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[QUOTE="pokercuse08, post: 4961847, member: 6535"]
It's not just about time, you're also trading possession. The average possession is worth X points. I'm just going to pull some numbers out of my butt to illustrate the point.

For simplicity sake, let's say a shot is worth 1 point - we make 50% of twos or 33% of threes. Let's call the offensive rebounding percentage 33% on a regular shot and 15% on a free throw.

So on a regular shot, we're generating 1 point and a 33% chance at another possession. That possession is worth about 1 point, plus the chance of another, etc, etc. Let's just say every time a shot goes up, we end up generating like 1.5 points before losing possession.

So we need to shoot a high enough free throw percentage to overcome the fact that we're losing possession like 95% of the time (all made second free throws, 85% of missed second free throws). Ballpark, we probably need to shoot like 70% on free throws for them to be better than a regular shot.

Obviously there are other benefits to generating fouls on opponents, so you'd have to account for that too, but there's a reason Hack-a-Shaq is a strategy, and it's not that everyone doing it is stupid.
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