Two things that pop out after the selection show...

[mantonio]

We have seen a ton of cinderella dancing in the past few years, & I think the odds are long it will happen again this season. Although Butler was a top 20 caliber team in 2010 & '11, you had to consider them a cinderella because they are a mid-major. I am not sure we even have a 'BUTLER' or VCU type team in the field, unless you want to consider Murray State, but they haven't been tested against the BIGS, so we can't be sure.

Playing the numbers, these smaller programs have beaten the odds for t00 long, & they are living on borrowed time...

 

[pfister1]

According to the TIP sheet that Mike and Mike were discussing this morning, more than 2 #1 seeds making the final four has happened only twice in the past 23 years.

I would bet that there is a relatively high number of years in which at least two of the number 1s have made it. If true, the percentages are probably pretty reasonable that you will have two of the final four participants correct if you pick all four #1s to advance. If you try to pick the two accurately and then also accurately pick the other two participants from the rest of the field I bet your likelihood of being right goes down quickly. On the other hand a year like last year blows up everything anyone knows about picking brackets.

 

[Hoov50]

I remember some years back when Mississippi State won the SEC Tournament upsetting Kentucky I believe and earned a #5 seed. They were also the "rage" and I fell into the trap an picked them to go far. They lost in the first round, hence the possibly delusional reason I am picking Harvard.

 

[kirbivore]

I don't understand how they can rank the Big 10 as the best conference. The Big 12 has 3 very dangerous teams...

3 very dangerous teams with a big dropoff to the next tier of ISU, KSU, Texas, than a real big gap to the pure dreck of that league (OU, OSU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech). Top heavy league.

 

[mantonio]

3 very dangerous teams with a big dropoff to the next tier of ISU, KSU, Texas, than a real big gap to the pure dreck of that league (OU, OSU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech). Top heavy league.

This is true, but I think the Big 10 is top heavy also. the difference is, the Big 10 Top teams aren't as good as the 3 top Big 12'ers, in my opinion...

 

[SBU72]

I would bet that there is a relatively high number of years in which at least two of the number 1s have made it. If true, the percentages are probably pretty reasonable that you will have two of the final four participants correct if you pick all four #1s to advance. If you try to pick the two accurately and then also accurately pick the other two participants from the rest of the field I bet your likelihood of being right goes down quickly. On the other hand a year like last year blows up everything anyone knows about picking brackets.

This site lists the FF history. Here is the breakdown of #1 seeds over the past 31 years:

0 1​

1 10​

2 16​

3 2​

4 1​

So two #1 seeds make it 51% of the time but you only have a 50-50 chance of those 2. And there is a 31% chace that less than 2 make it.

http://www.fanbay.net/ncaa/final4.htm