Where do we stand? S&P+ Week 12

[TheCusian]

We lost and underperformed vs ND. But BC did the same vs FSU.

I'm looking at BC's offense and wondering what happened. #94 is pretty bad.

Here's the data, and here's the rankings:

#130 UCONN (1-10)
Finished #119 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN O (Previous Week): #92 (#94) +2
UCONN D (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
UCONN ST (Previous Week): #38 (#44) +6
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 100%

#108 LOUISVILLE (2-9)
Finished #16 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #108 (#104) -4
Louisville O (Previous Week): #111 (#105) -6
Louisville D (Previous Week): #105 (#105)
Louisville ST (Previous Week): #63 (#38) -25
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 99%

#98 WESTERN MICHIGAN (6-5)
Finished #74 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #98 (#98)
Western Michigan O (Previous Week): #37 (#41) -4
Western Michigan D (Previous Week): #110 (#108) -2
Western Michigan ST (Previous Week): #130 (#130)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 53%

#94 UNC (2-8)
Finished #94 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #94 (#95) +1
UNC O (Previous Week): #65 (#84) +19
UNC D (Previous Week): #99 (#98) -1
UNC ST (Previous Week): #83 (#59) -24
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 84%

#88 WAKE FOREST (5-6)
Finished #37 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #88 (#85) -3
Wake Forest O (Previous Week): #60 (#60)
Wake Forest D (Previous Week): #92 (#89) -3
Wake Forest ST (Previous Week): #76 (#87) +11
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 26%

#74 FLORIDA STATE (5-6)
Finished #43 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #74 (#87) +13
Florida State O (Previous Week): #106 (#104) -2
Florida State D (Previous Week): #34 (#43) +9
Florida State ST (Previous Week): #98 (#101) +3
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 98%

#60 BC (7-4)
Finished #66 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #60 (#46) -14
BC O (Previous Week): #94 (#86) -8
BC D (Previous Week): #28 (#25) -3
BC ST (Previous Week): #108 (#75) -33
Syracuse Win Probability (Previous Week): 47% (47%)

#54 PITT (7-4)
Finished #82 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #54 (#62) +8
PITT O (Previous Week): #38 (#44) +6
PITT D (Previous Week): #71 (#77) +6
PITT ST (Previous Week): #52 (#52)
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 16%

#48 SYRACUSE (8-3)
Finished #88 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #48 (#39) -9
Syracuse O (Previous Week): #51 (#39) -12
Syracuse D (Previous Week): #68 (#68)
Syracuse ST (Previous Week): #1 (#1)

#35 NC STATE (7-3)
Finished #38 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #35 (#45) +10
NC State O (Previous Week): #25 (#29) +4
NC State D (Previous Week): #57 (#64) +7
NC State ST (Previous Week): #49 (#61) +12
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 71%

#6 NOTRE DAME (11-0)
Finished #13 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #6 (#6)
Notre Dame O (Previous Week): #27 (#27)
Notre Dame D (Previous Week): #3 (#3)
Notre Dame ST (Previous Week): #61 (#54) -7
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 0%

#2 CLEMSON (11-0)
Finished #8 Overall in 2017
Current Ranking (Previous Week): #2 (#2)
Clemson O (Previous Week): #9 (#11) +3
Clemson D (Previous Week): #1 (#1)
Clemson ST (Previous Week): #64 (#63) -1
Syracuse Postgame win expectancy: 9%

 

[TheCusian]

Hey, let's answer my own question. What happened to the BC offense?

They are #106 in Rushing S&P+ ... which defies all commonly held beliefs about their OL and Dillon. I think he's been hobbled the last 6 games or so, but I also think most teams are taking away the run 1st and challenging Brown to beat them with the pass. He's good and they have some guys in the WR spots. But he's not good enough to carry them. (They are #45 in Passing S&P+.)

They are monumentally bad at 3rd down and long (#117). 3rd and med (#100) is not much better. But the crazy thing is their 3rd down and short ranking at #72. That's bad meathead offense. It also plays into our strengths - we love 3rd and med/long.

That 3rd down % leads to an inefficient offense. They thrive on big plays, mostly on early downs and play action. That will be a test for our secondary.