Uconn game opens 9.5

[Scotch]

I'd point out lines are just what it takes to even out the bets, they're not some magic predictor of an outcome.

I've long been suspicious that since NYers can't easily bet on NY teams, and the lion's share of Syracuse fans are in NY, there's unnatural pressure on the line. I'm just not sure what direction that pressure is in on any given game or else I'd find a way to capitalize on it lol.

Most line movement is driven by sharp groups that see an inefficiency, especially for a game like this that has zero national juice or public betting volume. I worry that the sharps saw a ton of value at 8.5 and expect a closer game. All of this doesn’t matter as long as we win

 

[JustPherU]

Down to 6.5. This is so good for us.

Its great for us 6 point teaser lovers.I can now get my Orange where they just have to win.

 

[BuffOrange]

Most line movement is driven by sharp groups that see an inefficiency, especially for a game like this that has zero national juice or public betting volume. I worry that the sharps saw a ton of value at 8.5 and expect a closer game. All of this doesn’t matter as long as we win

No way man. It's all driven by Joe Schmo's and their $20 bets. That's why it's so easy to print $ tailing SVPs "fade the public" system.
These lectures on how lines work...every time.

 

[upperdeck]

Unless you looking at the bets vs the dollars you don't really know what is moving any of these lines. This is probably a low volume bet anyway so it doesn't take much to move it.

 

[CuseCactus]

I just threw a little $$ on a parley -
Cuse -6.5
UNC -10
Houston and Ole Miss - ML

Make sure you bet the direct opposite! You’ll make money.

 

[Pdpay]

It’s a syndicate/sharp group that drove the Syracuse line down. Has nothing to do with New Yorkers not being able to bet on Syracuse teams. There’s just as may Uconn fans in Connecticut who can’t bet on UConn due to their state rules. What the syndicate will often due is buy back their money on the other side of the bet at a larger amount because they anticipate the line moving in their favor. Sharps and syndicates look for value and consistently bet on games as early as the initial lines are out, unlike the general public which will more than likely wait until the last minute to put in their bets. Sharps focus on closing line value. They have no interest in fandom, only about making money.

 

[orangefog]

It’s a syndicate/sharp group that drove the Syracuse line down. Has nothing to do with New Yorkers not being able to bet on Syracuse teams. There’s just as may Uconn fans in Connecticut who can’t bet on UConn due to their state rules. What the syndicate will often due is buy back their money on the other side of the bet at a larger amount because they anticipate the line moving in their favor. Sharps and syndicates look for value and consistently bet on games as early as the initial lines are out, unlike the general public which will more than likely wait until the last minute to put in their bets. Sharps focus on closing line value. They have no interest in fandom, only about making money.

 

[Scotch]

It’s a syndicate/sharp group that drove the Syracuse line down. Has nothing to do with New Yorkers not being able to bet on Syracuse teams. There’s just as may Uconn fans in Connecticut who can’t bet on UConn due to their state rules. What the syndicate will often due is buy back their money on the other side of the bet at a larger amount because they anticipate the line moving in their favor. Sharps and syndicates look for value and consistently bet on games as early as the initial lines are out, unlike the general public which will more than likely wait until the last minute to put in their bets. Sharps focus on closing line value. They have no interest in fandom, only about making money.

Exactly.

 

[JimBoston]

Their Dline struggled against Central Connecticut despite the score. Zero sacks and almost no pressure. It's essentially the biggest worry on their board. Doesn't mean they won't have some success and our throw some wrinkles at us but it seems unlikely there gonna be able to get as much pressure as Tenn was.

According to PFF stats, Tennessee had 17 pressures, 5 sacks, 4 hits, 8 hurries and 3 batted balls in 40 pass attempts. UConn had 6 pressures, 1 sack, 2 hits, 3 hurries and 1 batted ball in 23 pass attempts.

I'm just saying that watching a team against an FCS opponent when the game was never in doubt and expecting the team to do the same things against a good FBS opponent the next week is kind of foolish. Why would they show all of their blitz packages against an overmatched FCS opponent? Clearly, both Tennessee and Syracuse had to go all out to win their game and what we saw against Tennessee is going to be close to what we see Syracuse do against UConn.

 

[JeremyCuse]

According to PFF stats, Tennessee had 17 pressures, 5 sacks, 4 hits, 8 hurries and 3 batted balls in 40 pass attempts. UConn had 6 pressures, 1 sack, 2 hits, 3 hurries and 1 batted ball in 23 pass attempts.

I'm just saying that watching a team against an FCS opponent when the game was never in doubt and expecting the team to do the same things against a good FBS opponent the next week is kind of foolish. Why would they show all of their blitz packages against an overmatched FCS opponent? Clearly, both Tennessee and Syracuse had to go all out to win their game and what we saw against Tennessee is going to be close to what we see Syracuse do against UConn.

Your right to a point but a 1A team that wins by 45 or whatever it was should be able to get a pash rush via their front four against a 1AA team who's throwing the ball the entire 2nd half. Again this is like if SU didn't get a single sack against Colgate in a couple of weeks, it's a real bad sign. I am not saying there D-line is garbage but again their own board is noting it was a major issue and struggled to generate any penetration or pass rush against Central Connecticut.

 

[baggerbob]

Your right to a point but a 1A team that wins by 45 or whatever it was should be able to get a pash rush via their front four against a 1AA team who's throwing the ball the entire 2nd half. Again this is like if SU didn't get a single sack against Colgate in a couple of weeks, it's a real bad sign. I am not saying there D-line is garbage but again their own board is noting it was a major issue and struggled to generate any penetration or pass rush against Central Connecticut.

And if they couldn't get a pass rush, what are they going to do with Willis?

 

[JeremyCuse]

And if they couldn't get a pass rush, what are they going to do with Willis?

This is where I Think SU could have a big advantage. Now UConn is probably thinking similar with there gun game but SU was able to run on Tenn's Dline and LB's that's a really good sign.