What is Reasonable to Expect Moving to the 3-3-5 in Year One?

[sutomcat]

Our Aztec visitor mentioned that Long has said it takes 3-5 years to fully implement his 3-3-5 scheme. It has a lot to it and I believe to get the full scheme in place, that might be an accurate estimate.

However, what can we expect in terms of an immediate impact? Should we expect immediate improvement?

I think the answer is yes.

There isn’t a ton of data on this but let’s look at a couple of schools that implemented the 3-3-5 recently and how it impacted things.

Iowa State is one of the other schools that has implemented the 3-3-5. Matt Campbell and Dino were both hired at the same time, starting at their new schools in 2016. Both encountered problems with defense early on. Dino stayed with his DC Brian Ward and Brian’s preferred scheme for 3.5 years. Matt was less patient. After the bad defense in 2016, Iowa State started 2017 out poorly on defense as well, so early in the season, he and Iowa State DC Jon Heacock decided to implement the 3-3-5. It had an almost immediate impact.

How Iowa State became CFB's leader in defensive innovation

College and pro coaches alike made the trip to Iowa State this offseason to study defense, because the Cyclones have become a "petri dish" of defensive innovation.

247sports.com

And this is with a coach who didn’t know the scheme very well, using talent likely very similar to what Syracuse has to work with today. The rest is history; Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country these days.

The other example I think we need to look at is Arizona State. Arizona State had a very bad defense in 2017. They couldn’t stop anyone. Herm Edwards decided the San Diego State 3-3-5 scheme was what they needed to turn things around. He hired Danny Gonzales, Rocky Long’s right hand guy, who had just been named the San Diego State DC at the start of 2017.

Danny served as the Arizona State DC for 2018 and 2019 (he just left to become the new HC at New Mexico).

Here are some metrics on defense for Arizona State showing what happened when the 3-3-5 was implemented.

2017
274.9 yards passing/game
176.5 yards rushing/game (5.0 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 32.8 (104th of 130)

2018
233.8 yards passing/game
171.5 yards rushing/game (4.5 ypc)
Points/G: 29.9 (59th of 130)

2019
268.2 yards passing/game
125.2 yards rushing/game (3.5 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 22.4 (35th of 130)

Just for comparison purposes, this is what the Syracuse defense did this season...

2019
261.5 yards passing/game
201.6 yards rushing/game (5.1 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 30.7 (88th of 130)

So I would expect modest decreases in yardage allowed per game but significant decreases in points allowed per game, that continue to get better over time.

 

[SmilinBob]

Good points Tom. I just want the D to tackle well and hope they aren't "thinking" too much while learning the new D. I really think it'll be easier to learn for this group of players than most.

 

[All4SU]

I don’t care if we play 11 linebackers. I just want a defense that can: a) get pressure on a QB; b) get turnovers, and c) tackle, tackle, tackle.

 

[Deleted member 7047]

Our Aztec visitor mentioned that Long has said it takes 3-5 years to fully implement his 3-3-5 scheme. It has a lot to it and I believe to get the full scheme in place, that might be an accurate estimate.

However, what can we expect in terms of an immediate impact? Should we expect immediate improvement?

I think the answer is yes.

There isn’t a ton of data on this but let’s look at a couple of schools that implemented the 3-3-5 recently and how it impacted things.

Iowa State is one of the other schools that has implemented the 3-3-5. Matt Campbell and Dino were both hired at the same time, starting at their new schools in 2016. Both encountered problems with defense early on. Dino stayed with his DC Brian Ward and Brian’s preferred scheme for 3.5 years. Matt was less patient. After the bad defense in 2016, Iowa State started 2017 out poorly on defense as well, so early in the season, he and Iowa State DC Jon Heacock decided to implement the 3-3-5. It had an almost immediate impact.

How Iowa State became CFB's leader in defensive innovation

College and pro coaches alike made the trip to Iowa State this offseason to study defense, because the Cyclones have become a "petri dish" of defensive innovation.

247sports.com

And this is with a coach who didn’t know the scheme very well, using talent likely very similar to what Syracuse has to work with today. The rest is history; Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country these days.

The other example I think we need to look at is Arizona State. Arizona State had a very bad defense in 2017. They couldn’t stop anyone. Herm Edwards decided the San Diego State 3-3-5 scheme was what they needed to turn things around. He hired Danny Gonzales, Rocky Long’s right hand guy, who had just been named the San Diego State DC at the start of 2017.

Danny served as the Arizona State DC for 2018 and 2019 (he just left to become the new HC at New Mexico).

Here are some metrics on defense for Arizona State showing what happened when the 3-3-5 was implemented.

2017
274.9 yards passing/game
176.5 yards rushing/game (5.0 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 32.8 (104th of 130)

2018
233.8 yards passing/game
171.5 yards rushing/game (4.5 ypc)
Points/G: 29.9 (59th of 130)

2019
268.2 yards passing/game
125.2 yards rushing/game (3.5 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 22.4 (35th of 130)

Just for comparison purposes, this is what the Syracuse defense did this season...

2019
261.5 yards passing/game
201.6 yards rushing/game (5.1 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 30.7 (88th of 130)

So I would expect modest decreases in yardage allowed per game but significant decreases in points allowed per game, that continue to get better over time.

You're amazing; thanks for all this info!

One of the Iowa State players said that other teams were trying to copy them, but the Iowa State DC was kind of a genius so they couldn't really. Someone else in the article said that you can't minor in the Iowa State defense and be successful, you have to major in it.

Well, Arnett has certainly majored in the 3-3-5, from player to long time assistant to DC. Let's hope that after all that time, some of the genius of Rocky Long has also rubbed off on him.

Go Orange!

 

[JRHEETER]

I’m really interested to see how our defense will come together with this system. Very excited to see it happen.

I will say I’ve never been in love with a defense that doesn’t put 4 up front however, this defense is a different wrinkle with the 5 dbs.

Cant wait now for the spring game and next season! There seems like there is life in this program again after a dismal and disappointing season!!!

 

[PAcuse]

I would expect to see a few bumps in the road but I think we got a young DC who learned from the master of the 3-3-5 and I have to imagine that is a huge edge for us and we should see a big improvement from a terrible defense.

 

[Trueblue25]

Our defensive talent is dominant when we control the run and force the ball in the air.

Ball goes up, theres a good chance Cisco, Iffy or Trill may come down with it

 

[Deleted member 7047]

I’m really interested to see how our defense will come together with this system. Very excited to see it happen.

I will say I’ve never been in love with a defense that doesn’t put 4 up front however, this defense is a different wrinkle with the 5 dbs.

Cant wait now for the spring game and next season! There seems like there is life in this program again after a dismal and disappointing season!!!

Yeah, it really is exciting! Dino made my weekend and, with the OC change (if it's true), has probably given me enough to make it through to the start of spring ball.

What I really like about this defense, as stated in multiple articles and posts, is that it allows you to compete without blue chip players.

 

[Franz69]

3-3-5 film reviews with Rocky Long. First link is a review of their defense after beating Stanford two years ago. He notes the difference in size and strength of Stanford OLine vs. SDSU DLine. Second link is film review after playing New Mexico:


Film Breakdown: SDSU Defense vs. New Mexico

 

[upperdeck]

always 2 parts to your D playing better too.. How good is your offense.. The better you play on offense the more one dimensional you make the other team by scoring but by also posessing the ball.

We have to stop going 3 and out, that means we can go up temp more too.

The D can play a bit better so we get the ball back and the offense plays a bit better so we dont give it back as fast

Better Oline, more running, better D . hand n hand

 

[TheCusian]

Our Aztec visitor mentioned that Long has said it takes 3-5 years to fully implement his 3-3-5 scheme. It has a lot to it and I believe to get the full scheme in place, that might be an accurate estimate.

However, what can we expect in terms of an immediate impact? Should we expect immediate improvement?

I think the answer is yes.

There isn’t a ton of data on this but let’s look at a couple of schools that implemented the 3-3-5 recently and how it impacted things.

Iowa State is one of the other schools that has implemented the 3-3-5. Matt Campbell and Dino were both hired at the same time, starting at their new schools in 2016. Both encountered problems with defense early on. Dino stayed with his DC Brian Ward and Brian’s preferred scheme for 3.5 years. Matt was less patient. After the bad defense in 2016, Iowa State started 2017 out poorly on defense as well, so early in the season, he and Iowa State DC Jon Heacock decided to implement the 3-3-5. It had an almost immediate impact.

How Iowa State became CFB's leader in defensive innovation

College and pro coaches alike made the trip to Iowa State this offseason to study defense, because the Cyclones have become a "petri dish" of defensive innovation.

247sports.com

And this is with a coach who didn’t know the scheme very well, using talent likely very similar to what Syracuse has to work with today. The rest is history; Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the country these days.

The other example I think we need to look at is Arizona State. Arizona State had a very bad defense in 2017. They couldn’t stop anyone. Herm Edwards decided the San Diego State 3-3-5 scheme was what they needed to turn things around. He hired Danny Gonzales, Rocky Long’s right hand guy, who had just been named the San Diego State DC at the start of 2017.

Danny served as the Arizona State DC for 2018 and 2019 (he just left to become the new HC at New Mexico).

Here are some metrics on defense for Arizona State showing what happened when the 3-3-5 was implemented.

2017
274.9 yards passing/game
176.5 yards rushing/game (5.0 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 32.8 (104th of 130)

2018
233.8 yards passing/game
171.5 yards rushing/game (4.5 ypc)
Points/G: 29.9 (59th of 130)

2019
268.2 yards passing/game
125.2 yards rushing/game (3.5 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 22.4 (35th of 130)

Just for comparison purposes, this is what the Syracuse defense did this season...

2019
261.5 yards passing/game
201.6 yards rushing/game (5.1 ypc)
Opp Pts/G: 30.7 (88th of 130)

So I would expect modest decreases in yardage allowed per game but significant decreases in points allowed per game, that continue to get better over time.

One thing to keep in mind will be how tempo and the resulting extra possessions affect things. We seemed to go away from tempo last season - I think - out of necessity.

This will affect numbers - but if the O takes a jump it won’t matter.

 

[upperdeck]

3-3-5 film reviews with Rocky Long. First link is a review of their defense after beating Stanford two years ago. He notes the difference in size and strength of Stanford OLine vs. SDSU DLine. Second link is film review after playing New Mexico:


Film Breakdown: SDSU Defense vs. New Mexico

the key in both of these is causing confusion.. in the first on the back blocks outside in instead of inside out and in the 2nd the QB doesnt see the coverage the back picks up the blitz late and the QB fails to throw to the wide open checkdown..

if you cant over power teams, you better confuse them.

 

[PhatOrange]

I’ll be good if we just don’t get steamrolled like md, BC etc did.

 

[Trueblue25]

It’s nice to see the football board recharged.

 

[JRHEETER]

It’s nice to see the football board recharged.

aint that the truth.

maybe we can all love each other again like we did in 2018

 

[SUskibum]

In the last 2 years (25 games) we gave up 40+ points 7 times, (3 of those times we gave up 50+)

If we can take that from 3-4 (1-2) to only 1-2 (0-1) then I would consider it a success in year one

I’m less worried about averages and more worried about reducing the amount of games that the defense virtually eliminates any chance of winning

Eventually the hope is the defense can win us a couple games a year, but I will settle for them to stop losing games for us first

 

[Trueblue25]

only a matter of possessions away from being 7-5 last year and 11-1 in 2018.

Hopefully the new coaches bring a killer 4th quarter instinct and ‘croot further useable depth.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I hate to say this, but we were giving Ward the side eye for a long time for a reason.

I think having a better coach with more proven success as DC will overcome whatever bumps we have with the schematic change, and overall our defense will be improved this season.

 

[Trueblue25]

Cali Award Committee’s spent the past several months researching what “reasonable expectations” means. Committing a lot of our resources to look into this groundbreaking theory.

 

[Eric15]

Not sure if this is helpful but 3-3-5 was always my preferred defense in Madden back in the day.

 

[All4SU]

I’ve been skeptical of the 3-3-5 ever since RichRod went to Michigan. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

[rrlbees]

aint that the truth.

maybe we can all love each other again like we did in 2018

I never liked you. Not even in 2018.

 

[TheCusian]

I’ve been skeptical of the 3-3-5 ever since RichRod went to Michigan. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Much of that hate was directed at Rich Rod in general and their love for more traditional B1G style of O and D.

We need to be innovative and different and have less moody booster types

 

[007]

Our defensive talent is dominant when we control the run and force the ball in the air.

Ball goes up, theres a good chance Cisco, Iffy or Trill may come down with it

Love you brother, but this take is way off base (even factoring in your hyper enthusiasm).
Nothing about the defense has been "dominant." When we "force the ball in the air" SU allowed 14.3 yards per completion, ranking 124th of 130 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

 

[Trueblue25]

Love you brother, but this take is way off base (even factoring in your hyper enthusiasm).
Nothing about the defense has been "dominant." When we "force the ball in the air" SU allowed 14.3 yards per completion, ranking 124th of 130 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision.

The talents there. Iffy, Trill and Cisco would be impact starters on any team in the ACC save maybe Clemson.

a lot of the yards given up in the air graduate with Cordy and Foster. I love CF too but 2019 could have been seen as a slight regression.