I don't think we've really settled into an equilibrium yet. Like, it doesn't make sense for top programs to give incoming freshman minutes to develop them when they can snag starter-ready players in the portal. Thus, the 4-stars who aren't as polished and ready yet should probably be going to weaker P5 or mid majors and then portaling. Only the 5 stars who are ready for the big time should be going to blue bloods and big P5 programs.
It should almost be a reversal of the way it had been the last couple decades. The powerhouses had all the top recruits and a lot of NBA talent that would stay a couple years, and the mid-majors that could take them down in March had a bunch of 4-year guys who weren't as talented but had experience, poise and chemistry.
Now it should be like the cream of the crop recruits at powerhouses, then the best portal players at powerhouses - which will include guys the mid majors have developed, and a lot of raw talent at mid majors that's not perceived as ready for minutes at a powerhouse as a freshman.
The mid-majors who slay Goliath in the tournament would then be the ones that caught the ready for big time minutes guys who slipped through the cracks and/or developed the raw talent by the end of the year.