Wedneseday Bubble Schedule and Game Discussion

[jncuse]

We’re still focusing too much on RPI. It’s just one tool and one supposedly being devalued.

Agreed, the individual* RPI means very little. Tracking our movements in it is not worth the energy. It will be a strength of our resume either way if they are looking at it.

At this point it really matters who is winning or losing around us, and if they are quad 1 wins.

*the RPI itself is still as important as ever as it is the baseline for determining most other metrics, and it is up to its old tricks by overrating the SEC this year (like it did the Pac 12 in 2016)

 

[jncuse]

In terms of Buffalo being a quad 1 win game, I wouldn't get too worked up either way. It will help that its a win against a team in the tourney o a team that is legit in the top 2 tiers.

They look much deeper at your quality of wins when you are on the cutting line. They don't just discuss numbers back and forth,

 

[jncuse]

It’s 45 freaking dollars. No one’s getting rich making bets that pay out 45 bucks after three months.

In the words of Ric Flair "I spent more money last year on spilt liquor then you made in the entire year".

As a side note, why was he spilling so much liquor.

 

[jncuse]

It’s 45 freaking dollars. No one’s getting rich making bets that pay out 45 bucks after three months.

As I said before, I take the 45 (and the 20 initial), and can put it on anybody else in the tourney I want to make $520 or more. Or I can spread it across Kansas/Xavier and two longer shots and each pay $500.

I apologize in advance for not adding 2 zero's at the end of each number.

 

[Ryand877]

That ND game is killing us, as soon as the final buzzer went off and we lost that game I told my wife this game will keep us out of the tourney. We should have won by 15+, ND shot 14% in the first half. Everyone talks about the Bonnies game or Wake #1 or G-tech but the real daggers were that ND game and that game at FSU where Brisette airballed the game winner.

Same thing. Except now, Cuse still lost and now my wife is annoyed at me lol.

 

[Alsacs]

As I said before, I take the 45 (and the 20 initial), and can put it on anybody else in the tourney I want to make $520 or more. Or I can spread it accross Kansas/Xavier and two longer shots and each pay $500.

The payout isn’t good enough for me to stick with Virginia.
Getting a profit and then reinvesting in a better bet is what I would do.
I don’t trust Virginia to win it all and that payout is under 1k if it happened.

 

[Tom W.]

Agreed, the individual* RPI means very little. Tracking our movements in it is not worth the energy.

Well, it really doesn't take much energy. Any metric going in the right direction for us just makes me feel better. Haha.

But how about we just beat UNC tonight and be done with it!?

 

[Alsacs]

I had this ticket last year which I thought could have won.
I was pissed at how they lost.

 

[jncuse]

Well, it really doesn't take much energy. Any metric going in the right direction for us just makes me feel better. Haha.

But how about we just beat UNC tonight and be done with it!?

To be fair, I shouldn't say anybody is wasting too much time on this... because I am very guilty of it.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

I don't buy this one bit.

 

[orangenirvana]

0-1

Louisville is in very good shape after today's performance, regardless of how they do tomorrow. Gives them a fourth Quad 1 win and should bump their metrics a bit.

Florida State is fine despite what McD and Jockitch were saying about them.

 

[Henny & Coke]

2. Syracuse (71 percent, 10.8)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 46 percent

Syracuse's traditional zone scheme has been very effective this season, leading the Orange to the 10th-most-efficient opponent-adjusted defense. Tuesday night's win over Wake Forest might be enough to get the Orange in, but one more win (over North Carolina) would seal it. Note that a team like Syracuse might have to get through the First Four, which isn't counted in today's exercise.

From ESPN "Giant Killers" article published today. (Insider article)

71% at top means estimated 71% chance of making tournament right now. 10.8 is BPI projected seed.

 

[Tom W.]

Well, because I know you are all dying to know what the great Tom W thinks, I have Syracuse still in my last 4 in over on TCW Bracketology this morning. I definitely think they can still make it with a loss tonight, but I would probably put the odds around 40%. With a win, I would say 97%.

In the meantime, I'll be pulling hard for the teams in OrangeNirvana's post.

0-1

Louisville is in very good shape after today's performance, regardless of how they do tomorrow. Gives them a fourth Quad 1 win and should bump their metrics a bit.

Florida State is fine despite what McD and Jockitch were saying about them.

Big win for Louisville, but I don't think they are out of the woods by any stretch. Very bubbly resume. I think Cuse would be ahead of them if we win tonight. If Louisville wins tomorrow, however...

 

[Alsacs]

I said BC was dangerous.
It’s because they can score.
You can’t muck up the game against them.
They have improved as the year has gone on.
If Robinson returns they are a tournament team next year.
He is a Junior. If he was here he is gone.

 

[Orangezoo]

0-1

Louisville is in very good shape after today's performance, regardless of how they do tomorrow. Gives them a fourth Quad 1 win and should bump their metrics a bit.

Florida State is fine despite what McD and Jockitch were saying about them.

I don't think either should be comfortable. And FSU is barely in top 50 RPI. This might bump them down and thus not give the Cards a Q1 win. Right now our numbers are better than Louisvilles and on par with or right below FSU.

We just need to beat UNC regardless. They are due to cool off. Don't let Pinson and Maye rule the paint and we can do this.

 

[Briancuse]

In the words of Ric Flair "I spent more money last year on spilt liquor then you made in the entire year".

As a side note, why was he spilling so much liquor.

It gets harder to pour the more you have in you.

 

[raf4488]

Is NCSU a lock? I assume so but they look awful. BC is much improved.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

We just need to beat UNC regardless. They are due to cool off.

Well they have lost two in a row and we have won two in a row. Plus, don't forget, they got Woffed this season.

 

[bpo57]

Agreed, the individual* RPI means very little. Tracking our movements in it is not worth the energy. It will be a strength of our resume either way if they are looking at it.

At this point it really matters who is winning or losing around us, and if they are quad 1 wins.

*the RPI itself is still as important as ever as it is the baseline for determining most other metrics, and it is up to its old tricks by overrating the SEC this year (like it did the Pac 12 in 2016)

And the ACC in 2017.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Chatman on BC is a 24 year old junior sheesh

 

[orangenirvana]

I don't think either should be comfortable. And FSU is barely in top 50 RPI. This might bump them down and thus not give the Cards a Q1 win. Right now our numbers are better than Louisvilles and on par with or right below FSU.

You're right - FSU is now 52 in RPI. Suck it, Louisville!

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Big win for Louisville, but I don't think they are out of the woods by any stretch. Very bubbly resume. I think Cuse would be ahead of them if we win tonight. If Louisville wins tomorrow, however...

Imagine how mush of a lock they’d be if they didn’t blow A 4 point lead with .9 seconds left to play vs the number 1 team ?

 

[UnknownOrange]

View attachment 124397 I had this ticket last year which I thought could have won.
I was pissed at how they lost.

"Why don't you give me half the money you were going to bet, we'll go out back, I'll kick ya in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!"

 

[JeremyCuse]

Chatman on BC is a 24 year old junior sheesh

BYU of the East

 

[Alsacs]

"Why don't you give me half the money you were going to bet, we'll go out back, I'll kick ya in the nuts, and we'll call it a day!"

I jump at value.
Michigan at 8000-1 was insane. Went for a HR and feel like if they beat Oregon they go to the Final Four and could have won it all.

I have another one for this year. At 5k on Michigan. Won’t pay a million but a good 6 figure amount.