Transfer Targets 2026

[longtimefan]

It seems rather quiet, but not overwhelmed with the guys SU is involved with. I expected us to be involved with a few top level guys. It’s still early, but this current roster is very average at best.

"Current roster" is 5.

7 to 10 more slots to be filled.

 

[Cusefan0307]

It seems rather quiet, but not overwhelmed with the guys SU is involved with. I expected us to be involved with a few top level guys. It’s still early, but this current roster is very average at best.

We are the only team in the ACC even with a committed transfer right now.

 

[Melancer46]

"Current roster" is 5.

7 to 10 more slots to be filled.

This is true, but pretty likely 2 or 3 of our starters are already on that roster. Having said that, for all we know those guys end up being our bottom 2 or 3 starters (doubtful but we'll see!)

No point in panicking until we know what the final roster looks like.

 

[AngryOtto]

I think it’s good the staff is not tipping who they are really interested in. Why create a bidding war. It’s the agents that are leaking interest in attempt to drive up the price.

 

[Orangezoo]

This is true, but pretty likely 2 or 3 of our starters are already on that roster. Having said that, for all we know those guys end up being our bottom 2 or 3 starters (doubtful but we'll see!)

No point in panicking until we know what the final roster looks like.

Not to mention if there are guys we have relationships with who haven’t gone portaling yet too…

Don’t want to be a broken record but we have new staff who have different networks and have watched different teams and players at their previous stops. That’s a lot of territory to traverse but also a lot of insight and opportunity. Just as much as Brunt clearly have some overseas connections that may again come in handy too.

 

[007]

No point in panicking until we know what the final roster looks like.

This is great advice and, apparently, cannot be repeated often enough.

I would add that talking in absolutes about starters (not aimed at you, Melancer) is also premature. There is a lot of portal movement yet to come. I don't expect that we will be real contenders for any of the top end guys. But I do expect that we will be adding several more skilled players that fit the culture.

 

[Orangezoo]

This is great advice and, apparently, cannot be repeated often enough.

I would add that talking in absolutes about starters (not aimed at you, Melancer) is also premature. There is a lot of portal movement yet to come. I don't expect that we will be real contenders for any of the top end guys. But I do expect that we will be adding several more skilled players that fit the culture.

One thing and I think 0307 pointed it out is what makes a top guy/star? I think that’s a very fair question and the margins are not huge at this level of hoops. Which is why it’s also so maddening to see some of the larger deals that get cut.

Look at two guys we are connected with. Estrella and Allenspach. The latter far more realistic as numbers play out but essentially put up similar numbers and are about the same size. Estrella has the higher ceiling and more impactful on the boards but Allenspach is the beefier of the two and has been very productive yet also healthy. Allenspach would be a great add but won’t qualify under that “top guy “ moniker. He also could have just as much impact or even a negligible amount less.

The conversation of where they are in 3 years may be a much wider margin but as for right now and next year…

 

[BEGood]

This is great advice and, apparently, cannot be repeated often enough.

I would add that talking in absolutes about starters (not aimed at you, Melancer) is also premature. There is a lot of portal movement yet to come. I don't expect that we will be real contenders for any of the top end guys. But I do expect that we will be adding several more skilled players that fit the culture.

Which is fine. Often times winning culture is bigger than getting top transfers. We gotta win this year to increase the nil next year to then target the bigger transfers that fit what Gmac is trying to do here. Look at Purdue. They kept pretty much their entire team. They have some culture there that allows that to still happen.

 

[007]

One thing and I think 0307 pointed it out is what makes a top guy/star? I think that’s a very fair question and the margins are not huge at this level of hoops. Which is why it’s also so maddening to see some of the larger deals that get cut.

Look at two guys we are connected with. Estrella and Allenspach. The latter far more realistic as numbers play out but essentially put up similar numbers and are about the same size. Estrella has the higher ceiling and more impactful on the boards but Allenspach is the beefier of the two and has been very productive yet also healthy. Allenspach would be a great add but won’t qualify under that “top guy “ moniker. He also could have just as much impact or even a negligible amount less.

The conversation of where they are in 3 years may be a much wider margin but as for right now and next year…

I think it's not difficult to know who the top guys are. I look at it more as an exercise in probability. It's not a coincidence that the blue blood programs seem to target the same guys. There is certainly a correlation between a history of high end productivity at the P5 level and the probability of success going forward. Similarly, there is a correlation for players at any level with elite numbers in one or more area (scoring, shooting, rebounding, shot blocking) and analytical data support (Bayesian Performance Rating, eFG%, TS%, USG%).

Those are the top guys. Teams are paying up for the higher correlation. That's why those large deals are made. Will there be exceptions? Yes, there always are. And this is true no matter what you are measuring. But, exceptions to the correlation do not disprove the correlation.

So...could Allenspach be the better player as compared to Estrella? Yup. But, Estrella was the better bet.

 

[Blanko97]

I think it’s good the staff is not tipping who they are really interested in. Why create a bidding war. It’s the agents that are leaking interest in attempt to drive up the price.

If they’re worth grabbing, the bidding war is already a reality

 

[OCESIP]

It seems rather quiet, but not overwhelmed with the guys SU is involved with. I expected us to be involved with a few top level guys. It’s still early, but this current roster is very average at best.

I'm not sure how you define "top level". Certainly SU is looking for
better than average talent that is part of a pool that is consistent
with their available NIL. Once the players get feedback from schools as to their realistic $$ value, things should start to move forward. I don't think too many players will get a windfall that doesn't reflect what their actual value is in a competitive market place.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think it's not difficult to know who the top guys are. I look at it more as an exercise in probability. It's not a coincidence that the blue blood programs seem to target the same guys. There is certainly a correlation between a history of high end productivity at the P5 level and the probability of success going forward. Similarly, there is a correlation for players at any level with elite numbers in one or more area (scoring, shooting, rebounding, shot blocking) and analytical data support (Bayesian Performance Rating, eFG%, TS%, USG%).

Those are the top guys. Teams are paying up for the higher correlation. That's why those large deals are made. Will there be exceptions? Yes, there always are. And this is true no matter what you are measuring. But, exceptions to the correlation do not disprove the correlation.

So...could Allenspach be the better player as compared to Estrella? Yup. But, Estrella was the better bet.

Correlation I don’t disagree with at all in terms who is targeted. Those variables show minor differences often and outcomes don’t necessarily diverge a great deal in terms of one year to where the $ spent and post season output for that one player correlates massively in terms of a 1 year outcome. Now when you say have 5 players with that small marginal difference then you start to see the difference in outcome. I don’t use it often but do have a mathematics degree from SU… just don’t ask for a refresher on Statics or Dynamics please lol. In summary I get it and do look at those metrics when time allows for these kids and even those are marginal here for most things with JP. The bigger difference of course is you must adjust for competition level which I don’t think any of the cbb statisticians that have emerged have nailed down yet given its not easy to do but common sense applies there just fine too.

Estrella demands more value for the sheer fact you can get two years vs one as well hence similar to some of the younger stars in the portal value vs a one year mercenary too.

 

[007]

Correlation I don’t disagree with at all in terms who is targeted. Those variables show minor differences often and outcomes don’t necessarily diverge a great deal in terms of one year to where the $ spent and post season output for that one player correlates massively in terms of a 1 year outcome. Now when you say have 5 players with that small marginal difference then you start to see the difference in outcome. I don’t use it often but do have a mathematics degree from SU… just don’t ask for a refresher on Statics or Dynamics please lol. In summary I get it and do look at those metrics when time allows for these kids and even those are marginal here for most things with JP. The bigger difference of course is you must adjust for competition level which I don’t think any of the cbb statisticians that have emerged have nailed down yet given its not easy to do but common sense applies there just fine too.

Estrella demands more value for the sheer fact you can get two years vs one as well hence similar to some of the younger stars in the portal value vs a one year mercenary too.

I think we are pretty much saying the same thing.

The biggest difference is I think it's easy to predict which players are going to demand the highest NIL. Whether the difference between those guys and next level guy is significant is a different debate.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think we are pretty much saying the same thing.

The biggest difference is I think it's easy to predict which players are going to demand the highest NIL. Whether the difference between those guys and next level guy is significant is a different debate.

Yep we definitely are lol and agreed. Honestly while we need to round things out well in the portal, the key measurement from a player standpoint is what this staff does for and does with Sadiq, 3M, Kiyan, Doty and FF (if he comes).

In building a team so far that’s 4 players who should often be in double figures most nights if we are doing things right. Paired with big who should be close to that in production and a PG who is at least 10/5. Not saying you see everyone average that but the capability to get double digits out of your top 7 is key if you are building this right.

Then you scale down to having enough balance with perimeter shooting, ability to defend well and rebound. Finally of course valuing the ball. Efficiency and maximizing the number and effectiveness of posessions.

Lastly need a couple guys who can get a bucket on their own- I think we may have that in the barn already but need it at PG too. Anyways long story short I can see where he’s going with things if the rumors to date are true including another mid major scoring wing targeted with good size.

Looking forward to seeing who this names are.

 

[LpoolNative]

Yep we definitely are lol and agreed.

Thoughts on the roster so far or too early to tell?

 

[Orangezoo]

Thoughts on the roster so far or too early to tell?

Good start- I can start to see the plan here. More progress needed but not going to obsess over the perspective a top 20 player or two is the benchmark to success. We need what we need and what will win. Hands down whether that comes from a recruit, the portal or overseas.

 

[rrlbees]

Plenty of time still but so far I am a bit disappointed. there’s still 2 weeks left so let’s see where it takes us.

theres still a lot more time than 2 weeks.

 

[LpoolNative]

Good start- I can start to see the plan here. More progress needed but not going to obsess over the perspective a top 20 player or two is the benchmark to success. We need what we need and what will win. Hands down whether that comes from a recruit, the portal or overseas.

LETS GO!