SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Sorry to be a Debbie Downer, but I just think this is the wrong team at the wrong time for us to play. Teams facing adversity come apart or they come together and UNLV came together when they lost their quarterback and one of the running backs they use, amid all the controversy over what was promised to whom. They destroyed Fresno State, usually pretty good football program. They want us next, on national TV, to show the football world that they have arrived. I just think our team lacks the confidence, (or the DART), to rise up to the level of energy and focus needed to beat this team. Kyle McCord has it and some of his receivers have it but not the rest of the team.
- We just do not match-up well with this team. I think our defense lacks the discipline -and the linebackers- to cover their option game and the long pass at the same time. I don’t think we can protect McCord from their pass rush. We won’t have much of a running game, either. They can kick field goals. We can’t. We’ve had 4 kicks blocked. They have blocked 4 kicks and will have a feeding frenzy when they look at the films.
- They have an all-American receiver (Rickey White), with 20 catches for 253 yards and 5 scores. Per their play-by-play guy in an interview I heard this afternoon, he hasn’t even “broken out” yet. He had 80/1314/7 last year. And their other top receiver, Jacob DeJesus, may be as good. As Haij-Malik Williams plays more, he and they will keep getting better.
- Our star receiver, Oronde Gadsden, has 3 catches in two games. Our star edge rusher/linebacker, Fadil Diggs, had no tackles in the last game. When I asked about that, the response was that they were “double covered”. Great players find ways to make plays anyway. We will need big games from our best players to have a chance in this game.
- This is our first game away from the Dome. UNLV will be most comfortable in Allegiant Stadium.
- The dark side of me remembers two games from recent years. One is the game in Atlanta against Georgia Tech in 2013 where Scott Shafer couldn’t figure out how to defend Paul Johnson’s offense, (or to score on his defense):
- The other one is the 2019 Maryland game when a determined Maryland team shocked an over-confident Syracuse team. I don’t think this Syracuse team is over-confident. I think they have the opposite problem but the result could be similar:
Syracuse vs. Maryland Football Highlights (2019)
Stats that favor UNLV:
SCORING OFFENSE SU- 33.75 LV – 45.25
OFFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 102.80 LV – 283.00
OFFENSIVE AVERAGE ON RUNNING PLAYS (- sacks) SU- 4.55 LV – 6.025
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 12.84 LV – 15.89
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 8.23 LV – 8.78
OFFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 153.24 LV – 170.29
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 11 LV - 4
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 23 LV - 19
BLOCKED KICKS ALLOWED SU- 4 LV - 1
(I’m assuming blocked kicks are placekicks and added them to blocked punts. The NCAA stats say we’ve had two blocked kicks and one blocked punt. I remember a blocked kick and a blocked punt vs. Georgia Tech and blocked field goal vs. Holy Cross. I don’t recall the other blocked kick but I put it in the above stat anyway because the NCAA had it.)
SCORING DEFENSE SU- 22.50 LV – 13.75
TOTAL DEFENSIVE YARDS SU- 343.80 LV – 309.50
DEFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 18.50 LV – 17.00
DEFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 139.00 LV – 83.50
DEFENSIVE AVERAGE ON RUNNING PLAYS ( - SACKS) SU – 5.50 LV – 4.16
DEFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 116.91 LV – 107.19
DEFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 62.50 LV – 56.73
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 33.33 LV – 27.42
SACKS SU- 9 LV - 13
TACKLES FOR A LOSS SU- 27 LV – 31
BLOCKED KICKS SU - 0 LV - 4
OPPONENT KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 6/19 = 31.58% LV – 7/12 = 58.33%
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 2.67 LV – 0.50
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 8/21 = 38.10% LV - 7/24 = 29.17%
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE SU- 3/7 = 42.86% LV – 9/11 = 81.81%
LONGEST FG SU- 33 LV - 45
40 YARDS + SU- 0/3 = 00.00% LV – 2/2 = 100.00%
TURNOVER MARGIN SU- 5/4 = -1 LV - 2/10 = +8
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE SU- #84 LV - #49
(Everybody has their own system for this: I used this page as a source: NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings For Holy Cross, I used this guy’s ranking: Brian's 2024 College Football FCS Power Ratings )
The Rebels lead us in 28 stats to our 11 and their SOS is well above ours. I just think this is a horrible match-up for us. They are an aggressive, ambitious team peaking right now that wants to bring down a power conference team to strengthen their resume as they drive for the playoffs. We are a team that hasn’t found itself yet. They have an offense that combines the triple option with deep throws. That requires great defensive discipline. We didn’t exactly show that vs. Holy Cross. UNLV’s running game will enable them to dominate the ball and keep Kyle McCord off the field.
The Rebel’s passing stats are mostly Matthew Sluka’s numbers: 21 for 48 (43.71%) for 318 yards (15.14 per completion, 6.625 per attempts with 6TDs, 1 interception and a passer rating of 136.48. Haij-Maliik Williams is 13/16 (81.25%) for 182 yards (14.00/11.375) with 3TDs, 0 picks and a passer rating of 238.68. They have more sacks and TFLs and have given up fewer. We’ve had 4 blocked kicks and they have blocked 4 kicks. And they saw the film of our blocked kicks and will be coming after us. They are much better at kicking field goals.
Ugh!
- We just do not match-up well with this team. I think our defense lacks the discipline -and the linebackers- to cover their option game and the long pass at the same time. I don’t think we can protect McCord from their pass rush. We won’t have much of a running game, either. They can kick field goals. We can’t. We’ve had 4 kicks blocked. They have blocked 4 kicks and will have a feeding frenzy when they look at the films.
- They have an all-American receiver (Rickey White), with 20 catches for 253 yards and 5 scores. Per their play-by-play guy in an interview I heard this afternoon, he hasn’t even “broken out” yet. He had 80/1314/7 last year. And their other top receiver, Jacob DeJesus, may be as good. As Haij-Malik Williams plays more, he and they will keep getting better.
- Our star receiver, Oronde Gadsden, has 3 catches in two games. Our star edge rusher/linebacker, Fadil Diggs, had no tackles in the last game. When I asked about that, the response was that they were “double covered”. Great players find ways to make plays anyway. We will need big games from our best players to have a chance in this game.
- This is our first game away from the Dome. UNLV will be most comfortable in Allegiant Stadium.
- The dark side of me remembers two games from recent years. One is the game in Atlanta against Georgia Tech in 2013 where Scott Shafer couldn’t figure out how to defend Paul Johnson’s offense, (or to score on his defense):
- The other one is the 2019 Maryland game when a determined Maryland team shocked an over-confident Syracuse team. I don’t think this Syracuse team is over-confident. I think they have the opposite problem but the result could be similar:
Syracuse vs. Maryland Football Highlights (2019)
Stats that favor UNLV:
SCORING OFFENSE SU- 33.75 LV – 45.25
OFFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 102.80 LV – 283.00
OFFENSIVE AVERAGE ON RUNNING PLAYS (- sacks) SU- 4.55 LV – 6.025
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION SU- 12.84 LV – 15.89
OFFENSIVE PASSING YARDS PER ATTEMPT SU- 8.23 LV – 8.78
OFFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 153.24 LV – 170.29
SACKS ALLOWED SU- 11 LV - 4
TACKLES FOR A LOSS ALLOWED SU- 23 LV - 19
BLOCKED KICKS ALLOWED SU- 4 LV - 1
(I’m assuming blocked kicks are placekicks and added them to blocked punts. The NCAA stats say we’ve had two blocked kicks and one blocked punt. I remember a blocked kick and a blocked punt vs. Georgia Tech and blocked field goal vs. Holy Cross. I don’t recall the other blocked kick but I put it in the above stat anyway because the NCAA had it.)
SCORING DEFENSE SU- 22.50 LV – 13.75
TOTAL DEFENSIVE YARDS SU- 343.80 LV – 309.50
DEFENSIVE FIRST DOWNS SU- 18.50 LV – 17.00
DEFENSIVE RUSHING YARDS SU- 139.00 LV – 83.50
DEFENSIVE AVERAGE ON RUNNING PLAYS ( - SACKS) SU – 5.50 LV – 4.16
DEFENSIVE PASSING EFFICIENCY SU- 116.91 LV – 107.19
DEFENSIVE COMPLETION PERCENTAGE SU- 62.50 LV – 56.73
DEFENSIVE 3RD AND 4TH DOWN PERCENTAGE SU- 33.33 LV – 27.42
SACKS SU- 9 LV - 13
TACKLES FOR A LOSS SU- 27 LV – 31
BLOCKED KICKS SU - 0 LV - 4
OPPONENT KICKOFFS THAT WERE RETURNED SU- 6/19 = 31.58% LV – 7/12 = 58.33%
OPPONENT PUNT RETURNS SU- 2.67 LV – 0.50
OPPONENT PUNTS RETURNED SU- 8/21 = 38.10% LV - 7/24 = 29.17%
FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE SU- 3/7 = 42.86% LV – 9/11 = 81.81%
LONGEST FG SU- 33 LV - 45
40 YARDS + SU- 0/3 = 00.00% LV – 2/2 = 100.00%
TURNOVER MARGIN SU- 5/4 = -1 LV - 2/10 = +8
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE SU- #84 LV - #49
(Everybody has their own system for this: I used this page as a source: NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings For Holy Cross, I used this guy’s ranking: Brian's 2024 College Football FCS Power Ratings )
The Rebels lead us in 28 stats to our 11 and their SOS is well above ours. I just think this is a horrible match-up for us. They are an aggressive, ambitious team peaking right now that wants to bring down a power conference team to strengthen their resume as they drive for the playoffs. We are a team that hasn’t found itself yet. They have an offense that combines the triple option with deep throws. That requires great defensive discipline. We didn’t exactly show that vs. Holy Cross. UNLV’s running game will enable them to dominate the ball and keep Kyle McCord off the field.
The Rebel’s passing stats are mostly Matthew Sluka’s numbers: 21 for 48 (43.71%) for 318 yards (15.14 per completion, 6.625 per attempts with 6TDs, 1 interception and a passer rating of 136.48. Haij-Maliik Williams is 13/16 (81.25%) for 182 yards (14.00/11.375) with 3TDs, 0 picks and a passer rating of 238.68. They have more sacks and TFLs and have given up fewer. We’ve had 4 blocked kicks and they have blocked 4 kicks. And they saw the film of our blocked kicks and will be coming after us. They are much better at kicking field goals.
Ugh!
