What is the long play in CFB?

[HtownOrange]

So as not to hijack other threads, this thread is intended to peaceably forecast what happens to CFB in the long term. As this is speculation, debate is encouraged, but let's keep it friendly and not personal...unless what you state pertains to Rutgers or Georgetown, they deserve our derision.

Facts (Feel free to add to or correct the following):
- The Big 12 and SEC TV deals end in 2031
- The B1G TV deal ends in 2034
- The ACC TV deal ends in 2036

There are several theories that I have seen pertaining to the "end goal". I use quotes as some believe this is the actual goal as developed by execs, conferences and schools in the smoke filled backrooms over a game of poker, while others think that the players (TV execs, conferences, schools) talk, they lack the control others believe they have.

General Theory 1:
The players are scheming to develop a separate league. Only X (24, 32, 40, 64, whatever) will be allowed in the final number to be elevated to the "premier league: in CFB, all others will remain where they are for all of eternity, or at least until something blows up that plan. There are derivatives of this theory wherein relegation (soccer style) will be included.

General Theory 2:
The teams are already set, with a few spots open, mostly dependent on ND joining the B1G. The B1G and SEC will be the only two conferences left standing, everyone else may get streaming deals.

General Theory 3:
The SEC and B1G will grow large enough to encompass the remaining teams with value, then the world ends for all other teams.

General Theory 4:
The government will step in and "save" the day. Obviously, the government will then proceed to screw up everything, but all will be included with possibly a few exceptions.

General Theory 5:
The players are not as powerful as they wish to be and business realities will force some major compromises to their dastardly plans. This includes the less hard core fans skipping out on the super duper league and streaming their own teams. Basically, ignoring the super league and screwing up all of the fantastical fantasies of endless streams of money. See any Rutgers fan site, all three fans believe this.

General Theory 6:
The powers that be will analyze everything and realize that a deal with all of D1 like the pro leagues have will be the best way forward. The plan is already outlined several times over, allows for rewarding the winners without cutting out the losers, and gives everyone a reasonable shot at winning it all someday.

General Theory 7:
Insert here

General Theory 8:
Insert here


Plainly, the above is an oversimplification of the matter. In reality, there are infinite possibilities as this is future and our only limitation is our own minds. And there are so many sub-theories which will affect the future. Basically, this is a mess and will not be an easy to solve problem.

My guess is that it will be a mixture of the above. I lean towards the realization by the broadcasters and streamers that it will be easier to combine together and present one deal to all conferences, much like the pro leagues do with some paring down the number of schools but keeping it sufficiently large enough to prevent government interference and to keep viewers happy.

What do you think? Feel free to develop your theory deeper. Honest debate will likely yield a solution that is close to what happens.

 

[NKR1978]

The blue bloods ultimately do their own thing. I can't imagine OSU loves sharing their $24,000,000 title appearance money with Purdue after watching ND walk away free and clear. I think that will be after 2031. I think that's the end game, but we'll still be able to play high level football in the ACC or Big12/ACC/B1G rejects conference.

 

[HtownOrange]

The blue bloods ultimately do their own thing. I can't imagine OSU loves sharing their $24,000,000 title appearance money with Purdue after watching ND walk away free and clear. I think that will be after 2031. I think that's the end game, but we'll still be able to play high level football in the ACC or Big12/ACC/B1G rejects conference.

How big is your blue blood league? Is it nationwide? Who is included (or if you prefer, define a blue blood)?

While I agree with your sentiment, it remains hard to see tOSU scheduling as tough as ND year in and year out. They like having Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers, et al. in the league for some easy games to balance out UM, PSU, and Mich. State. Similar to the SEC's scheduling easy the week prior to rivalry week.

 

[upperdeck]

It has taken NFL 60 yrs to get to a league with 30+ Teams. Even then the teams have come and gone.

If you go to even a 48 team CFB 75% of the people will lose interest over night. It becomes like college Lax or hockey where small pockets care. It will take a long time to get that back.

Relegation doesnt work becauase schedules matter to people too much. Unless you throw that out the window over night will people be happy that one year then are playing OSU/Mich/Ore and next yr they are playing Toledo/App st?

And what happens to those teams money wise when all the Donors leave instantly to a big school?

Soccer doesnt have 40-50 team leagues and without that the sport wont work.

How many SU fans will support the team for 40K of fans in league 6 while the work back up? Its one thing to support a team to win 10 games and a dream season. Quite another knowing even going 12-0 it will be 5 yrs before they play an important game again?

 

[dwilmont44]

Something like the NFL with 2 leagues.

The schools left out will try to form their own thing and it will die out fast.

 

[upperdeck]

The big boys are big for a reason.. But even in the SEC they still play 4 OC games and 3-5 others they should win 90% of the time. Look at this year with the bloated leagues and Ala/Mich fell out a More compressed big boy league means the odds of falling back are even bigger.

its one thing to not make a playoff and be 9-3. Quite another if they got 6-6 or 5-7 two or three years in a row when they cant make a schedule.

 

[upperdeck]

Something like the NFL with 2 leagues.

The schools left out will try to form their own thing and it will die out fast.

and if those die out then 75% of the college sports die as well

 

[HtownOrange]

It has taken NFL 60 yrs to get to a league with 30+ Teams. Even then the teams have come and gone.

If you go to even a 48 team CFB 75% of the people will lose interest over night. It becomes like college Lax or hockey where small pockets care. It will take a long time to get that back.

Relegation doesnt work becauase schedules matter to people too much. Unless you throw that out the window over night will people be happy that one year then are playing OSU/Mich/Ore and next yr they are playing Toledo/App st?

And what happens to those teams money wise when all the Donors leave instantly to a big school?

Soccer doesnt have 40-50 team leagues and without that the sport wont work.

How many SU fans will support the team for 40K of fans in league 6 while the work back up? Its one thing to support a team to win 10 games and a dream season. Quite another knowing even going 12-0 it will be 5 yrs before they play an important game again?

Good points, valid points. Every option I think of ends with a bad outcome unless they treat all of CFB with a pro-type TV deal where all teams get the same share from the deal.

I can see a smaller league, but as you say, too many fans will be alienated. I am in this camp, I watch Syracuse play. I catch a few games here and there but usually have my time committed elsewhere and cannot watch football all day Saturday. That lessens revenue for the networks and streamers. Let's be honest, SU v. Colgate will be watched by us on this site but it does not ring of national attention.

Relegation won't work. We are Americans, we like instant gratification and a shot at the top. We have no patience for a relegated team. You stated it better. Spot on regarding the money issue, no team can plan, build, develop when the revenue is cut from them as a relegated team.

So what happens?

 

[HtownOrange]

Something like the NFL with 2 leagues.

The schools left out will try to form their own thing and it will die out fast.

Can you expound on this? Do you mean 60 schools or another number?

The two league concept has merit if they are large enough. I have heard of having large conferences (leagues) with divisions more regionally aligned and a playoff built from there.

 

[Jcuse_44]

Simple answer. The SEC and Big ten will eat themselves and ruin college football for everyone else.

 

[HtownOrange]

Simple answer. The SEC and Big ten will eat themselves and ruin college football for everyone else.

After the B1G took the West Coast teams and hemmed in the SEC, I suspect that the SEC understands this now and realizes that they need victims, I mean non-conference opponents. They just don't know how to get from point A to point Z. Obviously, this is pure speculation but the SEC commissioner indicated several months ago something to this effect.

 

[PAcuse]

Would like to see it follow English Soccer league with promotions an demotions between things.
Most likely it will just be the B1G and SEC starting their own league with ND and getting whatever amount they want in a TV deal with the rest of the leagues fighting for pennies left.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Good points, valid points. Every option I think of ends with a bad outcome unless they treat all of CFB with a pro-type TV deal where all teams get the same share from the deal.

I can see a smaller league, but as you say, too many fans will be alienated. I am in this camp, I watch Syracuse play. I catch a few games here and there but usually have my time committed elsewhere and cannot watch football all day Saturday. That lessens revenue for the networks and streamers. Let's be honest, SU v. Colgate will be watched by us on this site but it does not ring of national attention.

Relegation won't work. We are Americans, we like instant gratification and a shot at the top. We have no patience for a relegated team. You stated it better. Spot on regarding the money issue, no team can plan, build, develop when the revenue is cut from them as a relegated team.

So what happens?

Relegation doesn’t work when you have a whole new roster every year.

 

[Newhouser]

SEC commish says we are forming a league. 65 million per year in budget with players as part time students.
We are capping at 32 teams and will share revenue based off performance and ratings. You have 3 days to decide.

 

[orangenauburn]

Clarity will come 18-24 months before those agreements expire.

Who the Big Ten and SEC try to poach from Big12, if any, will indicate future intentions.

I'm waiting for the day when the Big Ten tries to big boy the SEC and poach one of their teams.

I can see the Big 12 losing a couple programs in 2031, which then kicks in to motion what happens elsewhere in our neck of the woods (ACC).

I can also see a scenario where an agreement is in place for schools x,y,z to announce intentions to leave ACC at the end of the agreement and become defacto free agent programs, while already knowing full well where they are landing.

 

[HtownOrange]

Relegation doesn’t work when you have a whole new roster every year.

Agreed. To develop your point, it is unlikely a key player will consider a relegated team and a relegated team no longer can afford the NIL because their revenue was slashed when they were relegated.

 

[HtownOrange]

SEC commish says we are forming a league. 65 million per year in budget with players as part time students.
We are capping at 32 teams and will share revenue based off performance and ratings. You have 3 days to decide.

Is 32 teams sufficient? Will it cover enough of CFB fans? Does this league apply to all sports?

 

[HtownOrange]

Clarity will come 18-24 months before those agreements expire.

Who the Big Ten and SEC try to poach from Big12, if any, will indicate future intentions.

I'm waiting for the day when the Big Ten tries to big boy the SEC and poach one of their teams.

I can see the Big 12 losing a couple programs in 2031, which then kicks in to motion what happens elsewhere in our neck of the woods (ACC).

I can also see a scenario where an agreement is in place for schools x,y,z to announce intentions to leave ACC at the end of the agreement and become defacto free agent programs, while already knowing full well where they are landing.

Who do you see being poached from the Big 12? If the new model is that a team in a state does not carry the entire state, but is based on the fans/viewership, which Big12 teams lead the way?

I can see your last paragraph happening, at least as an open secret if no official notice is provided. This is partly why I am personally against any ACC team taking a cut in revenue as it heavily favors FSU and Clemson which begs the question, “Why subsidize their exit?” I can agree with some performance based incentives, I.e. a Larger share of the post season revenue each team generates. I don’t favor a viewership model because that is already heavily skewed and is a form of relegation. Teams at the bottom don’t get the better time slots and channels/streamers. The favored teams cannot be favored without the canon fodder to beat up on. That is why the B1G and SEC models work.

 

[orangenauburn]

Who do you see being poached from the Big 12? If the new model is that a team in a state does not carry the entire state, but is based on the fans/viewership, which Big12 teams lead the way?

I can see your last paragraph happening, at least as an open secret if no official notice is provided. This is partly why I am personally against any ACC team taking a cut in revenue as it heavily favors FSU and Clemson which begs the question, “Why subsidize their exit?” I can agree with some performance based incentives, I.e. a Larger share of the post season revenue each team generates. I don’t favor a viewership model because that is already heavily skewed and is a form of relegation. Teams at the bottom don’t get the better time slots and channels/streamers. The favored teams cannot be favored without the canon fodder to beat up on. That is why the B1G and SEC models work.

The only two I could see in play from Big 12 are Kansas and West Virginia.

Iowa State has a recency bias in some football success. Kansas State isn't more attractive than Kansas.

The rest would be shut down by in state rivals.

Which is why I said if there isn't any placement moves towards the Big 12 by SEC / Big Ten when the Big 12 agreement expires, then that's probably Syracuse best option come 2036, unless we are blessed and lucky enough to get poached by Big Ten or SEC (very very unlikely).

 

[HtownOrange]

The only two I could see in play from Big 12 are Kansas and West Virginia.

Iowa State has a recency bias in some football success. Kansas State isn't more attractive than Kansas.

The rest would be shut down by in state rivals.

Which is why I said if there isn't any placement moves towards the Big 12 by SEC / Big Ten when the Big 12 agreement expires, then that's probably Syracuse best option come 2036, unless we are blessed and lucky enough to get poached by Big Ten or SEC (very very unlikely).

Ithink the only add to Kansas and WVU would be BYU. I think Utah does less in the state and if it weren’t for Urban Meyer most CFB fans would barely know Utah has a team. BYU carries more fans in Utah and has some following out of state. I don’t see any other team of significant value. I am not convinced the Arizona schools have much to offer.

To your last comment, I can see an hypothetical with ESPN dumping some dead weight from the ACC, merging the remaining ACC with the SEC, and forming a giant conference. This keeps ESPN relevant in the populous north east and does not force ESPN into becoming a regional network for the SEC. There is too much value in the northeast to write it off.

I also can see where the SEC refuses to a giant merger, thus ESPn is willing to pay for the ACC at a lesser rate than the SEC but more than the remaining FBS conferences, the solid third conference.

Regardless, I can see the B1G and Fox wanting SU and Pitt if they resurge so as to effectively push ESPN out of the northeast and make it a southern, regional network in college sports. I can also see PSU and Maryland wanting them, too.

 

[Newhouser]

Is 32 teams sufficient? Will it cover enough of CFB fans? Does this league apply to all sports?

I think football will be it's own entity and it will be something divisible by four. Also I think it covers enough CFB and gambling fans. I fear for those who opt out and what non fan will watch.

 

[HtownOrange]

I think football will be it's own entity and it will be something divisible by four. Also I think it covers enough CFB and gambling fans. I fear for those who opt out and what non fan will watch.

This is a possibility that many share. This is probably the simplest solution, at least on paper. Though, I think you would need more than 32 teams, indeed, the SEC and B1G already combine to exceed that number.

I have not been able to reason out how CFB can be isolated and comply with Title IX, NIL, etc. This is why I remain skeptic of this solution. I don’t see a clean break if a team is associated with a school and the teams use student athletes. I am open to the idea, though I want more proof of concept before I buy into it.

 

[Cusefan69]

The next sequence of contract renewals goes Big10, Big12, Sec and then ACC. My guess is the Big 12 is potentially in for a rude awakening. Fox is not losing control of their main asset the B10. I could see them siphoning off funds that would have been for Big12 to help cover the increase for Big10. Once that happens, a few schools may get absorbed from the Big12 into Sec and B10. ESPN will have to do the same for the SEC, further hurting B12. Behind the scenes negotiations will be happening with ACC schools starting in 2033 and at that point programs will make leaps to B10 and SEC. I think Syracuse gets an invite to one of them because they will help fill area divisions for both B10 and SEC. Funds from dead B12 and ACC will help buffer those SEC and B10 additions. Side note: once southerners see their climate getting hotter and hotter and more volatile, I sincerely believe you will see people moving up north into northern states. It's not happening now but I think we will see it happen 10 years from now. This isn't a political statement, just a science statement by the way.

 

[richmondcuse03]

The next sequence of contract renewals goes Big10, Big12, Sec and then ACC. My guess is the Big 12 is potentially in for a rude awakening. Fox is not losing control of their main asset the B10. I could see them siphoning off funds that would have been for Big12 to help cover the increase for Big10. Once that happens, a few schools may get absorbed from the Big12 into Sec and B10. ESPN will have to do the same for the SEC, further hurting B12. Behind the scenes negotiations will be happening with ACC schools starting in 2033 and at that point programs will make leaps to B10 and SEC. I think Syracuse gets an invite to one of them because they will help fill area divisions for both B10 and SEC. Funds from dead B12 and ACC will help buffer those SEC and B10 additions. Side note: once southerners see their climate getting hotter and hotter and more volatile, I sincerely believe you will see people moving up north into northern states. It's not happening now but I think we will see it happen 10 years from now. This isn't a political statement, just a science statement by the way.

It's also a matter of water access too. The best thing going for the rust belt is proximity to fresh water. I think long term it helps the Big 10 the most (at least the original corridor) and may be a lifeline for western NY too. water rights will be a massive issue over the next 10 to 30 years, especially for data center build outs and cooling projects. Honestly building data centers in Texas right now without some major breakthroughs in cooling technology or water agreements from a northern state is foolish IMO.

 

[Hoo's That]

I've long believed that the end game is that class attendance is voluntary (spelled "forbidden") for the players in an entity outside the NCAA for football, both basketball teams, and possibly baseball/softball. There will be something like 20-32 teams chosen from the bluebloods, and there will be surprises among which schools aren't chosen and which opt out. The remaining schools will be in a situation somewhere between what we have now and FCS, with a number of FBS schools returning to FCS because the money will no longer be there. It will be a mixed bag of which "have-nots" are willing to play the minor-leaguers as OOC games for the money and those who choose never to play teams of non-students.

Some of the teams will be owned by the schools just as the Universities in Mexico City (Pumas) and Nuevo Laredo (Tigres) own teams of non-students in the top league of Mexican soccer and some of them will be owned by private entities who will pay rights fees to the universities to have everything seen on game days now. For the fans of Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, and LSU (as examples), what they experience today will be what they seamlessly experience in the future league.