SWC75
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Why North Carolina will win
- Drake Maye is the best quarterback anyone will face this year. Last year he had 38TD passes vs. 7 interceptions. This year he’s completed 73% of his passes. Those are numbers Garrett Shrader can only dream of.
- Rocky Long seemed between a rock and along place against Clemson: leave his D-backs on an island in man for man or let the other team pick apart his zone? Now Maye gets to throw to transfer Tez Walker, whom the NCAA is allowing to play beginning this game against us due to “additional information”, who Dino says has been clocked on film at a rate that would indicate that he’ll be the fastest player on the field. I had a dream last night that D’Marcus Adams turned the corner on a punt return only to be caught from behind by Tez Walker. It might be fun to see those two go step-by-step. Hopefully Walker won’t be on special teams or defense.
- “But Shrader will make up for that with his running.” Last year Maye ran for 698 yards, (3.8 per carry, including sacks) and 7 touchdowns. Shrader ran for 444 (3.0) with 9TDs. This year Garrett is well ahead 340 to 119 but Garrett once he got his bell rung against Clemson, started sliding to protect himself. I have a feeling his running might not be as big a factor the rest of the season.
- Their defense, while improved, still doesn’t have the numbers ours does but they are good enough that dreams of a shoot out where they can’t keep up due to our defense may be just that: dreams.
- If it comes to placekicking, they have the advantage, (see below). We have the advantage in punting. But this is an outside game, just like the Purdue game, where Jack Stonehouse first two efforts were not very good.
- I still remember our last visit to Chapel Hill, facing another Heisman candidate quarterback, Sam Howell. It did not go well:
We got beat 6-31. And it was the opener, so we were fully healthy.
Stats that favor North Carolina:
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 271.8 NC – 296.8
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 8.4 NC – 9.0
OFFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 64.0 NC – 72.7
OFFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 50.0 NC - 57.1
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS (extra points assumed) SU- 127/26= 4.9 NC – 107/19 = 5.6
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 15 NC - 9
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 31 NC - 21
KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 15.5 NC – 17.0
PUNT RETURNS SU- 7.2 NC – 40.5
(FG)40 YARDS + SU- 1/2 = 50.0% NC – 4/4 = 100.00%
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 2 NC - 0
PENALTIES SU- 40/394yds NC - 20/185yds
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 28:30 NC – 30:50
Both teams can pass. We go deep more and have a lower completion percentage. They do better converting 3rd and 4th down. They get more points in the red zone but we get there more. They clearly have a better offensive line. They get more on returns. That punt return number is from two returns in 11 punts. But they were 52 and 39 yards. His name is Alijah Huzzie. They have better placekicking, (17/17 XP, 6/7 FG and 4/4 from 40+). Dino said we have more penalties because we aren’t Army and play at a higher tempo. UNC isn’t Army, either and they have half our penalties.
- Drake Maye is the best quarterback anyone will face this year. Last year he had 38TD passes vs. 7 interceptions. This year he’s completed 73% of his passes. Those are numbers Garrett Shrader can only dream of.
- Rocky Long seemed between a rock and along place against Clemson: leave his D-backs on an island in man for man or let the other team pick apart his zone? Now Maye gets to throw to transfer Tez Walker, whom the NCAA is allowing to play beginning this game against us due to “additional information”, who Dino says has been clocked on film at a rate that would indicate that he’ll be the fastest player on the field. I had a dream last night that D’Marcus Adams turned the corner on a punt return only to be caught from behind by Tez Walker. It might be fun to see those two go step-by-step. Hopefully Walker won’t be on special teams or defense.
- “But Shrader will make up for that with his running.” Last year Maye ran for 698 yards, (3.8 per carry, including sacks) and 7 touchdowns. Shrader ran for 444 (3.0) with 9TDs. This year Garrett is well ahead 340 to 119 but Garrett once he got his bell rung against Clemson, started sliding to protect himself. I have a feeling his running might not be as big a factor the rest of the season.
- Their defense, while improved, still doesn’t have the numbers ours does but they are good enough that dreams of a shoot out where they can’t keep up due to our defense may be just that: dreams.
- If it comes to placekicking, they have the advantage, (see below). We have the advantage in punting. But this is an outside game, just like the Purdue game, where Jack Stonehouse first two efforts were not very good.
- I still remember our last visit to Chapel Hill, facing another Heisman candidate quarterback, Sam Howell. It did not go well:
We got beat 6-31. And it was the opener, so we were fully healthy.
Stats that favor North Carolina:
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS SU- 271.8 NC – 296.8
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 8.4 NC – 9.0
OFFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 64.0 NC – 72.7
OFFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 50.0 NC - 57.1
OFFENSIVE RED ZONE POINTS (extra points assumed) SU- 127/26= 4.9 NC – 107/19 = 5.6
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 15 NC - 9
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 31 NC - 21
KICKOFF RETURNS SU- 15.5 NC – 17.0
PUNT RETURNS SU- 7.2 NC – 40.5
(FG)40 YARDS + SU- 1/2 = 50.0% NC – 4/4 = 100.00%
EXTRA POINTS MISSED SU- 2 NC - 0
PENALTIES SU- 40/394yds NC - 20/185yds
TIME OF POSSESSION SU- 28:30 NC – 30:50
Both teams can pass. We go deep more and have a lower completion percentage. They do better converting 3rd and 4th down. They get more points in the red zone but we get there more. They clearly have a better offensive line. They get more on returns. That punt return number is from two returns in 11 punts. But they were 52 and 39 yards. His name is Alijah Huzzie. They have better placekicking, (17/17 XP, 6/7 FG and 4/4 from 40+). Dino said we have more penalties because we aren’t Army and play at a higher tempo. UNC isn’t Army, either and they have half our penalties.
