Two big road games coming up this week.

[cliftonparksufan]

Good news: We should be favored for both
Bad news: It's very difficult to win on the road in college basketball

Good news: The way we are playing we can beat anyone
Bad news: No bad news, maybe just some halftime adjustments needed

Good news: Tyus Battle
Bad news: Starting to resemble Malachi Richardson

Good news: Andrew White and John Gillon
Bad news (for other programs): Cuse is the sexy place to go if you are a grad transfer

Good news: 1000 wins
Bad news (for Bobby Knight): Three more wins to tie the General for the second time. Four to leave his candy striper pajama ass in the dust.

 

[jordoo]

I said if we beat FSU I'd start to believe. Since then a road win and another top10 home win. I'm in win both of these

 

[sugrad68]

You know Pitt will be looking for revenge after we destroyed them at the Dome. They gave Duke quite a battle today before fading at the end. Clemson, too, is a tough environment in which to win. I consider us a better team than either Pitt or Clemson but that means little this year.

 

[hoopsupstate]

SU will not be favored in either game.

 

[CaptainJ]

Bad news: Frank Howard.

I'm going to call in to SWC75 and recommend it to his downside after each game.

 

[CaptainJ]

SU will not be favored in either game.

They weren't in either of the last 2, or 3, right? I suppose that's good news, if you're betting Cuse...ans serves to remind us how arbitrary the words "good", and "bad" are, even in real life.

Bad news, still Frank Howard.

 

[CorduroyG]

I'll be very happy with a split.

11 acc wins is the magic #. Run the table at home, win 1 more on the road.

 

[jncuse]

Good news: We should be favored for both

Vegas certainly won't see it that way. The line is going to open around -5 (or even up to -6) for Clemson.

I will be very happy with a split this week. I don't want to lose momentum on the season like Georgia Tech did this week when they lost to Clemson and Wake.

 

[sugrad68]

Vegas certainly won't see it that way. The line is going to open around -5 (or even up to -6) for Clemson.

I will be very happy with a split this week. I don't want to lose momentum on the season like Georgia Tech did this week when they lost to Clemson and Wake.

Last week's game against NC State was Pick em by the time the game started. I think Clemson -5 is too much. They have to play at FSU tomorrow so they get one day less rest too.

 

[jncuse]

Last week's game against NC State was Pick em by the time the game started. I think Clemson -5 is too much. They have to play at FSU tomorrow so they get one day less rest too.

If they played on a neutral court, Clemson would be a 6-7 point favourite against NCSt. So that difference is actually within expectation.

The formula below has been 11 for 11 in projecting opening lines in ACC play (within a point), so I would not expect it to be different this time.

You can get the numbers from KenPom (I don't have the premium but you can use the front page data to calculate the spread). Vegas has to be using the same (or very similar) system as a baseline for it's lines.

Take Clemson Net Efficiency per 100 - +17.6
Take Syracuse Net Efficiency per 100 - +14.0
Average Pace for Both Teams = 67.4

Clemson on Neutral Court = (17.6-14)*(.674) = 2.4
Add Home Court Advantage of 3.5
Projected line -6.

I am taking off one point, which I normally don't because we are playing well... but so is Clemson.

Whether these lines make sense or not and can be taken advantage of is a different story, but I will let the pro gamblers (certainly not me) assess that.

 

[AZcuse77]

If they played on a neutral court, Clemson would be a 6-7 point favourite against NCSt. So that difference is actually within expectation.

The formula below has been 11 for 11 in projecting opening lines in ACC play (within a point), so I would not expect it to be different this time.

You can get the numbers from KenPom (I don't have the premium but you can use the front page data to calculate the spread). Vegas has to be using the same (or very similar) system as a baseline for it's lines.

Take Clemson Net Efficiency per 100 - +17.6
Take Syracuse Net Efficiency per 100 - +14.0
Average Pace for Both Teams = 67.4

Clemson on Neutral Court = (17.6-14)*(.674) = 2.4
Add Home Court Advantage of 3.5
Projected line -6.

I am taking off one point, which I normally don't because we are playing well... but so is Clemson.

Whether these lines make sense or not and can be taken advantage of is a different story, but I will let the pro gamblers (certainly not me) assess that.

I agree KenPom is pretty dead on the Vegas formula but it'll drop some from beating the #2 KenPom team. Vegas will sometimes "take a position" or adjust based on something like Cuse taking down two top 10 teams in a week winning 4 straight. I'm guessing with the press over our turn around / 1000 wins they'll adjust down to -4 Clemson and it'll be bet down to -2 or -3.

Pitt was #71 even before today's loss (despite lots of close losses) so that could very well be a -1 Pitt or pickem if Cuse wins at Clemson. No chance Cuse opens a favorite in either game. The bets are going to start flooding in on Cuse being "hot" but Vegas is smart enough to know this and adjust the open a little. I agree it won't be a lot.

 

[bballbeadle]

Good news: We should be favored for both
Bad news: It's very difficult to win on the road in college basketball

Good news: The way we are playing we can beat anyone
Bad news: No bad news, maybe just some halftime adjustments needed

Good news: Tyus Battle
Bad news: Starting to resemble Malachi Richardson

Good news: Andrew White and John Gillon
Bad news (for other programs): Cuse is the s e xy place to go if you are a grad transfer

Good news: 1000 wins
Bad news (for Bobby Knight): Three more wins to tie the General for the second time. Four to leave his candy striper pajama ass in the dust.

I love this. Smart AND funny!

 

[RF2044]

Good news: we're playing really well right now, and confidence has to be sky high.

Bad news: the two teams we face this week are also playing well, despite their records.

None of the remaining 7 games will be easy, amazingly. In addition to the above, GT is playing good ball, Duke while up and down is tough, and so is Louisville [twice]. Tough stretch, and we need at least 3 and possibly 4.

 

[AZcuse77]

Last week's game against NC State was Pick em by the time the game started. I think Clemson -5 is too much. They have to play at FSU tomorrow so they get one day less rest too.

That was from public / sharp betting not the open which is what he is talking about. Jncuse is right that it won't change a ton from the formula but you are probably correct that it will get bet down again from current results. I wish we could bet like the stock market and but at -4 to -6 then sell at what it is bet down to.

I don't think this time it'll be as big a secret so I do imagine Vegas will adjust it down a couple points.

 

[Shark58]

 

[Briancuse]

We need to get one of them.