Whisper is FSU President has indicated that

[texascpa]

2 subjects that draw a tremendous amount of page views - 1) Apple, 2) conference realignment.

Apple sucks

 

[Faegan]

Apple sucks

Apple rules!

 

[Chip]

It doesn't start with a blogger mentioning something about FSU going to the Big XII, it instead starts with a some alleged sports reporter misinterpreting the ACC television contract, which leads to others (be it bloggers or not) relying on the incorrect information ... and it leads to a stupid FSU trustee to spout off about things pertaining to the ACC television deal that are entirely inaccurate, which leads to same stupid FSU trustee to mention "other conferences."

That's how it works ...

Bingo...

Throw in the Big 12 - SEC scheduling a bowl game (that will hardly ever match up their 2 conference champions) and all those alleged sports reporters try to fit the pieces like a puzzle. Big 10-Pac 10 have a bowl game, Big 12 - SEC have a bowl game, we got it! Final 4! It's done. Everyone join up or be left behind.

And yes, I do think there are otherwise smart people who get riled up by that stuff. See Todd, Chuck. Some of them are probably even on the board of trustees or other positions of influence for a school.

 

[rrlbees]

Focus on the facts.

What facts would they be? There have been no facts released. It's all based on "sources" and the officials at schools are saying what they have to say no matter the facts. I'm reminded of the aTm Prez denying everything last August and then a few days later they scheduled an "emergency BOT executive meeting". The rest after that is history.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

 

[HtownOrange]

Facts:

- Four Big 12 schools left the Big 12
- All of the remaining schools have attempted to leave the Big 12, several within the past years
- UT dominates the Big 12 politics
- OU lacks academics to garner and invite by the prestigious conferences on its own record as evidenced by their failure to secure an invite
- The remaining schools are not primary targets of expansion as seen by the latest actions in expansion
- Kansas, Kansas St. Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, TTech and Oklahoma State are NOT major draws
- FSU's chances of being placed in the same division with UT and OU are slim
- FSU travel expenses in the big12 will go up, estimated at 40%, or $2.4MM
- FSU already has a 3rd tier deal in place at $6.5MM
- FSU faces an ACC buyout of $20-$25MM
- FSU will have to buy in to the Big 12 (WVU and TCU are receiving (50% payout 1st year, estimated 67%, 2nd year and estimated 84% 3rd year, full payout 4th year - this amounts to about a $20MM buy in)
- Using the buy in and buy outs, FSU is already down $40-$45 MM, assuming a $5MM/year increase, it will take 8-9 years to break even. If FSU gets the same assistance WVU gets, that break even point is reduced by 1-2 years, but this does not factor in the cost of travel which will extend that break even point.
- FSU is NOT selling out current games but the idea is that the Big 12 teams (KSU, Kansas, ISU, TTech, Baylor, OSU, TCU) will pack the house. UT and OU should pack the house and WVU with their traveling fans is a safe bet to pack the house.
- All TV contracts are back end loaded. Thus, comparing the alleged $20MM Big 12 deal with the current low base estimate of the ACC at $14MM is disingenuous by bloggers and pundits. The reality is the ACC just paid more out than the low ball estimate and the Big 12 is still under the old contract and not the extension that pays the average $20MM. Additionally, the the Big 12 payout was inflated this season by splitting the deal 8 ways, collecting buyouts and splitting the championship game money (which fox has continued though it is not played).

I agree with you that we are not hearing official word that FSU and the Big 12 have talked, and we likely will not. I'm sure the Big 12 has been scrambling for many months to secure whatever they could. They took TCU and WVU with little effort, but they were Big East teams and Syracuse and Pitt had already left. Going to the Big 12 was a good move for them. FSU is in a good, stable conference which has a good payday (albeit, it was negotiated at a bad time without competing bidders). I'm confident they are performing their due diligence. However, when you factor in the above information which has been released by official sources you can reasonably estimate what will happen. Can they do something different? Yes. Can they have other information that makes it an offer they cannot refuse? Yes. But neither usually happens.

 

[cusenole9]

Facts:

- Four Big 12 schools left the Big 12
- All of the remaining schools have attempted to leave the Big 12, several within the past years
- UT dominates the Big 12 politics
- OU lacks academics to garner and invite by the prestigious conferences on its own record as evidenced by their failure to secure an invite
- The remaining schools are not primary targets of expansion as seen by the latest actions in expansion
- Kansas, Kansas St. Iowa Stat Baylor, TCU, TTech and Oklahoma State ,are NOT major draws
- FSU's chances of being placed in the same division with UT and OU are slim
- FSU travel expenses in the big12 will go up, estimated at 40%, or $2.4MM
- FSU already has a 3rd tier deal in place at $6.5MM
- FSU faces an ACC buyout of $20-$25MM
- FSU will have to buy in to the Big 12 (WVU and TCU are receiving (50% payout 1st year, estimated 67%, 2nd year and estimated 84% 3rd year, full payout 4th year - this amounts to about a $20MM buy in) assumption
- Using the buy in and buy outs, FSU is already down $40-$45 MM, assuming a $5MM/year increase, it will take 8-9 years to break even. If FSU gets the same assistance WVU gets, that break even point is reduced by 1-2 years, but this does not factor in the cost of travel which will extend that break even point. assumption
- FSU is NOT selling out current games but the idea is that the Big 12 teams (KSU, Kansas, ISU, TTech, Baylor, OSU, TCU) will pack the house. UT and OU should pack the house and WVU with their traveling fans is a safe bet to pack the house.
- All TV contracts are back end loaded. Thus, comparing the alleged $20MM Big 12 deal with the current low base estimate of the ACC at $14MM is disingenuous by bloggers and pundits. The reality is the ACC just paid more out than the low ball estimate and the Big 12 is still under the old contract and not the extension that pays the average $20MM. Additionally, the the Big 12 payout was inflated this season by splitting the deal 8 ways, collecting buyouts and splitting the championship game money (which fox has continued though it is not played).

I agree with you that we are not hearing official word that FSU and the Big 12 have talked, and we likely will not. I'm sure the Big 12 has been scrambling for many months to secure whatever they could. They took TCU and WVU with little effort, but they were Big East teams and Syracuse and Pitt had already left. Going to the Big 12 was a good move for them. FSU is in a good, stable conference which has a good payday (albeit, it was negotiated at a bad time without competing bidders). I'm confident they are performing their due diligence. However, when you factor in the above information which has been released by official sources you can reasonably estimate what will happen. Can they do something different? Yes. Can they have other information that makes it an offer they cannot refuse? Yes. But neither usually happens.

I would rather see FSU play KState, OSU, TCU, maybe even Baylor more than I would like to see them play anyone in the ACC except VTech or Miami, and tied with Clemson.

FSU's tier 3 money comes from coaches shows, olympic sports etc. which they would retain. PLus guaranteed 3 basketball games and 1 football game in the big 12. Would the difference be huge? No. But they would stand to make more in the B12.

I don't know how you can give these hard financial numbers when no one has access to such numbers. The B12 deal isn't signed we have no clue what it is for the current conference let alone what would happen with additional teams.

You completely ignore post season money. A. CCG B. Playoffs (B12 will get a team in almost every year = more money) C. Bowl games...all 3 of which are major pieces to the financial puzzle.

Now I'm not saying you're wrong about everything you've been saying. And I think you're probably right about a lot of it, but I don't think your facts are rock solid nor do they cover the whole picture. It's crazy how on the FSU board everyone spins everything into FSU is leaving, no doubt about it. Then over on this board it's just the obvious. People right now just believe what they want to believe. I think Bees is right on by the way. May happen, may not but certainly little has been reported that gives a strong indication of what is happening.

 

[TexanMark]

Not sure it will be a good long term move for WVU yet...it really was a move of desperation. Are they in a better place than the Big East? Absolutely. However, if Louisville and Cincy are not added they have no one nearby. They will be a geographic outlier and we all know their fans love to travel...hope they get used to those 15-20 hrs drives.

 

[texascpa]

I would rather see FSU play KState, OSU, TCU, maybe even Baylor more than I would like to see them play anyone in the ACC except VTech or Miami, and tied with Clemson.

FSU's tier 3 money comes from coaches shows, olympic sports etc. which they would retain. PLus guaranteed 3 basketball games and 1 football game in the big 12. Would the difference be huge? No. But they would stand to make more in the B12.

I don't know how you can give these hard financial numbers when no one has access to such numbers. The B12 deal isn't signed we have no clue what it is for the current conference let alone what would happen with additional teams.

You completely ignore post season money. A. CCG B. Playoffs (B12 will get a team in almost every year = more money) C. Bowl games...all 3 of which are major pieces to the financial puzzle.

Now I'm not saying you're wrong about everything you've been saying. And I think you're probably right about a lot of it, but I don't think your facts are rock solid nor do they cover the whole picture. It's crazy how on the FSU board everyone spins everything into FSU is leaving, no doubt about it. Then over on this board it's just the obvious. People right now just believe what they want to believe. I think Bees is right on by the way. May happen, may not but certainly little has been reported that gives a strong indication of what is happening.

So, instead of 3 teams you would like to see them play in the ACC, you would prefer 4 in the B12. And pray tell, how many of those four would visit FSU every year? Maybe 2. How does that benefit FSU or FSU fans?

I know FSU fans are pissed off right now, but they are so without much to back it up. You, yourself, just asked how HTown knows the B12 payout. If you don't know it, how can FSU fans compare it against what everyone KNOWS FSU just received from the ACC and then turnaround and say a B12 payout is better?

Lastly, if you took the current TOP4 teams or the 4 Conf Champs in the Top6, the two likely playoff scenarios, the BIG12 would not even have had a team in the playoffs in 2010 using the BCS formula (TCU being in the WAC that year). So, it's disingenious to assume a B12 champ will be in every year. Fact is, if FSU wants to be in the playoffs, I don't think any pollsters or selection committee would have a problem putting them in if they won their damn games.

 

[cusenole9]

So, instead of 3 teams you would like to see them play in the ACC, you would prefer 4 in the B12. And pray tell, how many of those four would visit FSU every year? Maybe 2. How does that benefit FSU or FSU fans?

I know FSU fans are pissed off right now, but they are so without much to back it up. You, yourself, just asked how HTown knows the B12 payout. If you don't know it, how can FSU fans compare it against what everyone KNOWS FSU just received from the ACC and then turnaround and say a B12 payout is better?

Lastly, if you took the current TOP4 teams or the 4 Conf Champs in the Top6, the two likely playoff scenarios, the BIG12 would not even have had a team in the playoffs in 2010 using the BCS formula (TCU being in the WAC that year). So, it's disingenious to assume a B12 champ will be in every year. Fact is, if FSU wants to be in the playoffs, I don't think any pollsters or selection committee would have a problem putting them in if they won their damn games.

I think FSU fans will fill the stadium for good matchups, we aren't too reliant on huge visiting fan bases.( not that the ACC has many of those).

I completely agree with your next two points. I was just playing devils advocate and I will admit to being completely in the dark as far as this stuff goes. I have no clue what is going to happen or even what should happen. I just dont think anyone else (besides the people actively involved behind closed doors) knows either. So, I get frustrated when people claim something is either definitely going to happen or not going to happen.

I also agree that FSU would have access to the playoffs in the ACC. But, failing to make the playoffs, they would receive a payout from the playoffs more often in the Big12 than in the ACC. That's all.

 

[Guinness]

Question. FSU only fills up their stadium for big time opponents like OU last year. Is this normal for flagship programs like OSU, USC, ND, UT, OU, UM, etc? Or does it speak to a larger problem with the FSU program?

 

[cusenole9]

Question. FSU only fills up their stadium for big time opponents like OU last year. Is this normal for flagship programs like OSU, USC, ND, UT, OU, UM, etc? Or does it speak to a larger problem with the FSU program?

Yeah it's a combination of failing to meet expectations for a decade and being located in the panhandle of Florida. Not a cheap flight, not a close drive for much of Florida even. However, a couple solid seasons and this problem goes away, in fact attendance last year was much better.

 

[HtownOrange]

I would rather see FSU play KState, OSU, TCU, maybe even Baylor more than I would like to see them play anyone in the ACC except VTech or Miami, and tied with Clemson.

- Wow, really? You'll be crying about these guys inside of 5 years. If you don't like the middle of the pack and teh bottom feeders in one conference you probably will not like the same group in another conference. Next conference please...

FSU's tier 3 money comes from coaches shows, olympic sports etc. which they would retain. PLus guaranteed 3 basketball games and 1 football game in the big 12. Would the difference be huge? No. But they would stand to make more in the B12.

- So one cheesy OOC game (a.k.a. body bag game) and 3 warm up games in hoops are going to save FSU financially? Things are really bad. By the way, the deal FSU has already gets the games not picked up by ESPN, so FSU may not get anything new as it is already in the deal.

I don't know how you can give these hard financial numbers when no one has access to such numbers. The B12 deal isn't signed we have no clue what it is for the current conference let alone what would happen with additional teams.

- Correct the Big 12 deal is NOT signed, the current deal has several more years and has a payout is WAY less than the $20MM/year that the Big 12 has reportedly agreed to and that deal has a few more years. Further, ESPN and the big 12 have both affirmed that expansion is covered by simply adding the same share for each new team, NO new negotiation. If we cannot believe the two parties to an agreement, who can we believe? The deal is an extension, so if no other details are presented, the remaining terms are presumed to be the same

You completely ignore post season money. A. CCG B. Playoffs (B12 will get a team in almost every year = more money) C. Bowl games...all 3 of which are major pieces to the financial puzzle.

- Fox already has the CCG for the Big 12. They are merely paying for the game without the game being played. Don't know how much better to address it than that. No new money for a game they are being paid for.

Now I'm not saying you're wrong about everything you've been saying. And I think you're probably right about a lot of it, but I don't think your facts are rock solid nor do they cover the whole picture. It's crazy how on the FSU board everyone spins everything into FSU is leaving, no doubt about it. Then over on this board it's just the obvious. People right now just believe what they want to believe. I think Bees is right on by the way. May happen, may not but certainly little has been reported that gives a strong indication of what is happening.

- The numbers presented above are all produced by officials who have knowledge. I have posted links in other threads as have many others. It's time you do research. As for the FSU board, who cares, if they look at the same information and come up with a different answer, that is OK. Nobody here is saying that FSU is absolutely not going. I even conceded the point that FSU may have additional information, but apparently you did not make it that far in the post. My personal position is I want FSU to stay, never said otherwise, but I still look at the facts. There is a buyout from the ACC and a buy-in to the Big 12. Travel will go up (from an FSU source). Use some common sense and you will see there are at least some obstacles to leaving. Also, the Big 12 payout is inflated this year because there are only 8 recipients of the payout instead of the original 12. The new extension does not kick in for a few more years. The fans on the FSU board are probably speaking from emotion instead of cold analysis. You cannot deny the facts that four Big 12 teams left the conference, nor can you deny that EVERY other team from the original Big 12 has attempted to leave the conference. If nothing else, those two facts should raise a very big red flag.

If FSU goes, I will wish them well. They are one of three schools in the ACC that I really like. I will still follow FSU as one of my secondary teams.

 

[HtownOrange]

Not sure it will be a good long term move for WVU yet...it really was a move of desperation. Are they in a better place than the Big East? Absolutely. However, if Louisville and Cincy are not added they have no one nearby. They will be a geographic outlier and we all know their fans love to travel...hope they get used to those 15-20 hrs drives.

You may be dead on correct, TM. WVU fans are used to games within driving distance. Hope they enjoy crossing the plains states, some boring drives there!

 

[All4SU]

Not sure it will be a good long term move for WVU yet...it really was a move of desperation. Are they in a better place than the Big East? Absolutely. However, if Louisville and Cincy are not added they have no one nearby. They will be a geographic outlier and we all know their fans love to travel...hope they get used to those 15-20 hrs drives.

If WVU were presented with unlimited options, they would have chosen:
1) SEC
2) Big10
3) ACC
4) Big12
...
...
...
37) Stay in the BE

 

[rrlbees]

Facts:

- Four Big 12 schools left the Big 12
- All of the remaining schools have attempted to leave the Big 12, several within the past years
- UT dominates the Big 12 politics
- OU lacks academics to garner and invite by the prestigious conferences on its own record as evidenced by their failure to secure an invite
- The remaining schools are not primary targets of expansion as seen by the latest actions in expansion
- Kansas, Kansas St. Iowa State, Baylor, TCU, TTech and Oklahoma State are NOT major draws
- FSU's chances of being placed in the same division with UT and OU are slim
- FSU travel expenses in the big12 will go up, estimated at 40%, or $2.4MM
- FSU already has a 3rd tier deal in place at $6.5MM
- FSU faces an ACC buyout of $20-$25MM
- FSU will have to buy in to the Big 12 (WVU and TCU are receiving (50% payout 1st year, estimated 67%, 2nd year and estimated 84% 3rd year, full payout 4th year - this amounts to about a $20MM buy in)
- Using the buy in and buy outs, FSU is already down $40-$45 MM, assuming a $5MM/year increase, it will take 8-9 years to break even. If FSU gets the same assistance WVU gets, that break even point is reduced by 1-2 years, but this does not factor in the cost of travel which will extend that break even point.
- FSU is NOT selling out current games but the idea is that the Big 12 teams (KSU, Kansas, ISU, TTech, Baylor, OSU, TCU) will pack the house. UT and OU should pack the house and WVU with their traveling fans is a safe bet to pack the house.
- All TV contracts are back end loaded. Thus, comparing the alleged $20MM Big 12 deal with the current low base estimate of the ACC at $14MM is disingenuous by bloggers and pundits. The reality is the ACC just paid more out than the low ball estimate and the Big 12 is still under the old contract and not the extension that pays the average $20MM. Additionally, the the Big 12 payout was inflated this season by splitting the deal 8 ways, collecting buyouts and splitting the championship game money (which fox has continued though it is not played).

I agree with you that we are not hearing official word that FSU and the Big 12 have talked, and we likely will not. I'm sure the Big 12 has been scrambling for many months to secure whatever they could. They took TCU and WVU with little effort, but they were Big East teams and Syracuse and Pitt had already left. Going to the Big 12 was a good move for them. FSU is in a good, stable conference which has a good payday (albeit, it was negotiated at a bad time without competing bidders). I'm confident they are performing their due diligence. However, when you factor in the above information which has been released by official sources you can reasonably estimate what will happen. Can they do something different? Yes. Can they have other information that makes it an offer they cannot refuse? Yes. But neither usually happens.

Really? You're killing me. Some of those aren't facts while others have nothing to do with whether FSU is considering going to the B12. I'm out and on mu phone so I'll have to respond to those tomorrow.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

 

[TexanMark]

Really? You're killing me. Some of those aren't facts while others have nothing to do with whether FSU is considering going to the B12. I'm out and on mu phone so I'll have to respond to those tomorrow.

Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2

Well get off ur phone before u break it

btw Htown is spot on imho

 

[cusenole9]

You could be right about getting sick of those programs, but those teams have been quite good lately. I realize that could and probably change in a couple years, but part of the draw for me is that these teams have fan bases that care about football, makes the whole atmosphere more fun. This of course is a matter of opinion and could be rooted too heavily in the excitement of new matchups.

I didn't mean to sound hostile or like I was trying to pick a fight or anything. As I agree with A LOT of what you say. Sorry if I misunderstood your level of certainty. On some things we'll have to agree to disagree but I appreciate you trying to make a logic based conclusion on this (I've tried but failed and admittedly don' know what the hell is going on.)

 

[TexanMark]

You could be right about getting sick of those programs, but those teams have been quite good lately. I realize that could and probably change in a couple years, but part of the draw for me is that these teams have fan bases that care about football, makes the whole atmosphere more fun. This of course is a matter of opinion and could be rooted too heavily in the excitement of new matchups.

I didn't mean to sound hostile or like I was trying to pick a fight or anything. As I agree with A LOT of what you say. Sorry if I misunderstood your level of certainty. On some things we'll have to agree to disagree but I appreciate you trying to make a logic based conclusion on this (I've tried but failed and admittedly don' know what the hell is going on.)

Who is going to travel to Tallahassee once they realize it is in the panhandle? I think you overrate the ability of any B12 fanbase to travel to FSU in large numbers.

 

[cusenole9]

Who is going to travel to Tallahassee once they realize it is in the panhandle? I think you overrate the ability of any B12 fanbase to travel to FSU in large numbers.

Definitely possible, but at worst it's a wash. Not like the ACC travels well.

 

[Toga]

Who is going to travel to Tallahassee once they realize it is in the panhandle? I think you overrate the ability of any B12 fanbase to travel to FSU in large numbers.

Maybe - but Gulf Shores is not that far away and I've had good times in Panama City and Pensacola. It's where the aging Midwesterners spent their spring breaks.

 

[omniorange]

You could be right about getting sick of those programs, but those teams have been quite good lately. I realize that could and probably change in a couple years, but part of the draw for me is that these teams have fan bases that care about football, makes the whole atmosphere more fun. This of course is a matter of opinion and could be rooted too heavily in the excitement of new matchups.

Having not watched a lot of Big 12 games not involving Texas and Oklahoma I cannot comment on how much football fans at ISU, KU, and K-State care about that sport.

But if attendance is a factor, over the past 5 - years, here are the average numbers:

VT - 66,233
WVU - 57,332*
UNC - 57,221
NC State - 56,521
TTU - 53,648
UVa - 51,005
Okla State - 50,009 (edited to include the Cowboys' numbers which were mistakently not included)
GT - 48,807
ISU - 48,443
Miami - 47,733
K-State - 47,636
KU - 47,081
Pitt - 46,856*
Md - 45,038
BC - 38,564
SU - 37,619*
Baylor - 37,194
TCU - 34,949*
Wake - 31,697
Duke - 25,651

*New Conference - attendance numbers likely to go up as a result.

Bold - likely divisional mates with FSU and Clemson.

Again, not sure what the above says to your point about being better football fans, but it doesn't appear to me that once you get past Texas and Oklahoma the Big 12 fan bases are not demonstrably better than the ACC until you get to the very bottom.

Still, I do understand why an FSU football fan would consider the Big 12 an acceptable alternative.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[cusenole9]

Having not watched a lot of Big 12 games not involving Texas and Oklahoma I cannot comment on how much football fans at ISU, KU, and K-State care about that sport.

But if attendance is a factor, over the past 5 - years, here are the average numbers:

VT - 66,233
WVU - 57,332*
UNC - 57,221
NC State - 56,521
TTU - 53,648
UVa - 51,005
GT - 48,807
ISU - 48,443
Miami - 47,733
K-State - 47,636
KU - 47,081
Pitt - 46,856*
Md - 45,038
BC - 38,564
SU - 37,619*
Baylor - 37,194
TCU - 34,949*
Wake - 31,697
Duke - 25,651

*New Conference - attendance numbers likely to go up as a result.

Bold - likely divisional mates with FSU and Clemson.

Again, not sure what the above says to your point about being better football fans, but it doesn't appear to me that once you get past Texas and Oklahoma the Big 12 fan bases are not demonstrably better than the ACC until you get to the very bottom.

Still, I do understand why an FSU football fan would consider the Big 12 an acceptable alternative.

Cheers,
Neil

Thanks Neil. Awesome numbers. Much lower than I expected especially from a school like KState. Even TCU is MUCH lower than I had expected. I do think those numbers go up for TCU and Baylor who is building an awesome new riverfront stadium, but still, point taken. My perception was certainly off, at least from a numbers standpoint.