Virginia opens as an 11 point favorite

[cliftonparksufan]

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

 

[TinyManInside]

They'll probably cover. I'll bet we play them tough for about 36 minutes, maybe a +/- 4 point game with 4 minutes left, then they'll close out on a 15-2 run or something like that when our players are totally gassed.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

They'll probably cover. I'll bet we play them tough for about 36 minutes, maybe a +/- 4 point game with 4 minutes left, then they'll close out on a 15-2 run or something like that when our players are totally gassed.

We are playing at the #3 ranked team in the country and it's a two possession game with four minutes to go. I think we all sign up for that right now. I would love to see how Boeheim would coach that scenario vs Bennett. We know we have had recent success vs them the last couple years and I'm not sure we would be gassed as Virginia typically is not a run up and down the court type of team. Plus JAB is going to milk the clock for all it's worth to keep it a very low scoring game. I hope you are right about the first 36 minutes.

 

[Toga]

39-28

 

[orangecuse]

Wow. All's I can think about is this tune...

 

[jncuse]

Virignia beat Wisconsin 49-37 earlier in the year. I expect about the same.

But I can also a game where have to claw to get to 3o in the final two minutes. Heck Virginia may have to claw to get to 40.

#1. In terms of tempo out of 351
Syracuse #345
Virginia #351

#2. Not only is Virginia the slowest team in the country, they allow the least number of points per possession at 84.4 pts / 100 possessions (adjusted for schedule). 84.4 / 100, is the best KP defensive efficiency ranking by any team since the 2009 Memphis squad.

That being said our defensive efficiency is a very solid 92.2 / 100. That makes us the 11th best defence in the country.

Take 2 of the slowest teams in the country, including the slowest, and 2 of the best defences in the country, including the best, and maybe 49-37 was being generous too both teams.

 

[Rage4CUSE]

We lose 64-45. Spread should be higher.

 

[HoustonCuse]

We lose 64-45. Spread should be higher.

At the pace this will be played at 11 points is a blow out. 19 points would be a woodshed beat down. I think our team is better than they've played in the last two. Can we win at UVA? Probably not, but we will definitely win at least one game this year that most think is impossible. Just like we absolutely should be 3-0 right now in conference, we will pick up completely unexpected wins here and there too.

 

[DonLightfoot]

39-28

Oh man, that is brutal However, may not be too far off.

 

[Trueblue25]

Free money, cuse by 5

 

[dan7800]

I'd take Virginia here

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Sports Betting News and Vegas Odds

Down to 9 pts now.

 

[jdubs30]

Virignia beat Wisconsin 49-37 earlier in the year. I expect about the same.

But I can also a game where have to claw to get to 3o in the final two minutes. Heck Virginia may have to claw to get to 40.

#1. In terms of tempo out of 351
Syracuse #345
Virginia #351

#2. Not only is Virginia the slowest team in the country, they allow the least number of points per possession at 84.4 pts / 100 possessions (adjusted for schedule). 84.4 / 100, is the best KP defensive efficiency ranking by any team since the 2009 Memphis squad.

That being said our defensive efficiency is a very solid 92.2 / 100. That makes us the 11th best defence in the country.

Take 2 of the slowest teams in the country, including the slowest, and 2 of the best defences in the country, including the best, and maybe 49-37 was being generous too both teams.

Exactly.

If you look at this spread on a points per possession basis - and compare it to a spread of say, UVA vs. NC State on a points per possession basis - and adjust it to a normal spread, it would be almost equal. Even though, NC State would be probably 14pt dogs in this scenario.

It's important to look at the correlation to the over/under. If I'm looking the Colts at +11 vs. the Ravens, but the total is only 39, that is a huge red flag to me. The lower the total, the more valuable the points become.

I don't know if the over/under for our game has been released yet, but I'd assume it would probably be around 118, which is low for a CBB game (I'd say 126 is about average; you'll see many Duke and Oklahoma games in the mid 150s or low 160s) - making the 11pts we're getting even more valuable. If Vegas thought our total of our game would be 130, I bet the spread goes up to 14 - similar to the NC State example.

 

[Testa.Cuse]

Strong effort and very close game. What's the m/l out of sheer curiosity?

 

[Arangeman]

Total is 114

 

[Brooky03]

Didn't JB have a light bulb go on last season or the season before against Virginia that made him realize the high ball screen against their defense just makes things worse? I distinctly remember a game against them where we stopped running that at some point in the second half and it got the offense going a little bit. Maybe he'll have that epiphany again and we'll actually be decent.

What's the money line on this game? Asking for a friend.

 

[Newhouser]

At the pace this will be played at 11 points is a blow out. 19 points would be a woodshed beat down. I think our team is better than they've played in the last two. Can we win at UVA? Probably not, but we will definitely win at least one game this year that most think is impossible. Just like we absolutely should be 3-0 right now in conference, we will pick up completely unexpected wins here and there too.

Yeah for UVA to win by 11 at the pace this game will be played at seems like it would be difficult. That said I don't see how we score more than 40.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Might be the worst game in college basketball history next to the UConn butler championship.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Didn't JB have a light bulb go on last season or the season before against Virginia that made him realize the high ball screen against their defense just makes things worse? I distinctly remember a game against them where we stopped running that at some point in the second half and it got the offense going a little bit. Maybe he'll have that epiphany again and we'll actually be decent.

What's the money line on this game? Asking for a friend.

That happened both in the tournament and last year.

 

[AlaskaSU]

At the pace this will be played at 11 points is a blow out. 19 points would be a woodshed beat down. I think our team is better than they've played in the last two. Can we win at UVA? Probably not, but we will definitely win at least one game this year that most think is impossible. Just like we absolutely should be 3-0 right now in conference, we will pick up completely unexpected wins here and there too.

Excepting pitt, any win will be unexpected.

 

[Jasoncuse]

They'll probably cover. I'll bet we play them tough for about 36 minutes, maybe a +/- 4 point game with 4 minutes left, then they'll close out on a 15-2 run or something like that when our players are totally gassed.

I'd be surprised if it's a 2pt game at the final TV TO.

I expect the UVA lead to gradually expand and end up around 18-22. Maybe a 6-8 pt game at halftime, but we'll get tired and they'll pull away. I just don't think we can score enough even though I don't expect them to put up a big number.

If we keep it close, it's because our defense plays great, we board and actually drain some shots.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Expecting Guy and Jerome to have 10 threes combined and Salt to have 20 rebounds.

 

[Townie72]

I would never bet on an SU game because I know I cannot be objective.

But if you must, I'll share what I learned from a person who has won a lot of money betting on sports.

A team coming off a big win is never really as good as that big win suggested. You should bet against them because the "Line" is higher than it should be.

A team coming off an awful loss (e.g. ND @ SU) isn't really that bad. You should bet with them.

The typical bettor, even the typical knowledgeable bettor in the aggregate, somehow cannot help themselves but be influenced by the last game they saw or read about. And the odds will reflect that.

 

[MSOrange]

I'd be surprised if it's a 2pt game at the final TV TO.

I expect the UVA lead to gradually expand and end up around 18-22. Maybe a 6-8 pt game at halftime, but we'll get tired and they'll pull away. I just don't think we can score enough even though I don't expect them to put up a big number.

If we keep it close, it's because our defense plays great, we board and actually drain some shots.

Hate to say it, but this is pretty much what I'm expecting. I'll never rule Syracuse out of a game, but I would be surprised if we won this game.

 

[SU2NASA]

Vegas is giving out free money.