Tracking the Bubble

[pearl31]

No song, but I found a very short child story endorsed by the NCAA called "Roy, Johnny and Coach K are OK"


It was a beautiful March day in Kansas, Every year a group of men would meet to determine who has been good and bad. Who has been nice and will be asked to play ? And what about the monster -- a big ugly Orange monster called Jimmy.

Jimmy was bad. He played the game differently and that made it hard for others. He was mean to people who talked to him. Not only was Jimmy naughty but so were his friends - his friends that lived in igloos and were nasty snow monsters. They smoked and were bad little boys.

But this year the men were brave. They all stood up and made sure only good people were allowed to play. With all their energy they fought off the monsters from the North until they went away.

All the kids in town could rejoice as the world was saved from the Orange monster. After all, Roy, Johnny, and Coach K were OK.

well done!

 

[RandygoCuse]

Lunardi has Clemson in Next Four Out, but has both us and FSU in. Does anyone else think this is weird?

 

[pearl31]

Lunardi has Clemson in Next Four Out, but has both us and FSU in. Does anyone else think this is weird?

No.

 

[jncuse]

Thought of a quicker way to do it. (Odds are in the corner)

Can people read it? I just snipped from ESPN


UConn #9 Seed

FSU #9 Seed at Syracuse #10 Seed

VCU#9 Seed

 

[RandygoCuse]

No.

OK - i guess their bad losses hurt more than their good wins help.

 

[jncuse]

#12 seed - slight chance at a bubble buster -- it was a stretch for me to Include them

#12 seed bubble buster

Cal #9 Seed

 

[jncuse]

St Mary's 10 Seed
Goznaga 11 Seed
Oregon St 11 Seed

 

[pearl31]

yep.
Go Oregon and Stanford tonight!!

 

[pearl31]

OK - i guess their bad losses hurt more than their good wins help.

yeah their OOC is horrible, causing horrible RPI #

 

[jncuse]

OK - i guess their bad losses hurt more than their good wins help.

I agree with Lunardi. Here is how I compare the two:

Clemson may end up 2 games ahead of Syracuse into ACC. But coming into January 1, they were at least 3 games behind resume wise.

I think the old approach at the turn of the decade where they valued conference play a little more, they would have been fine. But they seem to stress the entire season now (whether fair or not)

It's not only bad losses, but no good wins either before ACC.


Either way thanks for the discussion point,

 

[pulaski74]

No prob. These are not personal assessments, or the assessments of any one person out there.

I am using the bracket matrix website for where the teams are seeded: It's a consolidation of all the brackets that are out there.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

The last 4 in, would the the last 4 of the 32 at large bids in the tournament. If you look at the bracket matrix they can be identified as the last 4 teams that are not bolded (look at the 11/12 line). Not every person that is doing the bracket has them in, but they are getting more at large bids than then next group.

The last 4 out (or last 8 out).. They are at the bottom of the matrix. Some people have them in, but the majority do not.

thanks

 

[jncuse]

All is going very well tonight,

1. Another win, one game closer to not having to worry about the bubble from our perspective.
2. UConn loses to Temple - Temple is getting close to entering the discussion, but certainly not in, so net positive.
3. VCU suffers a bad loss at UMass
4. Chattanooga who was 22-3 and had an RPI in the 30's is down by 13 against a bad Western Carolina team. They would have had a hard time as an at-large if they loss their tourney. But this should kill that possibility.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Uconns resume blows

 

[Briancuse]

yep.
Go Oregon and Stanford tonight!!

As long as we keep taking care of business, we will be ok.

 

[jncuse]

Uconns resume blows

They have a few decent wins that are away from home (Texas / Michigan) The biggest positive they have going is they have done nothing really bad, and have no bad losses. Not many any other bubble teams can say that.

It's a modest resume, they would still be in as of today, but they are stumbling.

They have 4 pretty meaningul games coming up -- SMU (2). Tulsa, Cincy. If they go 2-2 in those games and avoid a bad loss, they will be fine.

Here's to them going 1-3.

 

[PauliePeppas]

They have a few decent wins that are away from home (Texas / Michigan) The biggest positive they have going is they have done nothing really bad, and have no bad losses. Not many any other bubble teams can say that.

It's a modest resume, they would still be in as of today, but they are stumbling.

They have 4 pretty meaningul games coming up -- SMU (2). Tulsa, Cincy. If they go 2-2 in those games and avoid a bad loss, they will be fine.

Here's to them going 1-3.

Missed that Mich game... It was in Ann Arbor? Yea it really helps not having those What losses

 

[NineOneSeven]

They have a few decent wins that are away from home (Texas / Michigan) The biggest positive they have going is they have done nothing really bad, and have no bad losses. Not many any other bubble teams can say that.

It's a modest resume, they would still be in as of today, but they are stumbling.

They have 4 pretty meaningul games coming up -- SMU (2). Tulsa, Cincy. If they go 2-2 in those games and avoid a bad loss, they will be fine.

Here's to them going 0-4.

Fixed

 

[jncuse]

Missed that Mich game... It was in Ann Arbor? Yea it really helps not having those What losses

First round of Atlantis, before we played them.

 

[jncuse]

With the extra confidence from winning, the bubble starts to become a little less of a concern (but still a oncern)

There was a few results of note late Thursday.

• Cal Solidified its #9 seed with a Huge top 25 RPI win over Oregon.
• Arkansas St, similar to Chattanooga above, lost to a subpar team. They were #12 on the matrix, but seems like they would ne out -- But at 21-2, I wouldn't want to risk a 3 loss bubble buster.
• Oregon St won an important road game at Stanford
• St, Mary's lost at home to Pepperdine. WCC could be a one bid league.

Given the losses of VCU, UConn and St. Mary;s.. it was net positive for us (plues we won)

 

[Rage4CUSE]

Oh man, on a day like today. There have to be at least 10 bubbles games going on. You keeping us updated on today's games too?

 

[pearl31]

• St, Mary's lost at home to Pepperdine. WCC could be a one bid league.

yeah at this point I think it has to be a one bid league - St Marys could slip in but for sure Gonzaga has to win their tourney to get in