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Up three with about 17 seconds left - do you foul?
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[QUOTE="Brooky03, post: 2891916"] Even in HS I think 17 seconds is too much. Calling it beforehand doesn't really change the probability of it working. Both options might not have worked for all we know. My assumption is that the odds aren't more in a leading team's favor to foul with that much time left vs. playing it out. I could of course be wrong. Assuming you're fouling a guard who is decent, the most likely outcome is that he'll hit both FTs (a decent HS guard is probably a 70% FT shooter or better). Now you're inbounding the ball up 1 with 15-ish seconds left. If he misses the front end, you have a very good chance of winning, but you'd need to foul a bad FT shooter for this to be a reasonably likely result. If he makes 1 misses 1, you're up 2 with 15-ish seconds left. I say, play good defense and don't let them shoot a 3. If they make a 2, you're inbounding up 1 with less time on the clock; maybe 10 or 12 seconds or less. If they hit a 3, you have a chance to hit a game winner. If they miss, you just won. [/QUOTE]
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Up three with about 17 seconds left - do you foul?
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