When to go for the 2-point conversion

[dollarbill44]

In Sunday's Baltimore/Cleveland game John Harbaugh got the TD to close it 9 with about 10:00 left and went for the 2.

And didn't get it, which ended up being a rather important decision.

 

[SU94]

And where do they come up with the idea that a team like Buffalo with no running game against that D would have a high success rate? The reason that are 7-6 is because they have issues in the red zone..

The Bills conventional running game has no juice, but by potentially keeping the ball in Josh Allen's hands as a runner, those odds increase dramatically. There is a difference. Not sure you saw the game, but Josh Allen had 100+ yards rushing and a significant chunk of those yards came on QB sweeps (not sneaks) or RPO plays.

 

[upperdeck]

The Bills conventional running game has no juice, but by potentially keeping the ball in Josh Allen's hands as a runner, those odds increase dramatically. There is a difference. Not sure you saw the game, but Josh Allen had 100+ yards rushing and a significant chunk of those yards came on QB sweeps (not sneaks) or RPO plays.

yup.. But also much harder to run that play down at the goal line when they dont honor the pass.

 

[SU94]

And didn't get it, which ended up being a rather important decision.

What one has to be comfortable with (and many people are not) is that sometimes the proper decision (mathematically) does not work.

And conversely, sometimes the improper decision (mathematically) works.

You don't measure these decisions on the outcome, but rather in the process of choosing a path that is mathematically sound. Let's maximize my odds of winning. John Harbaugh did not care about any fan/media/player backlash. He knew he made the proper choice. He put his Ravens in the best position to win the game.

 

[SU94]

yup.. But also much harder to run that play down at the goal line when they dont honor the pass.

Curious ... why would you offer than the Bucs would not honor the pass?
Allen threw the ball over 50 times in the game.

 

[upperdeck]

Curious ... why would you offer than the Bucs would not honor the pass?
Allen threw the ball over 50 times in the game.

because we dont throw well in the red zone.. other than a short out what D would you attack with.. run blitz, blow up the power run and let the DBs play man.. if we throw we throw they are still ahead.

 

[Pyle]

The Bills conventional running game has no juice, but by potentially keeping the ball in Josh Allen's hands as a runner, those odds increase dramatically. There is a difference. Not sure you saw the game, but Josh Allen had 100+ yards rushing and a significant chunk of those yards came on QB sweeps (not sneaks) or RPO plays.

Know what other odds are greatly increased with him keeping the ball that much? The odds that he'll end up in a boot after the game. Oh wait......

 

[SU94]

because we dont throw well in the red zone.. other than a short out what D would you attack with.. run blitz, blow up the power run and let the DBs play man.. if we throw we throw they are still ahead.

Not sure I totally agree with that. The Bills have Diggs, who they went to twice on 3rd and short. They have Knox, who for one season at least, is among the best TEs in football. They have G.Davis, who has size/height to outmuscle a smaller DB or safety, they have Beasley, who is stellar in the slot when healthy (he had 6 or 7 catches Sunday). And Singletary is not terrible catching the ball out of the backfield. They had/have plenty of options at their disposal. The real culprit has been the O-Line. They'll improve. Bills are hardly dead.

 

[SU94]

Know what other odds are greatly increased with him keeping the ball that much? The odds that he'll end up in a boot after the game. Oh wait...

Agreed, to a reasonable degree. He'll be fine. They'll need his physicality this last month.
What you're speaking to is an off-season fix.

 

[RandygoCuse]

I dont have an issue with down 11 going for 2 and most would. I think its crazy down 4 late in that game that they would go for 2.

And where do they come up with the idea that a team like Buffalo with no running game against that D would have a high success rate? The reason that are 7-6 is because they have issues in the red zone..

and the model casually throws out that in OT buffalo got the ball..

If you told the model that by kicking the XP and the FG you would be in OT with the ball to win the odds of winning are better than 50/50..

Agreed - in the second scenario, I think you want to put yourself in position that you know a field goal will keep you alive. And I'm an Always-go-for-it-on-fourth type of guy

 

[upperdeck]

the main issue with the model is its across all games and teams and styles and not really correlated to the odds to any single team. this isnt the odds of rolling a dice or pulling a card.. the chance of any team winning when down 30 is X but the chance of Cornell beating Alabama once they go down 30 us X+Y..

just like horse racing the fav wins like 30% of the time.. but thats across millions of races where talent is not equal and not all races are equal.