We're up to an 8 seed on Bracketmatrix

[Eric15]

This is the highest we have been since before the UConn/Oregon debacle.

Very important that we take care of business at home in the next two vs. FSU and BC. If we can win those two games, and then go 3-4 in the final 7 games (obviously I hope we do better, but that's a gauntlet and just being realistic), that would put us 12-6 and on very solid ground. My goal for this team is a 6 seed -- I think it's attainable.

 

[Brooky03]

We've definitely benefited from a soft ACC schedule to start conference play. FSU is a talented, tall, athletic team with its back against the wall in conference play. This game will set my expectations for the rest of the season.

If we get the W like we're supposed to, I like our chances for the 6 seed. If we poop in our big boy pants and lose, bubble, here we come.

This isn't a 'must win' coming up but I think this game will show us what kind of team we're actually working with. FSU is considerably better than their ACC record indicates.

 

[HakAttack]

I see us beating FSU and BC and then also beating Louisville and Duke. I see us losing to UNC, UVA and NC State. The Clemson game is a toss up to me, and I think we beat Wake.

That's also 12-6. There's many paths to 12 conference wins in the last 9 games, and I think that going 5-4 in this stretch is absolutely doable. Obviously starting off 2-0 makes a 5-4 mark much, much easier. I think this team can go 2-1 with two HUGE home wins out of the Duke, UL and UVA trio.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Not sure why everyone's pencilling in NC State as a loss. That game is going to be a pick em. I also am pretty sure we beat Louisville at home.

 

[HakAttack]

Not sure why everyone's pencilling in NC State as a loss. That game is going to be a pick em. I also am pretty sure we beat Louisville at home.

I think we beat Louisville at home too. My concern then is not getting too hyped after that big win and coming out flat against Duke a few days later. NC State on the road is a toss up, yes, but I think we lose that. Haven't we generally had a hard time with them at their place?

 

[Eric15]

Not sure why everyone's pencilling in NC State as a loss. That game is going to be a pick em. I also am pretty sure we beat Louisville at home.

I see BC as likely a manageable win, Wake we should beat but it's never a gimme winning on the road, FSU/NC State/Louisville/Clemson as coin flips, and then Duke/UNC/UVA as very hard games where I will be happy winning one.

 

[Brooky03]

Not sure why everyone's pencilling in NC State as a loss. That game is going to be a pick em. I also am pretty sure we beat Louisville at home.

With the type of defense Louisville plays, I see us losing that one. NC State could indeed go either way. They don't completely suck and it is on the road, though, which is why a conservative/reasonable prediction would be for an L.

 

[Cusefan0307]

With the type of defense Louisville plays, I see us losing that one. NC State could indeed go either way. They don't completely suck and it is on the road, though, which is why a conservative/reasonable prediction would be for an L.

It's not nearly the same style as when Pitino was there.

Anyway I'm pretty bullish if we win tonight. I think every game left is winnable except maybe at UNC.

 

[Eric15]

FSU is considerably better than their ACC record indicates.

I mean they were one buzzer beater away from beating Duke at full strength. It's going to be a very tough game tonight.

 

[JeremyCuse]

This is the highest we have been since before the UConn/Oregon debacle.

Very important that we take care of business at home in the next two vs. FSU and BC. If we can win those two games, and then go 3-4 in the final 7 games (obviously I hope we do better, but that's a gauntlet and just being realistic), that would put us 12-6 and on very solid ground. My goal for this team is a 6 seed -- I think it's attainable.

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As you noted I think if we can hold serve at home (for the most part) we should be OK. Outside of the Ga Tech debacle we have done a really good job of not having bad in conference losses. We need to ensure we beat BC, Wake and Clemson. Personally I am not as Bullish on our chances against Duke or UNC as UNC has our number and with Duke at full strength having already lost to us I expect to get their full attention. That leaves FSU, NC State, Virginia and Lville. If SU can simply go 2-2 here I think were in pretty good shape assuming we take care of business against BC Wake and Clemson. Clearly we will have 3 shots to all but lock in a tourney bid with the Duke, UVA and UNC games. Assuming we can get one of those three its hard to see how we get left out of the tournament barring the worst collapse of all time down the stretch.

 

[JeremyCuse]

With the type of defense Louisville plays, I see us losing that one. NC State could indeed go either way. They don't completely suck and it is on the road, though, which is why a conservative/reasonable prediction would be for an L.

SU has played pretty well on the road this year which I think gives us a better chance to win that game then some other years. Still I think we definitely win that game if its at home.

 

[Eric15]

As you noted I think if we can hold serve at home (for the most part) we should be OK. Outside of the Ga Tech debacle we have done a really good job of not having bad in conference losses. We need to ensure we beat BC, Wake and Clemson. Personally I am not as Bullish on our chances against Duke or UNC as UNC has our number and with Duke at full strength having already lost to us I expect to get their full attention. That leaves FSU, NC State, Virginia and Lville. If SU can simply go 2-2 here I think were in pretty good shape assuming we take care of business against BC Wake and Clemson. Clearly we will have 3 shots to all but lock in a tourney bid with the Duke, UVA and UNC games. Assuming we can get one of those three its hard to see how we get left out of the tournament barring the worst collapse of all time down the stretch.

There was once an innocent, care-free time in our lives when conference tourneys were pleasurable and played for NCAA seeding purposes. I would really like to go back to those days.

 

[JeremyCuse]

There was once an innocent, care-free time in our lives when conference tourneys were pleasurable and played for NCAA seeding purposes. I would really like to go back to those days.

Lol your right about that. The ACC tournament especially has been a house of horrors. I haven't even begun to think about a potential 1st round matchup yet but I am sure it will somehow be Pitt or BC for a third time. It would be nice to go in with a bid all but locked up so were not sweating some 1st or 2nd round Thurs night game. This year there are a lot of outside factors that could affect us as well. Can Buffalo win the MAC or do they lose in the conf tourney, ditto for Old Dominion. Can Ohio State stay a quality win does Pitt or BC or maybe even Clemson go on some sort of late run to make our wins look better etc. Things outside of the Va Tech game seem to be trending positively, we just need to avoid a swoon as we hit the real beef of the schedule.

 

[NateW]

Anyway I'm pretty bullish if we win tonight. I think every game left is winnable except maybe at UNC.

This is where I’m at.

And a side note - ppl chalking up an NC ST loss is perplexing to me - if we lose to a team that had 9 FG’s in an entire game, AT HOME!!!, I’m gonna kick a dog. Not mine - but some dog.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Not sure why everyone's pencilling in NC State as a loss. That game is going to be a pick em.

Risk management.

 

[CuseBBall]

It seems like there should be a very large gap between the 8 seeds and the 10/11 seeds on BracketMatrix.

Nebraska is a 10 seed and 13-9, 3-8 in the Big 10
Texas is a 10 seed and 12-10, 4-5 in Big 12
Indiana is a 11 seed and 13-9 and 4-7 in the Big 10

Our 16-6 record and 7-2 in the ACC looks pretty good compared to these teams currently in...The bubble looks atrocious.

 

[Eric15]

This is where I’m at.

And a side note - ppl chalking up an NC ST loss is perplexing to me - if we lose to a team that had 9 FG’s in an entire game, AT HOME!!!, I’m gonna kick a dog. Not mine - but some dog.

I hear you, but anything can happen in a college basketball game. We lost by 40 or whatever at Depaul, and then a few days later won four games in four days including #1 UConn. NC State will be a tough game on the road.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I hear you, but anything can happen in a college basketball game. We lost by 40 or whatever at Depaul, and then a few days later won four games in four days including #1 UConn. NC State will be a tough game on the road.

Tough? sure. Automatic loss? no. They are really struggling right now. Lost 5 out of 8 including giving Wake their only conference win.

 

[JeremyCuse]

I hear you, but anything can happen in a college basketball game. We lost by 40 or whatever at Depaul, and then a few days later won four games in four days including #1 UConn. NC State will be a tough game on the road.

Yup the transitive property doesn't work in college sports. The game before that NC State nearly beat UVA if I remember correctly. Will be a tough game I am sure.

 

[shandeezy7]

I mean they were one buzzer beater away from beating Duke at full strength*. It's going to be a very tough game tonight.

*Zion did not play the entire second half. Obviously was still an impressive showing by FSU and a game they could have easily won.

 

[690West]

Not sure why everyone's pencilling in NC State as a loss. That game is going to be a pick em. I also am pretty sure we beat Louisville at home.

If NC state game was tonight, they'd open as 3.5 point favorites. Tight but not a pickem.

Louisville would indeed open as a "pickem" if it was tonight.

 

[Eric15]

Tough? sure. Automatic loss? no. They are really struggling right now. Lost 5 out of 8 including giving Wake their only conference win.

Who said automatic loss? I had it in "coin flip" column above.

 

[Cusefan0307]

If NC state game was tonight, they'd open as 3.5 point favorites. Tight but not a pickem.

Louisville would indeed open as a "pickem" if it was tonight.

I thought we would be 2-2.5 point favorites tonight according to KenPom, but it opened at 4.5. I'm going to assume our metrics pre Frank Howard aren't baked into the spread until proven otherwise.

 

[690West]

I thought we would be 2-2.5 point favorites tonight according to KenPom, but it opened at 4.5. I'm going to assume our metrics pre Frank Howard aren't baked into the spread until proven otherwise.

good point.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Who said automatic loss? I had it in "coin flip" column above.

Wasn't you. Another poster in the thread.