If UCONN doesn't get an ACC invite in the next calender year Paul's stay won't be long if he isn't giving them results. They can't afford to have the "perception"/"image" that they aren't a legit football school on the rise. Not in this climate. Unlike Syracuse and Pitt they have no tradition to fall back on or to point too. They are a very young program and a step back in football could/would be a death-nail for them trying to find a new home and keeping their football program at a level they want it to be at.
If Calhoun retires, the b'ball program is hit with sanctions, and the football program is a mess that's a triple whammy that will have the ACC looking elsewhere. The B'ball stuff is out of their control at this point. The football end isn't and making a move away from Paul if he isn't winning wouldn't shock me.
I think Paul gets 2 years and if he is struggling he will be shown the door.