Trying to wrap my mind around lower expectations
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oldpinepoint
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im not at all, personally I think JB does better with teams that have low expectations.
RF2044
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I don't think you need to worry about #1. We have a LOT more options for shooters than last year.
I'll be surprised if we don't shoot the ball better collectively as a team, which will in turn lead to better floor spacing, which will in turn require defenses to play us more honestly, which will in turn open the lane up a bit for Joseph to penetrate, which will in turn create some open looks...
Lawrinson14
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I hate to say it, but I think this team will be a bubble team as well. Doesn't help that the ACC is so loaded with UNC, Duke, Louisville, Pitt, Virginia, and @ND.
br801
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This team looks to have many potential secondary 3-point threats. If that proves to be the case, this season will be a lot of fun to watch.
Townie72
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How anyone could have lived through the last 10 games of last season and then have difficulty restraining their optimism about this season is a testimony to the positive psychology of sports fans everywhere.
I'd take 20 and 11 and a tourney berth right now without a question. I haven't watched either exhibition game, but I doubt that you can learn much from them given the caliber of the opposition.
We'll know what we have after about 10 games. It took 26 games last year.
jordoo
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If your prediction od 20-11 is mainly due to outside shooting then you will be pleasantly surprised IMO. There isn't much we can do about being thin at the 5 spot at this point. Overall I'm pretty shocked by the low expectations of the board and the prediction thread was very surprising to me. I'm usually over optimistic about our squads, I know that but people seem to still be stuck in the doldrums of the end of last season to me. We aren't that team as 4 out of that 7 are gone.
Janner
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I agree with OP, I think we will be a bubble team. Its obviously very early so its hard to get a great feelfor this team but I do not see a go-to guy who can create his own shot when needed. I also think this team is going to get pushed around quite a bit. I am keeping my fingers cross that the light comes on for BJ and/or Tyler this year because we will need at least one if not both of them badly, unfortunatly I still thank thats a year away. One saving grace is that the ACC is, as it usually is, top heavy. if we can end up in the 5-8 range in the league we could get in the tourny. This is one year I can say it helps to not be in the physical year long battle that was the old big east... that hurt to say
jordoo
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In 07/08 we only won 21 games. That squad was far less experienced even than this as a Sophmore Paul Harris had the most experience after Devendorf went down.
08/09 28 wins. We lost Jonny, Devo, Paul, Kong
09/10 30 wins. We lost Andy, Wes, AO
10/11 27 wins. We only lost Rick
11/12 34 wins. We lost Scoop, Dion, Kris and Fab
12/13 30 wins. We lost MCW, Brandon, James
13/14 28 wins. We lost Tyler, Jerami, CJ, Baye
This season isn't all that different. We have lots of talent and 3 pretty experienced players back. Our two freshmen are very talented and will play a big roll but the over all success probably rides on the returning Sophmore class of Roberson, Johnson, Patterson, Obokoh. Winning 20 or 21 games is pretty rare for JB with the upgrade in talent level we have experienced of late.
08/09 28 wins. We lost Jonny, Devo, Paul, Kong
09/10 30 wins. We lost Andy, Wes, AO
10/11 27 wins. We only lost Rick
11/12 34 wins. We lost Scoop, Dion, Kris and Fab
12/13 30 wins. We lost MCW, Brandon, James
13/14 28 wins. We lost Tyler, Jerami, CJ, Baye
This season isn't all that different. We have lots of talent and 3 pretty experienced players back. Our two freshmen are very talented and will play a big roll but the over all success probably rides on the returning Sophmore class of Roberson, Johnson, Patterson, Obokoh. Winning 20 or 21 games is pretty rare for JB with the upgrade in talent level we have experienced of late.
RF2044
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I can understand the natural skepticism / wait and see attitudes being expressed. But I still don't think expectations should be "lower." This team might struggle early more than any recent teams, but that doesn't mean that they won't be better by the postseason.
My expectations aren't lower at all--I expect this team to be very good before its all said and done. How good? Stay tuned. Maybe the pieces of the puzzle won't fit as well together as I expect. Maybe we'll have an injury. Or maybe they're just too darn young.
But alternatively, they have a lot of talent. They have a lot of size. They have better depth than last year [except at C]. They have better shooting than last year. It really looks like it could be a fun year!
My expectations aren't lower at all--I expect this team to be very good before its all said and done. How good? Stay tuned. Maybe the pieces of the puzzle won't fit as well together as I expect. Maybe we'll have an injury. Or maybe they're just too darn young.
But alternatively, they have a lot of talent. They have a lot of size. They have better depth than last year [except at C]. They have better shooting than last year. It really looks like it could be a fun year!
Townie72
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What's the difference between "wait and see" and "How good? Stay tuned."?
Fair, Ennis, Grant and Baye were good players. The team was flawed (no scoring, especially inside scoring).
RF2044
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Simple--the difference is going in with lowered expectations based upon what happened last year, per your note above, versus having high expectations based upon the potential of a lot of new faces. "Stay tuned" was about not knowing how things will turn out, and which mind set proves to be the correct prediction.
jordoo
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Recent history tells us that in this situation we will win 26+ games and be very good as I clearly outlined above. There are no guarantees but every factor that I see being pointed to for a subpar season could have been pointed out in one of the last 6 seasons (and was) where we have been very good.
Townie72
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Well going into last season, I was sure that Fair and Grant would be much more effective players than they turned out to be. But it wasn't too deep into the season I started to see all the flaws. (Way before BC).
I'd rather be surprised than disappointed.
H
HOFCeluck
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Carleton is a legit team.
RF2044
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orangefan13
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I actually think this team is going to have between good and very good outside shooting in a JB language scale.
I think there will be nights when we chuck to many and make very few, and other nights where we might knock down 11-14 on 22-30attempts.
1.Last year, Gbinije and patteson didn't have a SG look to their release this year they do,
2. BJ is showing possible signs of improved accuracy taking his time more on his release.
3.McCulloughs stroke has a high arc on it(usually a good sign
4. Joseph has proven he has the potential to knock a few down, as well as Roberson once in awhile.
5. I just don't see the driving scoring outside Kaleb. Or the post up/shoot off the dribble game until bj, mccullough or to a lesson extent rak steps up, which will take time. Meanwhile we will be knocking down threes early in the season.
Strange indications after two exhibitions though, Kaleb lit carlton up off the drive then didn't drive at all against adrian. mccullough and rak didn't score inside against adrian's 5'6 center after putting up some nice points against carlton.
So the scoring really didn't come naturally to anyone against adrian, a sign of a very young basketball team, without a offensive leader yet(rak was the leader on defense though). That could be better then trying to force someone to be, especially with young players, as well as from a unselfish standpoint.
I think there will be nights when we chuck to many and make very few, and other nights where we might knock down 11-14 on 22-30attempts.
1.Last year, Gbinije and patteson didn't have a SG look to their release this year they do,
2. BJ is showing possible signs of improved accuracy taking his time more on his release.
3.McCulloughs stroke has a high arc on it(usually a good sign
4. Joseph has proven he has the potential to knock a few down, as well as Roberson once in awhile.
5. I just don't see the driving scoring outside Kaleb. Or the post up/shoot off the dribble game until bj, mccullough or to a lesson extent rak steps up, which will take time. Meanwhile we will be knocking down threes early in the season.
Strange indications after two exhibitions though, Kaleb lit carlton up off the drive then didn't drive at all against adrian. mccullough and rak didn't score inside against adrian's 5'6 center after putting up some nice points against carlton.
So the scoring really didn't come naturally to anyone against adrian, a sign of a very young basketball team, without a offensive leader yet(rak was the leader on defense though). That could be better then trying to force someone to be, especially with young players, as well as from a unselfish standpoint.
moqui
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the thing is . . . there is so much talent on this squad. CM is the most talented freshman since CA; Joseph is yet another in the long line of quality PGs we've been blessed with since Flynn; Roc is a defensive force; Shakey P, Silent G and TR are all quality rotation players. Patterson looks like a solid role player off the bench. And if DC can give minutes after the New Year . . . wow. All in all, I think this squad has the most raw talent since the title team. Give that kind of talent to a HC who is a bona fide basketball genius and its hard for me not to be excited about this year.
Cusefan0307
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I have no problem if people think we can win 26 or 27 or 20 or 21. Some people like to have lower expecation so they are surprised and satisfied and happy when the team outperforms their predictions. Other people like to be more optimistic because thats what jacks them up for the season.
moqui
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for sure, because the non-con schedule is built for a high SOS: potentially 3 top 25 teams before Christmas, none of them at home.
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