Updated ESPN Bracketology

[Fly Rodder]

What does SU have to do to secure a #1 seed? Win out (including the BET tournament)?

As good as Miami has played, I can't see how a weak ACC field can produce two #1 seeds.

 

[Knicks411]

What does SU have to do to secure a #1 seed? Win out (including the BET tournament)?

As good as Miami has played, I can't see how a weak ACC field can produce two #1 seeds.

If SU runs the table i think they are for sure a 1.

The committee always says its teams, not conferences, that get in the tournament. The Kelly factor is going to be big for Duke. I think they need to get him back, or go on a big run without him, to get a 1.

 

[Marsh01]

What does SU have to do to secure a #1 seed? Win out (including the BET tournament)?

As good as Miami has played, I can't see how a weak ACC field can produce two #1 seeds.

IMO there are only 9 teams that have a shot at a 1 seed. They are

Indiana
Michigan
Duke
Miami
Syracuse
Michigan St
Gonzaga
Arizona
Florida

Kansas is messed. You cant lose to a team like TCU and be in the running for a 1 seed.

Here are the teams in the best position (In no order)

Indiana
Miami/Duke
Florida
Syracuse
Michigan St

Gonzaga wont get one unless a perfect storm happens. Plus they are losing to St. Marys tomorrow night so they will be out. Michigan is slipping and I think they will lose another game or two before its all said and done. Arizona is too up and down and the Pac12 stinks and they will get picked off.

We have a great opportunity if we can win the BE regular season with a record NO WORSE than 14- 4 plus make a run to the finals of the BET. If we win the BE regular season and the BET (regardless of what our record in conference is) we are a #1 seed.

 

[jncuse]

What does SU have to do to secure a #1 seed? Win out (including the BET tournament)?

As good as Miami has played, I can't see how a weak ACC field can produce two #1 seeds.

There are so many contenders for the number one spot, and most of them are vulnerable in moderately tough road games... you can't make that call right now. We can absorb losses and still get a #1 seed.

Win out is 100% (if everybody else won out perhaps they would be #5... but its impossible for Duke/Miami and Indiana/Michigan to all win out)... one more loss is still highly likely - It's a guess, but with the way things are this year its easily at 90%+... even with 2 more losses our odds may still be good (but your depending on others).

 

[orangefog]

IMO there are only 9 teams that have a shot at a 1 seed. They are

Indiana
Michigan
Duke
Miami
Syracuse
Michigan St
Gonzaga
Arizona
Florida

Kansas is messed. You cant lose to a team like TCU and be in the running for a 1 seed.

Here are the teams in the best position (In no order)

Indiana
Miami/Duke
Florida
Syracuse
Michigan St

Gonzaga wont get one unless a perfect storm happens. Plus they are losing to St. Marys tomorrow night so they will be out. Michigan is slipping and I think they will lose another game or two before its all said and done. Arizona is too up and down and the Pac12 stinks and they will get picked off.

We have a great opportunity if we can win the BE regular season with a record NO WORSE than 14- 4 plus make a run to the finals of the BET. If we win the BE regular season and the BET (regardless of what our record in conference is) we are a #1 seed.

Sounds spot on. Agree with all. The only question is, who in the PAC-12 is likely to knock off Arizona?

 

[cto]

Has us 2 seed in East. . If things hold true, will play Vermont, Colorado St, Michigan State, Duke.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I would love that draw. I'd much rather be #2 in the East than #1 anywhere else.

1) The team knows those two arenas.

2) Less travel for them.

3) Much better for SU fan base --- and much easier to get a large SU fan turnout at the games.

 

[Ward]

I would love that draw. I'd much rather be #2 in the East than #1 anywhere else.

1) The team knows those two arenas.

2) Less travel for them.

3) Much better for SU fan base --- and much easier to get a large SU fan turnout at the games.

LOVE our chances to get to the Final Four if we can manage to get to the East region.

 

[SU2NASA]

I would stand between Fab Melo and a hotel room door for that bracket.

I'd cheat off Fab Melo on a Portuguese exam for that bracket.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Certainly I like the #2 in the east, but I'm curious what would have to happen to get SU on the #1 in the east since Duke has been camped there basically all season and Miami is seemingly the better team than Duke (sans Kelly).

 

[jncuse]

IMO there are only 9 teams that have a shot at a 1 seed. They are

Indiana
Michigan
Duke
Miami
Syracuse
Michigan St
Gonzaga
Arizona
Florida

Kansas is messed. You cant lose to a team like TCU and be in the running for a 1 seed.

Here are the teams in the best position (In no order)

Indiana
Miami/Duke
Florida
Syracuse
Michigan St

Gonzaga wont get one unless a perfect storm happens. Plus they are losing to St. Marys tomorrow night so they will be out. Michigan is slipping and I think they will lose another game or two before its all said and done. Arizona is too up and down and the Pac12 stinks and they will get picked off.

We have a great opportunity if we can win the BE regular season with a record NO WORSE than 14- 4 plus make a run to the finals of the BET. If we win the BE regular season and the BET (regardless of what our record in conference is) we are a #1 seed.

You are only identifying teams that are close to the #1 debate right now. They are the likely players no doubt,

But:
1) Your excluding teams that if they win out are in excellent shape to get a #1 seed.
2) You have to remember that the margin from the 3/4 line to the top line is smaller than normal.
3) The way this year has been you have to expect most of the group will still have a few more losses. So a team winning out would move up the ladder quite a bit.

If any of the following win out they are almost 100% to get a one seed. There ability to win out is certainly quite low -- but if these teams win the next 5 or 6 games, they start to get into the converstion.

Louisville, 29-5, top 5 RPI, BET Champions, 10-3 vs top 50
Kansas at 29-4, and 11-2 vs top 50, would likely get a #1
Gonzaga would stay in the picture.


Even New Mexico still has a slight shot if they went undefeated -- would be interesting to see how the committee judges the conferecne with the #1 RPI right now. 29-4, 8-2 vs top 50, top 5 RPI, regular and post season champion of arguably one of the top conferences. I doubt they would, but discussion would exist.

End of the day we are worried about Syracuse -- play well and we have an excellent shot.

 

[Knicks411]

Certainly I like the #2 in the east, but I'm curious what would have to happen to get SU on the #1 in the east since Duke has been camped there basically all season and Miami is seemingly the better team than Duke (sans Kelly).

There's a regional in Atlanta; Miami would probably be placed there. Basically if we passed Duke I think we'd be ok. Then again, someone is going to have to be sent out west to LA.

 

[jncuse]

There's a regional in Atlanta; Miami would probably be placed there. Basically if we passed Duke I think we'd be ok. Then again, someone is going to have to be sent out west to LA.

Final four is in Atlanta. Maybe you are thinking Arlington?

 

[Marsh01]

Sounds spot on. Agree with all. The only question is, who in the PAC-12 is likely to knock off Arizona?

They still have games @ colorado (who had them beat at Arizona) and UCLA.

 

[Marsh01]

You are only identifying teams that are close to the #1 debate right now. They are the likely players no doubt,

But:
1) Your excluding teams that if they win out are in excellent shape to get a #1 seed.
2) You have to remember that the margin from the 3/4 line to the top line is smaller than normal.
3) The way this year has been you have to expect most of the group will still have a few more losses. So a team winning out would move up the ladder quite a bit.

If any of the following win out they are almost 100% to get a one seed. There ability to win out is certainly quite low -- but if these teams win the next 5 or 6 games, they start to get into the converstion.

Louisville, 29-5, top 5 RPI, BET Champions, 10-3 vs top 50
Kansas at 29-4, and 11-2 vs top 50, would likely get a #1
Gonzaga would stay in the picture.


Even New Mexico still has a slight shot if they went undefeated -- would be interesting to see how the committee judges the conferecne with the #1 RPI right now. 29-4, 8-2 vs top 50, top 5 RPI, regular and post season champion of arguably one of the top conferences. I doubt they would, but discussion would exist.

End of the day we are worried about Syracuse -- play well and we have an excellent shot.

Kansas lost to one of the worst teams in division one history. That alone will not get them a 1 seed. I associate it wit hour DePaul loss by 39. It was one game but it stood out to everyone and would have cost us a bid had we not won the BET that year.

New Mexico has zero shot at a #1 seed even if they win out. Aint happening.

 

[jncuse]

Certainly I like the #2 in the east, but I'm curious what would have to happen to get SU on the #1 in the east since Duke has been camped there basically all season and Miami is seemingly the better team than Duke (sans Kelly).

All the teams are likely to at least one more game -- so really its too early to worry about that -- just keep winning (keep your losses rest of year to one or less), and you will likely be in good shape. If Syracuse went undefeated, the conversation is not about #1 in the east, its about the #1 seed overall.

 

[Knicks411]

Final four is in Atlanta. Maybe you are thinking Arlington?

Haha yeah, sorry. I was looking at a map on Wiki and I didn't realize it was showing the FInal four site with the regionals, and i obviously forgot where the FF is. Carry on, I'm an idiot.

 

[jncuse]

Kansas lost to one of the worst teams in division one history. That alone will not get them a 1 seed. I associate it wit hour DePaul loss by 39. It was one game but it stood out to everyone and would have cost us a bid had we not won the BET that year.

New Mexico has zero shot at a #1 seed even if they win out. Aint happening.

I disagree on Kansas. There is no basis for your assertion on how the committee would act. Of course no one ever loss to a team that bad either, so we have no history, but I doubt it would be a 100% kill if all the other metrics are better than others.

The loss will certainly not be ignored if two teams have close resumes -- but if Kansas went undefeated, the 11-2 vs top 50 would be much better than the competition. And that really is the key metric (but not only one) for number one seeds historically.

Kansas should lose a few more times anyway.

As for New Mexico, I raised them as a real outside shot -- not at 0%, but less than 10% -- they would need a lot of beating down on other conferences.

 

[MGP]

Kansas lost to one of the worst teams in division one history. That alone will not get them a 1 seed. I associate it wit hour DePaul loss by 39. It was one game but it stood out to everyone and would have cost us a bid had we not won the BET that year.

New Mexico has zero shot at a #1 seed even if they win out. Aint happening.

Can't compare it to the DePaul debacle. We weren't ranked 5th in the country when we lost to them.

 

[Marsh01]

Can't compare it to the DePaul debacle. We weren't ranked 5th in the country when we lost to them.

Very true. My point is that it is going to be like the elephant in the room everytime someone brings up Kansas. It will keep them from getting to the top line.

 

[jekelish]

Hey guys, there seems to be a mistake with this Bracketology. They appear to have accidentally left out UConn.

Anyone know why? Marsh, any ideas as to why UConn wasn't included?

 

[Marsh01]

Hey guys, there seems to be a mistake with this Bracketology. They appear to have accidentally left out UConn.

Anyone know why? Marsh, any ideas as to why UConn wasn't included?

I made a phone call to Lunardi and asked him becuse I was wondering the same thing. He just left me a message that said .

 

[jncuse]

Utah lost to a D2 school (not exhibition) a few years back and still received a 5 seed (which was a strethc in and of itself) -- its almost as if the committee didn't recognize it, since D2 games don't go against RPI.