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[QUOTE="PoppyHart, post: 72128, member: 515"]
I agree that GROB sucks. I never said otherwise. I'm just saying that Marrone ain't all that. GROB lost more than his fair share of 50-50 games. Marrone has won more than his fair share of toss-ups. Regress that to the mean and they look pretty similar.

In baseball, one of the advanced stats is batting average on balls put in play. If a pitcher is doing significant;y above the norm, he's likely to come down to earth, and vice-versa. I think this is similar. By my calculation, before tonight, Marrone is 9-4 in games decided by 7 points or less. GROB is 5-5. I attribute that to Marrone's clock/game management skills.

If Marrone won those games at the same (lower) rate as GROB, (say 6-7), he'd be 14-21. Normalize it further for the fact that GROB played only 1 FCS team while Marrone played 4 (say, by pretending the 3 games extra FCS games were never played), and he's 11-21. Or you could say he would have gone 1-2 in those 3 extra FCS games if payed against FBS schools (roughly similar % as 14-21), and he's 12-23. Any way you slice it, neither coach has been very good.
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