Tournament Resumes YTD

[DomeHolmes]

So far this year, even with Maryland‘s loss I think the only two teams that are near virtual locks so far are Maryland and Princeton.

A couple weeks ago, I said the most overrated teams in my opinion were Georgetown, army, and Penn State. Georgetown now needs to win their tournament to get in. And Armys résumé and opportunities are so thin that even if they beat North Carolina, they still might need to win their tournament to get in. (Just like last year) And they might have to go through Colgate and Boston University, (who has their number) to do it.

Cornell does not have many good opportunities left. Should they lose to Syracuse and Harvard, I don’t think they would make it. With just one more loss they are in.

Hopkins just had a bad loss to Rutgers. (any loss to Rutgers is a bad loss). They need to Either go three and one in BIG to get a bid, or beat both Maryland and Penn State/Ohio st winner to hope to get a bid. They also hurt our resume as they need to run the table to be a top 10 team now.

Harvard does not have too many more opportunities for good wins . The rest of their schedule is weak. They might need to beat Cornell. A loss to BU would be devastating. I think if they beat BU and win one game in the Ivy tourney, they are in.

The Penn State Ohio State winner is in very good shape and the loser is going to be on the cusp but in safely at this point.

Any ACC team who goes 3-1 in league play, (even UVA), is in. 2-2 gets dicey, especially for ND. UVA would be out.

we need to beat Virginia, and at minimum go 2-2 after, to have a shot at a 7-8 seed. If somehow we go 2-3 we will be sweating it out for sure.

I don’t believe any non ACC, Big Ten or Ivy League team, except Army or BU, has a chance at large bid. (UNC is a must win for Army or they have no shot). BU would if they won out, or maybe even if they won 2/3 vs duke, Colgate, Harvard. Richmond is a very very long shot.

The bubble already appears weak as the IVY is likely only getting three teams max, and unless Hopkins turns it around, only three for the Big Ten. Even if we went 2-3 the rest of the way, I could only see Army or BU winning out and losing their tournament and still having a chance to change the outcome of at larges as follows:

At larges as of now ACC 4, BIG 2, IVY 2.

next weekend has a lot of huge games to put teams on the right side or the wrong side of the bubble.

I’m curious what others think?

 

[Powellfan]

Good stuff. Right now SUs RPI is 8 and SOS is 17. I feel like UVa and Duke are must wins as I don’t like how we matchup with Cornell and Notre Dame. UNC is not a team that SU would probably be favored against. We shall see.

US lacrosse put out a Bracketology this week but it was paywalled so I didn’t post it. With so many upsets it seems like “locks” could change by the week. Margins are so slim. Conference Tournaments could cause total bedlam as well. Syracuse needs to take care of business.

 

[cuselaxss26]

My small two cents here. But think for cuse atleast they have to beat uva,duke and would say 1 of the unc,cornel,nd teams. For shot at seed. Grant think if cuse could take 2 guys out of those 3 top 5 teams plus uva n duke win no doubt their a seed n in. As not sure how much can hope colgate n hopkins finish strong to stay on top 20 to count those a solid wins. The harvard lost could beat us hard at end. Either way as said cuse needs to take care of business n keep fate in their own hands.

These last 5 games or so can’t have tale of two halves, n expect to win these battles. Gotta play full 60mins with limited unforced mistakes. Gotta make teams pay when they make a mistake. Offense can not go Awhol for periods of time either. Defense has to stay disciplined and out of box. Man down did good today but going man down so much vs these teams coming up will be whole lot worst n different. McCool will have to play like he did today and better down stretch. Still think was few weak goals he let in thay have to be saved. Also mullen has to stop turning it over or bad pass after faceoff win. Gonna be very interesting push to end of season, let’s go boys prove you belong.

 

[orange79]

My small two cents here. But think for cuse atleast they have to beat uva,duke and would say 1 of the unc,cornel,nd teams. For shot at seed. Grant think if cuse could take 2 guys out of those 3 top 5 teams plus uva n duke win no doubt their a seed n in. As not sure how much can hope colgate n hopkins finish strong to stay on top 20 to count those a solid wins. The harvard lost could beat us hard at end. Either way as said cuse needs to take care of business n keep fate in their own hands.

These last 5 games or so can’t have tale of two halves, n expect to win these battles. Gotta play full 60mins with limited unforced mistakes. Gotta make teams pay when they make a mistake. Offense can not go Awhol for periods of time either. Defense has to stay disciplined and out of box. Man down did good today but going man down so much vs these teams coming up will be whole lot worst n different. McCool will have to play like he did today and better down stretch. Still think was few weak goals he let in thay have to be saved. Also mullen has to stop turning it over or bad pass after faceoff win. Gonna be very interesting push to end of season, let’s go boys prove you belong.

Agreed, especially with the penalties. WAY too many. And they weren't really 'forced', if you know what I mean. We didn't really see the chippy Colgate we saw last year.

And it wouldn't hurt if Hop rebounds to go on a streak.

 

[DomeHolmes]

Good stuff. Right now SUs RPI is 8 and SOS is 17. I feel like UVa and Duke are must wins as I don’t like how we matchup with Cornell and Notre Dame. UNC is not a team that SU would probably be favored against. We shall see.

US lacrosse put out a Bracketology this week but it was paywalled so I didn’t post it. With so many upsets it seems like “locks” could change by the week. Margins are so slim. Conference Tournaments could cause total bedlam as well. Syracuse needs to take care of business.

The conference tournaments are kind of what I was thinking about when I was looking at possible scenarios. And looking at various resumes, only the Ivy and big tournaments are likely to change anything. (With outside shot at BU or Army not winning theirs, but only 1 could spoil IMO) I don’t think any Ivy team other than Cornell, Princeton and Harvard has a chance. Hopkins and Michigan could be wild cards in BIG.

Also not too worried about Gate or Hopkins no being top 20 at years end as was one posters concern. With their schedules 7-7 likely has Hop top 20 and 8-6 for Colgate.

I think we need to root hard for Harvard to lose 2 games or BU and Army losing just one more. Should 2 of those 3 happen, I’m almost sure A 2-3 record from here on it gets us in.

 

[Powellfan]

For what it's worth. Syracuse is a bubble team as of now according to Mark. Obviously lots of work to do.

 

[Powellfan]

 

[DomeHolmes]

Not sure of the love for Duke. Just looking at best win, worst loss, they are way behind in that metric.

in my opinion, Duke and Penn State might be the two most likely to play themselves out, with possibly Syracuse and Harvard as the next two.

I think only Princeton, Maryland, Cornell, and Ohio State should really be considered “safe”.

North Carolina has the same kind of wins as Syracuse and Duke. (#15 type teams) but they have not played enough. Good teams to say they’re safe.

 

[ColdAnger]

UNC - lost to Princeton, beat Michigan/JHop
ND - lost Maryland/OSU, beat Mich/Gtown
S - lost Maryland/Harv, beat JHop/Gate
Duke - lost Princeton/Den, beat Mich/Rich
UVA - lost Rich/OSU/JHop/Mary, beat Gate

Seems to me that nothing is settled in the ACC … yet … except maybe UVA’s role as spoiler

 

[wgdsr]

So far this year, even with Maryland‘s loss I think the only two teams that are near virtual locks so far are Maryland and Princeton.

A couple weeks ago, I said the most overrated teams in my opinion were Georgetown, army, and Penn State. Georgetown now needs to win their tournament to get in. And Armys résumé and opportunities are so thin that even if they beat North Carolina, they still might need to win their tournament to get in. (Just like last year) And they might have to go through Colgate and Boston University, (who has their number) to do it.

Cornell does not have many good opportunities left. Should they lose to Syracuse and Harvard, I don’t think they would make it. With just one more loss they are in.

Hopkins just had a bad loss to Rutgers. (any loss to Rutgers is a bad loss). They need to Either go three and one in BIG to get a bid, or beat both Maryland and Penn State/Ohio st winner to hope to get a bid. They also hurt our resume as they need to run the table to be a top 10 team now.

Harvard does not have too many more opportunities for good wins . The rest of their schedule is weak. They might need to beat Cornell. A loss to BU would be devastating. I think if they beat BU and win one game in the Ivy tourney, they are in.

The Penn State Ohio State winner is in very good shape and the loser is going to be on the cusp but in safely at this point.

Any ACC team who goes 3-1 in league play, (even UVA), is in. 2-2 gets dicey, especially for ND. UVA would be out.

we need to beat Virginia, and at minimum go 2-2 after, to have a shot at a 7-8 seed. If somehow we go 2-3 we will be sweating it out for sure.

I don’t believe any non ACC, Big Ten or Ivy League team, except Army or BU, has a chance at large bid. (UNC is a must win for Army or they have no shot). BU would if they won out, or maybe even if they won 2/3 vs duke, Colgate, Harvard. Richmond is a very very long shot.

The bubble already appears weak as the IVY is likely only getting three teams max, and unless Hopkins turns it around, only three for the Big Ten. Even if we went 2-3 the rest of the way, I could only see Army or BU winning out and losing their tournament and still having a chance to change the outcome of at larges as follows:

At larges as of now ACC 4, BIG 2, IVY 2.

next weekend has a lot of huge games to put teams on the right side or the wrong side of the bubble.

I’m curious what others think?

the acc tournament might have more impact on bubble accs then in awhile.
yes, 3 and 1 makes 3 and 2 the worst outcome in conference. but it's doubtful it'll be that much worse if you make the tourney @ 2 and 2, and win a game, then lose final.

doesn't look like any losses would be penal. the path for uva as i see it is win 3 acc games reg season + tourn.

they do that, their metrics should be good, they'd have 3 good to v good wins and maybe no bad losses. of course, given how they've played any of that is a long shot.

 

[cuselaxss26]

we def have to beat uva n as said before prob have to take least 2 out of the next 4 to even be considered (tho a lot could happen for best or worst) at this time. Beating uva duke n cornell think our chances being in would be super high. I think can take uva duke n cornell if play how we can ALL game. Nd seems to have our number or we just don’t show up for them. Unc their young n aggressive n very skilled. Also run 10man which hope we don’t go to shooting 70yrd shots non stop to beat it. As i’m sure unc saw the colgate n prob want to bait us into that. Just win cuse n your in that’s all need to worry bout lol.

Win one game at time.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Not sure of the love for Duke. Just looking at best win, worst loss, they are way behind in that metric.

in my opinion, Duke and Penn State might be the two most likely to play themselves out, with possibly Syracuse and Harvard as the next two.

I think only Princeton, Maryland, Cornell, and Ohio State should really be considered “safe”.

North Carolina has the same kind of widths as Syracuse and Duke. (#15 type teams) but they have not played enough. Good teams to say they’re safe.

What's helping Duke is they continue to get solid wins over high mid majors. The Richmond and St. Joes wins are going to continue to age well. Judging by Danowski's history they will also beat BU and have 3 solid non power team wins. The Denver loss isn't great but assuming they win out in the BE or only lose to G-town it will be looked at as quality or semi-quality loss. Duke's bigger issue is the ACC itself. ND and UNC are their first two games, and both those games could easily be losses (SU is in the same boat). Start off 0-2 and then the concerns about the ACC tourney itself will creep in.

 

[BillSU]

What's helping Duke is they continue to get solid wins over high mid majors. The Richmond and St. Joes wins are going to continue to age well. Judging by Danowski's history they will also beat BU and have 3 solid non power team wins. The Denver loss isn't great but assuming they win out in the BE or only lose to G-town it will be looked at as quality or semi-quality loss. Duke's bigger issue is the ACC itself. ND and UNC are their first two games, and both those games could easily be losses (SU is in the same boat). Start off 0-2 and then the concerns about the ACC tourney itself will creep in.

Just WIN baby, one at a time!