Why Florida State will Win | Syracusefan.com

Why Florida State will Win

SWC75

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- Because they are Florida State and we aren’t. For a few years they weren’t and we even managed to beat them, 30-7 in 2018. The rest of the time we found ways to lose, 24-27 to a 7-6 team, 17-35 to a 6-7 team and 30-33 to a 5-7 team. Our 2020 team didn’t get to play their 3-6 team. But that’s all over, and Florida State is Florida State again. Sorry, Syracuse.

- They’ve won their last 11 games by a combined 465-216 (42-20) and are ranked 4th in the country behind mighty Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State, and I’m not sure they shouldn’t be ranked higher. The team that just beat us 7-40 is ranked a mere 12 and will be underdogs when they play the ‘Noles.

- But UNC did show how to beat Syracuse: bully them with a big, strong offensive line. Run the ball and complete short passes. Put together long drives and occasionally hit the Orange deep. The 3-3-5 isn’t built to stand up to that from a quality team.

- Meanwhile, our patch-up line can’t run the ball against a quality team and our receivers can’t make big plays. We can get the consistent plays to sustain drives and can’t get the big plays we used to blow out Colgate and Western Michigan. Our offense can’t stay on the field and our defense can’t get off of it, a bad combination.

- We are 17-73 against ranked teams on the road. We used to be 17-58 but we’ve lost 15 in a row. The last win was 19-14 at West Virginia 2010.

- Jared Verse will be smiling, glad he didn’t go play for THAT team.

Stats that favor Florida State:
SCORING OFFENSE SU- 33.0 FS – 42.4
OFFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 145.81 FS – 165.59
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS (extra points assumed) SU- 134/27= 5.0 FS – 124/20 = 6.2
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 16 FS - 6
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 34 FS - 17
DEFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 122 FS - 105
DEFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 6.57 FS- 7.01
DEFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 61.8 FS- 54.1
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH FOURTH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 38.1 FS – 35.7
KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 15.5 FS – 17.5
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE SU- 6/8 = 75.0% FS – 5/5 = 100.00%
40 YARDS + SU- 1/2 = 50.0% FS – 1/1 = 100.00%
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 2 FS - 0
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 27:32 FS – 29:39
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE SU- #31 FS - #6
(Everybody has their own system for this: I used this page as a source: NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings )
COMMON OPPONENTS: We lost to Clemson in the Dome 14-31. They beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime in their place.
Comments: They score more than we do, are more efficient passing and in the red zone. They have a much better offensive line. They’ve given up fewer first downs but that’s actually an illusion created by the fact that they’ve played 5 games and we’ve played 6. (6/5 x 105 = 126). They have a better pass defense and a better record getting off the field on 3rd and 4th down. They are a little better on those increasing rare kick-off returns and are better on place-kicks. They keep the ball a bit better, have played a stronger schedule and did better against Clemson than we did.

Other stats that were about even:
TOTAL OFFENSIVE YARDS SU- 422.2 FS – 432.2
OFFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 174.2 FS – 174.6
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 248.0 FS – 238.4
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 12.5 FS – 13.4
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 8.1 FS – 8.6
OFFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 64.7 FS – 64.0
BLOCKED KICKS ALLOWED SU- 0 FS - 0
(I’m assuming blocked kicks are placekicks and added them to blocked punts)
DEFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 241.0 FS – 238.8
DEFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS SU- 71/20 = 3.6 FS – 78/23 = 3.4
DEFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS SU- 2 FS - 2
PUNT RETURNS SU- 7.61 FS – 6.56
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 4/23 = 17.4% FS- 4/19 = 21.1%
NET PUNTING SU- 43.7 FS – 44.6
LONGEST FG SU- 46 FS - 48
TURNOVER MARGIN SU- +2 FS - +3
PENALTIES SU- 47/447yds FS - 39/395yds
Comments: The ‘even stats actually favor Florida State because they’ve played a tougher schedule than we have and one less game. That means they actually are better at gaining yards, especially passing yards, are probably better in the defensive red zone. However, they are actually penalized as much as we are (6/5 X 39 = 47).

One more thing: Last week’s numbers seemed to suggest we could compete with North Carolina. But we didn’t. Why Syracuse Will Win
 

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