Total Board Meltdown O'Clock

[cusetown1]

The biggest problem with his system is that he undervalues winning in general and over values winning margin IMO. I love the offensive and defensive efficiency stats but these have a lot to do with the opponent and the styles of play and how they mix.

Nova is good because they beat teams by a lot and had victories over KU and Iowa plus they played SU I(and lost badly).

Creighton is a pretty efficient offensive team and beats the lessor teams by a big margin then they put on a shooting clinic over Nova. They basically switched places with Nova a couple days after losing to Providence and collecting their 3rd loss of the season.

Pitt has a weak strength of schedule but very good efficiency numbers and margin of victory numbers. They finally play a strong team and lose in a close one on the road. Then they pound a bad team at home and jump us.

All these teams benefit from losing to us or beating a team that lost to us. Yet we don't really benefit from beating them. The system is horribly faulted since it fails to properly value the most important part of basketball . . .. . . . . . you know its called winning.

At the end of the day, kenpom is what it is.

 

[cusetown1]

Well guys this may be champagne worthy, we just cracked the top 5 of the coveted BPI!

 

[orange2win]

In defense of Ken-Pom, unlike most other systems which rank the best teams, he projects on a daily basis that when the cream eventually rises, this is how it will shake out. Information that is of interest to many fans.

While his formulas often come close, they are flawed. Sufficiently flawed to be annoying.

Just a quick scan of the easily digestible data in our own heads, tells us that Creighton and Nova will not be better than SU when the cream rises. Last year Wisconsin was never going to win it all. But Ken-Pom is getting the last laugh, for he is making a fat buck on his silliness.

 

[SWC75]

March Madness, baby! The opinions don't matter in this sport. (At least not as much.)

 

[jekelish]

"Good evening and welcome to Who's Ken Pomeroy Anyway? Where the formula's made up and the rankings don't matter."

 

[omniorange]

Basically, with kenpom, I mainly keep track of those teams who are Top 20 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency.

While a team can make the Final Four without being in both, I think only UNC in 2009 (which was 21 in defensive efficiency) is the only team that won an NC that wasn't in the Top 20 of both.

As of this morning if this trend continues that would mean one of the following is likely to win the NC this year:

Arizona - 15/3
Pittsburgh - 5/17
Syracuse - 8/13
Villanova - 19/21

Of course, it is only January 22nd.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[PeteCalvin]

The Creighton win over Villanova totally wrecked his system. It's ridiculous t0 think that because Creighton had the game of their lives that they should jump so high and Villanova drop so low.

Hit 21 threes in a game = give them a ticket to the Final Four

Try that game plan against a team with size and athleticism. Creighton looks awesome against a down BE. They are a tremendous team, don't get me wrong. I have a ton of respect for them. But one game does not maketh thou a one seed.