Reverse order of the list; we would have only had to win two more games in 2012-13, three more in 2011-2012 and four more in 09-10. The chances of winning two consecutive is higher than three, which is higher than four.
Having 47% TC would have given Triche and MCW more rest and drawn the defense allowing MCW to drive and make it easier for everyone. If Cooney made one or two threes in the Michigan game, it would have been ours. We had beaten Louisville already that year. I'd take my chances in a close game that easily could have been won and one game vs UL over Ohio State, Kansas, UK or four consecutive games, regardless of who the opponent is.