Triple Crown Winners: The Great Race

[SWC75]

Well, I'll Have Another won't, but the history of the Triple Crown is still an intereiitng subject. Here is a post I first made a couple of years ago, iamging a race among all the Triple Crown winners, +1:

The Triple Crown
Needing to get my mind off the 10 runs Johann Santana just gave up to the Phillies, I decided to take a look at horse racing’s triple crown. There have been 11 Triple Crown winners: Sir Barton in 1919, Gallant Fox in 1930, Omaha in 1935, War Admiral in 1937, Whirlaway in 1941, Count Fleet in 1943, Assault in 1946, Citation in 1948, Secretariat, (who they have made a movie about- it will be out in October), in 1973, Seattle Slew 1977 and Affirmed in 1978. What if they all had a race? Since 11 horses is an odd number, I decided to throw in a 12th- Man O’ War, perhaps the most famous horse of all.

Man O’ War was not entered in the Kentucky Derby because the owner didn’t like they way they raced in Kentucky, (for some reason). He likely would have won it- he won 20 of 21 races and the one time he lost the name of the horse who beat him became synonym for the victory of an underdog- “Upset”. Man O’ War easily beat Sir Barton in a match race and was universally regarded as the greatest thoroughbred ever until Secretariat.

So how do we “race” them all at once? First, I took note of the distance on the three triple crown races, reducing them to a single unit, feet. The Kentucky Derby has been run at a mile and a quarter since 1896. That’s 6600 feet. The Preakness was a mile and an eighth, or 5940 feet through 1924. After that it was a mile and 3/16th. That’s 6270 feet. The Belmont was a mile and 3/8, (7260 feet) until 1926, when it became a mile and a half. We need to figure out the rate at which all 12 horses traveled those distances.

Sir Barton ran the Derby in 2:09.80. That’s 129.8 seconds. 6600 feet divided by 129.8 seconds is 50.847457 feet per second. He ran the Preakness in 1:51.6 or 111.60 seconds. Divide that into 5940 feet and you get 53.225806 feet per second. He ran the Belmont in 2:17.40, or 137.40 seconds. Divide that into 7260 feet and you get. 52.838427 feet per second. Average those three rates and you get the combined speed with which Sir Barton ran the Triple Crown. I did that for each horse, using only the Preakness and Belmont for Man O’ War:

Sir Barton
52.303893 feet per second
Man O’ War
52.828983 feet per second
Gallant Fox
51.847443 feet per second
Omaha
52.641140 feet per second
War Admiral
53.134216 feet per second
Whirlaway
53.057653 feet per second
Count Fleet
53.216116 feet per second
Assault
51.962756 feet per second
Citation
52.296200 feet per second
Secretariat
54.882336 feet per second
Seattle Slew
53.773870 feet per second
Affirmed
54.259006 feet per second

I decided our fantasy race should be over the current Belmont distance, a mile and a half. That’s 7920 feet. At 54.882336 feet per second, Secretariat would run that in 144.31 seconds, (2 minutes 24.31 seconds). At 52.828983 feet per second, how far would Sir Barton have traveled in 144.31 seconds? He’d have traveled 7548 feet, finishing 372 feet behind Secretariat. A “length” is supposed to be about 8 feet, so that’s 47 lengths behind. Here is the final order of finish. I hit the “enter bar” to go to the next line for every length to give a graphic representation of the distances between the horses:

 

[SWC75]

Secretariat 2:24.31
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
Affirmed 2:25.97 (11 lengths behind)
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
Seattle Slew 2:27.28 (20 lengths behind)
　
Man O’War 2:29.92 (23 lengths behind)
　
　
　
　
　
　
　
Count Fleet 2:28.83 (31 lengths behind)
　
War Admiral 2:29.06 (33 lengths behind)
Whirlaway 2:29.27 (35 lengths behind)
　
　
　
　
　
　
Omaha 2:30.45 (42 lengths behind)
　
　
　
　
　
　
Sir Barton 2:31.42 (49 lengths behind)
Citation 2:31.44 (50 lengths behind)
　
　
　
　
　
Assault 2:32.42 (56 lengths behind)
　
Gallant Fox 2:32.76 (59 lengths behind)

So, what does this prove? Nothing. It’s just fun to imagine all these great horses in the same race and you have to base your imaginings on something. It’s interesting how dominant Secretariat is. I thought Citation was a lot better than that. His fame rested on the fact that there was no Triple Crown winner for a generation after that.

There is a general, but not absolute trend toward the more recent horse doing the best. Of course track conditions matter and jockeys matter. You could run the actual race, if there was one, multiple times and get multiple results. Some horses are “speed” horses that might do better over a lesser distance. Others are endurance horses that do better over a longer distance. Those things aren’t really accounted for here.