Why Syracuse will win | Syracusefan.com

Why Syracuse will win

SWC75

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- Stats that favor Syracuse:
Scoring offense: 40.6 (10th) vs. 33.0 (35th)
Total offense: 459.6 (24th) vs. 408.7 (62nd)
First Downs: 254 (34rd) vs. 215 (90th)
Rushing Offense: 207.3 (32nd) vs. 196.7 (46th) (That’s right: we’ve out-rushed Boston College: We’ve averaged 4.57 yards per carry to 4.11 for them)
Passing yards 252.4 (45th) vs. 212.0 (85th)
Offensive third down conversions: .392 (66th) vs. .337 (115th)
Offensive fourth down conversions: .563 (55th) vs. .500 (72nd) (defensive was tied: .500 and 53rd)
Red Zone offense: .877 (35th) vs. .865 (45th) (SU: 282 points in 65 trips: 4.34 BC: 177 points in 37 trips: 4.78)
Fumbles Lost: 6 (33rd) vs. 8 (67th)
Turnover Margin: +11 (8th) vs. +10 (9th)
Fumbles recovered: 11 (10th) vs. 8 (46th)
Time of possession 30.0 (71st) vs. 28.0 (99th)
Defensive third down conversions: .274 (5th) vs. .362 (41st)
First Downs on defense: 223 (61st) vs. 228 (69th)
Sacks: 35 (11th) vs. 31 (20th)
Tackles for loss: 79 (28th) vs. 72 (46th)
Net Punting: 39.79 (25th) vs. 33.73 (122nd)
Punt returns: 14.95 (16th) vs. 13.68 (21st)
Kick-off return defense: 15.3 (4th) vs. 21.05 (78th)
Blocked Kicks allowed: 0 (1st) vs. 4 (116th)
We have flashy offensive numbers but theirs are pretty strong, too. If we were scoring 33 per game, that’s something I would have regarded as a significant improvement over past years. What’s amazing is that we’ve out-rushed them, both in total yards and average per carry. The key, as Dino has stated is: can you run the ball when you really want to, i.e. when the defense expects it. The defense expects it all the rime vs. Boston College. There are significant differences in both offense and defensive third down conversations. That could be a big stat. Again the red Zone numbers reverse when you use my metric: they score touchdowns. We settle for field goals too many times. We have no significant advantage in turnover margin. (Of course we did going into last week’s game and look how that turned out.) We have a big margin in net punting, (although Hofrichter has to make a comeback from last week). They are a lot more vulnerable to kickoff returns and have given up 4 blocked kicks, so that stat could mean big plays for either team.

- A. J. Dillon and quarterback Antonio Brown, who turned this program around from their disastrous 2015 season, when the Eagles went winless in the ACC and almost cost Steve Addazio his job are nursing ankle and groin injuries. That didn’t prevent them from playing again Florida State but they are not 100%. (I guess no one is in November.)

- From Nunes: “Can Syracuse continue to blitz effectively? In a match-up in the Orange’s favor, the Eagles are 107th versus the blitz. Syracuse’s defense is second in the country, hold offenses to just 16.2%. You take an offense that struggles to pass when SU knows they’re going to pass and can’t handle a blitz? Brian Ward is salivating, as are Kendall Coleman and Alton Robinson — who have a combined 16 sacks on the year.”

- If we can match them on the ground and keep our defense off the field, we can match them in the air as well.

- Also from Nunes: “Boston College has the 36th best passing defense in the country, but they’re only 62nd in limiting explosive plays. While they may be able to stop a lot of ‘Cuse offense, they won’t be able to stop big plays if the Orange keep testing the Eagles. The question is: will the Orange be able to set these plays up? DeVito can hit the deep ball, but it’s far too telegraphed (at least what we saw versus Notre Dame) to surprise BC and take advantage.” Give Tommy a week to prepare with the #1 receivers and watching BC film and this could something we could exploit. The DeVito Era may truly begin tomorrow.

- If our special teams returns to its former effectiveness, (it may help that we’re in a football stadium, not a baseball stadium), we can regain the advantage in field position that has dominate d our season. We could gain yardage with each punt, bottle up their kick returns and maybe get a few of our own and perhaps block a kick. That could carry us to victory.

- Alumni Field has not always been a house of horrors for us over the years: 1961 28-13; 1966 30-0; 1978 37-24; 1988 45-20; 1990 35-6; 1992 27-10; 1996 45-17; 1998 42-25; 2004 43-17; 2016: 28-20

- 2017: NC State 33 Syracuse 25; 2018: Syracuse 51 NC State 41; 2017: Florida State 27 Syracuse 24; 2018: Syracuse 30 Florida State 7; 2017: Wake Forest 64 Syracuse 43; 2018: Syracuse 41 Wake Forest 24; 2017: Louisville 56 Syracuse 10; 2018 Syracuse 54 Louisville 23. We’ve beaten every team we lost to last year that we played again this year. The revenge tour continues….

8-3 and 2 to do!

LET’S GO ORANGE!!!
 

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