This Year vs. Last Year - Fun with Advanced Metrics

[IthacaMatt]

I've been a stat head since I was a kid, but I have shied away from modern advanced metrics to an extent. Maybe that's because I've been watching Syracuse sports for over 50 years, and I trust my own eyes / judgment at this point. Or maybe I'm just too lazy to look things up.

But this time I did. Here are the current season's Advanced Stats, followed by last year's below. Then I'll talk about what I see in the numbers, and I invite your responses.

2024-25 Advanced Stats:

And here are last year's advanced stats:

Discussion:

I better understand why everyone has been so hard on Starling, certainly based off last year's performance. He was maybe the least effective player on our team last year, and had the worst +/- (an admittedly flawed stat, but still useful in my eyes) of anyone on last year's team. This year, though, Starling is clearly our most improved player. While he still remains a bit below average defensively, he is light years ahead of last season.

Last year, Maliq Brown and Judah Mintz were both better than anyone we have on this year's roster. Mintz's defensive rating is actually noticeably above average. Yet, despite being a "better" player in the eyes of the Advanced metrics, Mintz's +/- is a negative 17. That was on a 20 win team, a clearly better team than we have this year.

On this year's team, our top 4 rated guys ALL have positive +/- ratings on a clearly worse team. So, to me, that's where the Advanced Stats meet the eye test. How could Judah have a negative plus/minus? From all the yapping at the refs and failure to get back on defense. Sure, when he bothered to get back, he could prevent his guy from scoring, but he just didn't do it with any consistency. This is where Bob Knight was right - defense is about effort, not necessarily talent.

Here's a surprise. Maliq Brown was our best player last year. I think most people agree with this. The surprise is that Eddie is pretty close to Maliq in defensive efficiency, and as a team, we actually are more efficient this year when Eddie is on the floor than when Maliq played. Maliq's hidden contributions to our offense (offensive rebounds, and in particular his interior passing) made us a much more efficient team offensively than Eddie does.

On last year's team, only Chris Bell was a worse defender than Starling, according to the stats. This year, Starling is about our 3rd best defender (roughly tied with Moore), despite still being below average. This year's team has SO MANY terrible defenders. But who has the absolute worst +/-? Yes, it's Jaquan Carlos. So, eyes and advanced stats sometimes agree! (Bell is still terrible, by the way ...)

Some people here didn't think that Petar was good enough to play for Syracuse. Too slow. Guess what? He's our 2nd best defensive player, after Eddie. Miles better than Mr. McDonald's AA, although Freeman is playing well offensively.

Another surprise for me was that Jyare Davis is getting lit up defensively. He is almost on par with Freeman offensively, according to the stats. That's one I wasn't expecting.

Here's another - while Kyle Cuffe had a bad year last year, and hardly got to play in his first 10 games or so, one of our most efficient offensive lineups is with him on the floor. Same with Petar, even though those guys are not scorers. So, the ball must be moving better when those guys are on the floor.

Your turn - what do you see in here that either supports things you've been saying, or that surprised you?

 

[M2MPrinciples]

I choose to side with everything that confirms my preconceived notions and dismiss everything else as statistical noise and/or witchcraft.

 

[kcsu]

I've been a stat head since I was a kid, but I have shied away from modern advanced metrics to an extent. Maybe that's because I've been watching Syracuse sports for over 50 years, and I trust my own eyes / judgment at this point. Or maybe I'm just too lazy to look things up.

But this time I did. Here are the current season's Advanced Stats, followed by last year's below. Then I'll talk about what I see in the numbers, and I invite your responses.

2024-25 Advanced Stats:

View attachment 248690

And here are last year's advanced stats:

View attachment 248691

Discussion:

I better understand why everyone has been so hard on Starling, certainly based off last year's performance. He was maybe the least effective player on our team last year, and had the worst +/- (an admittedly flawed stat, but still useful in my eyes) of anyone on last year's team. This year, though, Starling is clearly our most improved player. While he still remains a bit below average defensively, he is light years ahead of last season.

Last year, Maliq Brown and Judah Mintz were both better than anyone we have on this year's roster. Mintz's defensive rating is actually noticeably above average. Yet, despite being a "better" player in the eyes of the Advanced metrics, Mintz's +/- is a negative 17. That was on a 20 win team, a clearly better team than we have this year.

On this year's team, our top 4 rated guys ALL have positive +/- ratings on a clearly worse team. So, to me, that's where the Advanced Stats meet the eye test. How could Judah have a negative plus/minus? From all the yapping at the refs and failure to get back on defense. Sure, when he bothered to get back, he could prevent his guy from scoring, but he just didn't do it with any consistency. This is where Bob Knight was right - defense is about effort, not necessarily talent.

Here's a surprise. Maliq Brown was our best player last year. I think most people agree with this. The surprise is that Eddie is pretty close to Maliq in defensive efficiency, and as a team, we actually are more efficient this year when Eddie is on the floor than when Maliq played. Maliq's hidden contributions to our offense (offensive rebounds, and in particular his interior passing) made us a much more efficient team offensively than Eddie does.

On last year's team, only Chris Bell was a worse defender than Starling, according to the stats. This year, Starling is about our 3rd best defender (roughly tied with Moore), despite still being below average. This year's team has SO MANY terrible defenders. But who has the absolute worst +/-? Yes, it's Jaquan Carlos. So, eyes and advanced stats sometimes agree! (Bell is still terrible, by the way ...)

Some people here didn't think that Petar was good enough to play for Syracuse. Too slow. Guess what? He's our 2nd best defensive player, after Eddie. Miles better than Mr. McDonald's AA, although Freeman is playing well offensively.

Another surprise for me was that Jyare Davis is getting lit up defensively. He is almost on par with Freeman offensively, according to the stats. That's one I wasn't expecting.

Here's another - while Kyle Cuffe had a bad year last year, and hardly got to play in his first 10 games or so, one of our most efficient offensive lineups is with him on the floor. Same with Petar, even though those guys are not scorers. So, the ball must be moving better when those guys are on the floor.

Your turn - what do you see in here that either supports things you've been saying, or that surprised you?

Great work thank you. I bet Steve is proud of you

 

[Fly Rodder]

Here's a surprise. Maliq Brown was our best player last year. I think most people agree with this. The surprise is that Eddie is pretty close to Maliq in defensive efficiency, and as a team, we actually are more efficient this year when Eddie is on the floor than when Maliq played.

It is surprising to see the DBPR, but the box DBPR is not even close and well in favor of Maliq. One thing to keep in mind is that this is in half as many possessions for Eddie and the games that he's played so far have been mostly the non-con teams while Maliq's was for a full season and all conference games. Also, if you look at the Box DPBR, Maliq blows Eddie out of the water. There's a reason why he was coveted by Duke and this season he's 4th in the ACC Box DBPR despite limited minutes. When he plays, he's an outstanding defender.

Secondly, if you look at the definitions for the stats, the DBPR "rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor." Whereas Box DBPR "is an estimate of a player’s defensive value, based only on his individual box stats" To me, that means that Eddie's teammates make him a capable defender this season (I think this is related to Eddie being paired with Donnie Freeman as a PF in the paint while Maliq was paired with Justin Taylor).

 

[IthacaMatt]

It is surprising to see the DBPR, but the box DBPR is not even close and well in favor of Maliq. One thing to keep in mind is that this is in half as many possessions for Eddie and the games that he's played so far have been mostly the non-con teams while Maliq's was for a full season and all conference games. Also, if you look at the Box DPBR, Maliq blows Eddie out of the water. There's a reason why he was coveted by Duke and this season he's 4th in the ACC Box DBPR despite limited minutes. When he plays, he's an outstanding defender.

Secondly, if you look at the definitions for the stats, the DBPR "rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor." Whereas Box DBPR "is an estimate of a player’s defensive value, based only on his individual box stats" To me, that means that Eddie's teammates make him a capable defender this season (I think this is related to Eddie being paired with Donnie Freeman as a PF in the paint while Maliq was paired with Justin Taylor).

Yes, we all agree that Maliq was better at certain things. And yes, the other guys on the defense affect any individual player's team defensive efficiency rating.

But the surprising fact remains - the overall team defensive efficiency with Eddie, versus last year with Maliq, are pretty close.

How is that possible, you should ask yourself, when nearly every guy on this year's team has a lower defensive rating than the guys on last year's team?

 

[djcon57]

Yes, we all agree that Maliq was better at certain things. And yes, the other guys on the defense affect any individual player's team defensive efficiency rating.

But the surprising fact remains - the overall team defensive efficiency with Eddie, versus last year with Maliq, are pretty close.

How is that possible, you should ask yourself, when nearly every guy on this year's team has a lower defensive rating than the guys on last year's team?

They are pretty close on Jan 14th. If they are similar by end of the year you have a point.

 

[Orangezoo]

Yes, we all agree that Maliq was better at certain things. And yes, the other guys on the defense affect any individual player's team defensive efficiency rating.

But the surprising fact remains - the overall team defensive efficiency with Eddie, versus last year with Maliq, are pretty close.

How is that possible, you should ask yourself, when nearly every guy on this year's team has a lower defensive rating than the guys on last year's team?

Well while we had more wins last year - the performance against good teams is similar as a whole to last year. So as the season progresses I don’t think the numbers will be all that far off last year. That isn’t really a knock on Maliq or a big bump for Eddie. It’s still a weak roster and very poor defensive team.

 

[DCUNITED13]

Are we a better rebounding team this year? How do rebounds play a role in calculating the numbers?

 

[Fly Rodder]

the overall team defensive efficiency with Eddie, versus last year with Maliq, are pretty close

I think you're confusing a couple of statistics. If I'm reading the that stat the right way, Maliq and Eddie have been responsible for a similar percentage of the overall team defense, but the defense was (relatively) a lot better last season.

Last season the D-Rating on BBRef was 104.9 (207th of 362). This season its 107.3 (293rd of 364), it's barely 2.4 points per 100 possessions, but it dropped 86 places.
In KP metrics, in 23-24 it was 101.4 (85th of 362) and 104.9 (145th of 364) this season.
From Evan Miya, in 23-24 the team D-rating was 3.4 (96th out of 362) and this season it is 0.8 (149th of 364).
From Bart Torvik, in 23-24 the team D-rating was 100.8 (86th out of 362) and this season it is 106.6 (183rd of 364).

Also, they've only played a little more than a half season so far and more importantly, the harder half is up next. Well, so far as the ACC goes which has been mostly not great.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Are we a better rebounding team this year? How do rebounds play a role in calculating the numbers?

1) Yes. At least defensively. This season they rebound 30% of their misses and limit their opponent to 24.7% of their misses.
Last season they only rebounded 24% of their misses and allowed their opponent to rebound 31.9% of their misses.
2) I'll defer to others about the guts of the rating statistics, but as far as I know rebounds don't directly go into the efficiency ratings. And different sites use slightly different algorithms. But more rebounds mean more possessions and the efficiency ratings are directly correlated with points scored and given up per possession relative to other teams and the league as a whole.

 

[ar inj]

The advanced stats might be interesting to some but they are not telling me anything I cannot see.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Are we a better rebounding team this year? How do rebounds play a role in calculating the numbers?

Yes, we're a much better rebounding team this year, mostly on the defensive end. Our offensive rebounding has historically usually been better than this.

How that figures into these advanced metrics, I can't say. Every statistician has a methodology, and they weight different things differently. Stats can only tell you so much. That's why there is such a thing as talent evaluators.

Being around coaches and people who do this for a living, you learn things if you just listen. And then watch what they suggest you look for - and then suddenly you see what they are looking at. That counts at least as much as the stats.

Just look at baseball. Advanced stats have turned the game into home run derby. Baseball sucks now, mostly because people don't really understand how to play the game. If you don't have a lineup full of home run hitters, how do you win in today's game? Stealing bases, the hit & run, moving up a runner, sacrifice bunts, sac flies. All of these elements of the game are like lost knowledge from an ancient time.

Advanced stats in basketball have turned the game into either 3 point shooting or dunking. So much of the game is taken away by advanced metrics.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I choose to side with everything that confirms my preconceived notions and dismiss everything else as statistical noise and/or witchcraft.

One gets pretty far in life with this philosophy.

 

[MikeSU02]

It is surprising to see the DBPR, but the box DBPR is not even close and well in favor of Maliq. One thing to keep in mind is that this is in half as many possessions for Eddie and the games that he's played so far have been mostly the non-con teams while Maliq's was for a full season and all conference games. Also, if you look at the Box DPBR, Maliq blows Eddie out of the water. There's a reason why he was coveted by Duke and this season he's 4th in the ACC Box DBPR despite limited minutes. When he plays, he's an outstanding defender.

Secondly, if you look at the definitions for the stats, the DBPR "rating incorporates a player’s individual efficiency stats and on-court play-by-play impact, and also accounts for the defensive strength of other teammates on the floor with him, along with the offensive strength of the opponent’s players on the floor." Whereas Box DBPR "is an estimate of a player’s defensive value, based only on his individual box stats" To me, that means that Eddie's teammates make him a capable defender this season (I think this is related to Eddie being paired with Donnie Freeman as a PF in the paint while Maliq was paired with Justin Taylor).

Exactly. This is a pretty big distinction.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Chris Bell……went from bad to worse……yikes

 

[CardiacCuse]

I've been a stat head since I was a kid, but I have shied away from modern advanced metrics to an extent. Maybe that's because I've been watching Syracuse sports for over 50 years, and I trust my own eyes / judgment at this point. Or maybe I'm just too lazy to look things up.

But this time I did. Here are the current season's Advanced Stats, followed by last year's below. Then I'll talk about what I see in the numbers, and I invite your responses.

2024-25 Advanced Stats:

View attachment 248690

And here are last year's advanced stats:

View attachment 248691

Discussion:

I better understand why everyone has been so hard on Starling, certainly based off last year's performance. He was maybe the least effective player on our team last year, and had the worst +/- (an admittedly flawed stat, but still useful in my eyes) of anyone on last year's team. This year, though, Starling is clearly our most improved player. While he still remains a bit below average defensively, he is light years ahead of last season.

Last year, Maliq Brown and Judah Mintz were both better than anyone we have on this year's roster. Mintz's defensive rating is actually noticeably above average. Yet, despite being a "better" player in the eyes of the Advanced metrics, Mintz's +/- is a negative 17. That was on a 20 win team, a clearly better team than we have this year.

On this year's team, our top 4 rated guys ALL have positive +/- ratings on a clearly worse team. So, to me, that's where the Advanced Stats meet the eye test. How could Judah have a negative plus/minus? From all the yapping at the refs and failure to get back on defense. Sure, when he bothered to get back, he could prevent his guy from scoring, but he just didn't do it with any consistency. This is where Bob Knight was right - defense is about effort, not necessarily talent.

Here's a surprise. Maliq Brown was our best player last year. I think most people agree with this. The surprise is that Eddie is pretty close to Maliq in defensive efficiency, and as a team, we actually are more efficient this year when Eddie is on the floor than when Maliq played. Maliq's hidden contributions to our offense (offensive rebounds, and in particular his interior passing) made us a much more efficient team offensively than Eddie does.

On last year's team, only Chris Bell was a worse defender than Starling, according to the stats. This year, Starling is about our 3rd best defender (roughly tied with Moore), despite still being below average. This year's team has SO MANY terrible defenders. But who has the absolute worst +/-? Yes, it's Jaquan Carlos. So, eyes and advanced stats sometimes agree! (Bell is still terrible, by the way ...)

Some people here didn't think that Petar was good enough to play for Syracuse. Too slow. Guess what? He's our 2nd best defensive player, after Eddie. Miles better than Mr. McDonald's AA, although Freeman is playing well offensively.

Another surprise for me was that Jyare Davis is getting lit up defensively. He is almost on par with Freeman offensively, according to the stats. That's one I wasn't expecting.

Here's another - while Kyle Cuffe had a bad year last year, and hardly got to play in his first 10 games or so, one of our most efficient offensive lineups is with him on the floor. Same with Petar, even though those guys are not scorers. So, the ball must be moving better when those guys are on the floor.

Your turn - what do you see in here that either supports things you've been saying, or that surprised you?

davis is too small to play power forward in the acc...hed be a good small forward but that role is taken, mostly. and he cant shoot 3s and small forward needs to shoot on this roster.

mintz was decent defensively but gave up so many blowbys by his man

i think eddie covers his man very well, generally...but his help defense is atrocious. on the whole, i agree that hes about the same or better at guarding centers than maliq...but the lack of rim protection is killing this team. as well as the lack of perimter defense.

we miss the steals and easy buckets by brown and mintz but other than that, they werent really good defensively. brown was too small for center and mintz was too me first.

starling isnt mentally all there on the court,...he kinda just floats around in a haze. his decision making on defense is like adhd or something. hes always nearby. he has improved slightly...but he only looks good because the team is so bad at defense.

i mean this team is sooooo bad at defense...they give up almost exclusively easy shots to any decent team. theres just no resistance.

i think the top 4 all having good plus minus shows that there are indeed combos that would work with these players...red just isnt creative enough or whatever to find them. he will get there...at some point, i suppose.

cuffe and petar need to play for defense...but they dont do much offensively...they still need to play. petar though is too small for center...even though he is the backup center. hes pretty good at pf though...servicable at least, i like cuffe he just needs to reign in his shot selections and get locked in.

overall, theres just too many holes on the roster. no rim protection. too many horrible defenders that cannot guard anyone. guards who cannot create shots for teammates. or stop opponents from shooting open shots.

overall...the big problem boils down to: this team always loses the "shot quality battle"

opponents tend to shoot easy shots and the orange tends to take difficult shots.

this is where the frustration with the coaching comes in.

some of it is the roster and the players themselves...but its also scheme and coaching.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Exactly. This is a pretty big distinction.

You know, you can only play with the other guys the coach puts out there,