SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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Why Boston College will win
- Boston College has rebuilt their running game and used it to win four games in a row after competitive losses to Florida State, (29-32) and Louisville (28-56 after a 0-28 start). They are an aggressive confident team.
- We on the other hand, seem lost in a fog. After a competitive loss to Clemson, (decided by turnovers: 4 of them that led to TD and we only got one and lost by 17 – and dropped three interceptions that all coupled have bene pick sixes), we basically haven’t shown up in the three games since, getting rolled by a combined 101 points. Virginia Tech was supposed to be a step down in competition and yet that made no difference at all, suggesting that anybody we play the rest of the way could do the same thing to. From 4-0 to 4-8 is looming.
- Coach Babers described BC as “Army with bigger and more talented players”. Army dominated the first half against us, building up a 3-10 lead that could have bene much worse. They pounded away with their running game and later hit an 80 yard TD pass against us. That’s exactly what BC will look to do: force us to basically abandon the 3-3-5 to defend the line of scrimmage and then burn us deep. And they can do it.
- Thomas Castellanos has become everything Garret Shrader used to be. He’s leading the country in rushing yards for a quarterback with 673 yards at 5.4 a crack with 9 running TDs. He’s also passed for 1,549 yards and 11 TDs. Shrader his 316/3.6/6 with 1,508 passing yards and 9 scores. While LeQuint Allen has averaged 4.6 yards per carry and his back-up Juwan Price 3.2. BC’s Kye Robichaux has averaged 5.0 and two other backs have averaged 5.2 and 4.7. And they love getting around the edges of defenses. The 3-3-5 is a road with a big shoulder.
- The Carrier Dome holds no horrors for the Eagles, who won here 33-29 in 1993, 24-23 in 1999, 16-7 in 2010, 42-14 in 2017, 58-27 in 2019 and 16-13 in 2020.
- With all the injuries we’ve had, we are a shadow of the team that started the season, just like we have been for years, regardless of who the coach was. We lost our last 9 games in 2005, 6 of our last 7 in 2006, our last four in 2007, three of our last four in 2009, our last 5 in 2011, 9 of our last ten in 2014, eight nine in 2015, our last four in 2016, our last five in 2017, our last eight in 2020, our last three in 2021 and six of our last seven in 2022. We are SU!
Stats that favor Boston College:
SCORING OFFENSE SU- 26.38 BC – 28.13
TOTAL OFFENSIVE YARDS SU- 366.4 BC – 421.3
OFFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 154 BC - 182
OFFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 146.1 BC – 215.6
OFFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 41.88 BC – 49.33
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS (extra points assumed) SU- 144/30= 4.8 BC – 156/28 = 5.6
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 26 BC - 8
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 52 BC - 34
TOTAL DEFENSIVE YARDS SU- 399.1 BC – 364.3
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 250.00 BC – 199.75
DEFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 172 BC - 147
DEFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 62.1 BC – 59.375
OPPONENT KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 7/42 = 16.7% BC – 16/41 = 39.02%
PUNT RETURNS SU- 8.15 BC – 10.50
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 15.62 BC –0.67
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 13/40 = 32.5% BC - 3/30 = 10.0%
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE SU- 8/11 = 72.7% BC – 10/12 = 83.33%
PUNTS RETURNED SU- 20/37 = 54.1% BC - 9/37 = 24.3%
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 2 BC - 0
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 27:04 BC – 31:20
COMMON OPPONENTS: Surprisingly at this stage of the season, only two: We beat Army 29-16. BC beat them 27-24. We got blown out by Florida State 3-41. BC barely lost to them 29-31. That’s a combined 32-57 for us and 56-55 for them. Rushing: Us 282-316, them 473-289. Passing: Us 385-489, them 356-327. Total Us: 664-805, them 829-616. First downs: Us 32-38, them 39-32. Turnovers: 3-2, them 2-3.
So 1 win and 1 loss each really doesn’t tell the story of these games.
Comments: BC scores more than we do because they rush for more yards than we do and get more first downs. They convert more third and fourth downs and do better in the red zone. They give up very few sacks, probably because they have a better offensive line and also because they have become primarily a running team. They’ve also had fewer TFLs, probably for the same reasons. They have given up fewer defensive yards because they hold onto the ball and because our pass defensive has become pretty bad. They’ve got amazing punt coverage and a small edge in place-kicking.
- Boston College has rebuilt their running game and used it to win four games in a row after competitive losses to Florida State, (29-32) and Louisville (28-56 after a 0-28 start). They are an aggressive confident team.
- We on the other hand, seem lost in a fog. After a competitive loss to Clemson, (decided by turnovers: 4 of them that led to TD and we only got one and lost by 17 – and dropped three interceptions that all coupled have bene pick sixes), we basically haven’t shown up in the three games since, getting rolled by a combined 101 points. Virginia Tech was supposed to be a step down in competition and yet that made no difference at all, suggesting that anybody we play the rest of the way could do the same thing to. From 4-0 to 4-8 is looming.
- Coach Babers described BC as “Army with bigger and more talented players”. Army dominated the first half against us, building up a 3-10 lead that could have bene much worse. They pounded away with their running game and later hit an 80 yard TD pass against us. That’s exactly what BC will look to do: force us to basically abandon the 3-3-5 to defend the line of scrimmage and then burn us deep. And they can do it.
- Thomas Castellanos has become everything Garret Shrader used to be. He’s leading the country in rushing yards for a quarterback with 673 yards at 5.4 a crack with 9 running TDs. He’s also passed for 1,549 yards and 11 TDs. Shrader his 316/3.6/6 with 1,508 passing yards and 9 scores. While LeQuint Allen has averaged 4.6 yards per carry and his back-up Juwan Price 3.2. BC’s Kye Robichaux has averaged 5.0 and two other backs have averaged 5.2 and 4.7. And they love getting around the edges of defenses. The 3-3-5 is a road with a big shoulder.
- The Carrier Dome holds no horrors for the Eagles, who won here 33-29 in 1993, 24-23 in 1999, 16-7 in 2010, 42-14 in 2017, 58-27 in 2019 and 16-13 in 2020.
- With all the injuries we’ve had, we are a shadow of the team that started the season, just like we have been for years, regardless of who the coach was. We lost our last 9 games in 2005, 6 of our last 7 in 2006, our last four in 2007, three of our last four in 2009, our last 5 in 2011, 9 of our last ten in 2014, eight nine in 2015, our last four in 2016, our last five in 2017, our last eight in 2020, our last three in 2021 and six of our last seven in 2022. We are SU!
Stats that favor Boston College:
SCORING OFFENSE SU- 26.38 BC – 28.13
TOTAL OFFENSIVE YARDS SU- 366.4 BC – 421.3
OFFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 154 BC - 182
OFFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 146.1 BC – 215.6
OFFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 41.88 BC – 49.33
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS (extra points assumed) SU- 144/30= 4.8 BC – 156/28 = 5.6
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 26 BC - 8
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 52 BC - 34
TOTAL DEFENSIVE YARDS SU- 399.1 BC – 364.3
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 250.00 BC – 199.75
DEFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 172 BC - 147
DEFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 62.1 BC – 59.375
OPPONENT KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 7/42 = 16.7% BC – 16/41 = 39.02%
PUNT RETURNS SU- 8.15 BC – 10.50
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 15.62 BC –0.67
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 13/40 = 32.5% BC - 3/30 = 10.0%
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE SU- 8/11 = 72.7% BC – 10/12 = 83.33%
PUNTS RETURNED SU- 20/37 = 54.1% BC - 9/37 = 24.3%
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 2 BC - 0
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 27:04 BC – 31:20
COMMON OPPONENTS: Surprisingly at this stage of the season, only two: We beat Army 29-16. BC beat them 27-24. We got blown out by Florida State 3-41. BC barely lost to them 29-31. That’s a combined 32-57 for us and 56-55 for them. Rushing: Us 282-316, them 473-289. Passing: Us 385-489, them 356-327. Total Us: 664-805, them 829-616. First downs: Us 32-38, them 39-32. Turnovers: 3-2, them 2-3.
So 1 win and 1 loss each really doesn’t tell the story of these games.
Comments: BC scores more than we do because they rush for more yards than we do and get more first downs. They convert more third and fourth downs and do better in the red zone. They give up very few sacks, probably because they have a better offensive line and also because they have become primarily a running team. They’ve also had fewer TFLs, probably for the same reasons. They have given up fewer defensive yards because they hold onto the ball and because our pass defensive has become pretty bad. They’ve got amazing punt coverage and a small edge in place-kicking.
