We're up to an 8 seed on Bracketmatrix

[JeremyCuse]

I thought we would be 2-2.5 point favorites tonight according to KenPom, but it opened at 4.5. I'm going to assume our metrics pre Frank Howard aren't baked into the spread until proven otherwise.

4.5 Sounds about right. This feels like the type of game one team will win by a couple possessions versus this coming down to a last second shot. Just feels like someone will pull away late or at least enough that Fts will be a factor.

 

[Eric15]

*Zion did not play the entire second half.

My bad, that's right.

 

[Millhouse]

This is the highest we have been since before the UConn/Oregon debacle.

Very important that we take care of business at home in the next two vs. FSU and BC. If we can win those two games, and then go 3-4 in the final 7 games (obviously I hope we do better, but that's a gauntlet and just being realistic), that would put us 12-6 and on very solid ground. My goal for this team is a 6 seed -- I think it's attainable.

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i would be thrilled with 5-4

 

[HoustonCuse]

As for NC State - you need to throw out the 24 points thing. That is a once in a 100 years performance. It won't happen again and it doesn't mean NC State is suddenly the worst team in America and a roll over opponent. I don't see that as an automatic loss and looking at our remaining schedule it is one of the most winnable games on there, but people are going to be horrified if they expect NC State to come out and look like 5th graders and score 36 points against us.

 

[NateW]

I hear you, but anything can happen in a college basketball game. We lost by 40 or whatever at Depaul, and then a few days later won four games in four days including #1 UConn. NC State will be a tough game on the road.

Yep - all true and your example is probably the golden anecdote.

I guess I’m just more on the train of thinking we’re actually a pretty good team and that we will win the games we are supposed to.

 

[FrancoPizza]

There was once an innocent, care-free time in our lives when conference tourneys were pleasurable and played for NCAA seeding purposes. I would really like to go back to those days.

Except seeds don't mean much these days. They really don't when teams 4-40 are about the same on paper. Now if the committee could theoretically seed teams based on projected matchup difficulty, that would be a game changer. But to my knowledge there isn't a reliable mathematical model to measure matchup difficulty. It's an elusive intangible.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Except seeds don't mean much these days. They really don't when teams 4-40 are about the same on paper. Now if the committee could theoretically seed teams based on projected matchup difficulty, that would be a game changer. But to my knowledge there isn't a reliable mathematical model to measure matchup difficulty. It's an elusive intangible.

I agree with respect to college basketball parity, but sneaking into the 5-6 seed grouping would most assuredly result in a cleaner path to the Sweet 16 than being in the dreaded 7-10 range.

 

[Eric15]

Except seeds don't mean much these days.

There's still a direct correlation between the seed you get and how far you go in the tourney. Our 2016 and 2018 runs were outliers. 1 seeds go to the Final Four most often followed by 2 seeds followed by 3 seeds, etc.

 

[HakAttack]

Wasn't you. Another poster in the thread.

I didn’t say “automatic loss”. I said “I see us losing to...” I also said I saw the NC State game as a toss up.

How is that an “automatic loss”??

 

[gilardino]

I mean they were one buzzer beater away from beating Duke at full strength. It's going to be a very tough game tonight.

not true, no Zion in second half vs FSU

 

[FrancoPizza]

There's still a direct correlation between the seed you get and how far you go in the tourney. Our 2016 and 2018 runs were outliers. 1 seeds go to the Final Four most often followed by 2 seeds followed by 3 seeds, etc.

I get that but I'd also like to see that broken out by decade. I'd think we'd see some significant trends towards higher variability which helps teams like SU which will not be sniffing a high seed.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I didn’t say “automatic loss”. I said “I see us losing to...” I also said I saw the NC State game as a toss up.

How is that an “automatic loss”??

Wasn't you either. Man people are touchy lately.

 

[HakAttack]

Wasn't you either. Man people are touchy lately.

I got slammed in another thread when we beat Pitt so I’m not exactly a picture of serenity on the board.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

This is the highest we have been since before the UConn/Oregon debacle.

Very important that we take care of business at home in the next two vs. FSU and BC. If we can win those two games, and then go 3-4 in the final 7 games (obviously I hope we do better, but that's a gauntlet and just being realistic), that would put us 12-6 and on very solid ground. My goal for this team is a 6 seed -- I think it's attainable.

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And to be placed in Hartford because I already have tickets.

 

[Zepharus]

We've definitely benefited from a soft ACC schedule to start conference play. FSU is a talented, tall, athletic team with its back against the wall in conference play. This game will set my expectations for the rest of the season.

If we get the W like we're supposed to, I like our chances for the 6 seed. If we poop in our big boy pants and lose, bubble, here we come.

This isn't a 'must win' coming up but I think this game will show us what kind of team we're actually working with. FSU is considerably better than their ACC record indicates.

with what is coming? I think it is a Must win.

 

[Brooky03]

with what is coming? I think it is a Must win.

11 ACC wins give us a good chance to go dancing. We have, by my count, 4 teams left on the schedule worse than FSU. That's why it's not a must win, imo. A 'must win' is a game that all but eliminates the chance for the NCAAT if you lose.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

I love the smell of a nice, old-fashioned "What is a Must Win" debate in early February

 

[grant]

This is the highest we have been since before the UConn/Oregon debacle.

Very important that we take care of business at home in the next two vs. FSU and BC. If we can win those two games, and then go 3-4 in the final 7 games (obviously I hope we do better, but that's a gauntlet and just being realistic), that would put us 12-6 and on very solid ground. My goal for this team is a 6 seed -- I think it's attainable.

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Geez that stretch from Feb 13th to the 26th

 

[Consigliere]

Hoping we get close enough to a protected seed so we have a realistic shot at a Hartford - D.C. road.

 

[jncuse]

Assuming we are actually an 8 seed as of now (the Bracket Matrix is the best proxy we have), and we go 5-4 the rest of the way against a hard schedule, that should get us in the 6 seed discussion pre ACC tournament.