Time for some math

[DonLightfoot]

OK, we are 3-4 in conference which includes four road games and three home games. If we can just protect our home court and win one more road game we will be 10-8 in conference and 20-11 overall. That in itself should get us a NCAA bid in my opinion. Also, making some noise in the ACCT will only boost our chances. Maybe I’m being optimistic since it is such a screwy season with anything possible on any given night.


Some of the scheduling this year is really weird too. Stretches of three at home, three on the road, four at home. We finish the season with two tough road games so we need to build up wins before then.

 

[jncuse]

OK, we are 3-4 in conference which includes four road games and three home games. If we can just protect our home court and win one more road game we will be 10-8 in conference and 20-11 overall. That in itself should get us a NCAA bid in my opinion. Also, making some noise in the ACCT will only boost our chances. Maybe I’m being optimistic since it is such a screwy season with anything possible on any given night.


Some of the scheduling this year is really weird too. Stretches of three at home, three on the road, four at home. We finish the season with two tough road games so we need to build up wins before then.

That will be more than enough to get us in I suspect, and keep us out of the last 4 in / 4 out discussion.

 

[CorduroyG]

Duke win was huuuuuge. 10 wins is the magic # to be in good shape, and the duke win really makes getting to 10 realistic. We have our signature road win, we have 2 very good neutral court wins, now we got a very favorable home schedule rest of the way so getting to 10 is right there for us. Take care of bidness at home and beat a god awful BC team on the road and boom, just about lock city.

 

[Knicks411]

OK, we are 3-4 in conference which includes four road games and three home games. If we can just protect our home court and win one more road game we will be 10-8 in conference and 20-11 overall. That in itself should get us a NCAA bid in my opinion. Also, making some noise in the ACCT will only boost our chances. Maybe I’m being optimistic since it is such a screwy season with anything possible on any given night.


Some of the scheduling this year is really weird too. Stretches of three at home, three on the road, four at home. We finish the season with two tough road games so we need to build up wins before then.

I'm just using the latest Lunardi bracketology for some context. The remaining home games are: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Pitt, and NC State. Road games: UVA, BC, Lville, UNC, and FSU. Let's say the road game is BC. ND is currently an 8 for Lunardi, Pitt is a 5, and FSU is his 5th team out (we are 8th; as far as I can tell, this was before we beat Duke).

A&M is a 3, UConn is a 9. So running the home slate gives us neutral wins at a 3 and a 9, a road win at Duke, who is a 4 (and since they're Duke, i bet they end up even higher), plus home wins against an 8 (ND) plus Pitt (a 5) and FSU has a chance to play their way in as well. Throw in the fact that we should get the benefit of the doubt on the stretch where we were missing JB and that would have to be a lock, I'd think.

But we're a long way from there.

 

[jgeorge322]

if we get to 20-11, noway we are out unless we get smoked in the first round of the acct. the committee chair already said hed take boeheim's absence into account. that includes 5 losses. 10-8 and were lock city. 10-8 would be remarkable though. not a lot of room for error.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think we beat Virginia and never look back.

 

[Knicks411]

I think we beat Virginia and never look back.

There's a part of me that thinks we keep the run going and win Saturday. Then there is another part of me that thinks we just get throttled by them. Hope the first one is right!!

 

[OttoinGrotto]

There's a part of me that thinks we keep the run going and win Saturday. Then there is another part of me that thinks we just get throttled by them. Hope the first one is right!!

Different team did the throttling, different team got throttled. It's a new day.

Plus, that game is the day before my birthday. They won't let me down.

 

[Knicks411]

Different team did the throttling, different team got throttled. It's a new day.

Plus, that game is the day before my birthday. They won't let me down.

Well you should have said that. We roll by 15.

 

[Alsacs]

We need to go 5-1 in the 6 home games.
Then 2-3 in the 5 road games.

That would put us 10-8 and 20-11.

If we are 20-11 we should only need 1 ACCT win and we are in.

19-12 is pure bubble.

 

[HoustonCuse]

We need to go 5-1 in the 6 home games.
Then 2-3 in the 5 road games.

That would put us 10-8 and 20-11.

If we are 20-11 we should only need 1 ACCT win and we are in.

19-12 is pure bubble.

My opinion is that will be extraordinarily difficult. VPI is starting to get Buzzed which could spell trouble for us. FSU has like three 7 footers for us to contend with using basically Tyler Lydon. We never beat Pitt no matter what, and until we defeat UVa, we should not assume we can do it. I'm rooting as hard as anyone, but we know this team is going to be streaky and we also know the looming shadow of season fatigue is creeping closer.

 

[jncuse]

if we get to 20-11, noway we are out unless we get smoked in the first round of the acct. the committee chair already said hed take boeheim's absence into account. that includes 5 losses. 10-8 and were lock city. 10-8 would be remarkable though. not a lot of room for error.

I would not count on it. The committee considers all type of non metric things and usually does not act on them.

I assume you are talking about the Waters article.

1. Dan Gavitt, the VP in charge of tournaments, is not the chair of the committee. That is Mike Hollis. I am not even certain if he is on the committee.
2. Gavitt said they would consider it -- that is way different than saying they will adjust or account for it. It is part of their bylaws to try to consider and evaluate player absences. So he had to say he would consider it. They tend to use a bailout "too hard to evaluate an impact, so we focused on the overall results, the overall body of work".
3. The most positive things in the Waters article, was Waters interpretations of what Gavitt was saying "this means that..." Gavitt never actually said it Waters chose to interpret it that way. Gavitt's direct quotes were all "We will consider" type quotes.

10-8 we do not need to worry about what they think about Boeheim's absence. We are in anyway.

We could even be in at 9-9 without an allowance for JB, although I think JB could be the tiebreaker.to push us over.

 

[NineOneSeven]

There's a part of me that thinks we keep the run going and win Saturday. Then there is another part of me that thinks we just get throttled by them. Hope the first one is right!!

we will know within the first few minutes of the game how it will play out.