Today won't be the day...

[SWC75]

...but will tonight be the night?

- After playing teams like Duke and Pittsburgh we see a homestand of N C State and BC as a "breather". But The Wolfpack are a good team. They are 16-8 and 6-5 in the conference, (and we had to rally to beat BC in Boston but that's for another post).

- We assume that first loss will be at Duke or Virginia. But that wouldn't sting as much as losing before then. The fates may have noticed that our heads have been getting bigger and decide to reduce them in size, just when we don't expect it.

- TJ Warren is a superstar. He's the conference's leading scorer and the country's 8th leading scorer at 23.1ppg. A 6-8 forward and great all-around players, he's the sort of guy who could carry his team to victory on his shoulders.And he's upping his game. In the last four games, He's averaged 28ppg and is 9 for 17 from the arc.

- And he's not without help. They have the same number of double-figure scorers as we do: four. Guards Anthony "Cat" Barber, Ralston Turner and Desmond Lee all average 10ppg. It's another game where we'll have to chase around several guards while protecting inside against a big-time scorer.

- This team is playing the bets they've played all year, winning 5 of their last 6, including a 15 point win over Wake Forest in their last game, as Warren dropped in 34 points.

- Comparative scores: They beat Notre Dame by 7 at Notre Dame. We beat the Irish by 6 in the Dome. They beat Wake Forest by 15. We beat them by 10. They beat Miami by 1. We beat them by 5.

- SU is off the the best start for an ACC team since NC State went 27-0 with another superstar, David Thompson, carrying them back in 1972-73. The Pack won't want the 'cuse to top that record!

- And NC knows how to break our hearts. Remember those 6 football defeats? Remember Julius Hodge mocking us as they beat us at the Dome?

- And Mark Gottfried knows how to beat us when we are looking ahead. His Alabama team spoiled our expected rubber match against the UCONN Huskies in the 2004 NCAA tournament.

- Theoretically we are to ACC basketball this what Florida State was to football, undefeated, at the top of the standings and ranked #1 in the country. But the Noles were not allowing teams to compete with them,. taking five touchdown halftime leads. We allow everyone to compete with us and expect to somehow pull it out at the end. It doesn't seem to matter who we are playing. We're not Genghis Khan, sweeping through Asia with his Mongol hordes, looking for new worlds to conquer. We are a gambler at a roulette table, fighting that he's on such a roll that he can't possibly lose. Or can he?

 

[SWC75]

- Jim Boeheim’s zone is very good at adjusting to one major scoring threat like TJ Warren. It’s a team like Duke that has 4-5 of them that is difficult. The one problem an individual guy might have us is if he’s a great outside shooter who can shoot from beyond the range of the zone. That’s not Warren, a 6-8 forward who is only 23 for 79, (29%) from outside. He’ll have plenty of company wherever he goes.


- He might be the third best forward on the court. CJ Fair could average 23 a game if he were the whole show for some team. And Jerami Grant has a big future on the next level.


- And the other guys won’t beat us. Barber is averaging 24% from outside, Lee 28%. The one good outside guy they’ve got is Turner at 38.5%. We can handle one outside guy. This ain’t Duke.


- We’d have killed Pitt if we could have hung with them on the boards. But we are a good rebounding team this year and the guys will be determined to make a come-back in that department. And NC State is the perfect team to do it against. They are last in the conference in rebounding percentage.


- They also are not the team to beat a zone. They shoot only 30% from outside. They are a running team by nature, averaging 67 possessions a game, (we average 61). Will they have the patience to pass the ball around and find the weaknesses in the zone? I doubt it.


- NC State averages 75ppg at home and 65ppg on the road where they have split 8 games. The shoot 8 points worse on the road (40%) than at home (48%). And they will shoot even worse against our defense.


- You want comparative scores? We twice beat Pitt by 5 and 2 points. They lost to Pitt by 12. They lost at Wake by 1. We won by 10. We won at Miami by 12. They won by 1. We beat UNC by 12. They lost to UNC by 14. And we beat Duke by 2. They lost to them by 35.


- This team lost by 10 to North Carolina Central, by 12 to Pitt, by 31 to Virginia and by 35 to Duke. If we are in the same class with Virginia and Duke, (and I have to think we are), this should be an easy night.


- They have lost 8 in a row to ranked teams. They are 0 for the decade.


- They are liable to be kind of dazed, like Andre Dawson in that commercial by the time they finally get here. Then they’ll walk into the Carrier Dome. What year is it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJQQqdCsQ0E

- You can’t compare this team to Florida State in football. You aren’t allowed to knock people down in this sport, (unless you’re Pitt). This sport isn’t about margin of victory. It’s just about victory. Florida State won only 14 games. We’re up 10 on ‘em!