Total Offense

[Fjoinkay]

Last year SU averaged 322 yards per game which ranked 97th in the country. Can SU crack the top 40 in yards per game this year? The number 40 ranked offense last year was Arkansas St. which averaged 403 yards per game. The number 30 offense was UAB at 422; number 20 was Ohio State at 488.

SU has more weapons, more familiarity with the offense and I believe we will see more aggressive game plans. If the offense can put up top 40 numbers or better that would help the defense for sure. Last year the defense was #7 nationally in yards allowed per game.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

That's really the big question. I think we all know that the defense has to take a step back. I just don't think you can expect to field Top 10 defenses in consecutive years. I'd love to be wrong, I just think it's next to impossible.

So, if the defense takes a step back, and we want to have another winning season, the offense has to take enough of a step forward to make up the difference, but we're hoping we improve on next season even more, so maybe that's even more of the load the offense needs to take over.

I think getting to 400 yards a game is a great goal. That would be nearly 1000 additional yards of offense over the course of the season. I'd have to think that would equate to quite a bit more TDs and FGs.

 

[orangenauburn]

Baby steps ... let's hit 360. About one more score a game as well.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Baby steps ... let's hit 360. About one more score a game as well.

Ouch. An improvement to 360 would only move us up to being ranked 78th.

I think we want to at least be in the middle. To be ranked right smack dab at 60 out of 120 we'd need a boost up to 380 a game. Remember, that isn't even good offense - that's just asking to be at the 50th percentile.

 

[Fjoinkay]

When was the last time SU's offense ranked in the top 40 at the end of the season? I have no idea. I'd be surprised if it was in the 2000s. My guess is HCDM expects his offense to be a fixture in the top 40 and probably more like in the top 20 or higher, but that takes time. I'm cautiously excited to see a healthy improvement this year.

 

[OrangeMojo]

That's really the big question. I think we all know that the defense has to take a step back. I just don't think you can expect to field Top 10 defenses in consecutive years. I'd love to be wrong, I just think it's next to impossible.

So, if the defense takes a step back, and we want to have another winning season, the offense has to take enough of a step forward to make up the difference, but we're hoping we improve on next season even more, so maybe that's even more of the load the offense needs to take over.

I think getting to 400 yards a game is a great goal. That would be nearly 1000 additional yards of offense over the course of the season. I'd have to think that would equate to quite a bit more TDs and FGs.

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I think swapping out Stew, Edsall & Wanny for Holgorsen, Pasquadeleone & Graham virtually guarantees no return to the top 10 defenses this season. Those 3 were incredibly helpful for team defense rankings.

 

[Millhouse]

Ouch. An improvement to 360 would only move us up to being ranked 78th.

I think we want to at least be in the middle. To be ranked right smack dab at 60 out of 120 we'd need a boost up to 380 a game. Remember, that isn't even good offense - that's just asking to be at the 50th percentile.

Getting to average requires the offense to be 18% better than last year.

It's quite possible that the defense slips just as much as the offense improves (I think it's likely to slip more than the offense improves). we gave up 301 ypg, median team was Auburn(!) at 368

asking yourself which unit is more likely to be average probably tells you whether you think this year will be better than last.

 

[Chip]

I think we should be able to average 400 yards on offense this year given the following items:

1. No Delone Carter and proven/experienced D, means our offense won't so often be in let's take time off the clock with safe 4-5 yard DC runs mode. They have to open it up and they know it.
2. So many others returning. WR should be a big upgrade if we stay healthy. Nassib another year more comfortable and familiar. TEs could produce. Bailey gives more versatility. OL 80% back, what we lose in Bart to Macky for size, blocking, we probably gain in technique, mobility and ability to shotgun snap.
3. Where are the high powered defenses we're playing? Even USC had their worst D in years in 2010, maybe they fix, but that's kind of a toss away game anyway. There are some good defensive players in the BE, but are there good defenses overall? Wake was atrocious last year, can't imagine they have the athletes that will move them anywhere near Steel Curtain status in one year.

Marrone is in his 3rd year, same offense for his 2nd year, I think he has to start showing those results now. 400 yard average isn't exactly Top 10 these days.

 

[qdawgg]

National offensive stats are somewhat skewed when you have many of the top 30+ offensive teams playing at least 2 scrubs during the season and racking up 400 - 500 yards of offense in those games. I don't give a crap where SU is ranked at the end of the season b/c we're not a top 25 offense (hope I'm wrong) and we're not playing 2-3 games that we are expected to dominate.

I just want to see an offense that looks as if it can consistently score. I don't need to overanalyze it, everyone on here knows what I mean - you just have that feeling that the only thing preventing TD's are the little things and not big things like lack of talent, no O-Line, inconsistent WR/QB. When we see an O-Line that consistently opens holes and gives the QB time, players with obvious on the field talent, and WR's that catch the ball and a QB that puts the ball in their hands when they should - I could care less where we rank in the nation.

 

[Millhouse]

I think we should be able to average 400 yards on offense this year given the following items:

1. No Delone Carter and proven/experienced D, means our offense won't so often be in let's take time off the clock with safe 4-5 yard DC runs mode. They have to open it up and they know it.
2. So many others returning. WR should be a big upgrade if we stay healthy. Nassib another year more comfortable and familiar. TEs could produce. Bailey gives more versatility. OL 80% back, what we lose in Bart to Macky for size, blocking, we probably gain in technique, mobility and ability to shotgun snap.
3. Where are the high powered defenses we're playing? Even USC had their worst D in years in 2010, maybe they fix, but that's kind of a toss away game anyway. There are some good defensive players in the BE, but are there good defenses overall? Wake was atrocious last year, can't imagine they have the athletes that will move them anywhere near Steel Curtain status in one year.

Marrone is in his 3rd year, same offense for his 2nd year, I think he has to start showing those results now. 400 yard average isn't exactly Top 10 these days.

I'm not holding my breath for a 25% improvement this year. Last year's offense was helped by playing Akron, Maine, Colgate (and K State actually). It's not like it was *all* a murderers row

We only avgd 275 yards of offense in conference games last year. Getting to 400 in conference games (which i know you didn't say) is a 45% improvement. That's expecting a lot out of Nassib.

 

[Chip]

I'm not holding my breath for a 25% improvement this year. Last year's offense was helped by playing Akron, Maine, Colgate (and K State actually). It's not like it was *all* a murderers row

We only avgd 275 yards of offense in conference games last year. Getting to 400 in conference games (which i know you didn't say) is a 45% improvement. That's expecting a lot out of Nassib.

It's also expecting a lot out of Nassib's supporting cast and his coaching staff. Assuming that players get better with age and practice repetition, there should be some level of improvement. And our offense's #s last year are better if both Chew and Lemon do not get hurt. There was little to nothing behind them (who knows what was going on with Sales, I think he proved this offseason there's a light bulb or two that don't always work). Now Dorian has another year, Flemming has another year, West is healthy.

Maybe my expectations are too high, but I think we need to get to the 400 yard average this year. Need to treat the Dome like the advantage that opponents like Pitt did.

 

[qdawgg]

I don't think 400 average is attainable BUT I think that 350 is and would increase our scoring average; potentially 6 - 14 points more per game. If we averaged 275 last year and average 350 this year it doesn't sound significant but it is. If you take 2 - 3 drives during a game and increase their length by 15 - 25 yards more (which will also increase time of possession and opportunities for that 1 big play) then in the very least it should create 2 more FG's or a minimum of 1 TD.

 

[Millhouse]

It's also expecting a lot out of Nassib's supporting cast and his coaching staff. Assuming that players get better with age and practice repetition, there should be some level of improvement. And our offense's #s last year are better if both Chew and Lemon do not get hurt. There was little to nothing behind them (who knows what was going on with Sales, I think he proved this offseason there's a light bulb or two that don't always work). Now Dorian has another year, Flemming has another year, West is healthy.

Maybe my expectations are too high, but I think we need to get to the 400 yard average this year. Need to treat the Dome like the advantage that opponents like Pitt did.

I agree that's where they need to get. I just don't expect them too. I predicted 7-5 because a) i don't want to be an ahole 2 days before the season and b) who wants to win a prediction for a disappointing record? getting to 340 or 350 in conf games would make those games so much easier to stomach. but generally i'm expecting this year to be a bit of a slog.

bright side, bagging the empty backfield no shotgun clusterf will keep a lot more drives going this year

 

[qdawgg]

Millhouse do you think the year is going to be a bit of a slog because the overall team - team record or b/c you don't think the offense will be any better? Or because you are Millhouse and are always negative

 

[Millhouse]

I think the defense is probably going to drop off more than the offense improves. D lost more than the O gained in a year. And it's unlikely that we continue to win all the nailbiters.

 

[Fjoinkay]

I hope we see more aggressive game plans and play calling. Last year we never used shotgun because HCDM didn't feel comfortable with the possibility of a single turnover during a game because we lacked the weapons to overcome them. At least that's what I recall him saying when asked about the lack of shotgun. During the first 2 years I feel like HCDM has had his hands tied and this year is the year that we begin to see the ball spread around more and more shots down field and possibly more hurry-up and even some option here and there. We are likely to see more turnovers with the loss of DC34, but we are also likely to see more points with more chunck plays.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think the defense is probably going to drop off more than the offense improves. D lost more than the O gained in a year. And it's unlikely that we continue to win all the nailbiters.

I agree completely. It's a bummer, but I think you're spot on.

 

[texascpa]

That's really the big question. I think we all know that the defense has to take a step back. I just don't think you can expect to field Top 10 defenses in consecutive years. I'd love to be wrong, I just think it's next to impossible.

Don't tell that to TCU.

 

[qdawgg]

I think the defense is probably going to drop off more than the offense improves. D lost more than the O gained in a year. And it's unlikely that we continue to win all the nailbiters.

I agree with this but I don't think it's "drinking the kool-aid" to think the offense could be significantly better. I don't really feel like writing a book but if you think about all the problems the offense had last year... offensive line, WR's (multiple issues), very few real holes for the RB's to get through and on and on and on. I think that some of these issues could see a huge improvement and then who knows what the offense is capable of doing. I think that even if you looked at it in a pessimistic nature you would still have to think there would be noticeable improvement in the very least.

I'm just hoping the offense is as good as the defense was last year but then we won those close games b/c the defense shut the other teams offense down in the last minutes (WV, Rutgers, whoever else I'm forgetting right now) and can they do that this year?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Don't tell that to TCU.

There's a difference between expecting to do it and actually doing it. I think some fans are so high on Schafer and the D that they're not realizing how much of an aberration last season was on the defensive side of the ball. I believe in Schafer too but we lost some NFL and fringe NFL talent and we're really green and a little on the small side on defense now. If the defense remains even just slightly above average I'll think they did an amazing job.

 

[dollarbill44]

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I think swapping out Stew, Edsall & Wanny for Holgorsen, Pasquadeleone & Graham virtually guarantees no return to the top 10 defenses this season. Those 3 were incredibly helpful for team defense rankings.

Last year's Pitt game did not help SU's defensive stats one bit.

 

[dollarbill44]

I think the defense is probably going to drop off more than the offense improves. D lost more than the O gained in a year. And it's unlikely that we continue to win all the nailbiters.

But maybe with one extra TD per game, there aren't as many nailbiters? We can hope, at least.

 

[OttoMets]

But maybe with one extra TD per game, there aren't as many nailbiters? We can hope, at least.

This is my hope. Remember, if SU hadn't played like a D-II team on offense, the Rutgers game wouldn't have been a nailbiter.

Of course we won't keep winning these one-score games; that's too much to ask of them. But will even a meager improvement, what was a one-score margin should be two.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Our offense has been horrendous for 10 years now really. At what point does it get better? The O Line looks to be in place (Macky?) the wide receivers look to be athletic enough.. Is the scheme solid and can Nassib execute? Of course if he doesn't we will go back to how nobody was open, etc etc. Our athleticism has come a long ways at the wide receiver position. Stevens and Provo should be fine and Ant Bailey is as good as a receiver out of the backfield as you will find in the Big East. God damit, lets see a QB that can execute, we haven't had one in years. I think if they allow Nassib to play, run, take a few hits, ie; play like a college qb as opposed to Drew Bress we will be better off. The biggest question is and I know that Lemon and Chew aren't going to be the guy for this but we need to find a gameday receiver that makes the big catches like Sales. Who knows maybe its Anchione ,Flemming, or West , he doesn't need to be the fastest, the strongest, etc because god knows Sales wasn't but he caught the freaking football and made plays. We need a gamer to emerge, I know Lemon isn't that guy, Chew, doubt it

 

[OrangeMojo]

There's a difference between expecting to do it and actually doing it. I think some fans are so high on Schafer and the D that they're not realizing how much of an aberration last season was on the defensive side of the ball. I believe in Schafer too but we lost some NFL and fringe NFL talent and we're really green and a little on the small side on defense now. If the defense remains even just slightly above average I'll think they did an amazing job.

I don't think there's any question that the defense stays above average. The DEs, MLB and safeties are very good, the corners both would've played significant minutes last year if not for injuries and at least from reports, what the DTs lose in experience they make up for somewhat in explosiveness. Swapping true frosh Spruill last year for r/s jr Vaughan is at worst a push at one LB spot, so there's a drop in two LB spots and in experience, but an overall team speed & athleticism increase. The added experience at DE and S will pay dividends this year.

D will drop off YTY, but that's going to happen after a #7 ranking - that being said, I think the offense ranking jumps more than the defense drops off. I just hope the D can handle the new hurry/speed offenses that were added to the conference and Cignetti doesn't save his one big day on offense for SU again.