What will it take us to win the NCAA tournament? | Page 2 | Syracusefan.com

What will it take us to win the NCAA tournament?

Six point guards in six years.

Probably not a recipe for success.

I think your "point" is a very good one. I think UNC's lack of a true pg hurt them against Nova. They had plenty of mismatches down low to exploit but North Carolina's guards couldn't get the ball to them. Like us, they have shooting guards they were using as point guards but no true point guard. Nova had a true PG and you could see the difference.
 
Yes you are correct. I had that 1996 Kentucky team with 7. Double checked and it should be 8. Those were 8 solid NBA pros - Nazr Mohammed is still playing I think - up against John Wallace, the only SU pro. If SU had managed to win that game, it would have been a massive upset. Somebody noted the number should be 9. Could be right, if another player was drafted and did not play.

Don't agree with your comment "no way to have 4+ pro's on a team anymore" Here are the numbers for the last decade.

2006 - Florida 5
2007 - Florida 6
2008 - Kansas 6
2009 - North Carolina 5
2010 - Duke 6
2011 - Connecticut 3
2012 - Kentucky 6
2013 - Louisville 4
2014 - Connecticut 1
2015 - Duke 3

That is an average of 5.0/yr. Not going down. As for 2016, UNC had 6 McDAAs and probably a similar number will turn out to be NBA Pros. Nova - we have to wait and see.

I'm talking about modern and I guess that means this decade because the pace of this one and done culture went into hyper mode since about 2010. In that timeframe there have been zero nonUK teams with more than 4 pros win it. And all the UK teams in that period had at least 4 pros I would guess, but they can't convert that into championships like one might expect.
 
I'm talking about modern and I guess that means this decade because the pace of this one and done culture went into hyper mode since about 2010. In that timeframe there have been zero nonUK teams with more than 4 pros win it. And all the UK teams in that period had at least 4 pros I would guess, but they can't convert that into championships like one might expect.

Interesting comment and it opens up a whole new area for consideration. For example, are you better off in March fielding a solid, experienced, but flawed senior like Trevor Cooney or a flawed one and done like Chris McCullough? (Can't use Gbinije as he will get drafted). The data still seems to show you need the McCullough's to beat Duke, UK and UNC. The Cooney's will give you a good run, but won't push you over the top.

I definitely would prefer 5 Gbinije level players (4 year - top level - 4 Star recruits) to 5 McCullough level players. That is what I think we saw this year with Nova. Nova may have redefined the model for the next decade.
 
Some of you act like we are soooo far away. We are right there knocking on the door. We had 2 down years, but bounced back rather nicely with a strong tournament this year, but people still aren't satisfied. I don't think we will be satisfied until we finally win a second title.

We've made the final four twice since 08-09. We've gotten at least to the sweet 16 5 times in that span and the elite 8 three times. Were some of those teams that had successful postseason runs weaker than others? Yes, but that just shows the amount of luck in these tournaments.

I expect us to continue to knock on the door in the near future. We are getting great talent, and guys that buy into the system, but there is some luck involved. I think we are to the point now where with all the success we have had over the past 7 years or so, the only way we are going to be happy as a fan base is if we win it all.
 
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Some of you act like we are soooo far away. We are right there knocking on the door. We had 2 town years, but bounced back rather nicely with a strong tournament this year, but people still aren't satisfied. I don't think we will be satisfied until we finally win a second title.

We've made the final four twice since 08-09. We've gotten at least to the sweet 16 5 times in that span and the elite 8 three times. We're some of those teams that had successful postseason runs weaker than others? Yes, but that just shows the amount of luck in these tournaments.

I expect us to continue to knock on the door in the near future. We are getting great talent, and guys that buy into the system, but there is some luck involved. I think we are to the point now where with all the success we have had over the past 7 years or so, the only way we are going to be happy as a fan base is if we win it all.
I doubt that would make the fanbase happy. We just had a better tournament than any 10 seed ever has and we're still seeing hand wringing. Next title we win people will bemoan not going back to back.
 
Interesting comment and it opens up a whole new area for consideration. For example, are you better off in March fielding a solid, experienced, but flawed senior like Trevor Cooney or a flawed one and done like Chris McCullough? (Can't use Gbinije as he will get drafted). The data still seems to show you need the McCullough's to beat Duke, UK and UNC. The Cooney's will give you a good run, but won't push you over the top.

I definitely would prefer 5 Gbinije level players (4 year - top level - 4 Star recruits) to 5 McCullough level players. That is what I think we saw this year with Nova. Nova may have redefined the model for the next decade.

I'm not going to claim credit for predicting our FF run, but I felt that we would be much much better than everyone thought this year because we had two 5th year seniors in the back court. The regular season was very uneven, but that experience really helped this team in March. It is probably the new model: two really talented but somewhat raw freshmen doing a huge amount of contribution, but two experienced mature guys handling the ball most of the time, managing the game, and managing the team throughout the year. UNC, Villanova, and Syracuse seemed to generally be built like this with the mix of senior leadership, raw young players, (and an experienced coach)
 
Shooting better than mid 30's% in the tournament. Our defense has been great, we just have been offensively challenged for years now.
 
We are extremely close to winning it all.

Bringing everyone back and keeping everyone healthy is 90% if the job.

If that happens, SU will be one of maybe 5 or 6 legit title contenders.

Emerging as the champ from that group takes luck. You have to hope Syracuse is hitting shots and you have to hope they don't run into a juggernaut who is hitting 50% from 3 as Nova did this year.
 
I'm not going to claim credit for predicting our FF run, but I felt that we would be much much better than everyone thought this year because we had two 5th year seniors in the back court. The regular season was very uneven, but that experience really helped this team in March. It is probably the new model: two really talented but somewhat raw freshmen doing a huge amount of contribution, but two experienced mature guys handling the ball most of the time, managing the game, and managing the team throughout the year. UNC, Villanova, and Syracuse seemed to generally be built like this with the mix of senior leadership, raw young players, (and an experienced coach)

If your goal is 2 seasoned guys in the backcourt, then you are talking of 4 year cycles for us at best. I hear we are now losing our sitting 4 year - 4 Star - PG. Next year's PG may be a 1 and done. Nobody else on the horizon.

In JB's 40 years, he has only had 4 legit 1 and dones. We are not serious contestants in that market. We keep trying to pull in the Gbinije types - really good, but not leavers. That way the cycle should continue without gaps. Hard to do though. It's not a buffet. Competition in recruiting is tough and is mostly about compromises.

Next year in our current cycle the offense will be awesome, with the backcourt of Howard and Battle a work in progress. Maybe by March we will be competitive again. Hope so. Should be fun.
 
Still, to our Hall-of-Famer's credit, we have made two Final Fours since 2013 in spite of these offensive woes. Our coaching and defense can help us get to that level again. Unfortunately, a defense alone can't win a title. A better offense is the key to getting to the next level. A better offense with skilled players running it, that is.

JB's ego is tied to the defense, he doesn't give a crap about offense anymore. He's the Buddy Ryan of college hoops.
 
It would take a better half-court offensive design combined with players possessing stronger fundamental skills.

The ability to create better scoring opportunities more consistently against the toughest teams would allow our defense to be even more potent. If we scored more, other teams would be forced to produce more points. That's tough to do when we have a Final Four defense like we did in 2013 and in the tournament this season (though our press was really as important this year in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 as the zone). Unfortunately, our half-court offenses were inconsistent at best both seasons, and our lack of execution hurt us against teams with really good talent.

Our heavy reliance on random ball screens as our main offensive weapon produces poor spacing, little ball movement, and little off-ball player movement. This makes defending us easy, especially for the solid-to-outstanding defensive teams that are likely to populate the Final Four most seasons. When teams take away our ball-screen offense, we essentially counter with the pin-down screen plays and the Double Fist (double high ball screen) plays. Those plays are fine, but if a defense takes away the initial option(s) on them, we are right back to the random ball screens. The defense wins.

An offense with better spacing, more actions (back screens, flare screens, backdoor cuts, zipper cuts), and an actual inside presence (post-ups) that can be adapted for year-to-year personnel changes would help. For example, Villanova runs a 4-out 1-in motion that stresses ball screens and dribble penetration, but also includes backdoor cuts, screening away for teammates, post-ups with "rip" action (two basket cuts in succession with the other two players filling behind the cuts), and high-low action. The offense builds all of this into the design, and players are taught to "take their lane" based on what the defense takes away. Watching Nova's players execute it makes me salivate at the thought of what G, Malachi, Trevor, and Lydon could do in it.

Do we have to run Villanova's offense? No. But we need an offense that works in some way like theirs: one that uses a series of actions that allows our players to take advantage of defenses no matter how they play. Bill Self's High-Low Offense is another example of such an offense, though dribble penetration can be limited in it. My favorite multifaceted offense (other than Nova's) is one that would be tough to run in college because it takes a full year for players to really get comfortable running it: Gregg Popovich's Motion. It is my favorite because, as an option-based motion, defenses can't take away all of the options once players learn them. The offense dictates the action based on how the defense attempts to do so.

My point is that these offenses exist, and teams can be/have been successful in the half-court running them. Despite this, our half-court offense continues to lack rhythm and structure season to season. As much as I respect him, Coach Boeheim has always preferred the "simple" on offense, sometimes to the detriment of the "good." His philosophy seems even more pronounced the last few seasons. However, coaches can teach an offense with multiple actions that is still built on simple, fundamental concepts.

Still, to our Hall-of-Famer's credit, we have made two Final Fours since 2013 in spite of these offensive woes. Our coaching and defense can help us get to that level again. Unfortunately, a defense alone can't win a title. A better offense is the key to getting to the next level. A better offense with skilled players running it, that is.
I love UVAs circle motion or mover blocker motion. You must have two competent bigs but like you said, the way the defense guards UVA, dictates what they do offensively. I learned more about their offense in 2013 during the summer when I worked a camp there. Bennett had a coaches meeting and told us all about it and how they run it. AMAZING to learn all the counters they have for it for how they are being guarded. I 100% agree our offense needs to change. At least go to the spread pick and roll like what A LOT of NBA teams are doing that only have one center. Villanova ran it a lot when they had Ochefu in. Set a side ball screen- roll hard- and have the corner guard lift when the ball handler is going away from you off the pick. We just set a ball screen and stand. Just not a lot of action and we are rarely in advantageous positions.
 
gonna have to learn to play more than zone. 100% zone ain't winning no championships.
trunk monkey saved our butts in 2003 against okla st and advanced us to the final 4 this year.
defensive flexibility . that needs to be our new key word.
 
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I love UVAs circle motion or mover blocker motion. You must have two competent bigs but like you said, the way the defense guards UVA, dictates what they do offensively. I learned more about their offense in 2013 during the summer when I worked a camp there. Bennett had a coaches meeting and told us all about it and how they run it. AMAZING to learn all the counters they have for it for how they are being guarded. I 100% agree our offense needs to change. At least go to the spread pick and roll like what A LOT of NBA teams are doing that only have one center. Villanova ran it a lot when they had Ochefu in. Set a side ball screen- roll hard- and have the corner guard lift when the ball handler is going away from you off the pick. We just set a ball screen and stand. Just not a lot of action and we are rarely in advantageous positions.

I love the mover-blocker offense, too. It's not flashy, but if you can teach fundamentals, players with less athleticism can thrive in it. Strong athletes could really star in it, but many coaches would be too afraid that the ball wouldn't end up in their hands enough to actually employ it with such talent. You're spot-on (not shockingly, given that you learned it from Coach Bennett himself--that had to be cool) about its ability to counter defensive actions. Moreover, Dick Bennett used to run variations of the offense to counter specific defensive philosophies or when he had certain types of players. For example, he had a "top/bottom" version where the one blocker (usually a player that we would now likely call a "stretch 4") only set screens above the free-throw line, and the other blocker only set screens below it. Did Tony discuss such variations? I can't recall seeing them in his time at UVA, but he may not have needed to use it much given the players he has had.

What's great about Villanova's ball screens is that they are built into their motion naturally. Players know the situations in which they should look to ball screen. Coach Wright says that the "big" in the slot position should always look to set a screen for the "small" in the opposite slot. The screen is often a ball screen because the ball is often in a small's hands in that position. Should that not present a good scoring chance, they can flow right into other actions within their motion.

Our players set ball screens more randomly, and they often wind up looking disjointed. As a result, as you correctly point out, there is too much standing around that occurs in our offense. That cut off a screen/replace behind action that you mention is a fundamental offensive concept, one of many our offense too often ignores. I agree that it should be used more.
 
So our fans want to adopt an offense of a team that consistently underperforms in March? Got it. Great plan.
 
Need the top talent that hold good potential to stick around, and some half court offense.
 

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