When to go for the 2-point conversion

[SU94]

Curious to hear everyone's assessment of this football scoring hypothetical ...

So a team is down 22-7 and scores 5 minutes into the 4th quarter.
To be more specific. they score a TD, so the score is now 22-13.
Accepted protocol is that they kick the P.A.T. to get within a single score (down 8).
Right?

Well I offer this…

Why not go for 2 and attempt to get within 7 points. If you convert, … great!

If you don’t convert, at least you have 10 minutes knowing that you need (at least) two scores to win/tie.

Under this model, at least you can adjust your play calling accordingly (use of timeouts, no-huddle, more risk/reward on defense, onside kick, etc.).

Let’s put it this way, …

• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion EARLY and have 10 minutes to react accordingly or
• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion LATE and have (I am admittedly making this up) 90 seconds to react accordingly?

To me, this is a no-brainer and I think the accepted answer is nonsensical.

 

[orangenauburn]

Answer:

Every damn time!

 

[Sudano]

Curious to hear everyone's assessment of this football scoring hypothetical ...

So a team is down 22-7 and scores 5 minutes into the 4th quarter.
To be more specific. they score a TD, so the score is now 22-13.
Accepted protocol is that they kick the P.A.T. to get within a single score (down 8).
Right?

Well I offer this…

Why not go for 2 and attempt to get within 7 points. If you convert, … great!

If you don’t convert, at least you have 10 minutes knowing that you need (at least) two scores to win/tie.

Under this model, at least you can adjust your play calling accordingly (use of timeouts, no-huddle, more risk/reward on defense, onside kick, etc.).

Let’s put it this way, …

• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion EARLY and have 10 minutes to react accordingly or
• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion LATE and have (I am admittedly making this up) 90 seconds to react accordingly?

To me, this is a no-brainer and I think the accepted answer is nonsensical.

Unless someone knows exactly how the game plays out you take the college XP 95% rather than go for 2 with a success rate of 40% of the time.
Your assumption is wrong because it assumes no more scoring by both teams. Take the point then go try to score more points than your opponent in the remaining 10 minutes.
You may never need to go for 2 with another touchdown and field goal in the last 10 minutes.
The only way I go for 2 that early if the flow of the game has changed so much that a fake or you have a significant match up advantage where you figured out a way to exploit some advantage where you feel your 40% is now 70% based on the specifics of that time of your specific game and how its playing out. Great coaches have a feel when and when not to adjust the percentages in your favor. Hopefully Dino has that feel.

 

[DPCuse]

I think the common thinking is that if you kick the PAT to get to 8, you put pressure on the other team because you are only down by one score. It extends the game by keeping you within 8. If you miss the PAT, you are 9 out and are 2 scores down. So even a pick 6 is no biggie. No sure I agree but that's the thinking.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Like most things if you make it and win the game - people will be for it and you'll be praised. If you miss and lose the game by a point or 2 - you will be crucified.

 

[orange79]

IMO, always get it to a one possession game. So in your scenario, kick the point to make it an 8 point game.

 

[SU94]

IMO, always get it to a one possession game. So in your scenario, kick the point to make it an 8 point game.

But why? Gimme a good reason. Honestly, I am asking for someone to reply with a smart answer, deeper that "get it to a one-possession game."

The odds of converting the 2-pointer are essentially equal no matter if I go for it on the first or subsequent touchdown.
(In fact, I might be able to argue that I have a slight going for it the first time because, from the view point of the the opposing defense, the game in not yet on the line. But this is NOT my main argument)

So, why not go for 2 after the first time (when down 22-13)? Then if I do not convert, I have "ample" time to adjust my game plan the last ~10 minutes of the game. I need (at least) two scores, how am I going to accomplish this? Well, I can use the onside kick, the hurry-up offense, pass almost every down, use timeouts efficiently, lots of blitzes, inform my linebackers to go for strips, etc.).

But, if I go with convention ("extend the game" or "make it a one-score game") --- get the game to 22-14, then score late, in this instance get within 22-20 with 10 seconds left --- and I go for 2 and and fail to convert ... the game is over. No time for adjustments. Game's over.

Convention is wrong.

 

[orange79]

But why? Gimme a good reason. Honestly, I am asking for someone to reply with a smart answer, deeper that "get it to a one-possession game."

The odds of converting the 2-pointer are essentially equal no matter if I go for it on the first or subsequent touchdown.
(In fact, I might be able to argue that I have a slight going for it the first time because, from the view point of the the opposing defense, the game in not yet on the line. But this is NOT my main argument)

So, why not go for 2 after the first time (when down 22-13)? Then if I do not convert, I have "ample" time to adjust my game plan the last ~10 minutes of the game. I need (at least) two scores, how am I going to accomplish this? Well, I can use the onside kick, the hurry-up offense, pass almost every down, use timeouts efficiently, lots of blitzes, inform my linebackers to go for strips, etc.).

But, if I go with convention ("extend the game" or "make it a one-score game") --- get the game to 22-14, then score late, in this instance get within 22-20 with 10 seconds left --- and I go for 2 and and fail to convert ... the game is over. No time for adjustments. Game's over.

Convention is wrong.

In this case, convention is not wrong, IMO. If I were a coach, I would always want to reduce the number of possessions I needed to tie/take the lead. I would much rather not go for two until I have to - it's more difficult. 'Ample time' can go right out the window if the opposing team put together a 15 play 6/7/8 minute drive. It's how the Giants used to beat people ( ). You can't score if you don't have the ball. If that happens, you have little time left and still need two possessions. IF you can score, you most likely would need an onside kick. This year, onside kicks are successful 14% of the time (7/50).

 

[skurey]

You should always go for 2 in that spot. 8 points is not a one possession game even though many will claim it is.

 

[Finwad32]

22 is not a finite number, it's a variable. You don't play to match 22 unless you absolutely have to. For example, if time's gone and you have to tie. You do what gives you the best chance to score. If I make xp's 95% of the time and I'm 40% from 2, then I'm going to kick xp's, I'll score more points kicking xp's by those percentages.

 

[721Comstock]

You should always go for 2 in that spot. 8 points is not a one possession game even though many will claim it is.

Uh, YES it IS a one possession game.

"Many" won't claim that - just those who understand math.
By your reasoning, 7 points is also not a one possession game. And yet, nobody would ever claim that.

 

[DPCuse]

But why? Gimme a good reason. Honestly, I am asking for someone to reply with a smart answer, deeper that "get it to a one-possession game."

The odds of converting the 2-pointer are essentially equal no matter if I go for it on the first or subsequent touchdown.
(In fact, I might be able to argue that I have a slight going for it the first time because, from the view point of the the opposing defense, the game in not yet on the line. But this is NOT my main argument)

So, why not go for 2 after the first time (when down 22-13)? Then if I do not convert, I have "ample" time to adjust my game plan the last ~10 minutes of the game. I need (at least) two scores, how am I going to accomplish this? Well, I can use the onside kick, the hurry-up offense, pass almost every down, use timeouts efficiently, lots of blitzes, inform my linebackers to go for strips, etc.).

But, if I go with convention ("extend the game" or "make it a one-score game") --- get the game to 22-14, then score late, in this instance get within 22-20 with 10 seconds left --- and I go for 2 and and fail to convert ... the game is over. No time for adjustments. Game's over.

Convention is wrong.

Football coaches are very conservative. If you kick the PAT and make it a one score game (8 points), the opposing coach may get conservative with his play calling and run the ball knowing that one bad pass could cost him. That makes them easier to defend. Getting it to 8 points also gives your team momentum knowing that they are just one score down. If they are 2 scores down, they may feel a bit deflated. You want to get it to 1 score as early as possible to get momentum on your side.

 

[CU44SE]

I kick the XP making it a one possession game. You always want to extend the game and put more pressure on the other team to execute. Pressure and momentum are a beautiful thing. Hypothetically if you go for 2 earlier and miss, making it a 2 possession game you give the other team confidence and momentum and take it away from your own team. If you miss you may deflate your own teams belief that a come back is possibly.

 

[SU94]

22 is not a finite number, it's a variable. You don't play to match 22 unless you absolutely have to. For example, if time's gone and you have to tie. You do what gives you the best chance to score. If I make xp's 95% of the time and I'm 40% from 2, then I'm going to kick xp's, I'll score more points kicking xp's by those percentages.

Well, you do have a point there. In the middle of the 3rd quarter, yes, I agree. (perhaps my original post should have reflected down 22-7, score a TD with 6 minutes remaining, should I go for 2?)

But honestly, if I am the HC of a team and I've had my tail kicked for 3+ quarters, and I am down 22-7, I would obviously love to win the game, but in reality I am likely resigning myself to the fact that I have to tie this thing up, start fresh in OT. (hey, maybe my best tact is to go for 2 twice!).

If you look at all of the replies in this thread (and I appreciate anyone who took the time!), no one has offered anything concrete. All the answers contain intangibles like "confidence," let the other coach "play conservative," "momentum," "pressure," and "extend the game."

Do intangibles exist? Perhaps. But so did clutch hitting in baseball, until it was proven to be false.

I see no reason not to go for 2 points after the first touchdown.

 

[Cheriehoop]

I would imagine a team's decision whether to go for a 2 point conversion would somewhat depend on their "confidence", "experience" in being successful. If you're the Steelers or Titans I bet you'd go for it more than the Seattle Seahawks or Ravens. We're currently seeing that teams will risk to "go for it" much more now that extra points are more difficult. As teams practice it and seeing other team's success will make it a more viable part of more team's offense to decide to go for it to get back into a game.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-two-point-conversion-statistics/2015/

 

[SUMBA]

Curious to hear everyone's assessment of this football scoring hypothetical ...

So a team is down 22-7 and scores 5 minutes into the 4th quarter.
To be more specific. they score a TD, so the score is now 22-13.
Accepted protocol is that they kick the P.A.T. to get within a single score (down 8).
Right?

Well I offer this…

Why not go for 2 and attempt to get within 7 points. If you convert, … great!

If you don’t convert, at least you have 10 minutes knowing that you need (at least) two scores to win/tie.

Under this model, at least you can adjust your play calling accordingly (use of timeouts, no-huddle, more risk/reward on defense, onside kick, etc.).

Let’s put it this way, …

• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion EARLY and have 10 minutes to react accordingly or
• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion LATE and have (I am admittedly making this up) 90 seconds to react accordingly?

To me, this is a no-brainer and I think the accepted answer is nonsensical.

According to the Vermeil conversion chart, the team should go for 2 when trailing by nine. However, the chart does not take into account time left in the game. The chart becomes more relevant when the potential number of possessions dwindles. With 10 minutes left, I think most coaches would kick the extra point.

 

[JoeSU]

Curious to hear everyone's assessment of this football scoring hypothetical ...

So a team is down 22-7 and scores 5 minutes into the 4th quarter.
To be more specific. they score a TD, so the score is now 22-13.
Accepted protocol is that they kick the P.A.T. to get within a single score (down 8).
Right?

Well I offer this…

Why not go for 2 and attempt to get within 7 points. If you convert, … great!

If you don’t convert, at least you have 10 minutes knowing that you need (at least) two scores to win/tie.

Under this model, at least you can adjust your play calling accordingly (use of timeouts, no-huddle, more risk/reward on defense, onside kick, etc.).

Let’s put it this way, …

• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion EARLY and have 10 minutes to react accordingly or
• Is it better to miss the 2-point conversion LATE and have (I am admittedly making this up) 90 seconds to react accordingly?

To me, this is a no-brainer and I think the accepted answer is nonsensical.

I think another big consideration in favor of kicking the XP is that your offense has only managed to score 2 TDs in the first 50 minutes. If you don't make the 2 pt. conversion, what are the odds that you'll be able to score twice in the remaining 10 minutes (which will be more like 7-8 minutes once you get the ball back after the ensuing KO)?

 

[skurey]

Uh, YES it IS a one possession game.

"Many" won't claim that - just those who understand math.
By your reasoning, 7 points is also not a one possession game. And yet, nobody would ever claim that.

Um no you have a 99% of making an XP vs 40-50% chance of converting a 2 pt conversion. 6 points and 50% chance at the other 2 is not a one possession game.

 

[Pyle]

You take the points with that much time left. Every single time.

Why? Because it's likely the other team isn't done scoring, or at least you can't assume that they are so you don't leave points on the board.

 

[Pyle]

I think another big consideration in favor of kicking the XP is that your offense has only managed to score 2 TDs in the first 50 minutes. If you don't make the 2 pt. conversion, what are the odds that you'll be able to score twice in the remaining 10 minutes (which will be more like 7-8 minutes once you get the ball back after the ensuing KO)?

You've only scored twice but the reason why you just got that 2nd score could be any number of factors including shift in defensive scheme to play bend no break, DL getting tired so bigger holes and more time for you QB to find open receivers. You can also get a defensive/ST score at any time. You take any points you can get until there comes a time when you know what you need to get, i.e. 2 min left in the game down by 8.

 

[MSOrange]

Um no you have a 99% of making an XP vs 40-50% chance of converting a 2 pt conversion. 6 points and 50% chance at the other 2 is not a one possession game.

Yes but you don't need to start a whole new possession to get an opportunity to try the two point conversion.

 

[Pyle]

Here's the other thing, let's sort of assume that both defenses are gassed and it becomes an offensive clinic. Your defense bends but doesn't break allowing 2 more FGs, You tie the game with 2 TDs/XPs, if you miss a conversion, you now either have to make it on the other TD, or get 3 possessions instead of 2. Is it likely? Just as likely as both not scoring another point. There is no probability table that takes into account, human decisions, fatigue, momentum, etc.

 

[skurey]

Yes but you don't need to start a whole new possession to get an opportunity to try the two point conversion.

But 50% of the time (or whatever the actual number is) you will need another possession. You need to account for that and plan ahead.

 

[CU44SE]

Hmm, Sean Payton just took the XP as I expected. You don't chase points untill you absolutely have to.

 

[obliterata]

You've got to kick the extra point and make it a one possession game at 22-14.

If you go for 2 and score (22-15) you have a better chance of winning than you do at 22-14 but it isn't worth the risk of failing - fail and it's 22-13 and you have to score twice (with one being a touchdown) to win.