Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season

[jncuse]

Thought I would track we are tracking as a tourney team throughout the ACC Regular Season. I will try to update this at least once a week, and will continue to post in this thread.

January 6 before the Notre Dame game

Syracuse Per Bracket Matrix Method - #10 Seed, #39 overall
Syracuse Per My Adjusted Ranking - #9 seed, #33 overall

The matrix takes the teams that are "in" the most, and then seeds based on averages.
Per that method, as per above, we are #39 at an average seed of 9.5

I prefer the method of ranking teams by the number of "ins". So at 48, we would be above Auburn, Florida, SMU, Notre Dame, Alabama, Minnesota.

These are the comparables to teams that are out. Nice to see Washington getting some transaction, getting in on nearly 25% of the rankings.

Granted, some of these rankings are utter crap, you will find a number that put some decent thought into it, so the matrix is always a good indicator to follow.

By Conference (as of now)
ACC - 9
SEC - 8
Big 12 - 6
Big Ten - 6 (Don't Expect this too last)
Big East - 5
Pac 12 - 3
American - 3
WCC - 2
Mountain West - 2
A-10 - 2

 

[jncuse]

This is the updated matrix before the Jan 9th game against Virginia

We are still in on 86% of the Brackets, as compared to 89% before last game.

Syracuse per Bracket Matrix Method is #41, as compared to #39 before last game. (11 vs 10 seed)
Based on my method of using the data we are at #38, as compared to #33 before last game. (10 vs 9 seed)

As a point of interest, Houston, Georgia and Ohio St are in, and St. Bonaventure, Alabama and Boise St. are out. since our last game.

 

[JrodCuse]

As of right now we're essentially on that first four in line being an 11 seed. Not a safe place to be with how anemic we've looked the last few games.

 

[jncuse]

January 13th after Virginia before Florida St

We are now in on 59 of 73 brackets, or 80%. This is down from 86% prior to the Virginia game.

Based on bracket matrix method, Syracuse is down to #43 from #41 prior to the Virginia game (11 seed to Play in)
On my method they are down to #39 vs #38. (10 seed vs 10 seed)

In reality the Virginia loss on the road shouldn't really hurt us, but there was a few schools that had decent wins and moved by us (UCLA, Louisville)

Marquette moved in and Minnesota moved out of the tourney.
Washington continues to move up (6th Out, 5th out, now 3rd out)

 

[realorange]

Wake me up at the end of February.

 

[jncuse]

Wake me up at the end of February.

Thanks for the useless response. It's not like I am littering this talk across multiple threads. I am keeping it contained to one thread for information that some may enjoy. If you don't enjoy it that's fine, move on. It's called respect.

 

[realorange]

Thanks for the useless response. It's not like I am littering this talk across multiple threads. I am keeping it contained to one thread for information that some may enjoy. If you don't enjoy it that's fine, move on. It's called respect.

You are right. I really am not interested in what you are doing but in no way am I trying to disrespect your effort.
I do tend to get a little cynical/sarcastic at times and I certainly didn't mean anything personal.

 

[Cuseball]

Thanks for the useless response. It's not like I am littering this talk across multiple threads. I am keeping it contained to one thread for information that some may enjoy. If you don't enjoy it that's fine, move on. It's called respect.

I love this topic and since I live and breath cuse hoops can't get enough. I'm already checking the nightly schedules and seeing who I should root for. Keep it coming and thanks for the work. Cuse!

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

I love this topic and since I live and breath cuse hoops can't get enough. I'm already checking the nightly schedules and seeing who I should root for. Keep it coming and thanks for the work. Cuse!

Ditto, love this stuff. Thanks your work!

 

[jncuse]

You are right. I really am not interested in what you are doing but in no way am I trying to disrespect your effort.
I do tend to get a little cynical/sarcastic at times and I certainly didn't mean anything personal.

I appreciate your comment. I certainly understand your sentiment that some fans think this is too early. And as someone who can be sarcastic at times as well, I can't take it personally.

 

[jncuse]

Value or Not?

There seems to me some great odds for certain teams that are currently projected as #1-#3 seeds. (Virginia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Purdue (which was 50:1 until today), Texas Tech). Alternatively, big name or big prospect U is getting so-so odds., which is expected

It's also odd where Wichita St and Gonzaga are compared to others. Why are they getting so much love versus an Oklahoma, Virginia or West Virginia?

Source: Bet365

Odds indicate how much money you would make on a $100 bet. Alternatively,
+4000 = 40 to 1
+800 = 8 to 1

Here are the odds based on current seed


#1 Villanova = (8 to 1)

#1 Virginia = (40 to 1)

#1 Duke = (5 to 1)

#1 West Virginia = (50 to 1)

#2 Purdue = (50 to 1)

#2 Michigan St = (5.5 to 1)

#2 Oklahoma = (50 to 1)

#2 Kansas = (13 to 1)

#3 Xavier = (28 to 1)

#3 Texas Tech =(1oo to 1)

#3 Wichita St - (18 to 1)

#3 North Carolina = (2o to 1)

#4 Arizona St (25 to 1)

#4 Seton Hall (66 to 1)

#4 Clemson (350 to 1)

#4 Kentucky (11 to 1)

#5 Arizona (10 to 1)

#5 TCU (80 to 1)

#5 Cincinnati (33 to 1)

#5 Auburn (250 to 1)

#6 Tennessee (200 to 1)

#6 Gonzaga (22 to 1)

#6 Creighton (150 to 1)

#6 Miami (66 to 1)

I made the following bet yesterday - I received 10 to 1 odds, that one of the following would win the national title. Seemed like decent odds to me in this confusing season.
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Purdue
Virginia
Auburn
Clemson
Texas Tech

 

[jncuse]

Before the game vs Pittsburgh on January 16

After last game we have fell from 80% of brackets to 68% of brackets. It's been a slow decline over 3 games (losing road games against quality opponents is not going to kill you), but I can assure you if we lose to sPitt we will be out.

Per Bracket Matrix method we are now #44 vs #43 (play in game)
Per my method we are at #42 vs #39 (#11 seed)

Boise St, Alabama and Western Kentucky moved in the tournament (although Western Kentucky is more due to method of compiling the matrix). SMU, Georgia, and Baylor moved out.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Another year sweating selection sunday. Can't wait!

 

[jncuse]

Just updating the bracket before our game at BC, just to follow the trends throughout the year and not just for Syracuse.

Prior to the Pitt game, an eternity ago, we were in on 68% of the brackets. and at #42, the 5th last team in. (#42 is based on brackets you are in, not avg seed).
We have now fell to 55% of the brackets, and are at #45, 2nd last team in.

As it is conference season, some P5 teams have been able to get some big wins to move up the ladder. The fact that we did not hold steady over our break possibly shows the bubble is getting a little stronger. Then again the teams that are out are not strong either as of now.

The team that has made the biggest positive move in the last 10 days is Kansas St who have run through 3 consecutive Big Eight wins. Shows you what a winning streak can do.

 

[jncuse]

Just logging this, as my intent was to track this before every game.

After the win vs BC , we moved up from 55% to 65% of brackets. We are still team #45 (second last team) in the ranking.

Washington continues to hang on. Expect NC St to move up by next game.

A little depressing to see Maryland and Virginia Tech continue to fall.

 

[jncuse]

Now let's win today.

 

[jncuse]

Logging in the current matrix before the Tech game.

We made some upwards progress after the Pitt game... We were at 65% of brackets, now we are up 84% of brackets. We have moved up to #43 (vs #45) after the last win. That would still be last 4 in status.

The big reason we moved up is 2 teams that crashed on the matrix since our last game:
Missouri fell from 89% to 40% of the brackets after losing to Auburn at Home, and at Miss St.
Notre Dame fell from 52% to 14% of the brackets after losing at home to Virginia Tech and Duke

The big mover upward has been NC St, who was not even last 8 out up to 68% of the brackets, after 2 road wins at Pitt and UNC. After beating UNC people started to realize the amount of quality wins, despite some holes they have had. At UNC, Neutral Arizona, Home Duke, Home Clemson is a great win profile early on.

The first 8 out are slowly thinning.

 

[jncuse]

Strength of Bubble Factor - This is calculated by taking the # of brackets the first 8 teams out are in divided by the number of brackets. The lower the number indicates the bubble is thinning and weakening.

Here is the trend:
January 6 - 2.65
January 9 - 2.69
January 12 - 2.75
January 16 - 2.84
January 24 - 2.13
January 27 - 1.98
January 31 - 1.94

Prior Years at this time (using archive.org and nearest data point within 5 days of Jan 31)
2017 - 2.73
2016 - 2.27
2015 - 1.64

 

[CorduroyG]

nc state will be tough to keep out with those wins unless they crash and burn

 

[littlereg]

nc state will be tough to keep out with those wins unless they crash and burn

They also have two terrible losses in nonconference as well. Depends where their win total is at but their resume will be similar to ours last year

 

[jncuse]

They also have two terrible losses in nonconference as well. Depends where their win total is at but their resume will be similar to ours last year

I was going to say more like ours in 2016, since they quality wins away from home as well... and we had those crappy losses both years.

 

[jncuse]

As it's pretty much February, for now I will start tracking games in the last 8 in / first 8 out group each day. Will keep it to this thread.

Houston is the currently the 8th last team in. This win would put them in great shape moving forward. KenPom #36. They have gathered wins against Arkansas, Providence, Wichita St already. But there are stinker opportunities in the AAC every game.

 

[jncuse]

 

[jncuse]

Only bright spot is that overall teams in L8 In / F8 Out are 2-5 tonight.

 

[20Plus]

Thanks for the useless response. It's not like I am littering this talk across multiple threads. I am keeping it contained to one thread for information that some may enjoy. If you don't enjoy it that's fine, move on. It's called respect.

Good work I appreciate it I don't know what's wrong with some of these people