Updated NCAA Seed Stats | Syracusefan.com

Updated NCAA Seed Stats

SWC75

Bored Historian
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
32,278
Like
62,396
Well, folks, the time has come to fill out your NCAA bracket sheets, If you are like me, you have come to realize that there is no relationship to the amount of time you spend on your sheet and the quality of the results. One year, a friend of mine at work put a sheet on the floor and placed his baby on it. Wherever the kid drooled, that was the pick. I spent three days reading all I could about all the teams before doing my sheet. The kid and I were neck and neck until I passed him in the final four. Now he’s probably all grown up and is as dumb as I am. Another year, I was delighted to go 14-2 the first night. I came to work and found some secretary had gone 16-0. The next day, I went 15-1. I backslid on Saturday at 5-3 but had a 7-1 Sunday for an incredible record of 41-7 after the first weekend, with only 15 games to go. You see ads in the sports magazines for guys bragging about their 70% prediction rate. I was at .854. How could anyone match that? The secretary was at 44-4, (.917). I asked her for her secret. She said she didn't know anything about basketball. She just picked schools based on who she knew who went there, which schools wore her favorite color, etc. Any illusion that I or anyone else knew anything about college basketball disappeared completely.

But it can be liberating to lose your illusions. I was born in the same hospital as Tom Cruise and grew up a couple miles from where he spent the first two years of his life but that's not him in the mirror, so why worry about it? The real challenge is to get a sheet done before the tournament begins. For that you need some kind of a system. Not a fool proof system. Not something that would make you the King of Vegas. Just a system that allows you to get a sheet together on time and still have a life. One way is to look at the percentages.

The NCAA tournament field went to 64 teams in 1985, (the year Villanova won). Since then these are the records of the seeds in the first rounds:

(updated through 2021 Note: a 7-10 game between Oregon and Virginia Commonwealth was canceled due to “multiple positive Covid tests” on the VCU roster and 7 seeded Oregon was advanced. I’m treating that as a win for the 7th seed. )

1 vs 16 143-1 99.3% Last year #1’s were 4-0 by a combined +112 points. The closest was 16 points.

2 vs 15 135-9 93.8% Last year #2’s were 3-1 by a combined +53 points The loss was by 3 points in OT.
.
3 vs 14 122-22 84.7% Last year #3’s were 3-1 by a combined +34 points. The loss was by 1 point.

4 vs 13 112-32 77.7% Last year #4s were 2-2 by a combined +6 points. The loss were by 4 and 9 points.

5 vs 12 93-51 64.6% Last year #5’s were 3-1 by a combined +20 points. The loss was by 14 points.

6 vs 11 90-54 62.5% Last year #6’s were 2-2 by a combined -4 points. The losses was by 11 and 16 points.

7 vs 10 87-57 60.4% Last year #7’s were 2-2 by a combined -8 points. The losses were by 9 and 4 points.

8 vs 9 72-72 50.0% Last year the #8’s were 3-1 by a combined +7 points. The losses was by 23 points.

2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament
If you divide the latter, (upset), number by 36, you should pick one 14, one 13, one 12 and one or two 11 seeds, (54/36 = 1.5 – I’ll round it down until it creeps over that), to win and two 10s and 9s. That's 8-9 upsets in the first round. The average over the years is 8. Last year there were 10. You can't always go with the averages, however. In 2016 there were 13 upsets, tied for the highest ever with 2001. The previous year, 2000, there was the lowest ever, only 3. The year we won the title, (2003) there were 8 first round upsets, exactly the historical average. The next year there were half that many. Overall, the seedings hold up pretty well. In 36 years, there have been between 7 and 9 upsets 19 times. Don’t just go “chalk” but don’t drive off the road, either.

If you score well in the first round, you will usually contend the rest of the way because you will have the most teams still alive. Then the question becomes: Who's most likely to make the Final Four? According to the seeds, there have been:

58 #1 seeds, (including all four in 2008, the only time it’s happened)

31 #2 seeds

17 #3 seeds

13 #4 seeds

7 #5 seeds

3 #6 seeds

3 #7 seeds

5 #8 seeds

1 #9 seed

1 #10 seeds (Dat’s us!)

5 #11 seeds

0 #12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 seeds.

The chances of a team seeded less than #4 making the final four, (based on a percentage of who made it) are 17%, (only 25 of 144). SU’s Final Four teams were seeded #2, (1987), #4, (1996), #3, (2003), #4, (2013) and #10 (2016). There were no seedings in 1975 but we wouldn’t have been seeded very high. Each regional was 8 teams and we probably would have been 6th or 7th.


The national champions have included:

23 #1 seeds

5 #2 seeds

4 #3 seeds

1 #4 seed (Arizona in ’97)

0 #5 seeds

1 #6 seed (Kansas '88)

1 #7 seeds (Connecticut ’14)

1 #8 seed (Villanova '85)

0 below that. (I don't think the play-in games are a real big deal).

There had never been a Final Four with all #1 seeds until 2008: Somebody is likely going down. But, if you are picking less than a #3 seed to go all the way, you are going out on a limb. But you might just be right- about once a decade, Still, if you want to play it safe, chose a #1 seed.

First Round Upsets

How often do they lead to second round victories? Last year the 10 first round cinderellas won another 7 games before going down. The previous year just 1 of the 12 teams that pulled off first round upsets won in the second round.

In the 36 tournaments since the field reached 64 teams, there have been the following number of first round upsets, with the following results in later rounds:

16 seeds have now won 1 game, by 20 no less and lost by 7 in the next round to a 9 seed.

15 seeds have won 9 times. All lost by double figures in the next round except Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, who won in the round of 32 and lost by double figures in the Sweet 16 and Oral Roberts who lost by 2 to Arkansas in the Sweet 16.

14 seeds have won 22 first round games and 2 second round games and none in the Sweet 16.

13 seeds have won 32 first round games, 6 second round games and none in the Sweet 16.

12 seeds have won 51 first round games and 23 second round games. They have won 3 Sweet 16 games, (Oregon State did it last year in that great Pac 10 run).

11 seeds have won 54 first round games and 25 second round games. They have won 8 Sweet 16 games. They made it to the final four 5 times. (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006, VCU in 2011, Loyola in 2018 and UCLA last year.)

10 seeds have won 57 first round games and 21 in the second round. They have won 6 Sweet 16 games. We were the first ever 10 seed in the Final Four.

9 seeds have won 72 first round games. All it has gotten them is 71 dates with #1 seeds. They have won exactly 6 of those, (one vs. a 16 seed) and 4 games in the sweet 16. Wichita State in 2013 became the first #9 seed to win in the Elite 8 and get to the Final Four where they gave Louisville fits before losing 68-72.

People love those first round upsets but 212 of 298 of the teams that pulled them have gone from windshield to bug in the next game. That’s 71%. Then they are 22-62, (26%) in the Sweet 16 They are 7-15 (32%) in regional finals. None made it to the title game.

If you go with percentages, pick 2 nine seeds to upset eight seeds but that's as far as they go. Also pick two 10 seeds to win in the first round. Give one of the winners a trip to the sweet 16 but that’s it. Pick one each of the 11, 12, 13 and 14 seeds to win. They will stop there. In the Final Four you could go with two 1 seeds, a 2 seed and a 3 or 4 seed. Or you might want to pick a lower seed just for fun, But nothing below an 11th seed unless you want to make history. You now have the freedom to pick a 16 seed to win in the first round but keep in mind it took 34 years for that to happen. Do you really want to predict it’s going to happen again now?



Oh, you want to know WHICH upsets will take place? Beats me! That's the problem, and the delight. Some observations that might help- or might not:

- I tend to steer away from "hot" teams to win it all because they will have to maintain their level of play for three weeks against increasingly tough competition. The championship team is usually a team that gets hot in the tournament, not one that was already hot when it started. Sometimes, they are just "survive and advancers", who don't blow anyone away but have bottomed out at the right time and get better as the opposition gets better. (Of course “bottoming out” teams are more vulnerable in the early rounds than the hot teams, so watch out!)

- Don't base decisions on coach's reputations. Bobby Knight won three national titles and went out in the first game 9 times. Lute Olson won a national title and was one and done 10 times. Tom Izzo has been to 7 Final Fours, (he’s good at getting there but less good at winning: only one). But he’s gone out in the first round 4 times. Jim Boeheim is 5 and 6. Jimmy Valvano and Rollie Massimino had one good run a piece and became “legends” for a moment. The players play the game, not the coaches.

- I think match-ups are critical. Not just individual match-ups but team match-ups. We all know what physical teams can do to finesse teams. I like zone teams or teams with great shot-blockers vs. teams with no outside game. I like teams that press or use man-to-man vs. a team with a shaky point guard. I like teams with two good big men over a team with one. Look at guard play first, the front line second. But if guard play is similar, go with the taller team. Upsets are more likely to occur between teams with different styles. When teams mirror each other, pick the higher seeded one – they are doing it with better athletes. A "mid major", (are there "low majors" anymore?), will be more likely to pull off an upset if they've been strong all year than if they got hot in their conference tournament. Actually, you should avoid Cinderella conference tournament winners: they've likely shot their bolt.

- The numbers suggest that the most efficient offensive teams go the farthest and you’ve got to score. But defense still wins championships. Avoid teams that are just trying to out-score their opposition. They might pull off an upset but not they aren’t winning 6 in a row.

- You may hate the "power conferences" but when the Final Four comes, that's where the teams have traditionally come from, although that shows signs of changing with George Mason, VCU, Butler, Wichita State, etc. Last year, (2019) we Had Loyola of Chicago and Villanova, (is the Big East still a ‘power’ conference?). Under-performing but talented teams from power conferences might be a better bet. If you are going to pick a Cinderella, make sure you don’t wind up with an Ugly Step Sister instead.

Beginning in 2018, I took a different tactic. Instead of researching all the teams and applying my dubious theories, I just used to the points accumulated by each team in my “Against Ranked Teams” study, (which I will be updating shortly), to pick the most likely upsets, then the most likely final Four teams and the probable winners there and in the other games in between. It enabled me to rip through the selection process and, even though my predicted national champion went down in the first round, I wound up doing better than I have in years overall. Documented achievements proved more reliable than theories and opinions, so I’ll be using the same method this year. You might want to peruse that or Sagarin or KenPom or somebody else and let them guide you more than your own instincts or guesses.


Or you can just drool. That might work...

Bon appetit.
 
SCOPING IT OUT - 2022

Here is a listing of the NCAA field with each team’s record, their accumulated points against ranked teams and then as a ranked team against unraked teams, (see my “Against Ranked Teams” post). The points against ranked teams is an indicator of a team ability to compete with top competition and the points as a ranked team against unranked teams is a measure of consistency- do they play down to their opponents or stick to their own level no matter the opponent. I’ll use both to inform my picks. I also added the points together for that that may be worth. Note: “none” means they didn’t play or never were a ranked team. “0” would mean that they did or were but that the points came out even.

1 seeds
Gonzaga 26-3 +124 +84 = +208
Baylor 26-6 +122 -102 = +20
Arizona 31-3 +146 -42 = +104
Kansas 28-6 +108 -133 = -25

16 seeds
Georgia State 18-10 none none = none
Norfolk State 24-6 none none = none
Wright State 21-13 -24 none = -24
Bryant 22-9 -56 none = -56
Texas Southern 18-12 +8 none = +8
Texas A&M- Corpus Christi 23-11 none none = none

2 seeds
Duke 28-6 +52 -206 = -154
Kentucky 26-7 +106 +80 = +186
Villanova 26-7 +162 -7 = +155
Auburn 27-5 +51 -93 = -42

15 seeds
CSU Fullerton 21-10 none none = none
St. Peters 19-11 none none = none
Delaware 22-12 none none = none
Jacksonville State 21-10 +14 none = +14

3 seeds
Texas Tech 25-9 +199 +8 = +207
Purdue 27-7 +107 -196 = -89
Tennessee 26-7 +154 +172 = +326
Wisconsin 24-7 +71 -81 = -10

14 seeds
Montana State 27-7 none none = none
Yale 19-11 -17 none = -17
Longwood 26-6 none none = none
Colgate 23-11 none none = none

4 seeds
Arkansas 25-6 +101 -42 = +59
UCLA 25-7 +132 -95 = +37
Illinois 22-9 +94 -62 = +32
Providence 25-5 +65 -66 = -1

13 seeds
Vermont 28-5 -6 none = -6
Akron 24-9 +8 none = +8
Chattanooga 27-7 none none = none
South Dakota State 30-4 -4 + none = -4

5 seeds
Connecticut 23-9 +61 +151 = +212
St. Mary’s 25-7 +55 +21 = +76
Houston 29-5 +16 +94 = +110
Iowa 26-9 +61 +86 = +147

12 seeds
New Mexico State 26-6 none none = none
Wyoming 25-8 -14 +4 = -10
Alabama-Birmingham 27-7 none none = none
Richmond 23-12 none none = none

6 seeds
Alabama 19-13 +135 -51 = +84
Texas 21-11 +108 +68 = +176
Colorado State 25-5 none -41 = -41
Louisiana State 23-12 +52 +1 = +53

11 seeds
Rutgers 18-13 +116 none = +116
Notre Dame 22-10 +23 none = +23
Virginia Tech 23-12 +70 none = +70
Michigan 17-14 +62 -96 = -34
Iowa State 20-12 +43 +5 = +48

7 seeds
Michigan State 22-12 +54 -67 = -13
Murray State 30-2 +1 +58 = +59
Ohio State 19-11 +63 -43 = +20
Southern California 26-7 +31 -43 = -12

10 seeds
Davidson 27-6 +17 +4 = +21
San Francisco 24-9 +33 none = +33
Loyola-Chicago 25-7 -2 +11 = +9
U of Miami 23-10 +25 + none = +25

8 seeds
Boise State 27-7 -2 none = -2
North Carolina 24-9 +35 +17 = +52
Seton Hall 21-10 +38 +53 = +91
San Diego State 23-8 +19 + none = +19

9 seeds
Memphis 21-10 +80 +3 = +83
Marquette 19-12 +110 -10 = +100
Texas Christian 20-12 +134 + none = +134
Creighton 22-11 +108 none = +108

I’ll pick the teams with the better numerical records to win the two 16 seed play-in games, (why aren’t all the play-in games for 16 seeds?). So Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Bryant move on – but not very far.

According to my “NCAA Seed Stats” post, “you should pick one 14, one 13, one 12 and one or two 11 seeds to win and two 10s and 9s”. So that’s my first step.

I don’t like any of the 14s. But 22 of them have won in 36 years. I’d love to see Colgate beat Wisconsin but Purdue’s poor record against unranked teams stands out. I think Colgate is better than Yale so I’ll go with them. Maybe they will have a game like the one they had against us. So I’ll predict Colgate to beat Wisconsin, even though my finger-crossing days are over.

Our old pals at Vermont have become a popular upset pick after winning their three America East conference games by 98-59, 74-42 and 82-43! Could their first round opponent, Arkansas have done any better than that? I’ll go with the Catamounts as my #13 seed upset pick.

I don’t like the 12 seeds much. I’ll go with Indiana over Wyoming in the first four. I decided to double-check my numbers on Connecticut. They opened the season as #24 and played Central Connecticut, Coppin State, Long Island U. and Binghamton and beat those teams by a combined 163 points. They then beat #19 Auburn 115-109 in overtime. That gave them +13 points against ranked teams and +169 against unranked teams. They were 5-0. Since then they are 18-9, +48 against ranked teams and -18 against unranked teams, a total of +30. Commentators like New Mexico State a lot so I’ll pick them to top the Huskies.

Rutgers created a lot of excitement when they beat four straight ranked teams, three of them at home, in early February. They’d been 12-9 going into that stret5ch and lost their next three games when it was over. I’ll pick Notre Dame to beat them in Dayton. I love the 11 seeds but under my system, I can pick only one. That’s got to be Virginia Tech after the show they put on in the ACC tournament.

I need two 10 seeds. Loyola over Ohio State is a no-brainer. Michigan State went 8-8 after a 14- 2 start but I’ll bet Tom Izzo can figure out how to defend high-scoring Davidson. I’ll go with U of Miami over Southern California as my second upset at this level.

I also need two 9 seeds to win. At this level, the games are a virtual toss-up so I’ll go with the match-ups that most favor the 9 teams in my Against Rank Teams numbers and that’s Memphis and Creighton. With that I’ve picked 36 of the 67 games.

Next I decide on who will make it to the Final Four and who will win it. On average we’ll get two #1 seeds, a #2 seed and someone below that. I’ve already decided that my national championship favorite is Tennessee, who has performed well all your. They beat North Carolina and Arizona and haven beaten Auburn and twice beat Kentucky after an early loss to them. They’ve played 12 ranked teams and steam-rolled their unranked opponents. They are a #3 seed. So I need two #1 seeds and a #2 seed. I’d take Gonzaga and Arizona as the #1 seeds and Villanova as the #2 seed – except Arizona and Villanova are in Tennessee’s loaded bracket. I’ll have the Vols beating both Wildcats in the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8. Baylor and Auburn have stumbled down the stretch so I’ll go with Kansas as my other #1 seed and Kentucky as my #2 seed. I’ll have Tennessee beat Gonzaga, (sorry Zags – your third finals defeat in 6 years). That gets me another 18 games predicted, with 13 to go.

One 10 seed should make it to the Sweet 16, per the historical numbers. That would have to be Miami beating Auburn. The other first round upseters should all go down. Bye Bye Colgate, But I’ve got Vermont and New Mexico State playing each other. I’ll go with Vermont based on that roll they are on. Then they lose to the Zags.

The rest are just judgement calls. The historical record doesn’t help me here. I’ll take Texas Tech over Alabama, (why are people crazy from Nate Oats?), Duke over Michigan State, although I don’t like what I see of the Blue Devils lately, I’ll take Tech over them in the Sweet 16. Then they lose to the Zags. Baylor’s got enough left to beat the Tar Heels and to make it to the Elite 8, where Kentucky will beat them. I can’t see St. Mary’s beating UCLA but I can see Virginia Tech beating Purdue. I think Houston is better than Illinois, (I’m still mad that the Illni went down so early last year, when I had them winning it all). Iowa-Providence is interesting but the Hawkeyes are playing very well right now and I’ll go with them. The last one I have to pick is Miami over LSU. Done.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
167,144
Messages
4,682,952
Members
5,901
Latest member
CarlsbergMD

Online statistics

Members online
159
Guests online
1,166
Total visitors
1,325


Top Bottom