Will the BE get 10 teams in the NCAA?

[EastCoast2]

#2 Syracuse16-1--29-1
#7 Marquette13-4324-6
#12 Georgetown12-5422-6
#19 Notre Dame12-5420-10
South Florida12-5419-11
Cincinnati11-6521-9
#18 Louisville10-7622-8
Seton Hall8-9819-10
West Virginia8-9818-12
Connecticut7-10917-12

 

[Marsh01]

#2 Syracuse16-1--29-1
#7 Marquette13-4324-6
#12 Georgetown12-5422-6
#19 Notre Dame12-5420-10
South Florida12-5419-11
Cincinnati11-6521-9
#18 Louisville10-7622-8
Seton Hall8-9819-10
West Virginia8-9818-12
Connecticut7-10917-12

I think when it is all said and done they get 9. I dont think that both Uconn and WVU get in. Basically its in the hands of Wichita State and Creighton and Murray State and teams that are locks that need to win their conference tourneys. If one or more of these teams do not win it then that pops a bubble.

Northwestern losing tonight was very good for Uconn. They also need to root for UNLV to beat Colorado State tonight.

 

[pearl31]

No, not 10.

 

[EastCoast2]

This may be the year where every 20 win team gets in

 

[bpo57]

#2 Syracuse16-1--29-1
#7 Marquette13-4324-6
#12 Georgetown12-5422-6
#19 Notre Dame12-5420-10
South Florida12-5419-11
Cincinnati11-6521-9
#18 Louisville10-7622-8
Seton Hall8-9819-10
West Virginia8-9818-12
Connecticut7-10917-12

About a 1 in 10 chance of that happening.

 

[CorduroyG]

8 max

 

[EastCoast2]

About a 1 in 10 chance of that happening.

My odds for making the tournament:
Syracuse 29-1 100%
Marquette 24-6 100%
Georgetown 22-6 100%
Notre Dame 20-10 100%
South Florida 19-11 75%
Cincinnati 21-9 90%
Louisville 22-8 100%
Seton Hall 19-10 70%
West Virginia 18-12 50%
Connecticut 17-12 50%

 

[Niastri]

Only a bunch of easily won games are between the Big East and getting 10 bids. Today, Cinci and USF got huge boosts winning games they were expected to lose.

All five teams still on the bubble can get in, with the worst off teams, UConn and Seton Hall/WVU get very winnable first round games that get them extra wins. This is the real reason for the format, trying to give the bubble teams chances to get additional wins to push them into the tournament. It will probably work as long as the bottom half of the Big East is good enough to be on the bubble. Probably not long after Syracuse and Pitt are gone, it won't matter much.

 

[bpo57]

Only a bunch of easily won games are between the Big East and getting 10 bids. Today, Cinci and USF got huge boosts winning games they were expected to lose.

All five teams still on the bubble can get in, with the worst off teams, UConn and Seton Hall/WVU get very winnable first round games that get them extra wins. This is the real reason for the format, trying to give the bubble teams chances to get additional wins to push them into the tournament. It will probably work as long as the bottom half of the Big East is good enough to be on the bubble. Probably not long after Syracuse and Pitt are gone, it won't matter much.

I agree with you on the rationale for the BET format but there is very little likelihood of ten getting into the NCAAs. Math just doesn't work. The only way ten happens is if there are zero tournament surprise champions (good luck with that!) and some other power conferences get hosed in order to fit ten BE teams in. Don't see it. Committee would never admit it but after last year's debacle with the BE they might be gun shy about going that route again.

 

[orange2win]

And how many will the ACC get in????

 

[Marsh01]

And how many will the ACC get in????

Probably 5. Duke, UNC, Fla St, Virginia and either NIT State or Miami

 

[Niastri]

BPO, I have a thread evaluating each bubble teams chances, and I see how each of them could get in, but only with a few more wins... The teams with the worst chances coming into today (Cinci and South Florida) both beat top20 (Both RPI and Poll) teams. UConn seems intent on taking the NCAA tourney off this year, but still with only a win or two, UConn is in. Seton Hall only has to beat DePaul to get to 20 wins and .500 in the second best conference, with an RPI and SOS that are respectable. Either WVU or South Florida gets a good win over another bubble team. Whoever loses this game still has a bonus round in the BET and a shot at a good team for a money win in the second round.

Every team has a shot at the BET, and only needs a few wins to get there.

 

[bpo57]

Probably 5. Duke, UNC, Fla St, Virginia and either NIT State or Miami

Yep. which is one more than the ACC received last year.

 

[bpo57]

BPO, I have a thread evaluating each bubble teams chances, and I see how each of them could get in, but only with a few more wins... The teams with the worst chances coming into today (Cinci and South Florida) both beat top20 (Both RPI and Poll) teams. UConn seems intent on taking the NCAA tourney off this year, but still with only a win or two, UConn is in. Seton Hall only has to beat DePaul to get to 20 wins and .500 in the second best conference, with an RPI and SOS that are respectable. Either WVU or South Florida gets a good win over another bubble team. Whoever loses this game still has a bonus round in the BET and a shot at a good team for a money win in the second round.

Every team has a shot at the BET, and only needs a few wins to get there.

I read that thread. I just think getting ten in is the equivalent of drawing an inside straight. It's tough and unlikely. Highly likely that one of UConn, WVa and SHU flames out quickly with one or no wins in the BET. The respective resumes of all three of those teams are just very unimpressive. I'll make you a gentleman's bet that the BE gets no more than eight. I actually think there is a better chance they get seven than they get 10. I just have a gut feeling that there are gonna be some crazy upsets that screw everything up.

 

[OrangeCrush22]

7 or 8 Big East teams.

 

[Niastri]

I think seven is very unlikely. I see a lot of likely teams and five locks this year. Before today, I would have felt bad about taking that bet. With both Cinci and USF beating top20 teams, I would guess 8, as the imaginary cap is back in place, and they will take ANY team aside from the one team that breaks the brackets.

In three years when every BCS conference has 16, no such limit will restrict teams from getting in, and second round meetings of conference mates might be common, but the Big East might not exist at that time.

I think it is likely that UConn flames out entirely. Losing to Providence was embarrassing and maybe season killing. They put too much emotion in the against us. One of USF or WVU has to lose that game... Every other game on the schedule and the BET layout gives 8+ bids a chance. UConn has the number one SOS and is still 35 in RPI. Remember that there are 38 At Large bids. A 35 RPI will always get in. Their worst loss was at Providence this week, but they have a stellar OOC record. They have a chance to get a win against Pitt to secure a bid and then have some BET games against weak competition. Then there is the X factor of the committee not wanting to leave out last years champion. There is a reason these meetings are secret. I think UConn gets in, maybe even if they lose out, just because of their SOS. But I don't think that happens if another Big East team is the one that gets knocked out.

As a conference, we need a lot of bubble team victories over bad teams, and then some good bounces in the BET. 10 is a strong possibility. Would I bet on 10-1 odds? 100-1? Definitely. I think 8 bids is a lock, but it will be much harder to get to 9 if any team is nearly good enough to knock us out, because then the Big East could get too much of the Sweet 16, and they will put us all against each other in the second round.

EDIT, one last thing: The second ranked conference has usually gotten half or more of its teams. With the Big East being there, we have a chance of knocking out mid level BCS teams from lesser conferences.

 

[jncuse]

This is the real reason for the format, trying to give the bubble teams chances to get additional wins to push them into the tournament. It will probably work as long as the bottom half of the Big East is good enough to be on the bubble. Probably not long after Syracuse and Pitt are gone, it won't matter much.

Disagree. Teams playing in the first round. basically can only hurt their resume.

Once your on the bubble and being discussed by the committee an additional cheap win will be meaningless to the discussion.

Say UConn plays St John's. Does it help RPI? Nope. Does it help the eye test? Nope, its a game they should win. Does it help top 50 or top 100 record? Nope. But if they lose, its a bad loss and that will certainly be noticed by the committee.

Now UConn might get after it beatz St. John's -- but not because they won, but only because they did not take a hit to their resume that they could not absorb. Basically they would be better if the game never happened.

 

[Niastri]

Disagree. Teams playing in the first round. basically can only hurt their resume.

Once your on the bubble and being discussed by the committee an additional cheap win will be meaningless to the discussion.

Say UConn plays St John's. Does it help RPI? Nope. Does it help the eye test? Nope, its a game they should win. Does it help top 50 or top 100 record? Nope. But if they lose, its a bad loss and that will certainly be noticed by the committee.

Now UConn might get after it beatz St. John's -- but not because they won, but only because they did not take a hit to their resume that they could not absorb. Basically they would be better if the game never happened.

Every win matters when you are on the bubble. Every team we are talking about is in that fine print portion that makes or breaks a team every season.

 

[orange79]

Easily see 8, probably 9, 10 is doubtful (but still possible if everything breaks right in other tournaments).

 

[bpo57]

Disagree. Teams playing in the first round. basically can only hurt their resume.

Once your on the bubble and being discussed by the committee an additional cheap win will be meaningless to the discussion.

Say UConn plays St John's. Does it help RPI? Nope. Does it help the eye test? Nope, its a game they should win. Does it help top 50 or top 100 record? Nope. But if they lose, its a bad loss and that will certainly be noticed by the committee.

Now UConn might get after it beatz St. John's -- but not because they won, but only because they did not take a hit to their resume that they could not absorb. Basically they would be better if the game never happened.

Hard to argue with your logic.

 

[bpo57]

I think seven is very unlikely. I see a lot of likely teams and five locks this year. Before today, I would have felt bad about taking that bet. With both Cinci and USF beating top20 teams, I would guess 8, as the imaginary cap is back in place, and they will take ANY team aside from the one team that breaks the brackets.

In three years when every BCS conference has 16, no such limit will restrict teams from getting in, and second round meetings of conference mates might be common, but the Big East might not exist at that time.

I think it is likely that UConn flames out entirely. Losing to Providence was embarrassing and maybe season killing. They put too much emotion in the against us. One of USF or WVU has to lose that game... Every other game on the schedule and the BET layout gives 8+ bids a chance. UConn has the number one SOS and is still 35 in RPI. Remember that there are 38 At Large bids. A 35 RPI will always get in. Their worst loss was at Providence this week, but they have a stellar OOC record. They have a chance to get a win against Pitt to secure a bid and then have some BET games against weak competition. Then there is the X factor of the committee not wanting to leave out last years champion. There is a reason these meetings are secret. I think UConn gets in, maybe even if they lose out, just because of their SOS. But I don't think that happens if another Big East team is the one that gets knocked out.

As a conference, we need a lot of bubble team victories over bad teams, and then some good bounces in the BET. 10 is a strong possibility. Would I bet on 10-1 odds? 100-1? Definitely. I think 8 bids is a lock, but it will be much harder to get to 9 if any team is nearly good enough to knock us out, because then the Big East could get too much of the Sweet 16, and they will put us all against each other in the second round.

EDIT, one last thing: The second ranked conference has usually gotten half or more of its teams. With the Big East being there, we have a chance of knocking out mid level BCS teams from lesser conferences.

UConn's stellar record OOC basically consists of wins against Harvard and FSU. I have no idea why their schedule is considered the strongest in the country. That 35 rpi is a joke but at least it's moving in the right direction. A week ago they were in the top 25. I would lay even money all day long that the BE gets no more than eight and I would lay 5 to 1 odds that the BE does not get ten.

 

[arrow2arinzesknee]

I see 9, UCONN or WVU is in trouble after last night.

USF has to get in now, and if they beat WVU how can u take a team that is 13-5 or even 12-6 in a top 3 conference and leave them out? they played us tough on the road, just beat a top 20 on the road and have stepped up to the challenge

Cincinnati just got a massive win that effectively puts them in.

are the Georgetown and Kansas St wins enough for WVU? I don't think so, but if they play well in NYC and beat a top flight team, then you have to consider them

Seton Hall is in trouble to I think, if they had beaten Rutgers they would be on a upward trend but that loss at home really hurt. They have one good win (Georgetown) and there win against UCONN gets worse and worse every day.

UCONN just has collapsed completely and a loss to Pitt (very possible) I think keeps them out

 

[orange79]

UConn's stellar record OOC basically consists of wins against Harvard and FSU. I have no idea why their schedule is considered the strongest in the country. That 35 rpi is a joke but at least it's moving in the right direction. A week ago they were in the top 25. I would lay even money all day long that the BE gets no more than eight and I would lay 5 to 1 odds that the BE does not get ten.

This really isn't so hard. They have played 12 games against the Top 50, going 5-7. WV just slipped to 52. If they were 2 spots higher, UConn would have played 13 games vs. the Top 50, going 6-7. UNC doesn't have 6 Top 50 wins. Only 13 out of the Top 20 RPI teams have 6 Top 50 wins. They have only played 3 teams whose RPI is > 200. SU has played 6.

Their RPI is not a joke, as much as you would like it to be.

 

[omniorange]

The bubble is horrible this year.

There are basically 11 teams fighting for 8 spots. After last night's wins, I think Cincy and USF are now in.

If we assume one of those 8 spots is taken by some upset in the mid-major rank tournies then it is 11 teams fighting for 7 spots.

This leaves UConn, Seton Hall, and WVU fighting with BYU, Miami, Miss. St., Northwestern, Texas, VCU, Washington, and Xavier for an at-large.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[longislandcuse]

This really isn't so hard. They have played 12 games against the Top 50, going 5-7. WV just slipped to 52. If they were 2 spots higher, UConn would have played 13 games vs. the Top 50, going 6-7. UNC doesn't have 6 Top 50 wins. Only 13 out of the Top 20 RPI teams have 6 Top 50 wins. They have only played 3 teams whose RPI is > 200. SU has played 6.

Their RPI is not a joke, as much as you would like it to be.

I think alot of us dont add Syracuse into the equation since we look at who UCONN played outside of us. They've played the #2 team in the country twice this year. That alone will skyrocket their RPI.