UNC opens -6 over Syracuse...

[pearl31]

Never doubt KenPom!!!

 

[CorduroyG]

werent we 11 point underdogs at miami? boeheim's return has gotta be influencing that line, not just from a coaching influence but from an emotional standpoint as well.

 

[Orangello]

I don't like that line at all.....

 

[realorange]

Meeks is coming back tom, defending Johnson and Meeks down low is going to be a nightmare.

Paige is the one you need to shut down or at least slow down. He's the driver of this bus.

 

[reedny]

just seems so low

Way too low. signed, my brain.
Perfect. signed, my loyalty.

 

[jncuse]

werent we 11 point underdogs at miami? boeheim's return has gotta be influencing that line, not just from a coaching influence but from an emotional standpoint as well.

Nope. The difference between playing a home and away against the same team (or similar team) is 7 points. Miami and UNC also have similar efficiency figures (basically tied in KP)-- Vegas used a model that is very close to KP to set opening odds.

Against equal teams --- 11 point dog on the road is same as a 4 point dog at home.

 

[jncuse]

Never doubt KenPom!!!

I susoect Vegas is now using a similar efficiency model to set the baselines for opening odds) rather than really considering the matchup -- they more often than not start within a point of what KP says, and when they veer off a few points like this game, there is good reason for it (the inside mismatch). But games rarely veer 3 points off.

As an aside, and I am only a casual better, it would seem to be stupid to bet using variances in lines from the KP model now, since that is essentially the baseline. When there is a gap from the KP model it signals some strong matchup observation and is the opposite of a numerical advantage.

 

[Madbiker]

Looks like the easiest cover of the year. Does half the UNC team have the flu or something?

 

[jncuse]

I wonder what the board's record is when there is general consensus about a near slam dunk.

 

[721Comstock]

Never doubt KenPom!!!

KenPom apparently knows that JB pwns Ol' Roy, and will do so yet again.

 

[kirbivore]

As a rule I don't ever bet on SU games, but anyone who does hammer the Heels.

 

[690West]

line has only moved up half a point to -6.5.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

I susoect Vegas is now using a similar efficiency model to set the baselines for opening odds) rather than really considering the matchup -- they more often than not start within a point of what KP says, and when they veer off a few points like this game, there is good reason for it (the inside mismatch). But games rarely veer 3 points off.

As an aside, and I am only a casual better, it would seem to be stupid to bet using variances in lines from the KP model now, since that is essentially the baseline. When there is a gap from the KP model it signals some strong matchup observation and is the opposite of a numerical advantage.

In the past, can't speak to this year or last, if there was a less than 4 point gap between the KenPom prediction and the line, there was no significant difference in how a team performed ATS. However, when there was a gap of more than 4 points in a teams direction they covered at around 60% (more points didn't increase this).

 

[jncuse]

In the past, can't speak to this year or last, if there was a less than 4 point gap between the KenPom prediction and the line, there was no significant difference in how a team performed ATS. However, when there was a gap of more than 4 points in a teams direction they covered at around 60% (more points didn't increase this).

I would suspect it's more of a thing of the past -- even compared to 4 years ago, you can hardly find any large gaps anymore which means the models have to be fairly replicative.

 

[Roll Cuse]

Cuse haven't covered a spread since December 22nd against Montana st so...

Pretty sure they've only covered 4-5 games all year 2 of which were the upsets in the Bahamas then Montana st Colgate and Cornell. Perhaps bonnaventure also.

 

[Roll Cuse]

line has only moved up half a point to -6.5.

7.5 and counting. Got my Money Line bet in soon as the spread came out and it was only -290 knowing it was going to grow.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Everybody here has forgotten how to be fans. We are winning this game people.

Being a fan and being a gambler are two different things.

 

[jncuse]

Being a fan and being a gambler are two different things.

I cashed out midway in the half with a 15% loss (which could be quite a bit better than $0). It feels a whole lot better.

Go Orange.

 

[skurey]

Was quite the sweat there!

 

[kirbivore]

As a rule I don't ever bet on SU games, but anyone who does hammer the Heels.

hopefully my degenerate gambling friends took my advice

 

[690West]

hopefully my degenerate gambling friends took my advice

Hahaha. Great call with "hammer" the heels. Coin flip with 2 minutes to go. You're a sage!!

 

[two3zone]

hopefully my degenerate gambling friends took my advice

I put a nice amount of Pitt today. This week has actually been solid, 9 wins 2 losses. Have to keep my wins quiet, the girlfriend will want some fancy dinner or something.

 

[kirbivore]

Hahaha. Great call with "hammer" the heels. Coin flip with 2 minutes to go. You're a sage!!

if it's a lock after 10 minutes or the favorite makes you sweat it's all the same when you cash in at the window.