When We Lose in NCAA's (Recently), It's Usually Offense...

[SUFan44]

People talk about the matchup with Gonzaga and how it's going to be difficult to contain Sabonis/Wiltjer. And I agree, to an extent.

But if you look at recent history, when Syracuse loses in NCAA Tournament play, it isn't usually due to them allowing the other team to score at a high percentage.

2014 vs. Dayton - 53-55 - Dayton shot 41%. Not exactly lighting the world on fire. Syracuse lost because it went 0-10 from 3 and shot 39%.

2013 vs. Michigan - 56-61 - Held Michigan to 40%, 8-24 from 3. Again, Syracuse's offense shot 42% and just 2-14 from 3. Also just 7-11 from FT line.

2012 vs. Ohio State - 70-77 - Maybe the only time in the last few years that our defense let us down, but I don't blame it as it was playing without the Defensive Player of the Year in Fab Melo. Also, they only shot 41% but went to the FT line 42 times... if we don't have John Higgins as an official again I'll be very happy.

2011 vs. Marquette - 62-66 - Held Marquette to 41%, but turnovers (18) and rebounding (12-4 offensive) killed us. Also a 23-7 discrepancy in FT shots also didn't help much.

2010 vs. Butler - 59-63 - Held Butler to 40% & 25% from 3, but had 18 turnovers and struggled scoring in the first half which put us in a hole.

Our average offensive output over the last 5 games we have lost in the NCAA Tournament is 60.0 ppg. Our defense is allowing 64.4 ppg, which isn't that bad. If our offense can score (which I think it can against Gonzaga), then I think our defense will be good enough to win.

 

[jordoo]

I agree and whats really interesting is that I see almost no national media talk about how Gonzaga will defend SU. This is often the case in the NCAA's though since the further we go the more the zone is talked about. I think in some cases it helps because the opponent spends a lot of time and energy on how they are going to beat the zone.

 

[two3zone]

Considering the player turnover I'm not really sure what those teams have to do with our current team.

Every team you mentioned was considerably better on defense than this one.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Considering the player turnover I'm not really sure what those teams have to do with our current team.

Jim Boeheim's a pretty consistent part of things.

 

[two3zone]

Jim Boeheim's a pretty consistent part of things.

Of course he is, but you're only as good as the quality that's on the floor, hence the large difference in records between the teams.

Nobody can honestly say with a straight face that this defense is anywhere near the other teams (outside of this tournament), this is the first year we have legit concerns about defense.

 

[CorduroyG]

ohio st 42 free throws, thats insane. what a disgrace that game was. a game with the freakin final 4 on the line and the refs are gonna pull that crap.

 

[SUFan44]

Considering the player turnover I'm not really sure what those teams have to do with our current team.

Every team you mentioned was considerably better on defense than this one.

Our defense is the main constant we have. We are 22nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season.

Here's a quick list from each of those years:

2014 - 13th
2013 - 8th
2012 - 17th
2011 - 18th
2010 - 20th

Better? Yes. Considerably better? No. It's also the best 3-pt. shooting team we have had since the 2010 team. Which gives us a chance offensively (and is also what hurt our last couple teams).

 

[Day2]

The more I hear these arguments about our offense vs. Gonzaga's defense, the better I feel about the game.

 

[Knicks411]

My gut also says we've played a ton of slow paced games in the tournament lately. Am i right?

2010: 63
2011: 64
2012: 69
2013: 60
2014: 58

so kind of, but not totally. We scored more than a point per possession only in the 2012 game.

 

[upperdeck]

sad part is we didnt even have to shoot poorly from 3 or the FT line to win those games.. just not god awful was good enough.

 

[OttoMets]

ohio st 42 free throws, thats insane. what a disgrace that game was. a game with the freakin final 4 on the line and the refs are gonna pull that crap.

How about Marquette the year before? So strange: Syracuse's finesse players only earn 7 free throw attempts, while Buzz's clutchers, grabbers, and moving-screeners manage 23.

They must have changed their style and very carefully avoided contact quite a bit that night.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Considering the player turnover I'm not really sure what those teams have to do with our current team.

Every team you mentioned was considerably better on defense than this one.

Meh. I don't think so. That 2011 team got torched from 3 point range a bunch of times that year. Some of it was flukey but it still happened.

 

[HoustonCuse]

How about Marquette the year before? So strange: Syracuse's finesse players only earn 7 free throw attempts, while Buzz's clutchers, grabbers, and moving-screeners manage 23.

They must have changed their style and very carefully avoided contact quite a bit that night.

Don't forget the "over and back" call.

 

[Day2]

Don't forget the "over and back" call.

I think being in the ACC will help with calls going forward. Yeah, we got stuck with Higgins and the offensive fouls were a joke against MTSU, but they didn't call much else and the Raiders barely saw the FT line. Hard to know for sure with a sample size of four games, and by no means will we ever get the Duke/North Carolina treatment, but maybe poor officiating in the tournament won't haunt us like it used to.

I also think being in the ACC helped on Selection Sunday. No way we make the tournament if we're still in the Big East. I can't remember a time pre-ACC when we were a bubble team and got in.

 

[HOFCeluck]

ohio st 42 free throws, thats insane. what a disgrace that game was. a game with the freakin final 4 on the line and the refs are gonna pull that crap.

I'm going to post this box score and see how quick the narrative changes.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=330820183

 

[Dave85]

ohio st 42 free throws, thats insane. what a disgrace that game was. a game with the freakin final 4 on the line and the refs are gonna pull that crap.

HIGGINS!!!!!

 

[Dave85]

I'm going to post this box score and see how quick the narrative changes.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=330820183

No change. Players playing zone do not foul as much as M2M (especially when you are out matched). I don't see anything crazy in those numbers. But 42 times? That's insane.

I'm sure some of the number crackers here could supply us the actual median so we can ascertain a reasonable deviation.

 

[HOFCeluck]

No change. Players playing zone do not foul as much as M2M (especially when you are out matched). I don't see anything crazy in those numbers. But 42 times? That's insane.

So 41 ft is OK against man, but against zone it's a DISGRACE.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

So 41 ft is OK against man, but against zone it's a DISGRACE.

I mean, you do understand we're not Cal fans, right? You act shocked, SHOCKED that SU fans would focus on a game they lost, instead of a game they won. I'm sure Ohio State fans constantly grouse about how unfortunate it was we got boned in that game.

I did a post shortly after that game showing how completely out of the realm of possibility those OSU free throw numbers were. Statistically it was a giant aberration. I'll have to dig it up to continue the homerism.

 

[Dave85]

So 41 ft is OK against man, but against zone it's a DISGRACE.

No, I said we need number crackers to tells us what is deviant. I suspect Higgins was a HUGE a hole if it were analyzed.

 

[Dave85]

I mean, you do understand we're not Cal fans, right? You act shocked, SHOCKED that SU fans would focus on a game they lost, instead of a game they won. I'm sure Ohio State fans constantly grouse about how unfortunate it was we got boned in that game.

I did a post shortly after that game showing how completely out of the realm of possibility those OSU free throw numbers were. Statistically it was a giant aberration. I'll have to dig it up to continue the homerism.

I suspect it was an aberration. But we should ask two3zone since he is a self-professed crapper of basketball knowledge.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I mean, you do understand we're not Cal fans, right? You act shocked, SHOCKED that SU fans would focus on a game they lost, instead of a game they won. I'm sure Ohio State fans constantly grouse about how unfortunate it was we got boned in that game.

I did a post shortly after that game showing how completely out of the realm of possibility those OSU free throw numbers were. Statistically it was a giant aberration. I'll have to dig it up to continue the homerism.

So homerism. Ok, fine. But let's not pretend it's anything more than that.

I swear listening to some people we haven't lost a game straight up since Boeheim still wore plaid.

 

[TheCusian]

So homerism. Ok, fine. But let's not pretend it's anything more than that. I swear listening to some people we haven't lost a game straight up since Boeheim still wore plaid.

That year the NCAA wasn't going to allow us to mar the final four (that was the year of Bernie Fine, drug news, etc).

I will die someday believing we were hosed on purpose for that game. The announcer was like "I talked with some of the players and they were actually kind of nice guys" ...

 

[two3zone]

I suspect it was an aberration. But we should ask two3zone since he is a self-professed crapper of basketball knowledge.

No, just more than you know. I've never seen you post your own opinion. All you do is agree with people who are deemed popular around here even though you've never given a thought of your own. It's ok, some people are born sheep.

 

[HOFCeluck]

That year the NCAA wasn't going to allow us to mar the final four (that was the year of Bernie Fine, drug news, etc).

I will die someday believing we were hosed on purpose for that game. The announcer was like "I talked with some of the players and they were actually kind of nice guys" ...

...and jet fuel can't melt steel beams.