Virginia rolling Miami

[jncuse]

Why do we have so many Virgina fans on our board?

Did you try reading their board? They are just happy to be on a board with a format from this century.

I think for the mist part they are a good bunch of guests with good viewpoints. They will handle the loss well on Saturday.

 

[01 Hoo]

appreciate the insight but I think you are really underestimating CJ. Parker is good as is the other two but Fair is a mid range guy, a lefty and a senior. Also the guy you aren't mentioning is Grant and that is the guy who could make life much tougher than you're used to in the post. Rak and Grant are two of the best athletes in the ACC and Grant can take his man to the rim and get to the line. If Rak comes to play we offer 5 options to go with to score. I think it will be a close game as SU tends to play every game that way. You all have been riding high 12 games straight now. Those kinda runs in a decent league are tough to keep going especially when you have played an unbalanced schedule and then a top 5 opponent pops up. I think we take this one late but not without a knock down drag out fight. Should be fun.

I'm basing my expectations for CJ on how we've performed vs. the leading scorer of our opponents in league play. In 16 league games, only once has the leading scorer from the other team exceeded his average against us (McDaniels for Clemson - 24 vs. us against an average of 17 ppg). Additionally, that same game was the only conference game this year where the leading scorer against us was the same as the leading scorer for the season for our opponent (i.e. in 15 of 16 games our opponent's leading scorer on the season was not the leading scorer against us). We're pretty effective at shutting down the opposition's first option.

I don't think you'll make things significantly tougher on us in the post than most other teams, as the Pack Line defense is built for defending the lane/post. I'm guessing Akil Mitchell (6-8, 235 Sr) will be matched up with Grant (6-8 210 So). Although his scoring is down a bit this year, Mitchell was 3rd team All-ACC last year with 13 pounts/9 boards per game. He too is very athletic and is regarded as one of the better post defenders in the league.

It's funny reading this thread that in your opinion if Rak shows up you have 5 options to go with to score, while according to an earlier poster we only have two legitimate scorers. Rak's 5.8 ppg average would land him 7th on our team in scoring, so I'm not sure how that works. I'm not flaming you as I agree he can be an option, just pointing out the difference in perception when it's your team vs. the opponent.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

I'm basing my expectations for CJ on how we've performed vs. the leading scorer of our opponents in league play. In 16 league games, only once has the leading scorer from the other team exceeded his average against us (McDaniels for Clemson - 24 vs. us against an average of 17 ppg). Additionally, that same game was the only conference game this year where the leading scorer against us was the same as the leading scorer for the season for our opponent (i.e. in 15 of 16 games our opponent's leading scorer on the season was not the leading scorer against us). We're pretty effective at shutting down the opposition's first option.

I don't think you'll make things significantly tougher on us in the post than most other teams, as the Pack Line defense is built for defending the lane/post. I'm guessing Akil Mitchell (6-8, 235 Sr) will be matched up with Grant (6-8 210 So). Although his scoring is down a bit this year, Mitchell was 3rd team All-ACC last year with 13 pounts/9 boards per game. He too is very athletic and is regarded as one of the better post defenders in the league.

It's funny reading this thread that in your opinion if Rak shows up you have 5 options to go with to score, while according to an earlier poster we only have two legitimate scorers. Rak's 5.8 ppg average would land him 7th on our team in scoring, so I'm not sure how that works. I'm not flaming you as I agree he can be an option, just pointing out the difference in perception when it's your team vs. the opponent.

Being a post defender doesn't mean you can cover a stud who makes his living beating his man off the dribble. I hope eats his wheaties, because JG is not easy to cover. No one you've faced this year has his game.

I've seen your team play several times. RAK and Keita will at least play your bigs even.

This game will come down to who makes more plays. And I've seen CJ, Tyler, Trevor and Jerami make too many this year. Ultimatley our athleticism allows us to win a close one.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I think UVA looks like an old school Big 10 team, solid defense, smart, good shooting but not extremely athletic for the most part. Good college basketball team. If they shoot well, we will struggle because their D is good and points will be at a premium. Can we get points inside?

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

-4.o virginia.

Was thinking 3.5 myself. Home court is good for a few, and Cuse is coming off 2 losses and a nailbiter with the Twerps, so no doubt the Cavs will be favored, but their weak schedule keeps it within a couple of possessions. It's not just SU fans that are withholding their praise for VA, they are still only ranked #14 or whatever, and bracketology has them at a level below the other ACC leaders. I would take the points. On a side note, I see Vegas has the O/U for Yankees wins at only 86.5. That looks like easy money on the Over.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

I think UVA looks like an old school Big 10 team, solid defense, smart, good shooting but not extremely athletic for the most part. Good college basketball team. If they shoot well, we will struggle because their D is good and points will be at a premium. Can we get points inside?

That's the $100000 question. We need to continue to work the offensive boards and make UVA pay for their aggressive defense on the perimeter. A heavy dose of pick and rolls to CJ and Jerami. Wild card will be Trevor. He needs to make his open shots. I hope he tries to drive early using ball fakes to separate. I think if he hits a couple 2's early that could go a long way...We'll see!

 

[IthacaBarrel]

That's the $100000 question. We need to continue to work the offensive boards and make UVA pay for their aggressive defense on the perimeter. A heavy dose of pick and rolls to CJ and Jerami. Wild card will be Trevor. He needs to make his open shots. I hope he tries to drive early using ball fakes to separate. I think if he hits a couple 2's early that could go a long way...We'll see!

It really SHOULD be a great game.

 

[Marsh01]

I think the line will be 5.

The thing with Virginia is they hit dagger threes at the most opportune time. Every game when they need a three someone steps up and nails one.

 

[SU2NASA]

They like us?

They're enjoying their first relevance since the early 80's?

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

It really SHOULD be a great game.

Yep...BWW then JPJ...Will be fun!

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

I think the line will be 5.

The thing with Virginia is they hit dagger threes at the most opportune time. Every game when they need a three someone steps up and nails one.

Agreed...but we've shown the ability to withstand dagger threes all year. Really this is going to come down to two things: 1) can we stay with their shooters? 2) can we make enough shots to make them play from behind?

Phew...I'm more excited about this game then I was for Duke...

 

[HurleyForHeisman]

They're enjoying their first relevance since the early 80's?

Am I the only one who remembers watching a solid Virginia team crush Calipari's UMass team at the Carrier Dome in the '93 NCAA tournament? That was the year after SU lost to UMass.

 

[Marsh01]

Am I the only one who remembers watching a solid Virginia team crush Calipari's UMass team at the Carrier Dome in the '93 NCAA tournament? That was the year after SU lost to UMass.

Ugh probation year...

I do remember that beating however.

 

[BuffOrange]

Curious - if you guys were to set the line, what would you make it?

Also, what do you expect the actual line on the game to be?

If the answer to these two questions are different then you're doing it wrong.

I was gonna say 3, which I'm surprised to see is lower than other guesses. Kenpom now favors UVA on a neutral court yet Vegas likes SU's futures a lot better so, I don't know, it'll be interesting.

Was thinking 3.5 myself. Home court is good for a few, and Cuse is coming off 2 losses and a nailbiter with the Twerps, so no doubt the Cavs will be favored,

The last two games raised our stock, not lowered it imo. I would've gone higher after the NIT St & BC games.

 

[01 Hoo]

I think UVA looks like an old school Big 10 team, solid defense, smart, good shooting but not extremely athletic for the most part. Good college basketball team. If they shoot well, we will struggle because their D is good and points will be at a premium. Can we get points inside?

While we won't be as athletic across the board as Syracuse, I think you'll be surprised if you're expecting athletes on the level of an old school Big 10 team. Mitchell, Gill, Atkins, and Brogdon are all very athletic, and while I'm sure there will be equals there won't be a better athlete on the floor than Justin Anderson.

That's the $100000 question. We need to continue to work the offensive boards and make UVA pay for their aggressive defense on the perimeter. A heavy dose of pick and rolls to CJ and Jerami. Wild card will be Trevor. He needs to make his open shots. I hope he tries to drive early using ball fakes to separate. I think if he hits a couple 2's early that could go a long way...We'll see!

I don't think I'd classify our defense as aggressive on the perimeter - it's more aggressive on the interior in frequently doubling the post an sinking off ball defenders into the lane to prevent dribble penetration. Here's what Coach Larranaga said last night after the game:

"I don’t think they are a pressure team, they are a pack team. You just can’t get inside of them. Virginia takes away all of your twos and they challenge your threes . . . "

I mentioned it early, but I agree Cooney or anyone else getting hot from deep would be a wildcard and could tilt the game in your favor. Alternatively if Fair is able to isolate his man and get good midrange looks that could be a formula for success too. I dont' think you should expect anyone to have success beating us off the dribble and driving the lane, and I think you'll find offensive rebounds tougher to come by in this game than most (a byproduct of packing the defense in the interior, I believe we're 2nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage).

 

[GoHoosGo]

I mentioned it early, but I agree Cooney or anyone else getting hot from deep would be a wildcard and could tilt the game in your favor. Alternatively if Fair is able to isolate his man and get good midrange looks that could be a formula for success too. I dont' think you should expect anyone to have success beating us off the dribble and driving the lane, and I think you'll find offensive rebounds tougher to come by in this game than most (a byproduct of packing the defense in the interior, I believe we're 2nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage).

I do think Ennis has the quickness to pose some problems for us with dribble penetration. We've occasionally been susceptible to guards who can do that (think Seth Allen), so I'd imagine that will be a feature of Cuse's gameplan. And while we generally do a good job grabbing the defensive boards, we did allow Miami's athletic bigs to grab 12 offensive rebounds last night, so we will have to work pretty hard to keep Cuse's bigs - who are at least as athletic and almost certainly better basketball players - off the offensive glass.

 

[jsshap]

I think UVA looks like an old school Big 10 team, solid defense, smart, good shooting but not extremely athletic for the most part. Good college basketball team. If they shoot well, we will struggle because their D is good and points will be at a premium. Can we get points inside?

I am not sure how you can watch UVA and say the are not athletic. Atkins, Gill, Mitchell, Anderson, Brogdon are all very good athletes. It is actually the first time in many years UVA has had an edge in atheticism over most of their opponents. The matchups here are great...Ennis and Perrantes have similar games and a similar uncanny calm and responsible game for freshman; Brogdon v Cooney is an edge UVA on paper at this point, but given UVA's philosophy of no one gets to the rim and given that Cooney is too good of a shooter not to go off eventually, that one could go either way. I am not sure if Harris will mark Fair or not, I expect at least some, but that matchup is also great. All in all Fair is the better player, but Harris is solid across the board and at home, on senior night, against a team that will likely allow him some open threes, in the biggest game of his career, he is really dangerous and (like Cooney v Brodgon in reverse) it would not be shocking at all if he had the better game of the two; Mitchell v Grant, two great athletes, and Mitchell is another senior who always brings it but certainly will on senior night. If Grant is not 100% healthy I dont think SU can win, but assuming he is I cannot wait to see him battle with Mitchell, Gill and Atkins; and then Gill/Tobey v Rak/Keita. Tobey, to me, is the least impressive of the 4, so I like Cuse here but Gill is impressive and seems to be getting better and better. UVA almost certainly wont be slowed by foul trouble given how deep they go. I wish Cuse did as well, they certainly could go as deep...Roberson would see a bunch of time on UVA...but since Cuse does not, lets hope the refs swallow their whistle and let these guys battle. It would be nice to have DC in this game with all of the battling there will be down low, especially to avoid foul trouble. In the end, as is always the case with Cuse these days, they need solid games from 3 of their 4 "plus" players to win. They only went 2 for 4 against Maryland (in part because of injury) and the result was a near loss to a really awful team. I expect line will be UVA -4 or 4.5, which is about where it should be, and that winning team is the one that makes more shots from 15 feet and out (not a real bold prediction, I realize)...or first to 50. No way both teams get over 60 in this one. Its a huge game for both teams...for UVA puts a stamp on an incredible conference run (a lucky bounce away from being undefeated)...a marquee win to tell the nation they are legit top 10 and I would think gives them a chance for a 2 if get to ACC finals. For SU a win or even a close loss still gives them a decent line at a 1...but a double digit loss will confirm national perception that the team is on a bit of descent and, in my mind, require them to lose only once more the rest of the way (ACC tourney included) to have a good shot at a 1.

 

[Knicks411]

Justin Anderson is a ridiculous athlete.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

While we won't be as athletic across the board as Syracuse, I think you'll be surprised if you're expecting athletes on the level of an old school Big 10 team. Mitchell, Gill, Atkins, and Brogdon are all very athletic, and while I'm sure there will be equals there won't be a better athlete on the floor than Justin Anderson.



I don't think I'd classify our defense as aggressive on the perimeter - it's more aggressive on the interior in frequently doubling the post an sinking off ball defenders into the lane to prevent dribble penetration.

And when you do, we need to swing the ball to the open wing, either to CJ or Jerami and let them go to work.​

Here's what Coach Larranaga said last night after the game:


"I don’t think they are a pressure team, they are a pack team. You just can’t get inside of them. Virginia takes away all of your twos and they challenge your threes . . . "

I mentioned it early, but I agree Cooney or anyone else getting hot from deep would be a wildcard and could tilt the game in your favor. Alternatively if Fair is able to isolate his man and get good midrange looks that could be a formula for success too. I dont' think you should expect anyone to have success beating us off the dribble and driving the lane, and I think you'll find offensive rebounds tougher to come by in this game than most (a byproduct of packing the defense in the interior, I believe we're 2nd in the country in defensive rebounding percentage).

We'll see. The key will be to beat the first guy, make UVA adjust then find the open guy. Making the shot will help too. As far as anyone having success driving the ball, we'll see. We've been able to all year against defenses as good as yours. I hope you're ready to see a real 2-3 too. It's going to be a great game. ​

​

 

[01 Hoo]

I am not sure how you can watch UVA and say the are not athletic. Atkins, Gill, Mitchell, Anderson, Brogdon are all very good athletes. It is actually the first time in many years UVA has had an edge in atheticism over most of their opponents. The matchups here are great...Ennis and Perrantes have similar games and a similar uncanny calm and responsible game for freshman; Brogdon v Cooney is an edge UVA on paper at this point, but given UVA's philosophy of no one gets to the rim and given that Cooney is too good of a shooter not to go off eventually, that one could go either way. I am not sure if Harris will mark Fair or not, I expect at least some, but that matchup is also great. All in all Fair is the better player, but Harris is solid across the board and at home, on senior night, against a team that will likely allow him some open threes, in the biggest game of his career, he is really dangerous and (like Cooney v Brodgon in reverse) it would not be shocking at all if he had the better game of the two; Mitchell v Grant, two great athletes, and Mitchell is another senior who always brings it but certainly will on senior night. If Grant is not 100% healthy I dont think SU can win, but assuming he is I cannot wait to see him battle with Mitchell, Gill and Atkins; and then Gill/Tobey v Rak/Keita. Tobey, to me, is the least impressive of the 4, so I like Cuse here but Gill is impressive and seems to be getting better and better. UVA almost certainly wont be slowed by foul trouble given how deep they go. I wish Cuse did as well, they certainly could go as deep...Roberson would see a bunch of time on UVA...but since Cuse does not, lets hope the refs swallow their whistle and let these guys battle. It would be nice to have DC in this game with all of the battling there will be down low, especially to avoid foul trouble. In the end, as is always the case with Cuse these days, they need solid games from 3 of their 4 "plus" players to win. They only went 2 for 4 against Maryland (in part because of injury) and the result was a near loss to a really awful team. I expect line will be UVA -4 or 4.5, which is about where it should be, and that winning team is the one that makes more shots from 15 feet and out (not a real bold prediction, I realize)...or first to 50. No way both teams get over 60 in this one. Its a huge game for both teams...for UVA puts a stamp on an incredible conference run (a lucky bounce away from being undefeated)...a marquee win to tell the nation they are legit top 10 and I would think gives them a chance for a 2 if get to ACC finals. For SU a win or even a close loss still gives them a decent line at a 1...but a double digit loss will confirm national perception that the team is on a bit of descent and, in my mind, require them to lose only once more the rest of the way (ACC tourney included) to have a good shot at a 1.

Somebody's been watching us closely the last few weeks . Fantastic post and analysis and understanding of our team.

 

[sewdog]

Justin Anderson is a ridiculous athlete.

Yes he is. He gives us at least one highlight reel defensive play each game. Last night he snuffed a lob dunk cleanly. That never happens.

 

[pearl31]

for UVA puts a stamp on an incredible conference run (a lucky bounce away from being undefeated)

Yeah, never mind the unbalanced schedule, and the prayer 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Pitt, and the last minute frantic escape vs might VaTech

 

[SRHoo]

Tobey, to me, is the least impressive of the 4, so I like Cuse here but Gill is impressive and seems to be getting better and better.

From someone who has watched every minute of every UVa game this year, I can tell you Tobey is the X factor in this game and the rest of the season. The kid has an NBA skillset, but is so freaking inconsistent it drives me crazy. If he can get on a roll in March, I seriously believe we can win it all. If not, our vulnerability is in the middle.

Mike averages about 7 & 4 a game, but he doesn't consistently score 7 a game. He'll score 12-14 one night, then 0-2 the next. When he's playing well, he looks great...when he has an early turnover, takes a bad shot or two, or picks up early fouls, he gets frustrated.

He can make Syracuse pay for that soft spot in the middle of the zone...he can hit the foul line jumper. Big difference between "can" and "will" though.

 

[INTAHOOCH]

Why do we have so many Virgina fans on our board?

Why do we have so many Virgina fans on our board?

Actually one of your fans invited us to come over and have intelligent conversations with the cues fans about the game but to ignore a few of the usual idiots that are on every sports board. Hey it's not duke and unc playing for the title this year - it's going to the color orange one way or another.

 

[01 Hoo]

Yeah, never mind the unbalanced schedule, and the prayer 3-pointer at the buzzer to beat Pitt, and the last minute frantic escape vs might VaTech

I really don't get the unbalanced schedule thing. Let's assume for a minute that setting aside this Saturday for a moment Virginia and Syracuse both win the remainder of their league games. That gives Virginia a 16-1 record, and Syracuse a 15-2 record. Now let's say instead of Florida State and Notre Dame, we played Duke and Pitt twice (just like Syracuse). Since we split two close games both on the road with those two teams, let's assume at worse we go 1-1 in those games, making our record 1 game worse and equal to Syracuse at 15-2 (again, these records excluding the SU/UVA game this weekend). Would that change the perception of our season? I guess so, but I'm not sure why.

Also, I'm not sure why our 3 to beat Pitt was a prayer. We got an open look for a 40% shooter in a game which was headed to overtime at worst, not a halfcourt heave that needed to go in to avoid a loss. Hmmm, who could that have been . . . .