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Message: [QUOTE="Knicks411, post: 2483764, member: 767"] Here's a question I have for jncuse, I know you looks at the rpi forecast a lot, so maybe you have some insight here. I'm not good at pasting pictures, so apologies, but here is our rpi forecast [B]Final Record[/B] [B]Expected RPI[/B] [B]Probability[/B] 23-8 14.7 0.17% 22-9 19.8 2.55% 21-10 26.8 12.59% 20-11 35.5 27.45% 19-12 44.7 31.81% 18-13 53.8 19.11% 17-14 63.6 5.62% 16-15 76.5 0.69% It seems like we have a relatively wide range out comes; ie, 20-11 we are like a 36 RPI, one extra win moves you up to 27, one fewer win is 45. Pretty big swing. Is this normal? (I feel like no, but you definitely have a lot more experience with it than me) I was also looking at some of the teams we have already beaten, (warning, lot of text incoming!!!!) 1) Buffalo currently has an RPI of 32. Expected RPI is 33, but using their numbers, they have a 50-50 shot (53% actually) of finishing with an RPI better than 30, which would make them a quad one win. 2) Toledo is currently 73, projected to finish right around there. 75 is the important number here, if they remain 75 or better (about 59%) that's a quad 2 win. 3) UConn is currently at 95, but projected for 104. For neutral site wins, 100 is the dividing line between quad 2 and 3. They have about a 55% chance of staying in the top 100. 4) Georgetown currently 149, projected around 150. They'd need to move into the top 135 to make it a quad 2 win. About a 25% chance, I hesitate to even include it. We also have some shots coming up, Clemson, UNC, Miami, and Duke all look to be quad 1 teams. NC State would currently be a quad 2 win for us (63 RPI) but is projected to drop to 76, right outside the top 75. Of the wins we've already banked, I think the Buffalo one is pretty big, would be nice to flip it to tier 1 (though per the Warren Nolan site, they are 27 and not 33, so it's already one) [/QUOTE]

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