is that the other five guys who averaged 50 points a game are named Bobbie Joe Douglas, Ervin Stepp, Johnny Benjamin, Bennie Fuller and Kent Hyde. Have you ever heard of them? They all built up big numbers playing for small, rural high schools and were unable to duplicate them at the college level. None of them averaged more than 7.5 points per game. The highest scoring player Jim Boeheim had recruited before this was probably Hal Cohen who averaged 35 points a game for a small school, (Canton) and 5.6 over a four year career at SU. He was one half of the “Cohen-Headd” backcourt at SU in the late 70’s, (Coneheads – get it?). Headd, who’d averaged 17.7 points at CBA was the better half, scoring 10.9ppg in his career here….But then he had played at a higher level of high school competition….

Two47 rates Joe the 192nd best player in the country, hardly a glowing review. But Girard chose the Orange over his other finalists Boston College, Duke, Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State. He also had offers from Baylor, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, St. John's and Washington among many others… Last summer, Girard played on the Nike EYBL circuit with the Albany City Rocks. In 16 games, Girard averaged 12.2 points (second on the team to Isaiah Stewart), made 40.8 percent of his shots and 36.6 percent (40-for-109) of his shots from 3-point range.” (Mike Waters, Syracuse.com). That’s quite a statistical come-down from Joe’s Glens Falls numbers, where he was taking most of his team’s shots. But City Rocks was much closer to college level completion than NYS Class B, so that’s a better indicator of what JG3’s numbers in college might be like. But I’d take those numbers at SU. GMAC averaged 13.3ppg, 40.1% from the field and 35.7% from three as a freshman. (And we won the national championship with Gerry hitting 6 three pointers in the first half.) That’s about the same.

Here he is at Dyckman Park in a NYC streetball tournament where he was MVP:
Joe Girard III: NY's Scoring Leader Pulls Up to Dyckman | SLAM Day in the Life
The comments are interesting, pro, con and racist.

Here is one of his many highlight tapes:
Syracuse Commit Joe Girard III GOES OFF for 59 Points! NY HS All-Time Leading Scorer!
I see a guy with range from 25, maybe 30 feet. He’s not a stationary jumper shooter- he sues the dribble to create his own shot, including a nice jab-step. He can drive through (high school) defenses to score. His game is two-dimensional: he doesn’t dunk or even get to the bottom of the backboard on his lay-ups. It’s 1950’s style basketball. He seems to have plenty of swagger, which is OK if you can back it up. I see some passing and some quick hands on defense. I also saw him rather easily backed down to the basket on an opposing players move. The last time we had a short point guard was John Gillon. That worked out offensively but not defensively. GMAC was never a defensive terror. A quote from Dolph Schayes comes to mind: “If I out-score my guy and my teammates outscore their guys, how are we going to lose? I suspect Joe sees it the same way. I like the GMAC with a bit a Devo and bit of Dungey comparison. I’ll take that. I don’t think he’ll be the next Ervin Stepp.

I could see Joe winning the point guard completion or sharing time with Buddy Boeheim at shooting guard. He and Buddy would be quite a pair bombing from the backcourt. (Joe will be participating in a three point contest at the Final Four the same night that Goodine is in the dunk contest.) I think the guard positons are going to be a game of musical chairs and a couple of guys might still be standing when the music stops. Then we’ll see if they want to stick it out here.


Overall, I see a team with plenty of talent, speed and athleticism, although the last two could vary with the line-up. It could be a shorter team, certainly without a 7-2 center. That would also depend on the line-up they use. But I don’t care how tall the players are if they play the game well and we can put a lot of guys out there who can do that. I’m concerned about the rebounding, especially if Brissett doesn’t come back. I don’t know that anybody else on the team has a reputation for excelling in that area. A team like this should get out and run every chance they have. But if they can’t get the ball or have to send everyone to the boards to do it, they won’t be able to run – unless they press. The team is built to press for 40 minutes but we won’t do that. I still see no reason we couldn’t have at least a token press on every possession and then fall back into a zone. We could get turnovers over it and eat up some of the shot clock before the other team can get into their offense. But there is a reason: JB doesn’t like to press, even though he played on teams in high school and college that did it all the time.

One thing I think we will see next year is this offense being executed more like it’s supposed to be. We run pick and roll plays with centers who can’t catch, shoot, dribble or score. I think a healthy Sidbie, Bol Ajak, Edwards, (if we can get him) or Dolezaj could all do that. We still won’t have a post-up scorer but JBA said he was working on that and maybe the others are, too. We should have plenty of firepower outside with at least 2-3 guys at all times who can hit the three. We may have some games where we’ll bomb somebody the way Virginia and Baylor bombed us. I have no idea what kind of defensive team this will be without Chukwu and a whole new backcourt. After a year where we got everyone back but they played worse, we are going to have a situation similar to the couple of years before that when there were several openings and several new pieces to play with that brought different sets of skills to the party.

An ‘X” factor for the team will be a trip to Italy this summer where they will play several games. The NCAA only allows schools to do that every seven years. It gives them not only extra practice time and game experience but is a good team-building exercise. The last time we did this was a tour of Canada in 2013 against their top teams. That fall we began a season in which we won our first 25 games and achieved a #1 ranking. But that was a different team in a different time.

Loved your analysis!

One thing about Brycen Goodine - to me, he kind of has a game like a more athletic Tyler Ennis; when he has the ball, he doesn't seem like he's in a rush. I would love to see us start Goodine and Carey and bring Buddy off the bench as the 6th man. Less pressure on Buddy, who people will expect to be a star next year, and an athletic as hell starting backcourt.

 

[Sherman20]

Reading this I am not sure next year will be much different from this year unless the PG is significantly better.

Hughes as the number 1 option is scary. We need an all-ACC level player.
Hughes was a great 3rd option.

Hughes could be a good #1 option. His ability to drive is better than some people want to give him credit for. He just needs to do it more and work really hard on his handle in the off season. Quincy could also be a good primary offensive option. But he’ll be a freshman so you never know if it’ll pan out that quickly. I hope and think it will. He’s a really good offensive player—and strong. Hopefully Oshae comes back too (though that could create a bit of a logjam at forward).

I see the guard rotation as Carey, Goodine and Buddy, with Goodine able to play both the PG and SG spots. Girard is a wild card who could get some spot minutes at shooting guard behind Buddy. Not sure I see him winning the PG job this year. JB could actually end up playing 4 guys in the backcourt, which would be very unusual for him. But he did it a bit during the 2003 championship season with Gerry, Billy Edelin, Duany and Josh Pace. He rotated all four into the backcourt at times.

 

[SWC75]

I'd just like to see what our offense would look like if we had five guys one the court at once who all can score. It's been a while since we'd have that and it's hard to judge an offense without it.