Tracking the Bubble

[jncuse]

I thought I would use this thread to post games of bubble teams each day and to discuss results.

For now I consider the bubble to be a 9-12 seed to the last 8 teans out. At 9 seed a couple slip ups will push you down quickly. I will use the Bracket Matrix for Seeds

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 7

Seeds in Brackets, vs.=Home Game
Win Probability per RPI Forecast
Top 50 Win Oppoerunity in Bold
** Bubble Buster Teams that you want to lose that status.

12:00
(#12) George Washington at VCU (25%) (W 72-69)
(#10) Florida St at Wake Forest (64%) (W 91-71)
(#11) Cincy at Memphis (62%) (L 72-69)

2:00
(#11) St. Joes at Fordham (66%) (W 82-60)
(Last 8 Out) Texas Tech at Texas (25%) (L 69-59)

4:00
(#12) Clemson at Virginia Tech (57%) (L 60-57)
(#9) South Carolina at Texas AM (19%) (W 81-78)
(#9) California vs. (Last 8) Stanford (77%) (Cal W 76-61)
(#12) San Diego St ** vs New Mexico (66%) (W 78-71)
(#11) Valparaiso ** at Illinois Chicago (99%) (W 73-55)

4:30
(#11) Butler at St. John's (89%) (W 89-56)
(#10) Washington vs Arizona (34%) (L 77-72)

6:00
(Last 8 Out) LSU vs Miss St. (74%) (W 88-77)

8:00
(Last 4 Out) Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (75%) (L 85-78)

8:30
(Last 4 Out) Oregon St vs Colorado (53%) (W 60-56)

9:00
(#10) Seton Hall vs Georgetown (69%) (W 69-61)
(#9) St Mary's at San Diego (96%) (W 60-43)

Midnight
(#11) Gonzaga at Pepperdine (77%)

The bold games are definetely of interest as they present top 50 win opportunities. Some of them are at home, so teams like Oregon St have a very good chance of moving up.

 

[jncuse]

2 fairly significant results already today.

1. A huge road win by George Washington over a team already in the tournament in VCU (although expect VCU to fall to a bubble seed by next game)
2. Cincy gets upset in a fairly tough road game at Memphis. The AAC has to get some automatic bid. And none of its teams are off the bubble yet.

Also of note is Michigan blowing two opportunities at top 50 home wins this week. (Indiana and Michigan St). Neither are horrible losses, but you can't let them all slide. Except them to be on the bubble (but currently in) next week.

 

[jdubs30]

AAC is steamrolling towards 1 bid. We need UConn to win the AAC tourney. Memphis/Cincy/Temple have a lot of work to do to get at-larges. The committee has proven they don't give much respect to the American.

UConn is close to a lock now, so we need them to win (plus it helps our RPI).

 

[jncuse]

AAC is steamrolling towards 1 bid. We need UConn to win the AAC tourney. Memphis/Cincy/Temple have a lot of work to do to get at-larges. The committee has proven they don't give much respect to the American.

UConn is close to a lock now, so we need them to win (plus it helps our RPI).

I don't disagree with the premise of having one of Cincy / UConn step it up while the other falls, and then win the ACC tourney,

Note that I included Cincy, because UConn is far from close to a lock at this point. They have a shot at some quality wins down the stretch, but they are really lacking in them.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Texas AnM just lost to South Carolina at home smh

 

[Alsacs]

Clemson losing at VPI helps us. It knocks Clemson back to the middle of the ACC pack and we just beat VPI.

 

[jncuse]

Some interesting results in the 4:00 games as noted above by Alsacs and Paulie.

1. South Carolina wins at Texas AM (they were a 9 point dog) - I have never seen a 20-3 team in a power conference as a 9 seed at this point. Not sure if it is disrespect though -- they have an empty resume and many predicted them to really slow down based on efficiency. This is a big win for them and they will be off the bubble for a while I think

2. Clemson loses a game as a slight favourite - See Alsacs comment above. Clemson because of their bad OOC has to nail every game it is a favoured in. An RPI of 80 is going to be tough for them to reach, which has always been dead zone no matter the quality victories.

 

[Dave85]

Clemson losing at VPI helps us. It knocks Clemson back to the middle of the ACC pack and we just beat VPI.

It's kind of funny to think Clemson losing at VPI determines us making the NCAA tournament. But I guess in the age fancy computer math that's what it takes.

 

[jdubs30]

FYI we have 5 top 50 wins. Only 2 of them were at the Dome

 

[SUintheVille]

This is a good thread, but let's hope SU has nothing to do with it by end of season, i.e., they are clearly in.

 

[jncuse]

It's kind of funny to think Clemson losing at VPI determines us making the NCAA tournament. But I guess in the age fancy computer math that's what it takes.

It has no impact on the computer (i.e. RPI). One team on our schedule was going to get a win. one was going to get a loss.

But it helps us in that Virginia Tech is not a contender for an at large, and Clemson was (but their margin for error is small). So it weakens the bubble.

 

[jncuse]

FYI we have 5 top 50 wins. Only 2 of them were at the Dome

Those 3 wins against top 50 not at home is why I like our chances even if we only got to 9-9.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Those 3 wins against top 50 not at home is why I like our chances even if we only got to 9-9.

Yeah, I don't think we're actually on the bubble.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah, I don't think we're actually on the bubble.

We are in "As of Now" ... but we are about a 10 seed by consensus. We don't have to slip up much (like all 9-12 seeds) to fall back on the outside. Which is my I am tracking all team from 9-12 seed (and the last 8 out)

 

[nycfan]

jncuse--your original post that started this thread is really a great piece of work. Thank you for putting the time in.

It's interesting how some of the folks that do this for a living have such a broad range for Cuse. This morning Lunardi moved us up a tad from "last 4 in" to 44 on his s-curve seeding, thus, the last 11-seed (and also the last bye--so still just 5 spots from being out). But that is about the worst I have seen over the past week. Jerry Palm moved us up from 10 to 9 yesterday, and the best one I have seen is Stewart Mandel (Fox Sports), who brought us up to 8 !!

http://www.foxsports.com/college-ba...yes-kansas-jayhawks-villanova-wildcats-020516

 

[jncuse]

jncuse--your original post that started this thread is really a great piece of work. Thank you for putting the time in.

It's interesting how some of the folks that do this for a living have such a broad range for Cuse. This morning Lunardi moved us up a tad from "last 4 in" to 44 on his s-curve seeding, thus, the last 11-seed (and also the last bye--so still just 5 spots from being out). But that is about the worst I have seen over the past week. Jerry Palm moved us up from 10 to 9 yesterday, and the best one I have seen is Stewart Mandel (Fox Sports), who brought us up to 8 !!

http://www.foxsports.com/college-ba...yes-kansas-jayhawks-villanova-wildcats-020516

Thanks for the compliment -- I intend to do this every day with significant action. Only 3 games tomorrow, so I will just add to this thread.

Interesting to see that range amongst the national reporters (you can also look at the matrix to see the wide range, although some of those brackets are not "pros") . The committee sometimes does some strange stuff on the bottom at large lines IMO ** I guess it just depends on what the person doing the bracket thinks an inconsistent committee will find most important.

** Not to say they have done a bad job of determining of who is and out in the past, but those last 10 teams in sometimes appear oddly seeded.

 

[pearl31]

(#10) Florida St at Wake Forest (64%) (W 91-71)

looks like Fla St is playing some good ball now. Game on Thursday is gonna be tough and gonna be important

 

[WaHoos4Me]

Think I said early in January, Cuse would be a 6 seed... still a good possibility...

 

[sugrad68]

looks like Fla St is playing some good ball now. Game on Thursday is gonna be tough and gonna be important

For sure. FSU is playing their best ball of the season right now. Bacon and Beasley will be tough to stop. The good news is that FSU does not have a great power inside game which is where SU gets killed. SU needs more out of their 3-point shooters than they got against VT and GT (33.3%). Let's be honest -- we could have very easily lost to GT and should have lost to VT. If we play against FSU like we did against VT and GT it will be difficult to win. Win against FSU and BC and the road to the Big Dance will be easier.

 

[jncuse]

It is interesting to see that Wisconsin has now moved to #3 last team out by consensus (in 19 of 80 brackets).

They certainly turned it around -- I know Pearl (amongst others) kept on repeating that they will be better by season's end and that is certainly becoming the case. They may replace Michigan from the B10 if the Wolverines don't turn it around.

 

[TexanMark]

jncuse--your original post that started this thread is really a great piece of work. Thank you for putting the time in.

It's interesting how some of the folks that do this for a living have such a broad range for Cuse. This morning Lunardi moved us up a tad from "last 4 in" to 44 on his s-curve seeding, thus, the last 11-seed (and also the last bye--so still just 5 spots from being out). But that is about the worst I have seen over the past week. Jerry Palm moved us up from 10 to 9 yesterday, and the best one I have seen is Stewart Mandel (Fox Sports), who brought us up to 8 !!

http://www.foxsports.com/college-ba...yes-kansas-jayhawks-villanova-wildcats-020516

Normally want nothing to do with an 8/9...but sign me up for this bracket. #8 Florida then #1 Nova in Brooklyn...

 

[Alsacs]

jncuse I am looking at Nova's resume they beat Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, and St. Joseph's are those wins are enough to get Nova a 1 seed? They beat Providence today to split their season record and beat Xavier at home.

My god they look like they have had such a soft schedule. Can we please get put in their pod for 1st weekend if we can make the NCAAT.

 

[pearl31]

jncuse I am looking at Nova's resume they beat Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, and St. Joseph's are those wins are enough to get Nova a 1 seed? They beat Providence today to split their season record and beat Xavier at home.

My god they look like they have had such a soft schedule. Can we please get put in their pod for 1st weekend if we can make the NCAAT.

just like last year - they have almost the same team and are just as unconvincing - I believe they lost early as a 1 seed, too (round of 32 to NC st I believe)

 

[jncuse]

jncuse I am looking at Nova's resume they beat Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Arkansas, and St. Joseph's are those wins are enough to get Nova a 1 seed? They beat Providence today to split their season record and beat Xavier at home.

My god they look like they have had such a soft schedule. Can we please get put in their pod for 1st weekend if we can make the NCAAT.

It's probably enough this year -- I was just quickly scanning the OOC's of some of the top teams right now, and no one was dominant.

Villanova has done well against middle seed / bubble level / top 100 teams. Similar to last year, they pile up the resume against those type of teams. (Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown + the teams you mentioned). It's not gaming by any means, but the Big East gives you a chance to get a lot of decent victories.

But this year's team is looking to possibly only go 2-4 against Elite teams in the regular season. They are currently 2-3, and the last game is at Xavier. If they go 2-4 in those games it has to take some shine off them.

But in the end if they continue to beat all the mid-level competition and get to the BET Final ... either them or Xavier will get a #1 I suppose.
I would like them in our bracket -- we had them beat last year.

I see they are #1 in KP. (actually seems Iowa just jumped a fraction ahead of them). What is interesting, is that 6 teams had a higher rating last year compared to the top team this year. Shows the lack of dominance this year.

 

[nycfan]

The Hall just finished off Georgetown, dropping them to 13-11. Their NIT bid could be in danger! It's 11:12pm and...