JeremyCuse
Renowned lacrosse analyst
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Going to try an get a post up regarding the Cornell and UNC games later this week. Let me just say two big wins (critical really) and the team really looked like it has the potential to make a deep tourney run. There are of course a few concerns that I will get into more on this and the other thread but the team and the staff have done an outstanding job of turning it around from that god awful Colgate loss.
As for the Navy game I have a few thoughts.
Thought last year SU was in great position to win a game they played poorly for large stretches until a series of unfortunate events caused us to blow a goal lead with under a min left and come out with the loss. Something you don't often see happen to Syracuse, in most cases its usually SU who finds a way to win that type of game. Anyway this years Navy team is mcuh different then last years. Gone are Rees, the big attackmen Ray, their Varello and multiple D stalwarts. As such Navy has struggled after a 2-0 start losing big to pretty much every team with a pulse. They lost 14-9 to Maryland, 19-11 to Princeton, 18-5 to Loyola, 15-8 to Lehigh and 12-9 to Holy Cross. They also lost Saturday 9-8 to Army despite a heck of a second half comeback where the Navy goalie Kern played out of his mind.
Navy as a team has issues all over the place. Their defense which was pretty good last year has been a disaster this year. As you can see by the scores I listed above Princeton and Loyola nearly cracked 20 and Lehigh put up 15. Maryland apparently could have gotten that many as well but took their foot off the gas at they were up huge in the 1st half. Honestly the SU offense has played well over this last 3 or 4 games stretch since the first half of the ND game but hasn't exactly been lighting up like you would hope with all the extra possesions (SU has taken their foot of the gas in the 4th quarter the last few games). That said I can't see any reason SU can't get to 14 or 15 goals here unless we have just an abysmal performance. Navy played some zone last year I believe against us and I think is likely to try it again and will try and pack everything in tight ala Duke and ND. Kern is a pretty good goalie who gave SU some trouble last year. That aid the D in front of him has left him hung out to dry a lot this year and the fact he has a save % of 54% is quite impressive as he has seen 439 shots so far this year.
At the X with the loss of Varello Navy has struggled. Their main guy is Nick Barry who is just under 50% on the year (.495). There isn't much in the way of depth as the two backups while each over 50% have taken 43 and 21 draw respectively. This is an area where SU should at least on paper have a potentially signficant advantage. Even moreso when you consider Phaup is coming off the worst game of the season and probably not in a great mood.
Offensively Navy's lack of production is surprising. While they did lose some solid players they have a good trio of scorers in Ryan Wade (M 40pts), Gresyon Torrain (M 31 pts) and Christian Daniel (Attack 35 pts). Nick Cole a Frosh attack rounds out the top 4 with 24 pts. I believe SU handled Wade for the most part (finished 1 and 1) but SU had no real answer for Jack Ray who had 4 goals and Torrain (3 goals) whose speed was a major issue. This year while the 3 main guys are having good seasons number wise it hasn't translated onto the scoreboard as they are averaging 10.5 goals and didn't exceed 10 goals against any of their top 20 opponents, though they did have 9 against Maryland and 11 against Princeton. For Syracuse I think they will look to double pole the midfield like we did last year for some of the game. I also think a zone is possible as Navy really struggles to shoot the ball and is a very methodical (slow) offense. I wouldn't be surprised if SU double polled the midfield as I noted and put Mellen on Wade and let some combo of Fusco/Fernandez and Kennedy (my choice) try to slow down Torain. That puts Cunningham or Bomberry on Christian Daniel (likely Cunningham) and then I think a SSDM like Dearth or Bomberry on Nick Cole who is listed at 5'8 and may struggle with Dearth or Bomberry's size. SU could simply put Bomberry on the other attackmen who is listed at 6 feet but Tyson played Nicky Solomon most of last Sat and save for 1 goal he pretty much shut him down. I would have to go back and watch the tape from last year but I thought SU did double pole the midfield at times but I can't recall the individual matchups beyond Bomberry on Ray.
To me this is a game that if SU plays like it has been should go similar to Cornell but as we all know games are not played on paper. SU has a tendency to struggle with the academy teams (specifically Army) but this Navy team doesn't have the hallmark of Army despite their close score last week. Kern Navy's goalie is good but when you look at what they have given up to the better offenses they have face, they have been torched. Defensively SU is playing its best of the season by far over this last three game stretch pretty much shutting down Hobart and Cornell and locking down UNC in the second half. Still there are some concerns I went back and looked a little bit at least years game and SU got off to a slow start both halves (shocking I know) and struggled a lot with turnovers in the second half (14 total). Rehfuss had a big game (7pts) and the entire attack really played well. The midfield much less so as Trimbo was held scoreless and Curry/Dordevic only had 1 goal each. Varello save for the last half of the fourth quarter pretty much held his own at the X against his brother until he faded late.
Again if SU simply plays even remotely close the way it has been since the Hobart this a game it should win going away. Porter and the D have been absolutely locked in. Mellen, Bomberry and the SSDM's especially have been lights out, ditto for Cunningham who shut down Piatelli against Cornell and Jacob Kelly on Sat. The concern would be if SU comes out and is lethargic with a slow start and is turning the ball over again. We had been better against Hobart and the big Red but had 17 against UNC which is way to much, that needs to be halved. I thought SU was surprised by Navy last year who pushed tempo more then they had last year and tried to score on SU before they could set up defensively. When it was 6 on 6 SU more then held their own on most possessions. Would really like to see SU come out and go on an early run and kind of put this game away ala Colgate last year and the second half of the Hobart game. This would also be a great game to get Trimbo and Curry back on track after they were held to 1 goal combined against the Heels and Trimbo has only 1 pt in his last two games. The attack is on a tear recently and really hurt Navy last year, wouldn't mind seeing them keep it up and allow guys like Curry, Quinn and Magnan and even Seebold to get on the score sheet.
As for the Navy game I have a few thoughts.
Thought last year SU was in great position to win a game they played poorly for large stretches until a series of unfortunate events caused us to blow a goal lead with under a min left and come out with the loss. Something you don't often see happen to Syracuse, in most cases its usually SU who finds a way to win that type of game. Anyway this years Navy team is mcuh different then last years. Gone are Rees, the big attackmen Ray, their Varello and multiple D stalwarts. As such Navy has struggled after a 2-0 start losing big to pretty much every team with a pulse. They lost 14-9 to Maryland, 19-11 to Princeton, 18-5 to Loyola, 15-8 to Lehigh and 12-9 to Holy Cross. They also lost Saturday 9-8 to Army despite a heck of a second half comeback where the Navy goalie Kern played out of his mind.
Navy as a team has issues all over the place. Their defense which was pretty good last year has been a disaster this year. As you can see by the scores I listed above Princeton and Loyola nearly cracked 20 and Lehigh put up 15. Maryland apparently could have gotten that many as well but took their foot off the gas at they were up huge in the 1st half. Honestly the SU offense has played well over this last 3 or 4 games stretch since the first half of the ND game but hasn't exactly been lighting up like you would hope with all the extra possesions (SU has taken their foot of the gas in the 4th quarter the last few games). That said I can't see any reason SU can't get to 14 or 15 goals here unless we have just an abysmal performance. Navy played some zone last year I believe against us and I think is likely to try it again and will try and pack everything in tight ala Duke and ND. Kern is a pretty good goalie who gave SU some trouble last year. That aid the D in front of him has left him hung out to dry a lot this year and the fact he has a save % of 54% is quite impressive as he has seen 439 shots so far this year.
At the X with the loss of Varello Navy has struggled. Their main guy is Nick Barry who is just under 50% on the year (.495). There isn't much in the way of depth as the two backups while each over 50% have taken 43 and 21 draw respectively. This is an area where SU should at least on paper have a potentially signficant advantage. Even moreso when you consider Phaup is coming off the worst game of the season and probably not in a great mood.
Offensively Navy's lack of production is surprising. While they did lose some solid players they have a good trio of scorers in Ryan Wade (M 40pts), Gresyon Torrain (M 31 pts) and Christian Daniel (Attack 35 pts). Nick Cole a Frosh attack rounds out the top 4 with 24 pts. I believe SU handled Wade for the most part (finished 1 and 1) but SU had no real answer for Jack Ray who had 4 goals and Torrain (3 goals) whose speed was a major issue. This year while the 3 main guys are having good seasons number wise it hasn't translated onto the scoreboard as they are averaging 10.5 goals and didn't exceed 10 goals against any of their top 20 opponents, though they did have 9 against Maryland and 11 against Princeton. For Syracuse I think they will look to double pole the midfield like we did last year for some of the game. I also think a zone is possible as Navy really struggles to shoot the ball and is a very methodical (slow) offense. I wouldn't be surprised if SU double polled the midfield as I noted and put Mellen on Wade and let some combo of Fusco/Fernandez and Kennedy (my choice) try to slow down Torain. That puts Cunningham or Bomberry on Christian Daniel (likely Cunningham) and then I think a SSDM like Dearth or Bomberry on Nick Cole who is listed at 5'8 and may struggle with Dearth or Bomberry's size. SU could simply put Bomberry on the other attackmen who is listed at 6 feet but Tyson played Nicky Solomon most of last Sat and save for 1 goal he pretty much shut him down. I would have to go back and watch the tape from last year but I thought SU did double pole the midfield at times but I can't recall the individual matchups beyond Bomberry on Ray.
To me this is a game that if SU plays like it has been should go similar to Cornell but as we all know games are not played on paper. SU has a tendency to struggle with the academy teams (specifically Army) but this Navy team doesn't have the hallmark of Army despite their close score last week. Kern Navy's goalie is good but when you look at what they have given up to the better offenses they have face, they have been torched. Defensively SU is playing its best of the season by far over this last three game stretch pretty much shutting down Hobart and Cornell and locking down UNC in the second half. Still there are some concerns I went back and looked a little bit at least years game and SU got off to a slow start both halves (shocking I know) and struggled a lot with turnovers in the second half (14 total). Rehfuss had a big game (7pts) and the entire attack really played well. The midfield much less so as Trimbo was held scoreless and Curry/Dordevic only had 1 goal each. Varello save for the last half of the fourth quarter pretty much held his own at the X against his brother until he faded late.
Again if SU simply plays even remotely close the way it has been since the Hobart this a game it should win going away. Porter and the D have been absolutely locked in. Mellen, Bomberry and the SSDM's especially have been lights out, ditto for Cunningham who shut down Piatelli against Cornell and Jacob Kelly on Sat. The concern would be if SU comes out and is lethargic with a slow start and is turning the ball over again. We had been better against Hobart and the big Red but had 17 against UNC which is way to much, that needs to be halved. I thought SU was surprised by Navy last year who pushed tempo more then they had last year and tried to score on SU before they could set up defensively. When it was 6 on 6 SU more then held their own on most possessions. Would really like to see SU come out and go on an early run and kind of put this game away ala Colgate last year and the second half of the Hobart game. This would also be a great game to get Trimbo and Curry back on track after they were held to 1 goal combined against the Heels and Trimbo has only 1 pt in his last two games. The attack is on a tear recently and really hurt Navy last year, wouldn't mind seeing them keep it up and allow guys like Curry, Quinn and Magnan and even Seebold to get on the score sheet.
